Latest news with #2024YR4
Perth Now
9 hours ago
- Science
- Perth Now
Deadly asteroid could crash into the moon in a few years
A death-defying asteroid could crash into the moon. 2024 YR4 - the up to 300ft-wide chunk of space rock - was originally on course to crash down on Earth on December 22, 2032, but the James Webb Space Telescope ruled that this was not going to happen. Now, according to its course, the asteroid could slam into the moon in late December 2032. However, NASA only thinks there is a four per cent chance of this happening. Astronomers previously predicted that 2024 YR4 - which was zooming down towards the planet at 38,000 mph - had a 2.3 per cent (one-in-43) before its original 1.2 per cent chance of crashing down on the planet on December 22, 2032. Some even scrambled to come up with a plan to fend off the up to 300ft-wide chunk of space rock, with expert David Rankin stressing that people should not worry about it because it will start "falling at some point". Now, scientists from the European Space Agency have confirmed the menace - which was detected on December 27, 2024 - affecting us has a 0.001 per cent chance of doing so. Professor Richard Binzel, the creator of the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, of which 2024 YR4 has dropped from Level 3 to Level 0, said: "That's impact probability zero, folks." Even though it is currently 27 million miles away, it has been said it will return to our orbit in 2032.
NDTV
11 hours ago
- Science
- NDTV
'City-Killer' Asteroid May Hit Moon, Hurl Deadly Debris Toward Earth
NASA scientists now believe that asteroid 2024 YR4, once thought to pose a slight threat to Earth, may instead collide with the Moon in the coming years. New calculations suggest a 4.3% chance of impact in 2031. First detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Hawaii, YR4 passed close to Earth just two days earlier. It orbits the Sun every four years. Recent observations in May 2025 from the James Webb Space Telescope estimate the asteroid's size between 174 and 220 feet (53-67 metres), roughly the height of a 10-storey building or the wingspan of a Boeing 747. Earlier estimates ranged from 131 to 295 feet. Data from NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicate the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon has steadily risen from 1.7% in February to 3.8% in April, and now to 4.3%. If it does impact the Moon, it's expected to strike the near side, offering a rare chance for scientists to observe crater formation in real time. For now, YR4 is too distant to be tracked by telescopes. It will next approach Earth again in December 2028. "While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time," the researchers wrote in their preliminary report, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered rare, once holding over a 1% impact probability-an extremely unusual threat level. NASA data suggests such an event would occur roughly once in 1,000 years. It's been compared to asteroid Apophis, which once ranked Level 4 on the Torino scale. Apophis will pass close to Earth in 2029, offering a rare visual encounter.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA raises chance for asteroid to hit the moon
June 19 (UPI) -- NASA has announced that an asteroid about 200 feet in diameter is now slightly more likely to crash into the moon. According to the newest data collected, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has refined the expected course for Asteroid 2024 YR4 and has given it an increased 4.3% probability of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The original likelihood was at 3.8% probability. The space rock is too far off in space to be detected with ground telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which orbits the sun, was able to take a new look at the space rock earlier this month before it was obscured from view. It was that opportunity that provided the data that led to the changed forecast. Due to YR4's solar orbit, NASA won't be able to view it again until it comes back around the sun in 2028. According to a research paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals and published Monday, should the asteroid hit the moon, it could cause a crater as large as around 3,200 feet and release 6.5 megatons of energy. As much as 220 million pounds of lunar material could be released by such an impact, and then as much as 10% of that ejecta could fall to Earth a few days later, so "meteorites are unlikely, though not impossible" according to the paper, but it would create an "eye-catching" meteor shower. However, any moon bits that do come toward the Earth also could increase the meteoroid impact exposure faced by satellites in near-Earth orbit for as long as a decade.
UPI
a day ago
- Science
- UPI
NASA raises chance for asteroid to hit the moon
An artist's illustration of the James Webb Space in space. According to new data, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has increased the likelihood that an object called Asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon in 2032. NASA Photo/UPI | License Photo June 19 (UPI) -- NASA has announced that an asteroid about 200 feet in diameter is now slightly more likely to crash into the moon. According to the newest data collected, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has refined the expected course for Asteroid 2024 YR4 and has given it an increased 4.3% probability of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The original likelihood was at 3.8% probability. The space rock is too far off in space to be detected with ground telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which orbits the sun, was able to take a new look at the space rock earlier this month before it was obscured from view. It was that opportunity that provided the data that led to the changed forecast. Due to YR4's solar orbit, NASA won't be able to view it again until it comes back around the sun in 2028. According to a research paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals and published Monday, should the asteroid hit the moon, it could cause a crater as large as around 3,200 feet and release 6.5 megatons of energy. As much as 220 million pounds of lunar material could be released by such an impact, and then as much as 10% of that ejecta could fall to Earth a few days later, so "meteorites are unlikely, though not impossible" according to the paper, but it would create an "eye-catching" meteor shower. However, any moon bits that do come toward the Earth also could increase the meteoroid impact exposure faced by satellites in near-Earth orbit for as long as a decade.
The Independent
3 days ago
- Science
- The Independent
‘City killer' asteroid on collision course with Moon could damage satellites
New observations of the 'city killer' asteroid once thought to be on a collision course with the Earth indicate it will miss the planet but strike the Moon and pose 'potential danger' to satellites. Recent estimates of the building-sized space rock's trajectory suggest it has a 4 per cent chance of hitting the lunar surface in December 2032. Astronomers, including from the University of Western Ontario, estimate in a new study that such an impact may release energy equivalent to 6.5 megatons of TNT and produce a lunar crater nearly 1km in diameter. In comparison, the atomic bombing of Hiroshima by the US in 1945 produced explosive energy equivalent to nearly 0.015 megatons of TNT. A strike from the space rock, called 2024 YR4, could generate a lunar debris cloud weighing over 100,000,000kg, according to the yet-to-be peer-reviewed study. As much as 10 per cent of this debris could 'accrete to the Earth on timescales of a few days'. And, depending on the impact location of the asteroid on the Moon, the lunar ejecta could expose satellites to meteorites for years. 'Of primary concern are ejecta particles above the impact hazard threshold (0.1 mm) for satellites delivered directly to low Earth orbit on relatively short timescales – days to months – and that could pose a hazard to spacecraft," the study states. The risk posed to satellites would depend on several factors, including the location of the impact, size of the lunar crater, the amount of material ejected by the collision, and the size distribution of the escaped ejecta. Of these factors, the study notes, location of the impact was the most critical. 'Because the moon is orbiting the Earth at approximately 1km per second, for ejected material to reach Earth quickly, the impacting object needs to hit the trailing edge of the moon,' it says. The impact should also happen in a way that the ejected material's velocity 'largely cancels out the moon's orbital velocity'. The study simulates 10,000 clones of the asteroid taking different trajectories and in 410 of them, the space rock strikes the Moon. If the asteroid does strike the Moon, it is likely to do so in the southern hemisphere. Analysing the 410 potential impact scenarios reveals that there is a significant probability of a 2024 YR4 strike delivering 10 per cent of the impact debris to near-Earth space, posing risks to astronauts and spacecraft. 'This will all occur during the few days of maximum ejecta delivery from a 2024 YR4 impact," researchers say. Since the number of satellites orbiting the Earth is increasing exponentially, the debris may pose an even greater threat by 2032. 'Given the very large total exposed area for satellites by 2032,' the new study warns, 'it becomes possible that hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris ejected by a lunar impact from 2024 YR4 will be experienced across the entire satellite fleet.' Based on the new findings, researchers call for measures being taken to safeguard the Earth from dangerous asteroids to be extended to protect the Moon.
