Can Nitish Kumar Survive the 2025 Bihar Political Storm?
Published : Apr 21, 2025 19:34 IST - 9 MINS READ
With just six months to go before the Bihar Assembly election, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, looks jaded. He faces serious questions about his health, and the NDA's social coalition appears fractured by the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) Muslim-Yadav-plus consolidation strategy.
The latest blow to Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), came when the party backed the controversial waqf amendment law. In its immediate aftermath, five Muslim leaders resigned, and the decision sparked resentment among several members of the party. The leaders who quit were Mohammad Qasim Ansari, State secretary of minority cell Mohammad Shahnawaz Malik, Bettiah (West Champaran) district vice president Nadeem Akhtar, State general secretary (minority cell) Mohammad Tabrez Siddiqui, and party member from Bhojpur Mohammad Dilshan Rayeen. JD(U) MLC Ghulam Ghaus termed the Act unconstitutional and urged President Droupadi Murmu to repeal it.
Also Read | Will Nitish Kumar remain the face of the NDA in the Bihar Assembly election?
Qasim Ansari's resignation letter to Nitish Kumar dominated the headlines, but senior JD(U) leaders dismissed the issue, preferring to recall that when Ansari contested the 2020 election from the Dhaka Assembly seat in East Champaran district on the kite symbol (of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), he had won only 499 votes.
While it is true that those who resigned are not top-level leaders, their decision to quit points to a growing sense of disillusionment among Muslim voters with Nitish Kumar, who, despite his alliance with the BJP, has long enjoyed their goodwill. By backing the waqf law, the JD(U) has clearly indicated that it does not want to rock the NDA boat in the State.
Muslim resentment
However, the resignations do not augur well for the JD(U) in an election year, particularly when the battle lines have become sharper, with a resurgent RJD reaching out to non-Yadav communities among the Other Backward Classes in a big way and Muslims solidly backing the Lalu Prasad-Tejashwi Yadav duo.
Only a few months ago, Ali Anwar Ansari, two-term Rajya Sabha member from the JD(U) and leader of the Pasmanda Muslim Samaj, resigned to join the Congress. The RJD-Congress combine is expected to use Ansari's popularity to rope in Pasmanda (backward) Muslim votes.
In Bihar, power revolves around three major poles: the BJP, the RJD, and the JD(U). Smaller players such as the Congress, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), or LJP(RV), Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party add weight to whichever alliance they join. So far it has been a case of two groups coming together and forming the government.
While the BJP and the RJD have never been in an alliance, the JD(U) has changed sides several times, altering the power dynamics in the State. Between 2013 and 2024, Nitish Kumar changed sides four times, earning himself the sobriquet of 'Paltu Ram', or side-switcher.
After his last return to the BJP combine in 2024, Nitish Kumar has been at pains to counter growing rumours of yet another change of sides. In March, in the presence of Home Minister Amit Shah, he declared that he had 'erred twice' and promised to stay with the BJP permanently. Previously, he had given such assurances to Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself during public meetings.
Modi's decision to do a small roadshow with Nitish Kumar in February in Bhagalpur was also aimed at scotching such speculation. For now, the BJP has stalled the possibility of Nitish Kumar making another switch to the RJD, but what is worrying for the saffron party is his declining political currency.
JD(U) powerhouse
Whether in the party or in the government, Nitish Kumar has never left anyone in doubt about where the JD(U)'s fulcrum of power lay.
In December 2023, he underscored this when he secured the resignation of party president Rajiv Ranjan Singh, alias Lalan Singh, and donned the party chief role for the second time. In April 2016, Nitish had replaced the longest-serving JD(U) president, Sharad Yadav (who served 3 terms and over 10 years), against his wishes.
Ironically, it was Nitish Kumar who made Sharad Yadav party president in 2006, replacing firebrand leader George Fernandes, who had been party president since 2003 and head of its predecessor, the Samata Party, since 1994 when it was formed.
Nitish Kumar has always managed to gain the upper hand while handling rebellion, whether from his own aide-turned-rebel Upendra Kushwaha, R.C.P. Singh in the party, or Jitan Ram Manjhi in the government.
He has also been taking the high moral ground by not promoting any family member in politics. (The nearest parallel to Nitish Kumar is Naveen Patnaik of Odisha.) There has been no charge of dynastic politics against him, until now that is. Early this year, his son Nishant Kumar emerged from the shadows and started making his political presence felt, giving rise to the speculation that Nitish Kumar was preparing to hand over the reins in view of his failing health. Videos showing him faltering and forgetting are making the rounds on social media.
Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, learning from their 2015 Assembly election defeat, the BJP wooed Nitish Kumar by offering him 16 seats despite the 2 his party had won in 2014. Nitish Kumar has been Chief Minister in governments supported by either the RJD or the BJP even when those parties have had a greater number of seats than the JD(U).
Also Read | Bihar and the new kid on the block
Now, in 2025, the BJP has again stooped to conquer, announcing Nitish Kumar as the face of the NDA in Bihar. This is a surprise, especially in light of Amit Shah's cryptic comment in a television interview earlier, saying 'we will sit together and decide', in response to a question on who would lead the coalition in Bihar.
The RJD, too, despite repeated snubs, has not tired of stating that its doors are open for Nitish Kumar. Or, rather, Lalu Prasad says so, but Tejashwi Yadav opposes it.
Women's support
Nitish Kumar's strength lies in continued support from large sections of women voters across caste lines, thanks to steps such as prohibition, seat reservation for women in panchayats, and welfare measures like bicycles to school-going girls. In addition, through special programmes, he has strengthened his grip over non-Yadav Extremely Backward Classes and Mahadalits.
The JD(U)'s hold over 15 per cent of the votes helps the NDA become a winning combination, as it adds to the BJP and other allies' 20 per cent vote share, and nullifies the RJD-Congress advantage of starting with a base of nearly 30 per cent of the votes from Muslims and Yadavs.
However, one sees a decline in JD(U)'s vote share in Assembly elections. In the 2005 and 2010 Assembly elections, when it contested in alliance with the BJP, the party got over 20 per cent and 22 per cent of votes. In 2015, this dropped to 17 per cent when it was in alliance with the RJD; and in 2020, the JD(U) got just 15.7 per cent when in alliance with the BJP.
The declining vote share directly translated also into a fall in the number of seats: from a peak of 115 seats in 2010, the party won 71 in 2015 and just 43 seats in 2020.
In contrast, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it was the RJD that scored the maximum vote percentage among all parties with 22.14 per cent.
Declining clout
As early as 2013, in his book Bihar Breakthrough, Rajesh Chakrabarti said: 'It would, however, be a mistake to think that the population in Bihar today extols Nitish the same way as it did going into the previous election. The gains brought by the administration have already been absorbed in the general psyche and the expectations from the government are much higher than in the Lalu era. The public is ironically less grateful than expecting... at times the discontent has boiled over to a point where Nitish's convoy has been stoned during the Seva Yatra.'
Nitish possibly read the writing on the wall in 2015, which is why he decided to join hands with the same Lalu Prasad whose misgovernance he had made the main plank of his politics. The victory that year of the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD and the Congress, aided by the election strategist Prashant Kishor, was as such a more complex verdict than a simple barometer of Nitish Kumar's popularity. By 2020, the JD(U) had declined further.
Now, Prashant Kishor has formed his own party. Not surprisingly, doubts are being raised in multiple quarters about Nitish Kumar's prospects of being projected as the chief ministerial candidate in 2025 and whether such a move will actually benefit the alliance.
Two decades is a long period in politics and there are indications of anti-incumbency having caught up with Nitish Kumar. For instance, despite the Congress being only a minor player in Bihar, its stop-migration-give-jobs yatra that started on March 16 in Champaran has gained good traction.
Champaran is the land of Mahatma Gandhi's indigo agitation during the freedom movement. The political symbolism of the venue is strong. Prashant Kishor too had started his yatra under the banner of Jan Suraaj to connect with the masses from the same place.
Still a force to reckon with
Nitish Kumar's supporters, on their part, cite the 2024 Lok Sabha election when JD(U) had won 12 of 16 seats it contested to buttress the point that he still counts. When doubts were being expressed about projecting Nitish Kumar as the leader of NDA in Bihar, his supporters came out in support in December last year, coining the slogan, 'Jab baat Bihar ki ho, naam sirf Nitish Kumar ka ho' (When it is about Bihar, Nitish Kumar should be the only name), during their leader's Pragati Yatra, which too started from Champaran.
Clearly, 2025 is the toughest election battle that Nitish Kumar is facing. But a confident JD(U) has come out with bold posters screaming '25 se 30, phir se Nitish' (it is Nitish again from 2025 to 2030).
Speaking to Frontline on Nitish Kumar's strengths and why he remains relevant, Amitabh Tiwari, political commentator and election strategist, said: 'Nitish Kumar is a force multiplier; whichever party the JD(U) aligns with goes on to form the government. Bihar's caste equations and societal conditions give him the political manoeuvrability to switch sides successfully.'
Also Read | Bihar 2025: No cakewalk for BJP, RJD or Nitish Kumar
He added: 'His core base has remained more or less intact and he also brings a section of the Pasmanda Muslim votes due to his secular image. This won't change because of Waqf.'
He also said that the BJP has been piggybacking on Nitish Kumar for the past 20 years and does not have a leader to match him or Tejashwi Yadav.
'No BJP leader has a pan-State appeal. The BJP can't touch the magical figure on its own. Even a weakened Nitish still commands a crucial 12-15 per cent vote share. The RJD has been struggling to expand its vote base beyond Muslims and Yadavs,' he said, adding that Nitish Kumar brings acceptability and adds legitimacy to any alliance he joins.
Whether Nitish Kumar can work his magic one last time and silence the naysayers is keeping all the political pundits guessing.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Next-gen netas add flavour to old jaat-paat politics in battle for Bihar
Family Drama: The romance saga involving Lalu's older son Tej Pratap Yadav (right) has become a political issue. It has also created a rift with brother Tejashwi The forthcoming 2025 Bihar assembly election promises to be interesting in many ways. First, it is shaping up to be an election dominated by youth—or, at least, by leaders who are being projected as 'youthful' by their parties. Leaders like RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav , Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan, Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, former Bihar CM Jitan Ram Manjhi's son Santosh Kumar Suman, and the UK-return Pushpam Priya Choudhary are actively holding public rallies and campaigning across Bihar's villages, towns, and bastis. Although most of these leaders are aged between 35 and 55, many young voters in Bihar identify with them. They are seen as relatively fresh, energetic alternatives to older politicians, and not 'phunka hua teer' (a spent, ineffective arrow) or 'chala hua khokha' (an empty, fired shell of a bullet), colloquial jabs that youth often use to describe those past their political prime. Still, this is less a break from the past than a rebranding of it. Except for Kishor, most of these contenders are inheritors of political legacies—sons and daughters stepping into dynastic shoes. There is also speculation that Nishant Kumar, the son of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, may contest because of concerns over his father's health. This generational churn reflects Bihar's demographic reality: according to Census data, 57% of its population is under 25—the highest proportion of young people in the country. That youth bulge is beginning to reshape the political conversation. Second, adding a dramatic subplot to the political theatre is the ongoing family saga involving Tej Pratap Yadav, the elder son of Lalu Prasad Yadav. In a twist worthy of a prime-time soap opera, Tej Pratap recently declared his love for Anushka Yadav on social media, claiming a 12-year-long relationship—despite still being married to Aishwarya Rai, the granddaughter of former CM Daroga Prasad Rai. Though he later claimed his Facebook account was hacked and the photos doctored, Lalu responded by expelling his son from the RJD for six years, citing 'irresponsible behaviour' and actions 'not in accordance with our family values and traditions.' This is no longer just a private family 'affair'—it has entered the political sphere and is likely to influence the election discourse. The controversy has triggered heated inter-generational debates across Bihar, especially between youth and parents in rural and urban areas. Some critics seized the opportunity to question the moral character and family values of RJD, framing the situation as an injustice against Tej Pratap's estranged wife Aishwarya Rai. While many RJD leaders have been on the defensive, some have pointed to similar precedents—such as Ram Vilas Paswan's second marriage — to argue for personal freedom. Among young voters, opinion is split. Some, especially those under-25 voters, seem to sympathise with Tej Pratap and feel Lalu was unnecessarily harsh on his son. Others, particularly in rural Bihar, are uncomfortable with the spectacle and the social media melodrama, especially given the unresolved allegations of domestic abuse from his marriage to Aishwarya. Beyond the controversy, this younger (or young-adjacent) generation of politicians does appear to have injected new energy into the campaign. Their social media battles are flashier, complete with rap tracks and viral videos. More significantly, they are foregrounding issues such as employment, education, youth welfare, public health, and development. Tejashwi Yadav—who focused on unemployment and migration in the 2020 campaign—has promised a 100% domicile policy and job opportunities for locals if voted to power. Prashant Kishor, too, has laid out a vision aimed at reversing Bihar's migration crisis and boosting employment. This shift signals a possible transformation in Bihar's political culture—one that may be inching away from traditional identity politics toward more development-centric narratives. Still, it would be naïve to assume that jaat-paat no longer matters; parties know full well how caste arithmetic can make or break electoral fortunes. No surprise then that, besides nationalism, the NDA is expected to counter the Mahagathbandan's narrative by focusing on its own initiative to include caste data in the upcoming national Census. In a state as politically fragmented as Bihar, it's tough to tell which of these leaders or coalitions will get the upper hand. But what's clear is that the voices and aspirations of young Biharis will dominate the discourse—by sheer demographic force, if nothing else. And in the background, the saga of Tej Pratap Yadav will likely continue to echo through the campaign— reminiscent of the age-old tota-maina stories with love, loyalty and betrayal. Narayan is director, G B Pant Social Science Institute
Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
Ex-MP demands public apology, files defamation suit against author for ‘damaging claims' in book
As political parties gear up for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, a legal controversy has emerged involving author Mrityunjay Sharma and former MP Sadhu Yadav. Sharma, who wrote the book 'Broken Promises', has received a `5 crore defamation notice from Sadhu Yadav, the brother-in-law of RJD chief Lalu Prasad. The notice, served by a law firm on behalf of Yadav on June 18, accused Sharma of making damaging claims in his book and recent podcast interviews. It demanded a public apology and withdrawal of certain references made in the book and online interviews. On Saturday, Sharma told The Indian Express that the book, released last year, is entirely based on verifiable sources and not personal opinions. He said, 'I'm definitely not going to apologise for something that's based on facts and evidence. If they are not ashamed of doing these things, why should I be ashamed of writing about them?' 'Every line is referenced. There's no imagination or speculation involved,' he said. 'Two days ago, I received the legal notice. It asked me to apologise or face hefty fines. I've decided to make the entire matter public, because people should know what kind of person he is,' he said. Sharma had shared the legal notice and his public response on X. According to Sharma, the defamation notice objects to three references in his book — the Shilpi-Gautam murder case, a looting incident during Rohini Acharya's wedding, and a violent protest episode outside Bihar Bhavan in Delhi. The author, who is also known for his widely circulated political podcasts, said he is prepared to defend himself in court if necessary. 'If they move to court, I will fight it. There's no question of a private settlement or backdoor apology. I have a huge volume of source material to prove every line I've written,' he said. Asked if Yadav contacted him, Sharma said, 'He did call me a couple of months ago, but it wasn't threatening in nature. That's why I didn't mention it in my original post. But yes, as a precautionary note, I mentioned that a call was received.' Shubham Tigga hails from Chhattisgarh and studied journalism at the Asian College of Journalism. He previously reported in Chhattisgarh on Indigenous issues and is deeply interested in covering socio-political, human rights, and environmental issues in mainland and NE India. Presently based in Pune, he reports on civil aviation, other transport sectors, urban mobility, the gig economy, commercial matters, and workers' unions. You can reach out to him on LinkedIn ... Read More
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
HC: Organised crime grave economic & security threat
Nagpur: Organised crime is not limited by borders and has a devastating impact on the country's economy and internal security by enabling terrorism , Nagpur bench of Bombay High Court observed while overturning a lower court order that denied police custody of a member of a crime syndicate. Justice Urmila Joshi-Phalke, while granting seven-day police custody to Lalu Yadav , 33, under the stringent Maharashtra Control of Organised Crime Act (MCOCA), said, "organised crime is a serious threat to society and is fuelled by illegal wealth generated by contract killing, extortion, narcotics trade, ransom kidnappings, money laundering, and protection rackets." The court rejected the special MCOCA court's May 3 ruling, which denied police custody on the limited ground that the probe was focused on tracing bank accounts and property. Justice Joshi-Phalke said the special court failed to consider crucial aspects of the investigation, including the accused's ongoing role in a larger organised crime syndicate. "MCOCA can be invoked even if direct crime involvement is absent, but syndicate nexus is established," the judge said. "Black money generated by organised crime has had a serious adverse effect on our economy. These syndicates have made a common cause with terrorist gangs," the court said, while affirming that MCOCA empowers agencies to intercept communications and pursue complex networks that threaten national security. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The oldest stars whose fans don't even know they're still alive Reportingly Undo The court was hearing a revision plea filed by the state against the lower court's refusal to grant police custody. Yadav was arrested in a March 14 assault case registered in Yerla, Kalmeshwar, where he and a co-accused allegedly attacked a man with a sickle. Though the case was initially registered under Bhartiya Nagrik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS), further investigation revealed a pattern of serious, repeat offences allegedly committed for pecuniary gain — prompting the application of MCOCA. The prosecution submitted that Yadav had at least nine criminal cases against him, with seven still pending. "He is a repeat offender operating for economic gain. His actions fit the definition of continuing unlawful activity under MCOCA," the state counsel contended, while urging custodial interrogation to investigate deeper links within the crime syndicate. The high court agreed, stressing that even if an individual may not have committed a particular act of organised crime directly, their nexus with a syndicate or with repeated unlawful acts could still justify invoking MCOCA. "A nexus with the crime syndicate is enough to attract the Act," Justice Joshi-Phalke said, citing Supreme Court's precedent in the Ranjitsing Brahmajeetsing Sharma case. She ruled that police must be given a fair opportunity to probe syndicate structures, pecuniary trails, and unlawful activities under the wider framework of MCOCA. "In light of the legislative intent, denial of custody would amount to frustrating the purpose of the law," the court said while quashing the lower court's orders.
