Latest news with #JohnsHopkinsAppliedPhysicsLaboratory
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
'City-Killer' Asteroid Even More Likely to Hit The Moon in 2032
An asteroid that burst onto the scene with an unusually high risk of striking Earth has just had its collision risk upgraded. In February 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4's maximum collision risk with our homeworld when it swoops back around in 2032 was projected to be 3.1 percent. Now its collision risk has risen to 4.3 percent – not with Earth, but the Moon. That's not particularly high, sure. But it's high enough to be pretty exciting. This impact wouldn't destroy the Moon or even affect its orbit; but it would be scientifically interesting to see the formation process of a large crater (and also really cool). 2024 YR4 announced itself with a bang. Initial calculations of its trajectory found that it could collide with Earth in December 2032. The risk wasn't huge, but 3.1 percent is still alarmingly high for an event that could wipe out a city – the chunk of rock measures between 53 and 67 meters (174 and 220 feet), comparable to the size of the asteroid that devastated Tunguska in 1908. Thankfully, it didn't take long for that risk to be downgraded to less than a fraction of a fraction of a percent, effectively ruling out the possibility of an Earth-2024 YR4 collision entirely. The Moon, however, remained in the firing line, with a collision risk of 3.8 percent. Now, using new JWST observations obtained in May 2025, astronomers led by Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory have refined that calculation, bumping the risk to 4.3 percent. That's probably still not the final word on the matter; tracing an asteroid's trajectory takes repeated observations, and 2024 YR4 is now too far away for us to see. It comes around close to Earth every four years, so astronomers are going to have another opportunity to observe it closely in December 2028. We'll know with more precision then how likely the chunk of space rock is to smack into our satellite and give us a wild show (and a bunch of science). The Center of Our Universe Does Not Exist. A Physicist Explains Why. Stunning Direct Images of Alien Worlds Are Detailed Enough to Reveal Clouds Stunning 'Solar Curtains' Phenomenon Revealed on The Sun in New Images
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
An asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Chances Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Will Hit Moon Increase But Earth Remains In The Clear In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth. The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4. JWST data, along with expert analysis from Nasa's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid's orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%. In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%. However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions. Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb's view for article source: Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
Daily Record
10-06-2025
- Science
- Daily Record
NASA issues major update on 'city-killer' asteroid 2024's chance of crashing into the Moon
If the asteroid was on track to smash into our planet in 2032, its impact would be devastating for humanity NASA has raised the odds that a massive asteroid, about the size of a 10-storey building, could collide with Earth's Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, initially posed a potential risk to Earth in 2032. However, recent updates from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies indicate an increased likelihood that it could strike the Moon instead. And now, the space agency has revealed whether it could disrupt the Moon's orbit. While asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun. With the additional data, experts got greater insight into where the rock - as big as London's Big Ben - will be on December 22, 2032, by nearly 20 per cent. As a result, the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has increased from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent. While this still leaves a 95.7 percent chance of the asteroid missing the Moon, the small possibility of a collision has caught scientists' attention. Despite the risk, in the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit. When asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it had a small chance of impacting Earth. After more observations, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. As is common with asteroid predictions, the chances of an impact often fluctuate, rising and falling as new data emerges. To that end, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve, NASA assured. The 100-metre wide rock once had a 3.1 per cent probability of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, potentially leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. If the asteroid was on track to smack into our planet in 2032, its impact would be catastrophic. The energy released could be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, destroying an area the size of Washington, DC. An eight-megaton explosion would be over 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War Two, which had a yield of approximately 15 kilotons (0.015 megatons). NASA was reportedly concerned at one point that the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth might surpass the 20 per cent threshold at one point. In February, the huge space rock's were reduced from an earlier estimate of 131-295 feet (40-90 metres) to a more accurate range of 174-220 feet (53-67 metres) - roughly the size of a 10-storey building. An international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the most recent observations using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make further observations when the asteroid's orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth in 2028. Join the Daily Record WhatsApp community! Get the latest news sent straight to your messages by joining our WhatsApp community today. You'll receive daily updates on breaking news as well as the top headlines across Scotland. No one will be able to see who is signed up and no one can send messages except the Daily Record team. All you have to do is click here if you're on mobile, select 'Join Community' and you're in! If you're on a desktop, simply scan the QR code above with your phone and click 'Join Community'. We also treat our community members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don't like our community, you can check out any time you like. To leave our community click on the name at the top of your screen and choose 'exit group'.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA raises the odds that an asteroid could hit the moon in 2032
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the highest impact risk to Earth ever recorded, is back in the spotlight — this time due to a slight increase in the chance that it could impact the moon in 2032. Although now too distant to observe from Earth, the asteroid briefly came into view in May for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Using data from the telescope's Near-Infrared Camera, a team led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory refined predictions of where 2024 YR4 will be on Dec. 22, 2032 by nearly 20%. That revised trajectory nudged the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to a NASA update. "As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve," the statement read. Even if a collision occurs, "it would not alter the moon's orbit." Astronomer Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru, agrees the moon is safe, noting a collision with the moon "won't be a cause for concern" because any moon debris blasted into space from the impact "blow up in Earth's atmosphere if any of it makes it to near-Earth space." First detected on Dec. 27 last year, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 174 to 220 feet long (53 to 67 meters), or about the size of a 10-story building. The asteroid quickly grabbed headlines for having more than a 1% chance of striking Earth, the highest recorded for any large asteroid. Follow-up observations in January and February saw the impact risk climb from 1.2% to a peak of 3.1%. The asteroid's projected trajectory at the time suggested it could cause blast damage across a wide potential impact zone, spanning the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa and southern Asia. If it enters Earth's atmosphere over the ocean, NASA estimated it would be unlikely to trigger significant tsunamis, but an airburst over a populated city could shatter windows and cause minor structural damage. However, the impact risk dropped sharply as additional orbital data came in. By Feb. 19, the probability had fallen to 1.5%, and then to 0.3% the next day. On Feb. 24, NASA announced an official "all clear" on social media, reporting the impact probability had dropped to just 0.004% and that the asteroid is "expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032." Further analysis has since allowed scientists to rule out any risk to Earth, not only in 2032 but from all future close approaches as well. Data from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii recently suggested the space rock originated in the central main belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually shifted into a near-Earth orbit. Since mid-April, the asteroid has been too far away and too faint to be seen from Earth. It will swing back into view in 2028, giving scientists another chance to observe the asteroid and further refine its orbit using both JWST and ground-based telescopes. In particular, scientists will aim to gather more data on its shape and composition, which are key factors in understanding both its behavior and potential impact effects. RELATED STORIES — Odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 just went up. Here's why experts say you shouldn't worry — Asteroid apocalypse: How big must a space rock be to end human civilization? — Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 While 2024 YR4 no longer poses any danger, it provided scientists with a rare, real-world opportunity to rehearse the full scope of planetary defense strategy, ranging from initial detection and risk analysis to public messaging. It was "an actual end-to-end exercise" for how we might respond to a potentially hazardous asteroid in the future, said Kumar. "2024 YR4 is a tailor-made asteroid for planetary defense efforts," he said. "It has everything it takes to get our attention."
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Business Standard
23-05-2025
- Science
- Business Standard
Dragonfly to Titan: Nasa's bold mission to unlock life's ancient recipe
Nasa is gearing up to send a flying robot named Dragonfly to Titan, Saturn's largest moon, in 2028. Roughly the size of a car, this unique rotorcraft isn't built to find aliens – but to explore the chemical clues that could reveal how life first emerged in the universe. Life as we know it can't survive on Titan, where temperatures plunge to minus 292 degrees Fahrenheit. Yet the moon has lakes and rivers – not of water, but of liquid methane and ethane. Even its sand isn't made of silicates like on Earth, but of tiny organic particles, making it a chemically rich but alien world. Unlike Earth, Titan is untouched by biology, and hence it holds some older secrets. Due to a lack of human touch, Titan offers a pure prebiotic chemistry, which makes this mission immensely meaningful. Nasa's Dragonfly to search life's origin in Titan Titan comprises the right ingredients – organics, water and energy. Nasa's previous Cassini mission showed how rich Titan is in molecules such as acetylene, ethane, cyanogen and more in the skies. These molecules fall and collect on the icy surface below. Dragonfly is supposed to land close to Selk crater, a 50-mile-wide site. Scientists believe water once flowed there after an impact. It is also believed that the melted ice may have stayed liquid for centuries. The water would have lasted longer if ammonia were present there, creating a perfect soup of water, organics and minerals. The Selk crater could reveal ancient chemical steps that may have led to life on Earth. On our planet, these signs are erased by microbes over a period of time. But Titan preserved them, frozen in time and chemistry. Probing for complexity, not life The Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS) is central to the mission, not to detect life itself, but to search for signs of complex chemistry. It will analyse chemical patterns, such as those found in amino acids, where increased complexity could hint at prebiotic processes. On barren worlds, simpler amino acids are typically more common. By conventional standards, Titan isn't considered habitable. It's extremely cold and lacks liquid water on its surface. Still, the possibility remains that chemistry alone could spark life. If Titan challenges this assumption, it could transform our understanding of life's origins. To quote Zibi Turtle, principal investigator for Dragonfly and a planetary scientist at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, 'Dragonfly isn't a mission to detect life — it's a mission to investigate the chemistry that came before biology here on Earth'. 'On Titan, we can explore the chemical processes that may have led to life on Earth without life complicating the picture,' he says. Dragonfly is under construction at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Goddard Space Center contributing significantly. The mission is led by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. Dragonfly won't deliver immediate answers, but it could offer vital clues about how life begins. Amid Titan's icy landscape, we may uncover reflections of our own beginnings.
