How ‘Rebel Ridge' became the Emmy frontrunner for Best TV Movie

Is Rebel Ridge about to follow in the Emmy-winning footsteps of Quiz Lady, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, and ... Chip 'n Dale: Rescue Rangers?
The Netflix telefilm has held the No. 1 spot in Gold Derby's Best TV Movie odds all season long, despite increasingly fierce competition from the likes of Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Out of My Mind, Mountainhead, Am I OK?, and The Gorge. Why? Perhaps Rebel Ridge is still coasting off its awards juice from earlier in the season, where it claimed prizes at the Critics Choice Awards (Best TV Movie) and Image Awards (Best Actor for Aaron Pierre), and scored nominations from the Producers Guild and Writers Guild, among others.
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The action thriller stars Pierre as Terry Richmond, a former Marine who has a run-in with a small town's corrupt and racist police force, including Don Johnson's Chief Sandy Burnne. The cast is rounded out by AnnaSophia Robb, David Denman, Emory Cohen, Steve Zissis, Zsané Jhé, Dana Lee, and James Cromwell. The movie has a 95 percent at Rotten Tomatoes, with critics calling it "an intelligent and gripping vehicle for Aaron Pierre's star-making performance." It became one of Netflix's most-watched films of 2024, with 129 million streams.
Rebel Ridge is written, produced, directed, and edited by Jeremy Saulnier, the Cannes-winning filmmaker whose prior movies include Murder Party (2007), Blue Ruin (2013), Green Room (2015), and Hold the Dark (2018). On the TV front, he's best known for directing and producing True Detective Season 3, which was considered a return to form for the HBO limited series. With Saulnier in charge, Rebel Ridge is a few notches above your everyday TV movie.
Gold Derby
This Emmy category has drawn backlash in recent years, particularly with light-hearted fare like Chip 'n Dale: Rescue Rangers (2022) and Dolly Parton's Christmas on the Square (2021) winning. Contemporary TV movies are rarely nominated in other categories, suggesting a general weakness for this fare both above- and below-the-line. One notable exception was 2023's well-respected Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, a satiric biopic starring Daniel Radcliffe as the Grammy-winning musician, brought a sense of cachet back to the race with its eight nominations and two wins (Best TV Movie and Best Music Composition). That was followed by Quiz Lady last year, a dramedy starring Awkwafina and Sandra Oh as estranged sisters who try to win money to pay off their mother's debt that received decidedly mixed reviews and no nominations outside the category.
But as the first phase of Emmy voting nears, there are signs that the race could tighten.
If Gold Derby's odds are any indication, the current lineup of Best TV Movie contenders could result in one of the category's most exciting Emmy races in years. Our 21 experts from major media outlets are divided on this category, with the following four telefilms each receiving No. 1 votes:
Ten experts predict Rebel Ridge: Ben Travers (Indiewire), Dave Nemetz (TVLine), Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Matt Brennan (L.A. Times), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Peter Travers (ABC), Tariq Khan (KSDK), and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV)
Nine experts predict Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy: Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Eric Deggans (NPR), Gregory Ellwood (The Playlist), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Kate Erbland (Indiewire), Kristen Baldwin (Entertainment Weekly), Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox), Susan King (freelance), and Thelma Adams (freelance)
One expert predicts Mountainhead: Matt Roush (TV Guide)
One expert predicts Out of My Mind: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby)
Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy is the fourth installment in the Bridget Jones film series, with Renée Zellweger returning as the titular love-stricken British woman. The first three films made $759 million worldwide in theaters, but this latest installment was only released theatrically overseas. Here in the United States, it can be streamed on Peacock.
Mountainhead is Jesse Armstrong's highly anticipated first film project since winning seven Emmy Awards for Succession (four for writing, three for producing). The HBO movie follows four wealthy tech billionaires — played by Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman, Cory Michael Smith, and Ramy Youssef — who meet at a swanky ski resort amid a global crisis. It'll be released on May 31, the last day of Emmy eligibility.
Out of My Mind, like Rebel Ridge, is a TV movie that's already hit it big on the awards circuit. It received noms at the Critics Choice and Writers Guild Awards, and won for Amber Sealey at the Directors Guild Awards. It also claimed the Peabody Award for Children's/Youth Program and the Television Academy Honors for inspiring social change. The Disney+ film stars Phoebe-Rae Taylor as a middle schooler with cerebral palsy whose inner thoughts are spoken by Jennifer Aniston. Of all the films in the category, Out of My Mind has seen the biggest spike in predictions in recent days and is trending upwards at the perfect time, narrowing the gap with Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy and closing in on second place in the odds.
Let us know what you think of this year's Best TV Movie race by sounding off in our TV forum. Make your predictions at Gold Derby right now.
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