From 'Vote Katua' to Kingmaker? Chirag's return stirs unease in NDA ahead of Bihar polls

With Chirag Paswan hinting at contesting the upcoming Bihar elections, 'Chirag for CM' posters coming up across the state, and reports of his party demanding 33 seats, an eerie unease returns to the NDA, similar to the one witnessed during the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. Chirag aims to restore the past glory of the party and throw in his hat for the Chief Ministership in the state, staring at the political vacuum in a post-Nitish era. With the BJP still struggling to create a pan-state leader, this would pitch him in a direct battle with Tejashwi Yadav, party strategists feel.advertisementThe 2020 Chacha-Bhatija SagaChirag Paswan, unhappy at being denied 30 seats in the alliance, decided to contest on a standalone basis. To the utter surprise of everyone, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) put up candidates against the JDU and not against the BJP, ostensibly at the behest of the saffron party, even fielding some rebels of the saffron party.
The strategy allegedly was to weaken Nitish Kumar while at the same time crowding out the opposition and damaging Mahagathbandhan's (MGB) prospects by bagging a section of anti-NDA votes. In a very close election where NDA and MGB were tied at around 37 per cent vote share, NDA edged out MGB 125-110 in assembly strength of 243.advertisement
LJP(R) candidates received a higher number of votes than the victory margin in 73 of the 137 seats contested, damaging the prospects of NDA in 40, MGB in 32 and Others in 1 seat. Chirag specifically targeted JD(U), bagging a section of BJP voters unhappy with its decision to continue to project Nitish as chief minister.LJP(R) was largely responsible for bringing down JDU's tally from 71 in 2015 to 43 in 2020. LJP(R) damaged JDU in 33 seats. In the 28 seats where JDU was runner-up, LJP(R) got more votes than the margin of victory. On five seats, it pushed JDU to the third spot, emerging as runner-up. While the party could win just one seat, it played spoilsport to the JDU.Root cause of JDU-LJP(R) riftLJP(R) is eyeing more seats to take advantage of a weakening JDU and the fragile health of Nitish. There is a strong historical reason for the unease in the relationship between the two parties. In its first election in Bihar in March 2005, LJP(R) emerged as the choice of Dalits, bagging a 12 per cent vote share and winning 29 seats, forcing a hung assembly. In the elections which followed in six months, while LJP(R) more or less retained the vote share, its tally fell to 10 seats, resulting in the onset of the Nitish era.
The Dalit population in Bihar was 16 per cent as per the 2011 census. Acting on recommendations of the State Mahadalit Commission, Nitish created a separate category for marginalized SCs in 2007 in a bid to cultivate his constituency among them and politically weaken Ram Vilas Paswan (Chirag's late father).All Scheduled Caste groups accounting for 10 per cent of the population were included under Mahadalits, leaving out only the Paswans or Dusadhs accounting for 6 per cent. Since this move, the LJP(R)'s vote share has halved from 11 per cent in 2005 to 7 per cent in 2010 and further to 6 per cent in 2020. Its seat tally has declined from 29 in 2005 to 3 in 2010 and then to just 1 in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. The LJP(R)'s clout has declined in the Nitish era as he emerged as the leader of Mahadalits, restricting Paswan's hold to just their community.advertisementLJP(R)'s contrasting poll fortunesLJP(R) exhibits contrasting performance in Bihar. Its tally has been reduced from three in 2010 to just one in 2020 state elections, highlighting inconsistency in its alliance strategy. In 2010, it contested with the RJD. In 2015, it shifted to a BJP-led alliance, while in 2020, it contested alone, rebelling from the NDA, or rebelling from part of the NDA.
In the Lok Sabha elections, on the other hand, it has achieved a 100 per cent / near 100 per cent strike rate. It won 6/7 seats in 2014 as an NDA ally, 6/6 in 2019 and 5/5 in 2024, riding on the Modi wave during this period. Chirag's father, called a political mausam vaigyanik, shifted to NDA from UPA before the 2014 general elections, sensing public mood in favour of Modi.Lessons from 2020 DebacleThe lesson for Chirag after the 2020 debacle is that he cannot risk dabbling alone again in 2025. He was labelled a vote katua party during 2020. He needs to stick with the alliance to win a handful of seats and regain relevance in state politics.advertisementThis is why, despite overzealous party workers, Chirag has clearly mentioned that there is no vacancy for the CM post in NDA, Nitish would continue to be the CM face, and that he is not throwing his hat in the ring. At the same time, he is aware that the LJP(R) brings an extra 6 per cent of votes to the alliance, and is looking to leverage it in seat distribution talks.The party's goal is to reclaim the past glory under the late Ram Vilas Paswan in state politics and equal the best-ever 12.6 per cent vote share, emerging as the choice of the entire SC community and not only Paswans/Dusadhs, which account for 5.31 per cent of population as per Bihar Caste Survey. The BJP has given an NOC to the LJP(R)'s desire to field Chirag as a candidate and that too from a general seat as the party hopes to extend influence beyond Dalits.However, his entry may be seen suspiciously by JDU as another ploy by the BJP to weaken Nitish. BJP Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, who nurses CM ambitions, may also not be happy at this prospect as it weakens his claim for the top post. Chirag is young and is believed to have a decent statewide presence. The BJP, which lacks leaders, wishes to pitch him against Tejashwi, who is emerging as the number one choice of the youth reeling from the unemployment issue.Chirag Paswan has risen in the CM preference ratings in the C-Voter survey from 5.8 per cent in April to 10.6 per cent in May (+4.8 per cent). He has gained at the expense of Samrat Chaudhary, whose ratings have declined from 12.5 per cent to 6.6 per cent (-5.9 per cent).(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch

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Chhattisgarh: Two Surrendered Maoists Abducted, Murdered in Bijapur District

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Indian Express

2 hours ago

• Indian Express

Does RJD have a Dalit problem? As Lalu Prasad faces fire, why his party has so few SC faces

In 1969, a young Lalu Prasad, then a student at Patna University, participated in his first political rally led by socialist leader Shivanand Tiwari to protest against the Shankaracharya's alleged derogatory remarks about Dalits, effectively starting his political career by taking up the cause of the community. Over five-and-a-half decades later, the RJD chief and former Bihar Chief Minister finds himself at the centre of a controversy for allegedly 'insulting' Dr B R Ambedkar by placing his portrait on the floor during his birthday celebrations on June 11. Lalu, during his almost six-decade political career, has traversed from being an OBC (Other Backward Classes) voice against the Congress's dominant upper-caste politics to a socialist leader in 1990, when he championed the cause of the 'garib gurba (poor people)' during his first term as CM between 1990 and 1995. 'He began his politics by taking up the Dalit cause. Since then, he has risen in politics and cultivated his support base. Years later, he still remains a big force in the state's politics,' Tiwari told The Indian Express, adding that the BJP's love for Ambedkar was 'newfound and purely driven by politics'. Lalu's politics saw a marked shift after the 1995 Assembly polls, as he began cultivating an exclusive Muslim-Yadav support base. After he stepped down as CM over his alleged involvement in the fodder scam and his wife Rabri Devi took over in 1997, the RJD began sporting a more Muslim-Yadav look with the presence of some upper-caste leaders such as former MPs Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, Jagdanand Singh (who recently stepped down as RJD state president), and Prabhunath Singh. By the time the Assembly polls of 2000 approached, Lalu's politics had completed its three-tier shift from 'Mandalisation' to 'secularisation' to 'Yadavaisation'. The RJD chief also tried to cultivate the support of Dalits, who form 19.65% of the state's population, by making Ramai Ram, a Dalit leader from Muzaffarpur who had joined the RJD in 2000, the party's state president. 'It (Ram's appointment) was mere tokenism as Muslims and Yadavs continued to be the core voter base of the RJD after the 2000 Assembly polls, which saw the party field many candidates from the two communities. It was difficult for Lalu to consolidate Dalit voters as by that time (LJP founder) Ram Vilas Paswan emerged as the main stakeholder of the Paswan community while the Ravidas community was firmly behind the Congress and continues to be,' said political analyst Sanjay Kumar. Though Lalu's son and former Deputy CM Tejashwi Prasad Yadav has renewed the party's push to consolidate Dalit votes with this 'inclusive politics' pitch since taking over ahead of the 2020 Assembly polls, prominent RJD leaders from the community have either quit the party or have been lying low. For instance, former Speaker Uday Narayan Choudary has been out of the spotlight while former minister Shyam Rajak left the RJD last August. Of the 76 RJD MLAs, only six are from Scheduled Caste (SC) communities. As the video of the alleged insult went viral, the NDA lapped up the opportunity to target the RJD chief, who was issued a notice by the Bihar State Commission for Scheduled Castes on June 13. A day later, Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary criticised Lalu, as did Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on June 16. The National Commission for Scheduled Castes issued a notice to the former CM on June 19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his address in Siwan on Friday, targeted the RJD chief. 'The RJD has no respect for Dalits and OBCs. They insult Baba Saheb … I know these people will never apologise, because they have no respect for Dalits and the backward classes in their hearts. The RJD and Congress put Baba Saheb's picture at their feet, Modi keeps him in his heart … The people of Bihar will never forget this insult,' he said. The RJD said the allegations had been 'stretched beyond imagination'. 'The PM tried to take a dig at our national president but forgot that last December, the Union Home Minister (Amit Shah) made a very indecent comment on Ambedkar during his Rajya Sabha address. Don't Shah's comments amount to trivialising and disrespecting Ambedkar? The PM's silence speaks volumes about his insincerity towards the principles and values Baba Saheb stood for,' RJD Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Kumar Jha told The Indian Express.¯

First Post

2 hours ago

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How Turkey's interests in the Indian Ocean go beyond just Islamism

Like many other European nations, the US or China, Turkey has also seemingly concluded that the Indian Ocean is where the action is, and outsider nations should have a presence here if they have to be counted in, even as a wannabe global power read more In the post-Operation Sindoor domestic discourse, the strategic community in India, as well as sections of the nation's polity, have been targeting Turkey, along with China, for supporting Pakistan in what essentially was a cross-border terror attack in Pahalgam. In a simplistic way, many Indians have concluded that Turkey's support for Pakistan flowed from religious commonality. At times, it has been interpreted as Ankara's desire to recreate the Ottoman Empire spirit from a bygone era, where peripheral Muslim states in South Asia may be more malleable to inducements than nations from the Islamic heartland in West Asia and, by extension, Africa. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Such constructs are only partially and Pakistan have been friends and partners for over four decades, even as Ankara and New Delhi remained friends and trading partners. Turkey's backing for Pakistan, starting with the 'Kashmir issue' for some years now, is in fact a part of Ankara's two-decade-long plans for expanding beyond its immediate neighbourhood into the Indian Ocean. In a way, Turkey's ambitions in the matter are possibly older than those of China, which is also a non-territorial entity in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) but wants to have at least a piece of the cake. In comparison to both, the US, with its Diego Garcia military base, wants to be seen as an IOR entity. After the UK recently conceded Mauritius sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago, of which Diego Garcia is a part, the US has got a new 99-year lease, over and above the original 50 years plus an additional 20, the latter since 2016. France, with the Reunion Island not far away from Diego Garcia, can claim greater legitimacy in the IOR. Extending the argument, it can be said China's interest in acquiring a 99-year lease of Hambantota 'territory' in Sri Lanka has a legitimacy angle to it as much as the trade, transhipment and bunkering business that it entails. No other non-regional player can claim such legitimacy and access – though in the case of China in Hambantota, the lease agreement does not entail any military presence. Hence also the Indian reservations about China sending out 'spy ships' in the name of oceanic research in recent years. In context, Turkey does not have any base or 'territory' of the Hambantota kind in these parts. That, however, has not stopped Ankara from making friends and influencing nations in the IOR neighbourhood, especially because India anyway would not have partnered with Turkey in creating a shared strategic interest in these parts. Certainly, it would not have helped India in any way. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Thus, street calls in India for a boycott of Turkey, as happened in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, on the lines of the successful social media boycott call of Maldives two years back, over time can only be counterproductive, especially if Indians are going to act on them in a big way. Such street acts on the government are forced to fall in line when New Delhi has been handling issues in a mature way. Unique Animal In geopolitical terms, Turkey is a unique animal. It has had historic links both with Asia and Europe, which is only a geographical reality. In terms of its Asian connections, rather than the religious roots, the country is a member of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). In geo-economic terms, Turkey is not a member of the EU. But in geopolitical and geostrategic terms, the nation signed up with the US-led NATO because it feared the erstwhile Soviet Union. For the same reasons, Ankara was also a member of the US-created Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO). STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Because India did not yield to American persuasions and instead created the non-alignment movement along with like-minded erstwhile European colonies in the Cold War era, Pakistan signed up, precisely for the same reason. The CENTO did not have as much relevance or importance as NATO, but it was one more venue where Turkey and Pakistan interacted. In historic terms, the Ottoman Empire had its origins in Islam that was native to Asia at the founding stage. With a 99-per cent Muslim population, Turkey is also only one of the two member nations in NATO, other than Albania (60 per cent Muslim), that has strong Islamic roots and presence. As is otherwise acknowledged, NATO is incidentally a grouping of nations that cherish 'Christian values'. Incidentally, the new name, 'Türkiye', is of very recent origins. Ankara notified the new name, or spelling, from the original Turkey to the UN in 2021 and officially adopted it only in 2023. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Turkey had a 'Vision 2023 Project' for the centenary year of the post-Ottoman Republic. It also has a 'Türkiye 2053 Project', coinciding with the 600th anniversary of the 'Conquest of Istanbul', an important milestone in Islamic political history. Since 2005, Ankara has been following a 'Three Vision' foreign policy, with a focus on Europe, West Asia and Africa, with the aim to recreate the 'Ottoman spirit'. In fact, the country even sought EU membership, and the aim is to try to leverage it to sub-serve the nation's geo-economic, geopolitical and geo-strategic ambitions. Yet, Ankara also has a clearer vision than is acknowledged, especially in 'distant' nations like India. It wants to make its mark in technology, and that includes technology for military purposes. Friendly Nations Turkey's drones played a significant role in Ukraine's continuing war with Russia, making the rest of the world look up. It has also emerged as a dependable defence supplier for 'friendly nations', of which Pakistan is only one, even in these parts. It wooed incumbent Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu from his past as Male mayor, and Turkey was the first country he visited after assuming office in November 2023. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Turkey has since delivered three drones to the Maldives to replace India-gifted aircraft to survey the vast seas around the archipelago against international drug smuggling and possible terrorist activities. More recently, Turkey also donated a 40-plus-year-old missile-capable naval vessel to Maldives, which is said to be a 'gas-guzzler' – but Ankara's message stood conveyed. In between, Turkey's 'TCG Kinaliada', a naval vessel, paid a goodwill visit to Maldives last year. During President Muizzu's maiden overseas visit to Turkey, his 'friend' Erdogan also seemingly promised to deliver the Maldives' full year's rations of essentials, including rice, sugar and wheat flour. The aim, whether of Muizzu, Erdogan or both, was to cut off Maldives' near-exclusive dependence on India in this department. Blame it on the Houthis' attack on shipping in the Red Sea or whatever; that did not happen. Maldives had to then go back to India quietly for continuing the supplies, for which Muizzu had bravely declared he 'will not depend on only one source'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Multi-polar World Plain and simple, Turkey's Indian Ocean outreach goes beyond Islam. Rather, the nation has regional and global ambitions like many others, especially in the post-Cold War era, when a multipolar world has caught the imagination of many nations. Turkey visualises itself as a 'middle power' of some kind and hopes to exploit its location advantage in political, economic and geo-strategic terms, using Islam as one more chip, or trump card, where it works. It suits the incumbent government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He and his ruling party have made 'Islamic nationalism' a steady staple in domestic politics. Erdoğan is facing re-election next year and street protests at present. The protests in March followed the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a possible challenger in next year's presidential poll. The issue of democracy may play a key role in the polls, but it does not necessarily mean that Turkey will overnight give up national ambitions. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Wannabe Power From an Indian perspective, this is important. Turkey's support for Pakistan on the 'Kashmir issue' flows from 'Islamic nationalist' and 'expansionist' tendencies. Under Erdoğan, it has vocalised and become louder – and also as frequent as Islamabad has wanted. But Turkey's national ambitions and a global role, centred also on the 'distant' Indian Ocean, remain. Like many other European nations, the US or China, Turkey has also seemingly concluded that the Indian Ocean is where the action is, and outsider nations should have a presence here if they have to be counted in, even as a wannabe global power. The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator. Email: sathiyam54@ Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.