NASA raises the odds that an asteroid could hit the moon in 2032
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Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the highest impact risk to Earth ever recorded, is back in the spotlight — this time due to a slight increase in the chance that it could impact the moon in 2032.
Although now too distant to observe from Earth, the asteroid briefly came into view in May for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Using data from the telescope's Near-Infrared Camera, a team led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory refined predictions of where 2024 YR4 will be on Dec. 22, 2032 by nearly 20%. That revised trajectory nudged the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to a NASA update.
"As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve," the statement read. Even if a collision occurs, "it would not alter the moon's orbit."
Astronomer Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru, agrees the moon is safe, noting a collision with the moon "won't be a cause for concern" because any moon debris blasted into space from the impact "blow up in Earth's atmosphere if any of it makes it to near-Earth space."
First detected on Dec. 27 last year, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 174 to 220 feet long (53 to 67 meters), or about the size of a 10-story building. The asteroid quickly grabbed headlines for having more than a 1% chance of striking Earth, the highest recorded for any large asteroid. Follow-up observations in January and February saw the impact risk climb from 1.2% to a peak of 3.1%.
The asteroid's projected trajectory at the time suggested it could cause blast damage across a wide potential impact zone, spanning the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa and southern Asia. If it enters Earth's atmosphere over the ocean, NASA estimated it would be unlikely to trigger significant tsunamis, but an airburst over a populated city could shatter windows and cause minor structural damage.
However, the impact risk dropped sharply as additional orbital data came in. By Feb. 19, the probability had fallen to 1.5%, and then to 0.3% the next day. On Feb. 24, NASA announced an official "all clear" on social media, reporting the impact probability had dropped to just 0.004% and that the asteroid is "expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032."
Further analysis has since allowed scientists to rule out any risk to Earth, not only in 2032 but from all future close approaches as well. Data from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii recently suggested the space rock originated in the central main belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually shifted into a near-Earth orbit.
Since mid-April, the asteroid has been too far away and too faint to be seen from Earth. It will swing back into view in 2028, giving scientists another chance to observe the asteroid and further refine its orbit using both JWST and ground-based telescopes. In particular, scientists will aim to gather more data on its shape and composition, which are key factors in understanding both its behavior and potential impact effects.
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While 2024 YR4 no longer poses any danger, it provided scientists with a rare, real-world opportunity to rehearse the full scope of planetary defense strategy, ranging from initial detection and risk analysis to public messaging. It was "an actual end-to-end exercise" for how we might respond to a potentially hazardous asteroid in the future, said Kumar.
"2024 YR4 is a tailor-made asteroid for planetary defense efforts," he said. "It has everything it takes to get our attention."
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'NSF-DOE Rubin Observatory will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined,' said National Science Foundation Chief of Staff Brian Stone, who is currently performing the duties of the NSF director (as the position is currently vacant). Among the observatory's initial accomplishments was the discovery of 2,104 asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids, that have never been seen before in our solar system. None of the newly found near-Earth asteroids pose a risk to our planet, according to scientists at the observatory. Imagery of the asteroids is expected to be shared later Monday. While ground- and space-based telescopes spot about 20,000 asteroids each year, Rubin Observatory is expected to uncover millions of the space rocks within its first two years, according to the National Science Foundation. 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'NSF-DOE Rubin Observatory will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined,' said National Science Foundation Chief of Staff Brian Stone, who is currently performing the duties of the NSF director (as the position is currently vacant). Among the observatory's initial accomplishments was the discovery of 2,104 asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids, that have never been seen before in our solar system. None of the newly found near-Earth asteroids pose a risk to our planet, according to scientists at the observatory. Imagery of the asteroids is expected to be shared later Monday. While ground- and space-based telescopes spot about 20,000 asteroids each year, Rubin Observatory is expected to uncover millions of the space rocks within its first two years, according to the National Science Foundation. The telescope is also considered the most effective way to spot any interstellar comets or asteroids that may travel through our solar system. The observatory's mirror design, sensitive camera and telescope speed are all the first of its kind, enabling Rubin to spot tiny, faint objects such as asteroids. The observatory will also constantly take thousands of images every night, cataloging changes in brightness to reveal otherwise hidden space rocks like near-Earth asteroids that could be on a collision course with our planet, according to the foundation. A sneak peek shared Monday includes a video made from over 1,100 images captured by the observatory that begins with a detailed look at two galaxies. The video then zooms out to showcase about 10 million galaxies spotted by the camera's wide view — roughly 0.05% of the 20 billion galaxies Rubin will observe over 10 years. The observatory team also released a mosaic of the Trifid and Lagoon nebulae, which are star-forming regions that resemble clouds located in the Sagittarius constellation. The mosaic, made up of 678 separate images taken over just seven hours, captured faint and previously invisible details such as clouds of gas and dust in the nebulae, which are several thousand light-years away from Earth. The initial images were selected to showcase the telescope's enormous field of view, which enables detailed glimpses of interacting galaxies as well as broad views of millions of galaxies, said Dr. Yusra AlSayyad, deputy associate director of the data management subsystem for the Rubin Observatory. 'It has such a wide field of view and such a rapid cadence that you do have that movielike aspect to the night sky,' said Dr. Sandrine Thomas, telescope project scientist for the Rubin Observatory. The observatory, located in the Andes on the top of Cerro Pachón in Chile, is nearly complete after about two decades of work. The facility is set to achieve 'first light,' or make the first scientific observations of the Southern Hemisphere's sky using its 8.4-meter (27.5-foot) Simonyi Survey Telescope, on July 4. The telescope's location in the Southern Hemisphere allows for a great view of the Milky Way's galactic center, said Edward Ajhar, Rubin Observatory's program officer. The region in central Chile has also been home to other ground-based observatories and is favored for astronomical observations because it affords dry air and dark skies. The observatory's main objective is the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, an ultrawide and ultra-high-definition movie of the universe made by scanning the entire sky every few nights over 10 years to capture a time-lapse compilation of whizzing asteroids and comets, exploding stars, and distant galaxies as they change. The survey is expected to begin between four to seven months after first light. '(Rubin) will enable us to explore galaxies, stars in the Milky Way, objects in the solar system, and all in a truly new way. Since we take images of the night sky so quickly and so often, (it) will detect millions of changing objects literally every night,' said Dr. Aaron Roodman, professor of particle physics and astrophysics at Stanford University's SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in California. Roodman was responsible for the assembly and testing of Rubin Observatory's camera. Rubin's capabilities to spot interesting phenomena will also enable it to be a 'discovery machine' that can identify interesting areas of focus for other telescopes, Roodman said. The observatory could also enable the detection of previously unknown types of celestial objects. The telescope's namesake, considered to be one of the most influential women astronomers, provided some of the first evidence that dark matter existed. In Rubin's honor, the telescope is expected to continue her pioneering work. 'Through this remarkable scientific facility, we will explore many cosmic mysteries, including the dark matter and dark energy that permeate the universe,' Stone said. Dark matter is an enigmatic substance that shapes the cosmos, while dark energy is a force that accelerates the expansion rate of the universe, according to NASA. Though they are thought to make up most of the cosmos, both are impossible to directly observe but can be detected due to their gravitational effects. 'Rubin has enormous potential to help us learn what dark energy really is and how the universe's expansion is accelerating here, too,' Roodman said. 'Rubin's unique ability to see billions of galaxies and to image them repeatedly over 10 years will literally enable us to see the universe in a new way.'
