Latest news with #non-Yadav
News18
12-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
In BJP's 5-Point Bihar Plan, No Room For Complacency As RJD Looks Set To Copy Akhilesh's SP
Last Updated: The BJP sources said the NDA has much in its favour in Bihar and expects to win the state this October under Nitish Kumar's leadership No anti-incumbency, a favourable caste combination, a positive atmosphere due to Operation Sindoor, the caste census card, and sympathy for Nitish Kumar—this is the BJP's game plan for the crucial Bihar election battle later this year. However, the party is ensuring no complacency or overconfidence in what is expected to be a tough caste clash, top BJP sources told CNN-News18. They said the NDA has much in its favour in Bihar and expects to win the state this October under Nitish Kumar's leadership. But the party remains cautious and is avoiding overconfidence, aware that Bihar is a 'caste battle" and the RJD is aggressively courting caste groups beyond its Yadav-Muslim base, one of these top BJP sources said. 'There is certainly no anti-incumbency. People appreciate the development they have seen in Bihar under the NDA government," the source said. RJD learning from SP's success The top BJP source added that the BJP recognises that the Rashtriya Janata Dal is attempting to replicate Akhilesh Yadav's 2024 Lok Sabha election strategy by giving many tickets to candidates outside the Yadav-Muslim demographic in the upcoming assembly polls. The Samajwadi Party had bruised the BJP in Uttar Pradesh last year by allocating numerous tickets to non-Yadav OBCs and winning 37 Lok Sabha seats, its best-ever performance. A second BJP source said the National Democratic Alliance has a stronger caste combination than the opposition. The recent caste census announcement is also expected to benefit the NDA. 'Much is said about Nitish Kumar's health by the opposition, but he will likely receive considerable sympathy votes in these Bihar polls," this source said. Operation Sindoor impact Bihar will also be the first state to hold elections after Operation Sindoor, and the Bharatiya Janata Party has ground feedback suggesting a positive resonance in this Hindi-belt state, where anti-Pakistan sentiment is strong. The Prime Minister has already held two rallies in Bihar since April, addressing the action against Pakistan. Narendra Modi will be in Siwan, an RJD stronghold, on June 20. Congress prospects dim, Chirag burns bright The BJP is banking on the RJD again allocating a substantial number of seats to the Congress. In the last assembly elections, while the RJD had a reasonable strike rate, winning 75 of the 144 seats it contested, the Congress secured only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. The Janata Dal (United) won just 43 seats, as Chirag Paswan's party significantly dented it by contesting independently. A top BJP source noted a significant change: Chirag is now with the NDA and demonstrated a good strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning five seats. Chirag recently stated that he would contest the assembly polls from a general seat and is vying for a deputy CM position. 'He has a good vote base in the Patna-Hajipur region and has his own ambitions," the BJP source added. The second BJP source said seat distribution in Bihar would be smooth, despite the ambitions of regional players like the JD(U) and Chirag's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). 'Our leader so far is Nitish Kumar," the source said. He added that even the RJD knows the Congress will likely underperform in the opposition camp if given a considerable number of seats, as demonstrated in previous Hindi heartland elections.
News18
11-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
Can Maharaja Suheldev vs Gazi Salar Masud Pitch Swing 2027 UP Battle? BJP Hopes So
Last Updated: Suheldev holds symbolic value among the Rajbhar and Pasi communities, both considered crucial in eastern Uttar Pradesh's caste arithmetic Maharaja Suheldev vs Gazi Salar Masud was the underlying message as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath addressed a public gathering in Bahraich on Tuesday. On the face of it, it was a cultural event celebrating a largely folkloric warrior-king from the 11th century. But scratch the surface and political meaning emerges: the BJP, analysts say, is shaping a sharp counter-narrative to the Samajwadi Party-led PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) pitch by resurrecting historical memory loaded with communal, cultural, and caste resonances. The Suheldev Vijayotsav, marked by the unveiling of a 40-feet tall equestrian statue of Maharaja Suheldev at Chittora Lake, became the stage for the chief minister to launch a blistering ideological assault. Targeting the SP and Congress, Yogi accused them of appeasing 'foreign invaders" for Muslim votes and glorifying figures like Gazi Salar Masud—a medieval figure buried in Bahraich, revered by many but labelled an 'invader" by the Right-wing. In his speech, Yogi invoked Suheldev's legendary victory against Salar Masud and thanked those who stopped organising events in Masud's name. 'Bahraich should celebrate Suheldev's legacy, not that of Salar Masud. He was an invader, and a symbol of slavery," said the CM, adding that the annual fairs in honour of Masud promoted a 'ghulami ki mansikta" (slavery mindset). He also linked the issue to temple politics, asking rhetorically: 'Who were those who opposed the Ram temple in Ayodhya? Who stood against the Kashi Vishwanath corridor?" and answered it himself — 'They were the same people who praised invaders like Gazi." Yogi also oversaw the ceremonial 'ann-prashan' of five infants, all named Suheldev, in a symbolic gesture of passing heritage to the next generation. He distributed cheques of Rs5 lakh each to entrepreneurs under the Mukhyamantri Yuva Udyami Yojana and emphasised the BJP's commitment to honouring 'real national heroes." Political analysts see more than just cultural revivalism in this script. According to Shashikant Pandey, head of department of political sciences at Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, 'This event was a clear attempt to polarise non-Yadav OBCs under a unifying Hindutva banner. By pitting Suheldev against Salar Masud, the BJP is aiming to split the PDA bloc — especially among Rajbhar, Pasi and other backward castes who claim Suheldev as part of their legacy." Suheldev holds symbolic value among the Rajbhar and Pasi communities, both considered crucial in eastern Uttar Pradesh's caste arithmetic. The Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, is back in NDA fold after a brief SP alliance. The Suheldev vs Masud binary, political observers say, could help the BJP strengthen its hold on non-Yadav OBCs by offering a civilisational pride narrative in place of caste-based mobilisation. Rajbhar Vote A Key Target According to Pandey, the event in Bahraich carried a layered political messaging aimed at more than just countering the Samajwadi Party's PDA narrative. 'Beyond the visible cultural symbolism, this was also a strategic outreach to the Rajbhar community," he said. 'Suheldev is a revered figure among Rajbhars, and invoking him at such a grand scale is BJP's attempt to emotionally consolidate that vote bank, which has shown volatility in recent years." Pandey pointed out that there are approximately 70-80 lakh Rajbhar voters in Uttar Pradesh, spread predominantly across eastern districts such as Azamgarh, Ghazipur, Mau, Ballia, Deoria, and of course, Bahraich. 'The Rajbhars can swing the outcome in 25 to 30 assembly seats, and their alignment with SBSP under Om Prakash Rajbhar has earlier given both SP and BJP key electoral advantages," he noted. 'By placing Suheldev in direct contrast to Salar Masud, the BJP is not only reinforcing Hindu pride but also ensuring that caste pride aligns with religious and nationalist sentiment — a classic saffron strategy." Yogi Blames SP-Congress The UP CM also blamed the Samajwadi Party and Congress for turning a blind eye to 'foreign aggressors" in pursuit of Muslim votes. 'When we celebrate Sardar Patel, SP sings praises of Jinnah. When we talk about Maharaja Suheldev, they rush to talk about Gazi Miyan's marriage," said Yogi, ridiculing past efforts to promote what he termed 'appeasement politics." He thanked those who stopped events associated with Gazi Salar Masud and called for a complete halt to commemorations in the names of invaders. 'Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it clear — national heroes must be honoured, not invaders," Yogi asserted. The Statue & The Symbolism The newly inaugurated bronze statue of Maharaja Suheldev — touted as India's tallest of a warrior on a rearing horse — stands at Chittora Lake, eight kilometres from Bahraich town. Sculpted by Padma Shri awardee Ram Sutar under the supervision of the UP Lalit Kala Akademi, the statue is part of a larger memorial whose foundation was laid virtually by PM Modi in February 2021. The Historical Fog Suheldev's historicity remains contested. There is little mention of him in 11th-century Persian chronicles. His tale surfaces in the 14th-century Ajaib-ul-Khusurowi by Amir Khusrau and then more prominently in the 17th-century Mirat-e-Masudi, a hagiographic account of Salar Masud. According to these sources, Suheldev was the son of King Moolraj of Shravasti and led a coalition of local rulers to resist Muslim advances in the Terai belt. The defining battle is said to have taken place near Bahraich around 1033 AD, where Suheldev defeated and killed Salar Masud. However, historians like Dr Rajkishore of Bahraich say Suheldev is more a 'hero of legend than history," with multiple castes — Rajbhars, Pasis, Bhar, even Jains — claiming him as their own. One account even suggests Suheldev adopted Jainism, possibly because Brahmin priests would not anoint kings from 'lower castes." In eastern UP's folklore, however, Suheldev is remembered as the 'defender of the land" against Islamic expansion. A Battle of Memory and Identity Tuesday's event, thus, wasn't just about remembering a long-forgotten king, but about scripting a new narrative—one where historical memory, myth, caste identity, and political ideology converge. In the run-up to the 2027 state elections, such symbolic battles over statues, festivals, and forgotten figures are likely to intensify. As one local BJP leader said off the record, 'In Purvanchal, it's not just about who votes. It's about whose story is told louder. And Suheldev is now our story." Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : BJP congress news18 specials samajwadi party Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party The UPShot UP election Yogi Adityanath Location : Lucknow, India, India First Published: June 11, 2025, 16:40 IST News elections Can Maharaja Suheldev vs Gazi Salar Masud Pitch Swing 2027 UP Battle? BJP Hopes So
Hindustan Times
28-05-2025
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
TERMS OF TRADE: When the personal is political
Anybody who follows politics in Bihar will know that Tej Pratap Yadav, the elder son of Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav, is no stranger to controversies and idiosyncrasies. A lot of these were tolerated and taken note of because of who he was — the son of one of the most powerful politicians Bihar has ever seen who is, even today, an undeniable pole of the bipolar polity in the state. The latest controversy around Tej Pratap's expulsion from the RJD – his father and the party's national president announced it on a post on microblogging site X (formerly twitter) – after his revelations of having been in a relationship with a woman should ideally be a completely personal matter for Tej Pratap and his family. However, this is one of the typical cases of the personal being political in a world where politicians seek to preserve and centralise political power by keeping it within the family and clan and sometimes end up harming their cause rather than helping it while doing so. Lalu Prasad's political life, in fact, is a case study of this theory. Lalu Prasad's rise in politics began with what was one of the most important, if not the most important, phases of agitational politics in post-independence India, namely, the anti-emergency struggle. Almost all of India's current senior politicians are from this generation. He began as an office-bearer of the Patna University Students' Union during the emergency and went on to become one of the youngest members of parliament in the 1977 Lok Sabha elections which saw the Congress lose power in the country for the first time. Between 1977 and 1990, which is when he first became the chief minister of Bihar, Lalu's politics was about carefully negotiating the factional fights in the larger socialist camp in Indian politics to preserve his own political standing and settle scores. His elevation to the chief minister's post itself was the result of clever factional maneuvering when he emerged as the underdog winner in three-way fight between himself, Raghunath Jha and Ram Sundar Das. Lalu's political charisma came into full bloom once he got the chief minister's post. He cultivated a strong social-justice and secularism constituency for himself by his aggressive politics against entrenched feudal dominance of upper castes and arresting BJP's Lal Krishna Advani in the middle of his rath-yatra in Bihar. It was this popularity among the socially discriminated and a core voter base of Muslims and Yadavs which saw the Janata Dal under Lalu being re-elected to power in the 1995 elections with a clear majority (which it did not have in 1990) amidst a completely fragmented opposition. Also Read: Lalu expels son Tej Pratap Yadav from RJD over lack of conformity to values The 1995 victory, however, came in the wake of a fragmentation in the wider social-justice base of the Janata Dal. Some of Lalu's important (but non-Yadav) comrades such as Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes walked away from the Janata Dal to form the Samata Party, which was later renamed as Janata Dal (United). This split would lay the foundation of an electoral tie-up between the BJP and the socialists in Bihar, which has proved to be an invincible coalition in the state so far. While Yadav survived the first split in the party and emerged stronger from it in the 1995 elections, he would soon meet a legal rather than political challenge which would take him further towards on Orwellian rather than actual socialism. After being faced with a certain arrest in an ongoing anti-corruption case, he stunned everybody by nominating his wife Rabri Devi – she had no public profile earlier – as the chief minister of Bihar and forcing a split in the Janata Dal to form the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The fact that Yadav ignored several senior politicians from within his party, many of whom had been his comrades during the days of the anti-emergency struggle and were worthy of being handed the leadership of the party and govenrment, earned him the dubious distinction of a power grabber rather than a social revolutionary against feudal dominance. This was followed by other members of the Yadav family being seen as blatant abusers of state power and responsible for a complete breakdown of law and order in the state. Yadav's brothers-in-laws Sadhu and Subhash Yadav were two such characters. The latter gained extreme notoriety in a case (the Shilpi-Gautam murder case) when bodies of a young couple were found from his official MLC residence and the case was buried as one of suicide in what was alleged to have been murder and rape. It was episodes like these which tainted the Lalu Yadav regime as one of complete lawlessness. The ghosts of this past still haunt the RJD which is best seen in its extremely poor electoral record in urban centres in the state. It was because of this fragmentation in social base and rising discontent against misgovernance along a united opposition that the RJD would eventually lose power to the BJP-JD(U) alliance in 2005. It has not been able to come back to power ever since except when it contested the elections with the JD (U) in 2015. The RJD and JD (U) have not been able to hold on to the alliance on two occasions since 2015. With Lalu himself getting debarred from contesting elections because of his conviction in a criminal case, the 2015 assembly elections – when the RJD was seen as the being the most favourably placed to recapture power – opened the question of next generation leadership in the RJD. The decision once again was taken unambiguously in the favour of making way for the next generation rather than the party's existing leadership. Both of Lalu's sons contested the assembly elections. Also Read: Who is Tej Pratap Yadav? Lalu's ousted son and 'Aishwarya Rai's' ex-husband in row over 'partner of 12 years' To be sure, even before 2015, the RJD had seen one more of Lalu's trusted aides walking out in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Ram Kripal Yadav was asked to make way for Lalu's eldest daughter Misa Bharti on the Patliputra (rural parts of Patna district) parliamentary constituency in 2014 and he left the RJD to to join the BJP. Ram Kripal had won the Patna Lok Sabha seat twice in the past for the RJD. With both of Lalu's sons being elected MLAs in 2015, it was the younger son Tejashwi who would be given the more important post of the deputy chief minister's post in the new government while the elder brother Tej Pratap was made a minister. Since then, the elder brother has always been trying to make his presence felt in the party by making assertions for leadership even though it is Tejashwi who is seen as the chosen and increasingly more capable successor. On some occasions, Tej Pratap's assertion was just optics while on others, such as RJD's narrow loss in a its strong-hold Jehanabad parliamentary constituency in the 2019 general elections after a rebel candidate fielded by Tej Pratap polled more votes than the victory margin, it was serious nuisance value to the party. Tej Pratap's antiques however have not prevented the rise of Tejaswi Yadav in the RJD and also as the most important opposition leader in the state. However, there is no evidence so far that Tejaswhi can restore RJD's lost electoral dominance in the state. Ironical as it may sound, what could be Tej Pratap's biggest damage to the RJD's and Lalu Yadav's family's political fortunes seems to be the result of a decision where the family most likely prevailed on him. In 2018, Tej Pratap was married to Aishwarya Rai, the granddaughter of Bihar's second Yadav chief minister late Daroga Prasad Rai. Rai's father, Chandrika Rai is a politician himself and used to be close to Lalu Yadav. It was one of those classic cases of two politically important families within the same caste getting into a marital bond. The marriage, which was conducted with much fanfare, however did not last. Tej Pratap filed for a divorce within less than a year and Aishwarya made allegations of dowry and mental harassment against her husband's family. Among the fall-outs of the marriage was Chandrika Rai walking out of the RJD to join the JD(U) in 2020 and even hinting that his daughter might contest or campaign against the RJD and the brothers Yadavs themselves. It is in this backdrop that Tej Pratap's revelations about him being in a relationship for the past 12 years (predating the marriage) with another woman are extremely damning for the Lalu Yadav family. This is because the revelations make it look like the marriage was an act of deceit on the Rai family with the Yadav family knowing about Tej Pratap's relationship. Lalu Yadav's sharp reaction terming Tej Pratap's latest disclosure as an act of extreme moral turpitude is meant to offer plausible deniability to the RJD's first family. The opposition is already using the event to portray the Lalu Yadav family has having deliberately brought dishonour on the Rai family, an act of grave injustice and immorality within one's caste networks. Aishwarya herself has made public statements to the same effect. As the elections come closer, one should only expect this campaign among Yadavs, the RJD's core support base, to grow stronger. The community, which is the bulwark of RJD's political existence in the state will be told that its biggest leaders have brought 'dishonour' to one of their own. In an ideal world, this line of reasoning discussed above would be considered abhorrent and rightly seen as the manifestation of oppressive family structures; whether in good faith or bad, destroying the lives to two adults who should have been allowed to do what they wanted. However, power relations in Indian society are rarely in the realm of the progressive or liberal. Family and patriarchal norms are often used as controlling mechanisms to preserve or perpetuate power even at the cost of sacrificing personal agency, freedom or happiness. The larger cause cited to justify and impose these shackles is societal or clan pride and power. The washing of dirty family linen of the Yadav family in public and its blatant politicisation, something which has only started in this author's view, is only a manifestation of such an attempt gone wrong. The entire episode only underlines retrograde and patriarchal social structures and their deep intersectionality with the pursuit of power in India. What is ironical is that the politician in the centre of the storm is one who is rightly seen as a trailblazer in the fight against weakening feudal exploitation in an Indian state where caste exploitation was among the most violent and entrenched. The lesson to be learnt cannot be overemphasized. A fight for political power against a regime backed by an oppressive social super structure offers no guarantee that it will also purge retrograde values along with the rulers who championed them in the past. These values, which often hold the keys to holding power can very well be equally attractive to the new regime. Herein lies the contradiction of not just Lalu Prasad Yadav but Indian democracy and the battle for social liberation in the country. Roshan Kishore, HT's Data and Political Economy Editor, writes a weekly column on the state of the country's economy and its political fall out, and vice-versa
Time of India
17-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
With RSS inputs, BJP steps up spade work on 200 seats
Lucknow: In a strategic move for 2027 state elections, the BJP has stepped up its poll spadework in close to 200 assembly seats/segments of Uttar Pradesh where the party faced setbacks in the 2022 assembly and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP faced a significant dent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when its tally shrank from 66 to 36, a decline of around 30 seats. In all, the BJP lost 44 Lok Sabha seats, which, party insiders said, translates into around 200 seats where the party needs to augment its organisational structure and boost its position. The measure, sources said, was taken up after an exhaustive round of discussion with the RSS, the BJP's ideological fountainhead. The Sangh, it is learnt, recently deliberated on a host of steps that were required to be taken by the BJP to counter an aggressive opposition, primarily the Samajwadi Party, which has been hoisting its tried and tested Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak (PDA) plank. The party leadership has tasked state general secretary (organisation) Dharampal Singh to camp in the "vulnerable seats" and churn out remedial measures accordingly. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Insiders Swear By This Risky Forex Strategy – Find Out Why! Expertinspector Learn More Undo Singh, who has already hit the ground running, is learnt to be meeting the key party functionaries – incumbent and former organisational leaders in a host of assembly seats/segments which the BJP lost in the 2022 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. "The motto of the meeting is 'Har Karya ke liye karyakarta aur har karyakarta ke liye karya' (work for every party worker)," said a senior BJP leader, highlighting how the state leadership was ensuring the engagement of party workers as part of ground-level preparations. The BJP leader said that after a broader assessment of the prevailing ground-level situation is done, the party brass will start deploying teams of key party functionaries to bolster the grassroots campaign. This poll groundwork will include booth-level empowerment to fortify the party's presence at the grassroots level and the outreach campaigns, including the ones like 'Gaon Chalo Abhiyan' to engage with rural voters and the 'Beneficiaries Sampark Abhiyan' to connect with recipients of govt welfare schemes. Likewise, the party plans a digital engagement to facilitate direct communication with ground-level workers and enhance the dissemination of campaign messages. The party also plans to chart out a Caste-Based Mobilisation campaign in response to the Samajwadi Party's successful caste-based outreach. The BJP, experts said, sought to sharpen its focus on non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits, and Brahmins to consolidate its support base. Sources said that the party sought to work on a two-pronged strategy of Hindutva-driven nationalism as well as a caste-based poll narrative. While the recent terror attack in Pahalgam has already stroked the saffron pantheon to play up its nationalist agenda to the core, the BJP govt's recent decision to conduct caste enumeration in the forthcoming census has armed the saffron party to factor in caste dynamics in the overall scheme of things.
The Hindu
21-04-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Can Nitish Kumar Survive the 2025 Bihar Political Storm?
Published : Apr 21, 2025 19:34 IST - 9 MINS READ With just six months to go before the Bihar Assembly election, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, looks jaded. He faces serious questions about his health, and the NDA's social coalition appears fractured by the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) Muslim-Yadav-plus consolidation strategy. The latest blow to Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), came when the party backed the controversial waqf amendment law. In its immediate aftermath, five Muslim leaders resigned, and the decision sparked resentment among several members of the party. The leaders who quit were Mohammad Qasim Ansari, State secretary of minority cell Mohammad Shahnawaz Malik, Bettiah (West Champaran) district vice president Nadeem Akhtar, State general secretary (minority cell) Mohammad Tabrez Siddiqui, and party member from Bhojpur Mohammad Dilshan Rayeen. JD(U) MLC Ghulam Ghaus termed the Act unconstitutional and urged President Droupadi Murmu to repeal it. Also Read | Will Nitish Kumar remain the face of the NDA in the Bihar Assembly election? Qasim Ansari's resignation letter to Nitish Kumar dominated the headlines, but senior JD(U) leaders dismissed the issue, preferring to recall that when Ansari contested the 2020 election from the Dhaka Assembly seat in East Champaran district on the kite symbol (of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), he had won only 499 votes. While it is true that those who resigned are not top-level leaders, their decision to quit points to a growing sense of disillusionment among Muslim voters with Nitish Kumar, who, despite his alliance with the BJP, has long enjoyed their goodwill. By backing the waqf law, the JD(U) has clearly indicated that it does not want to rock the NDA boat in the State. Muslim resentment However, the resignations do not augur well for the JD(U) in an election year, particularly when the battle lines have become sharper, with a resurgent RJD reaching out to non-Yadav communities among the Other Backward Classes in a big way and Muslims solidly backing the Lalu Prasad-Tejashwi Yadav duo. Only a few months ago, Ali Anwar Ansari, two-term Rajya Sabha member from the JD(U) and leader of the Pasmanda Muslim Samaj, resigned to join the Congress. The RJD-Congress combine is expected to use Ansari's popularity to rope in Pasmanda (backward) Muslim votes. In Bihar, power revolves around three major poles: the BJP, the RJD, and the JD(U). Smaller players such as the Congress, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), or LJP(RV), Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party add weight to whichever alliance they join. So far it has been a case of two groups coming together and forming the government. While the BJP and the RJD have never been in an alliance, the JD(U) has changed sides several times, altering the power dynamics in the State. Between 2013 and 2024, Nitish Kumar changed sides four times, earning himself the sobriquet of 'Paltu Ram', or side-switcher. After his last return to the BJP combine in 2024, Nitish Kumar has been at pains to counter growing rumours of yet another change of sides. In March, in the presence of Home Minister Amit Shah, he declared that he had 'erred twice' and promised to stay with the BJP permanently. Previously, he had given such assurances to Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself during public meetings. Modi's decision to do a small roadshow with Nitish Kumar in February in Bhagalpur was also aimed at scotching such speculation. For now, the BJP has stalled the possibility of Nitish Kumar making another switch to the RJD, but what is worrying for the saffron party is his declining political currency. JD(U) powerhouse Whether in the party or in the government, Nitish Kumar has never left anyone in doubt about where the JD(U)'s fulcrum of power lay. In December 2023, he underscored this when he secured the resignation of party president Rajiv Ranjan Singh, alias Lalan Singh, and donned the party chief role for the second time. In April 2016, Nitish had replaced the longest-serving JD(U) president, Sharad Yadav (who served 3 terms and over 10 years), against his wishes. Ironically, it was Nitish Kumar who made Sharad Yadav party president in 2006, replacing firebrand leader George Fernandes, who had been party president since 2003 and head of its predecessor, the Samata Party, since 1994 when it was formed. Nitish Kumar has always managed to gain the upper hand while handling rebellion, whether from his own aide-turned-rebel Upendra Kushwaha, R.C.P. Singh in the party, or Jitan Ram Manjhi in the government. He has also been taking the high moral ground by not promoting any family member in politics. (The nearest parallel to Nitish Kumar is Naveen Patnaik of Odisha.) There has been no charge of dynastic politics against him, until now that is. Early this year, his son Nishant Kumar emerged from the shadows and started making his political presence felt, giving rise to the speculation that Nitish Kumar was preparing to hand over the reins in view of his failing health. Videos showing him faltering and forgetting are making the rounds on social media. Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, learning from their 2015 Assembly election defeat, the BJP wooed Nitish Kumar by offering him 16 seats despite the 2 his party had won in 2014. Nitish Kumar has been Chief Minister in governments supported by either the RJD or the BJP even when those parties have had a greater number of seats than the JD(U). Also Read | Bihar and the new kid on the block Now, in 2025, the BJP has again stooped to conquer, announcing Nitish Kumar as the face of the NDA in Bihar. This is a surprise, especially in light of Amit Shah's cryptic comment in a television interview earlier, saying 'we will sit together and decide', in response to a question on who would lead the coalition in Bihar. The RJD, too, despite repeated snubs, has not tired of stating that its doors are open for Nitish Kumar. Or, rather, Lalu Prasad says so, but Tejashwi Yadav opposes it. Women's support Nitish Kumar's strength lies in continued support from large sections of women voters across caste lines, thanks to steps such as prohibition, seat reservation for women in panchayats, and welfare measures like bicycles to school-going girls. In addition, through special programmes, he has strengthened his grip over non-Yadav Extremely Backward Classes and Mahadalits. The JD(U)'s hold over 15 per cent of the votes helps the NDA become a winning combination, as it adds to the BJP and other allies' 20 per cent vote share, and nullifies the RJD-Congress advantage of starting with a base of nearly 30 per cent of the votes from Muslims and Yadavs. However, one sees a decline in JD(U)'s vote share in Assembly elections. In the 2005 and 2010 Assembly elections, when it contested in alliance with the BJP, the party got over 20 per cent and 22 per cent of votes. In 2015, this dropped to 17 per cent when it was in alliance with the RJD; and in 2020, the JD(U) got just 15.7 per cent when in alliance with the BJP. The declining vote share directly translated also into a fall in the number of seats: from a peak of 115 seats in 2010, the party won 71 in 2015 and just 43 seats in 2020. In contrast, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it was the RJD that scored the maximum vote percentage among all parties with 22.14 per cent. Declining clout As early as 2013, in his book Bihar Breakthrough, Rajesh Chakrabarti said: 'It would, however, be a mistake to think that the population in Bihar today extols Nitish the same way as it did going into the previous election. The gains brought by the administration have already been absorbed in the general psyche and the expectations from the government are much higher than in the Lalu era. The public is ironically less grateful than expecting... at times the discontent has boiled over to a point where Nitish's convoy has been stoned during the Seva Yatra.' Nitish possibly read the writing on the wall in 2015, which is why he decided to join hands with the same Lalu Prasad whose misgovernance he had made the main plank of his politics. The victory that year of the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD and the Congress, aided by the election strategist Prashant Kishor, was as such a more complex verdict than a simple barometer of Nitish Kumar's popularity. By 2020, the JD(U) had declined further. Now, Prashant Kishor has formed his own party. Not surprisingly, doubts are being raised in multiple quarters about Nitish Kumar's prospects of being projected as the chief ministerial candidate in 2025 and whether such a move will actually benefit the alliance. Two decades is a long period in politics and there are indications of anti-incumbency having caught up with Nitish Kumar. For instance, despite the Congress being only a minor player in Bihar, its stop-migration-give-jobs yatra that started on March 16 in Champaran has gained good traction. Champaran is the land of Mahatma Gandhi's indigo agitation during the freedom movement. The political symbolism of the venue is strong. Prashant Kishor too had started his yatra under the banner of Jan Suraaj to connect with the masses from the same place. Still a force to reckon with Nitish Kumar's supporters, on their part, cite the 2024 Lok Sabha election when JD(U) had won 12 of 16 seats it contested to buttress the point that he still counts. When doubts were being expressed about projecting Nitish Kumar as the leader of NDA in Bihar, his supporters came out in support in December last year, coining the slogan, 'Jab baat Bihar ki ho, naam sirf Nitish Kumar ka ho' (When it is about Bihar, Nitish Kumar should be the only name), during their leader's Pragati Yatra, which too started from Champaran. Clearly, 2025 is the toughest election battle that Nitish Kumar is facing. But a confident JD(U) has come out with bold posters screaming '25 se 30, phir se Nitish' (it is Nitish again from 2025 to 2030). Speaking to Frontline on Nitish Kumar's strengths and why he remains relevant, Amitabh Tiwari, political commentator and election strategist, said: 'Nitish Kumar is a force multiplier; whichever party the JD(U) aligns with goes on to form the government. Bihar's caste equations and societal conditions give him the political manoeuvrability to switch sides successfully.' Also Read | Bihar 2025: No cakewalk for BJP, RJD or Nitish Kumar He added: 'His core base has remained more or less intact and he also brings a section of the Pasmanda Muslim votes due to his secular image. This won't change because of Waqf.' He also said that the BJP has been piggybacking on Nitish Kumar for the past 20 years and does not have a leader to match him or Tejashwi Yadav. 'No BJP leader has a pan-State appeal. The BJP can't touch the magical figure on its own. Even a weakened Nitish still commands a crucial 12-15 per cent vote share. The RJD has been struggling to expand its vote base beyond Muslims and Yadavs,' he said, adding that Nitish Kumar brings acceptability and adds legitimacy to any alliance he joins. Whether Nitish Kumar can work his magic one last time and silence the naysayers is keeping all the political pundits guessing.
