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Politico
3 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Iran's nuclear Rorschach test
With help from John Sakellariadis, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Programming note: We'll be off this Thursday but will be back in your inboxes on Friday. Is Iran close to developing a nuclear weapon with its vast stockpiles of highly enriched uranium? The answer depends on who you ask. Israeli officials insist that new intelligence, shared with the United States, indicates that Iran was racing to build a nuclear weapon. Their U.S. counterparts are less convinced. In March, Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD told lawmakers that 'Iran is not building a nuclear weapon,' in line with previous assessments shared under the Biden administration. So, which is true? Former U.S. intelligence officials said that two people could be looking at the same intelligence and reach different conclusions as to Iran's intent. 'Unless there is a smoking gun, everything is fragmentary and has to be put together,' said a former senior U.S. intelligence official. The former senior official, like others quoted, was granted anonymity to speak freely about the intelligence analysis process. Assessments also tend to get very technical very fast when talking about Iran's nuclear program. Tehran already has two of the three ingredients needed to deliver a nuclear weapon: missiles that could deliver a devastating nuclear warhead to its target and ample quantities of highly enriched uranium. Gabbard testified in March that Iran has unprecedented levels of enriched uranium for a country that is not a nuclear power. The third component requires advanced scientific and technical know-how to get highly enriched uranium to explode and create a sustained nuclear reaction. What Iran is capable of and looking to do in this arena is where much of the debate plays out. It's also the part of the process that's fiendishly difficult for foreign intelligence agencies to keep tabs on, as it can be masked as scientific research. 'The nightmare scenario for the last decade is that Iran makes us think that they have stopped work on the weaponization piece, and have found a way to do that completely clandestinely,' said a second former senior intelligence official. Intelligence analysis is an art, not a science. While Gabbard's topline assessment from March still stands, there is plenty of debate within America's spy agencies about Iran's intentions, a person familiar with the matter told NatSec Daily. Some parts of the intelligence community, the White House and Capitol Hill believe it's a matter of semantics, the person said, noting that Iran has all of the key components for a nuclear weapons program, even if it has not been formally described as such. That debate played out in the open on Tuesday when President DONALD TRUMP dismissed Gabbard's remarks in March. 'I don't care what she said,' Trump said. 'I think they were very close to having a weapon.' 'There's a tug of war going on over in the White House,' Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Eric on Tuesday afternoon. Trump is hearing from both supporters and opponents of military intervention, Kaine argued, 'and that explains why his own comments tend to go back and forth.' For now, Washington is waiting for Trump to decide what to do with all the information presented to him, including whether to strike Iran. The president told reporters today, 'I may do it. I may not do it.' 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do,' he said. The Inbox HYPERSONIC SHOW: Iran launched hypersonic missiles at Israel today, the first time the high-power weapon has been used in the most recent volley of airstrikes between the two countries. Amid the escalation, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem announced it is organizing evacuations of American citizens, Eric reports. WONG'S NEXT MOVE: Former deputy national security adviser ALEX WONG is expected to join the President's Intelligence Advisory Board, two people familiar with the move told our own John Sakellariadis. The move indicates that Wong — who was ousted from his National Security Council role last month amid the fallout over top officials using the messaging app Signal to discuss military strikes in Yemen — still maintains close ties to the Trump administration. While low-profile, the PIAB has previously weighed in on hot-button intelligence policy topics, like the reauthorization of a key foreign spy power under JOE BIDEN. It is currently headed by former Republican Rep. DEVIN NUNES, along with other close Trump allies. A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on Wong's potential move. THE MARSHAL MEETS TRUMP: Pakistani Army chief ASIM MUNIR had lunch with Trump at the White House today — a rare occurrence that suggests the Trump administration is looking to mend fences with Islamabad. The president opting to meet with any foreign military leader is rare, let alone a foreign military leader who is not currently the head of government or head of state of a U.S. ally. Pakistan's ties with Washington have also waned in recent years as the United States has pursued greater cooperation with India as a way to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, the timing of the lunch is auspicious. Pakistan, which borders Iran, would be a critical player in any broader conflict with Iran as a potential entrepot for supplies and weapons for either side. And Pakistan's growing ties with China have led some Iran watchers to warn that Beijing could use Pakistan's territory as a way to funnel resources to Tehran in the event of a longer-term conflict with the United States and Israel. KELLOGG'S MINSK MISSION: While the administration is mostly focusing on the Middle East these days, Ukraine special envoy KEITH KELLOGG is meeting with Belarusian President ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO, our own Felicia Schwartz reports. The overture to the leader of Russia's satellite state is surprising. But it signals the administration's desire to keep lines open with Moscow. Reuters' Gram Slattery and Humeyra Pamuk were the first to report on the planned meeting. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes TAKES A SIDE: A Chinese government-linked influence effort online is working to spread the narrative that Iran is the dominant force in the conflict between Tehran and Israel, according to a new report from social network analysis company Graphika. As our own Maggie Miller writes in, Graphika researchers found that influence groups online tied to the Chinese government began almost immediately posting content on Western and Chinese social media platforms after the Israeli attack on Iran last week, promoting narratives on Iran winning the war. These include promoting an artificial intelligence-generated video on X that gives evidence of a successful destructive missile attack on Israel, and Chinese state-linked media posting reports that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU had fled to Greece during the strikes. Cyberattacks are also an increasing concern as the conflict continues, and U.S. critical infrastructure owners and operators are on high alert for a surge in Iranian-linked retaliatory attacks, as Maggie reported late Tuesday night. The Complex GRILLING HEGSETH: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH faced tough questions from both Republican and Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee today about U.S. military plans for conflict with Iran, the deployment of the U.S. military to Los Angeles amid protests and the Pentagon's budget request. Testifying alongside Joint Chiefs Chair DAN CAINE, the Pentagon chief declined to comment on conversations within the administration about striking Iran. Hegseth also defended the military's deployment to Los Angeles and blasted appeals courts' efforts to limit 'national security policy.' He also faced questions from Sen. Tim Kaine about the renaming of several military bases that previously honored Confederate generals. Republicans weren't keen to give the Pentagon chief too many lifelines during the hearing. Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) took Hegseth to task for the Pentagon's budget request, saying it 'leads me to question whether some officials in the administration plan to ignore congressional intent.' Related: Hegseth defers to general on Pentagon's plans for Iran by our own Jack Detsch and Paul McLeary FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AUKUS ENHANCEMENTS EFFORTS: Lawmakers are looking to help Australia and the U.K. avoid defense manufacturing restrictions as part of the AUKUS pact. Sens. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.) and Kaine introduced the AUKUS Improvement Act today, which would exempt the administration from needing to tell Congress about overseas manufacturing if it involves Australia and the U.K. The bill also lifts a requirement that the State Department grant Third Party Transfer approval for any foreign military sales to State Department-vetted entities that have been approved as AUKUS Authorized Users. The bill has a good chance of becoming law. AUKUS enjoys widespread bipartisan support and the administration reaffirmed its commitment to the pact to build submarines with the two U.S. allies after meeting with British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER at the G7 summit this week. Related: EU and Australia to negotiate security and defense partnership by our colleague Giorgio Leali On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — KILLING CAESAR (ACT): Two lawmakers are teaming up to sink a law that helped isolate the regime of former Syrian dictator BASHAR ASSAD to encourage the new government in Damascus to join its camp. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) introduced a bill today that would repeal the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposed economic sanctions on Syria. Their bill would remove broad-based sanctions, while preserving some of the provisions in U.S. law that would allow Washington to hold Syrian officials accountable for future human rights abuses. Shaheen told NatSec Daily that 'we can keep the new Syrian authorities accountable without decimating the economy' and praised Trump's special envoy to Syria, Ambassador TOM BARRACK, for using diplomacy to yield 'tremendous results.' 'We must do everything we can to support the Syrian people's aspirations for democracy, stability and security,' she said. The bill is likely to pass, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pushed the Trump administration in recent months to relax sanctions against Damascus and encouraged the White House's outreach towards Syria's new leader AHMED AL-SHARAA. Broadsides CARLSON CHEWS OUT CRUZ: Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), one of the leading GOP advocates for a military intervention against Iran's nuclear program, sat down with conservative commentator TUCKER CARLSON for an interview. And Cruz didn't pass Carlson's pop quiz about Iran. As our own Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reports, Carlson launched a softball at Cruz, asking how many people live in Iran. Cruz didn't know the answer and Carlson took him to task about it: 'You don't know the population of the country you seek to topple? How could you not know that?' When Cruz shot back that he doesn't 'sit around memorizing population tables,' Carlson got frustrated and proceeded to ask him more specific questions about Iran's demographics. 'You don't know anything about Iran,' Carlson said, as the two men began yelling over each other. 'You're a senator who is calling for the overthrow of the government and you don't know anything about the country!' The fiery exchange underscores the deep divisions within the Republican Party over the Trump administration's moves in Iran. Transitions — The president is tapping Adm. DARYL 'HONEY BADGER' CAUDLE to be the next chief naval officer. Caudle, a career submariner, is currently the commander of U.S. Fleet Forces. He was seen as a leading contender to replace Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, whom Trump removed from her post earlier this year. The president also nominated Marine Gen. CHRISTOPHER MAHONEY, the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, to be Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs. Both will face Senate confirmation before the Armed Services Committee. — Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK announced today she's running for Congress as a Democrat in Michigan's Seventh Congressional District. She'll be looking to unseat Rep. TOM BARRETT (R-Mich.) in what's expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive House races of the 2026 cycle. — Career U.S. intelligence official ADAM JONES is now the National Security Council's senior director for intelligence, three people familiar with the personnel move told John. Jones will fill an influential White House post previously held by BRIAN WALSH, who was ousted this April after Trump's Oval Office meeting with right-wing activist LAURA LOOMER. Jones joined the NSC in recent weeks, according to the three people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters. A White House spokesperson declined to comment. — TODD BENSMAN is now a senior adviser to border czar TOM HOMAN. He most recently was a senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies. What to Read — Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil, POLITICO: State Department unveils social media screening rules for all student visa applicants — Richard Nephew, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won't make the Iranian nuclear threat go away — Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Affairs: How Iran Lost Friday Today — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Iran-Israel War: Update on the Israeli Campaign, Iranian Nuclear Program and the Civilian Toll — Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Addressing China's Growing Influence in Colombia — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Getting Started: The New Lee Jae-myung Government — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: The Bigger Picture in the Iran-Israel Conflict: Russia, Missiles, Militias, and More Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who should not be named to the President's Intelligence Advisory Board.
Politico
4 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
The world waits for Trump and Tehran
With help from Maggie Miller, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric As President DONALD TRUMP plans his next move, a mystery is vexing Iran watchers: Could Iran actually carry out its big threatened retaliation against Israel before the U.S. potentially wades into the fight? So far, it appears Trump hasn't quite decided what to do about Iran. German Chancellor FRIEDRICH MERZ told the Axel Springer Global Reporters network, which includes POLITICO, that following discussions with Trump and other U.S. officials at the G7 summit in Alberta, he believes the U.S. is indeed weighing whether to get involved. But that decision 'also depends very much on how far the Iranian regime is prepared to go back to the negotiating table.' Trump, for his part, put out cryptic posts on social media today calling for 'unconditional surrender' from Iran and demanding that the Iranian government not target American installations in the region. Trump also claimed 'we' — implying the United States — have control of Iranian airspace at this moment. While the Trump administration mulls its options, Iran has repeatedly vowed to respond to devastating Israeli military strikes. Analysts and former officials do believe Tehran could still retaliate, but even hawks aren't convinced Iran is eager to expand the war — arguing Iran just doesn't have the capabilities or strategic impetus to make good on its threats. ELLIOTT ABRAMS, who served as Trump's special envoy to Iran in the first Trump administration, told NatSec Daily that Iran still could theoretically strike Gulf Arab states — including Saudi Arabia. The Iranian Air Force could also potentially carry out some kind of strike against Israel, he added. But Abrams argued that Iran's air capabilities aren't that expansive and striking the Saudis or another U.S. Gulf ally — let alone striking U.S. ships or bases — risks drawing the U.S. into the conflict. 'I don't believe in this great Iranian surprise,' Abrams said. Analysts also believe that Israel has mostly defanged Iran's ability to launch heavy missile barrages. Per the American Enterprise Institute's BRIAN CARTER, Israel has succeeded in taking out many of the launchers Iran needs to fire ballistic missiles toward its foe. Carter, who leads Middle East work at the think tank's Critical Threats Program, told NatSec Daily that even though Iran has cruise missiles and drones in its arsenal, those tools aren't super effective. 'Those cruise missiles move so slowly that they can be easily detected and intercepted. It's about a nine-hour flight of drones from Iran to Israel,' Carter explained. 'So it creates challenges. And the Israelis have shot down every Iranian drone that has targeted Israel in this round of escalation as well.' The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU argued that Iran has long relied on its proxies in Iraq and militant groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon as a deterrence strategy. Now that those groups have been diminished, he argues Iran's ability to wage war is more limited and the future of the nuclear program becomes all the more critical for Tehran's military efficacy. Diplomacy, he contends, is all Iran has left. 'The Islamic Republic's military capabilities made it an excellent crisis-bargainer, but a poor warfighter,' Taleblu said. 'Now that the regime has lost the pillars of its deterrence, and deterrence is at the heart of its security strategy, everything is in the nuclear basket.' The Inbox UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY met with most of his counterparts at the G7 summit today — except for Trump, who left the gathering early to deal with the ongoing crisis between Israel and Iran. The meetings took place as Ukrainians are dealing with the fallout from another wave of Russian airstrikes that killed at least 15 people. According to The Washington Post, a U.S. citizen was among the dead. Reuters, meanwhile, reports that the Trump administration has shelved an interagency group tasked with identifying ways to push Russia to speed up peace talks with Ukraine. The effort 'lost steam' as it became clear Trump didn't want to be more confrontational toward Moscow. THE MERZ METHOD: Merz also dismissed Trump's oft-stated complaint that Russia should not have been pushed out of what's now the Group of 7 countries. In his conversation with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which includes POLITICO, Merz said Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN has 'no business' at the table with other world powers. 'Excluding Putin from the G8 format following the annexation of Crimea, as it was called back then, remains correct,' Merz said. 'In this format, we are not sitting at the table with warlords and not with war criminals.' Merz also said Europe would welcome new U.S. sanctions on Russia, but acknowledged that Trump appears resistant to that idea for now. HUMANITARIAN NIGHTMARE: Israeli forces fired into crowds of Palestinians gathered to receive aid, killing dozens, according to multiple reports from the region. It was the latest such tragedy in the Gaza Strip since Israel recently lifted a blockade on aid and tried to set up a new humanitarian distribution system. The Israel Defense Forces said it is 'aware of reports regarding a number of injured individuals from IDF fire following the crowd's approach. The details of the incident are under review.' ELECTION PAIN IN SPAIN? Embattled Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is under pressure from fellow Socialist politicians to hold snap national elections due to corruption scandals — even if their party loses, reports our own Aitor Hernandez Morales. Many in the party fear Sánchez is a growing liability. The political turmoil could throttle the ambitions of Madrid, one of the NATO alliance's biggest defense spending laggards, to meet common defense spending targets. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes CY-BIRD ATTACK: A hacking group potentially linked to Israel is claiming responsibility for a cyberattack on an Iranian bank. The group, which calls itself Predatory Sparrow, wrote on social media that its target, Bank Sepah, is 'an institution that circumvented international sanctions and used the people of Iran's money to finance the regime's terrorist proxies, its ballistic missile program and its military nuclear program. This is what happens to institutions dedicated to maintaining the dictator's terrorist fantasies.' It was not immediately possible to independently verify the group's claim. There were reports that the bank on Tuesday suffered disruptions to its customer services, including problems with account access. Some of its branches closed after the attack, according to the reports. Predatory Sparrow is believed to have carried out past cyber attacks on Iran as well. The Complex DRONING ON AND ON: Russia's production of drones is reaching staggering levels, to the point where it appears aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. The Wall Street Journal, citing the Center for Information Resilience, reports that 'Russia, after cranking up production, has launched nearly 20,500 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.' The Kremlin has 'sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year.' The more drones are sent, the more likely some are to hit their targets. That's especially true in cities and towns close to the front lines, where air defense systems have less time to react to the incoming fire. On the Hill MASSIE'S WAR POWERS MISSIVE: Firebrand Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) will introduce their own War Powers resolution today to prevent any Trump administration military operations in Iran — and the duo is gaining some unexpected allies. Rep. DON BEYER (D-Va.) said he'd sign on to the resolution, along with Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.). And plenty of far-right members of the House, including Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) have voiced their opposition to a conflict with Iran, indicating that a broad coalition of House members could band together to pass the bill. The House is in recess until Monday, meaning that it likely wouldn't get a vote before the U.S. makes any possible moves against Iran. Massie's resolution accompanies a similar resolution from Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.). Kaine's resolution is privileged, but it's unclear when it'll come up for a vote, as the Senate is also working to pass a controversial tax bill this week. Broadsides COMMENT OSES-TU? Trump slammed French President EMMANUEL MACRON as a 'publicity seeking' type who 'always gets it wrong' after Macron said the U.S. president had left the G7 meeting early to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. 'He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that,' Trump wrote on social media. Macron had earlier told reporters of the possibility of a ceasefire. 'There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange,' he said, adding that the 'U.S. assured they will find a ceasefire and since they can pressure Israel, things may change.' The French Embassy in Washington declined to comment on the situation. Transitions — Concerned Veterans of America announced today that HERB FORD will become the organization's new deputy director. Ford, an Army veteran who served as a Judge Advocate General officer, has spent the last 10 years as the organization's general counsel and will also fill that role. — NADA HAMADEH, a member of the Middle East Institute's Board of Governors, was named Lebanon's ambassador to the United States. — MICHAEL COGAR is now deputy assistant secretary of defense for civilian personnel policy. He most recently was a strategic communications lead at Booz Allen Hamilton and worked for the Trump administration's Office of Personnel and Management. — JEFF GOETTMAN is now counselor to the U.S. Trade Representative. He is the former chief of staff to Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN. — MACKENZIE MARTINEZ is now public affairs adviser at the Commerce Department's International Trade Administration. She previously was communications director for Rep. CLAY HIGGINS (R-La.). What to Read — Sohrab Ahmari, Unherd: The regime change maniacs are back — Ashley J. Tellis, Foreign Affairs: India's Great-Power Delusions — Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy: Asia's Autocrats Welcome USAID's End Tomorrow Today — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Colombia's Critical Moment: A Conversation with Enrique Peñalosa — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: European security at the crossroads — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Looking Forward: The Future of United States-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relations — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Israel and Iran at War: How Does This End? — American Enterprise Institute, 1 p.m.: America, Denmark, and Greenland: A Situation Overview Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Rachel Myers, whose ballistic missile stockpiles are limited but still a threat. CORRECTION: Monday's newsletter misstated the number of times Trump and Zelenskyy met. Trump and Zelenskyy have met twice since Trump became president, and their second meeting was in Vatican City at the funeral of Pope Francis.
Politico
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Israel's boost to Iran nuclear talks
With help from Amy Mackinnon and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Israel's threats to strike Iran's nuclear facilities may actually be helping — not hurting — President DONALD TRUMP's efforts to secure a nuclear deal with Tehran, per analysts. Trump said Monday night he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and reiterated his commitment to talks with Iran. Their conversation, however, came as Israel has continued to threaten a potential military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Trump has ruled out Israeli military strikes, even in the face of pressure from prominent hawks, including conservative radio host MARK LEVIN. At first glance, pressure from Netanyahu and hawks backing a more militaristic solution to Iran's nuclear program would seemingly be forcing Trump to negotiate with both Israel and Iran at once. But MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, told NatSec Daily the continued threats from Israel to strike Iran allow Trump to credibly pressure Tehran and secure a better deal to restrain its nuclear ambitions. 'It's very useful for Trump to have a credible Israeli military threat so that he can be warning [Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI] 'unless you do a peaceful deal, Israelis are going to bomb,''' Dubowitz said. 'If anything, the argument from the isolationists to try to undermine that credible military threat is making a bad deal more likely. And if there is a bad deal, there's more likely to be an Israeli strike, and therefore more likely to be a war.' The assist may be needed. Iran this week has been trumpeting documents they heisted from Israel, purportedly revealing more details about Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons program. Ahead of talks later this week between U.S. and Iranian mediators, Iranian lawmakers are also accusing Israel and the United States of setting a 'strategic trap' for Iran by taking 'offensive positions' that would undermine 'Iranians' inalienable rights.' Dubowitz argued the efforts are 'counter-programming' ahead of an expected vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency later this week that would punish Iran for noncompliance with international standards. 'It's the worst-kept secret in the world that the Israelis have a nuclear weapons program,' Dubowitz said. MONA YACOUBIAN, who leads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, called the Iranian announcement about the stolen Israeli documents 'a tactical move,' allowing Iran to reframe negotiations around a perceived discrepancy between the treatment of Israel and Iran by the international community over their nuclear programs, possibly allowing Tehran to get a more lax deal. While Israel's posture toward Iran could advance a nuclear deal, Yacoubian cautioned that the threats still speak to a fundamental tension between Israel and the United States. From Israel's perspective, she argues, there is 'a greater sense of urgency, that there is this limited window to go after Iran's nuclear infrastructure and that that window of opportunity is closing.' Meanwhile, Trump has shown he's determined to avoid 'forever wars' in the Middle East and negotiate deals to avoid conflict, even against Israeli objections. 'We saw the administration followed suit by essentially negotiating, unilaterally, a ceasefire with the Houthis that did not actually address the threat the Houthis posed to Israel. And that threat continues,' Yacoubian said. She added that Trump's emphasis on dealmaking is a reflection of the influence of the 'non-interventionist wing of the Republican Party' pushing back against 'decades of how the U.S. has engaged in the Middle East, whether in a Republican or Democrat administration.' The Inbox RUSSIA'S AIR ATTACKS: Russia launched another round of airstrikes, this time against Kyiv and the southern city of Odesa, our colleague Elena Giordano reports from Europe. 'For yet another night, instead of a ceasefire, there were massive strikes with Shahed drones, cruise and ballistic missiles,' said Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. 'In Odesa, even a maternity hospital became a Russian target. Thirteen people were injured. Tragically, there are fatalities.' The strikes underscore that Putin is not yet satisfied in his desire for revenge over a stealthy drone attack earlier this month that took out a large number of Russia's bomber jets and exposed serious vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses. And the fresh attack is likely to further stall talks initiated by the United States to end Russia's three-year invasion. So far, Russia and Ukraine have only made progress in settling disputes over the repatriation of prisoners of war and the remains of each other's soldiers. WHAT'S KEEPING TULSI UP AT NIGHT: Trump's Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD issued a stark warning about risks of a 'nuclear holocaust' in a short video posted on her personal account on X this morning, accusing the 'political elite and warmongers' of 'carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.' In a three-minute clip superimposed with images of nuclear destruction, Gabbard reflected on a recent visit to Hiroshima, which was devastated by a U.S. atomic bomb at the end of World War II. 'A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes.' Gabbard did not specify who she was referencing as 'political elite and warmongers,' and her office did not respond to a request for comment on the video. MONITORING MUSK: The Department of Homeland Security and other government agencies surveilled foreign nationals who visited tech mogul ELON MUSK's homes in the United States in 2022 and 2023. As The Wall Street Journal's Dana Mattioli, Michelle Hackman, Josh Dawsey and Emily Glazer report, the probe focused on Eastern Europeans visiting Musk in the United States. The investigation didn't result in any charges and its current status is unclear, but it speaks to fears that predated the Trump administration that Musk was susceptible to potential foreign influence campaigns. Musk had regular contact with foreign officials, including Putin, as well as access to high-level U.S. government secrets as the chief executive of SpaceX and other government contractors. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel THE NEW ADMINISTRATION PUZDER AND HELBERG'S DAY: Two of Trump's most prominent foreign policy nominees faced members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today, but Democrats gave them both an unexpectedly soft questioning. JACOB HELBERG, nominated to be undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, faced some questions over his investments and his ability to fairly advance U.S. interests in a role so focused on economic and business diplomacy. Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) asked Helberg about his potential conflicts of interests — Helberg and his husband are heavily invested in the tech sector — and Helberg told senators he would outline an ethics plan to ensure he can execute his responsibilities. Former fast food executive ANDY PUZDER, nominated to be U.S. ambassador to the EU, got even less scrutiny from Democrats, in part due to the sheer number of nominees before the committee. That meant Democrats largely didn't confront Puzder about misconduct allegations against him. Only Ranking Member JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) addressed the issues that sank his bid to be Labor secretary in Trump's first term, calling the past statements and allegations against Puzder 'deeply concerning.' The other nominees before the committee were PAUL KAPUR, the nominee to be assistant secretary of State for South Asia; BENJAMIN BLACK, the nominee to lead the U.S. Finance Development Corporation; and HOWARD BRODIE, the nominee to be U.S. ambassador to Finland. They all got fairly light questions about conflict in Kashmir, the future of the FDC and the importance of countering Russia from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The Complex RUSSIA'S SPACE WARFARE RISK: Rep. JEFF CRANK (R-Colo.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, warned today that Russia poses a serious threat to U.S. access to low-earth orbit essential for everything from surveillance satellites to global positioning systems. 'We're heavily reliant on space and on low Earth orbit — Russia sees that and they want to exploit that vulnerability [because] they aren't as reliant on space,' Crank said at a Hudson Institute event Tuesday. Russia's options include attacks on U.S. satellites or intentionally creating debris fields in low orbit that could hobble U.S. systems. 'What would happen to the United States if we were blinded — if our GPS was gone, not just to our lives as civilians, but what would happen to our military capability?' said Crank. Defense from such attacks requires the U.S. to view space as a military zone. 'America sat back and said 'Well, we can't weaponize space.' But while we sat back, other countries were weaponizing space,' said Crank. Crank is the latest Republican to highlight the prospect of Russia militarizing beyond Earth. Last year, then-House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER of Ohio caused a stir on Capitol Hill over intelligence findings that suggested Russia could develop a space weapon. On the Hill KAMLAGER-DOVE'S SUBCONTINENT THOUGHTS: India and Pakistan sent dueling delegations to Washington this week to discuss the future relationship between both countries and prospects for conflict — though it's unclear if either side really won hearts and minds. The Indian delegation, led by parliamentarian SHASHI THAROOR, who heads the Indian parliament's foreign affairs committee, focused on India's right to respond to a deadly terror attack in Kashmir in April that killed 26 tourists and the need for further cooperation with the United States on security. Meanwhile, Pakistan's delegation, led by former Foreign Minister BILAWAL BHUTTO ZARDARI, called attention to India's aggressive response, which included nixing the Indus Water Treaty governing water rights for the critical river. Pakistan also emphasized areas for cooperation with the United States beyond counterterrorism, including cryptocurrency and critical minerals. Rep. SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that addresses South Asia, told your host that above all, 'India and Pakistan are neighbors who must coexist' and argued that conflict between the two is detrimental to U.S. interests. She added that the U.S. should leave both countries to resolve the Kashmir dispute, though it should still de-escalate tensions as needed to avoid broader war. Broadsides BEIJING AND PRETORIA'S BOND: Chinese Defense Minister DONG JUN — who was a no-show at last week's Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore — hasn't been arrested for suspected corruption after all. Instead, he was meeting with South African officials. Dong caught up with visiting South African Defense Minister RUDZANI MAPHWANYA in Beijing today and described the two countries as 'comrades and brothers' while lacing in some implicit criticism of the U.S. Per a Chinese Defense Ministry statement, they also discussed China's claims to Taiwan and improving military cooperation between the two countries. Dong's visit to South Africa underscores how Pretoria has deepened its ties with U.S. adversaries like China and Russia in recent years, which has strained its ties with Washington. Transitions — FBI veteran BRETT LEATHERMAN wrote on LinkedIn that he was selected as assistant director and lead official for the FBI's primary division to investigate cybercrimes. — RICHARD JOHNSON joined OpenAI as its national security risk mitigation lead. Johnson was previously deputy assistant secretary of Defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy. What to Read — Isabel Kerchner, The New York Times: Finding God, and Nietzsche, in the Hamas Tunnels of Gaza — Kyodo News: Japan sees 1st simultaneous operations by China carriers in the Pacific — USA Today: 'Dictator-style military parade?' Other world leaders who show off tanks and missiles Tomorrow Today — German Marshall Fund, 6 a.m.: Brussels Forum 2025: Partnership Disrupted: How Can Transatlantic Cooperation Endure?' — Arab Center, 9:30 a.m.: Second annual Palestine Conference with the theme 'A Historic Juncture: Israel's Destruction of Gaza and the Palestinian Future.' — House Oversight and Government Reform Military and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Clearing the Path: Reforming Procurement to Accelerate Defense Innovation — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Navy FY2026 Budget Request — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: A Review of the President's FY2026 Budget Request for the Department of Defense — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Risky Business: How Chinese Companies Use Hong Kong to Evade U.S. Sanctions. — House Homeland Security Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee, 10:30 a.m.: The Rise of Anti-Israel Extremist Groups and Their Threat to U.S. National Security — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Understanding the Information Environment to Protect Democracy Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Katherine Long, who never succeed in undermining our diplomatic efforts.
Politico
04-06-2025
- Business
- Politico
NATO's ‘Take Five' moment
With help from Joe Gould, Diya Contractor and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric NatSec Daily readers, Robbie here with a special note: After 150 newsletters, today is my last day helming the newsletter as I leave POLITICO for a new adventure. I've loved geeking out over all things natsec with our readers, so this is a bittersweet farewell for me! Fret not, however. Eric will be around as an interim anchor, working with the rest of the global security squad to bring you the freshest news of the day. Without further ado, let's get into it one last time. — Robbie NATO allies nervous about President DONALD TRUMP's commitment to Europe think they've found a magic formula to placate him. The magic number is five. Alliance chief MARK RUTTE has put forward a plan to get allies to spend 5 percent of GDP on their defense — drastically boosting the previous NATO benchmark of allies spending 2 percent on defense. Top Trump administration officials have pushed this spending level aggressively. But the plan also includes some workarounds (cynics might call them accounting tricks) to hit that 5 percent goal. That includes spending 3.5 percent on hard defense — think artillery, fighter jets, guns, etc. — and 1.5 percent on defense-adjacent funding, such as cybersecurity or military mobility infrastructure. One example: Ensure highway bridges are built to withstand tanks rolling across them in case an emergency deployment is needed. Defense spending has long been a sore spot in U.S.-NATO relations. But it's taken on a new urgency with Trump's reelection and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia has transformed into a full-fledged wartime economy. And Europe is racing to rearm as allies on the eastern flank warn that Moscow could encroach on NATO territory if it is successful in Ukraine. The 5 percent target will feature prominently in an upcoming NATO summit of alliance leaders at The Hague later this month. European defense officials privately say they hope the ambitious plan will placate Trump and show him that European allies are serious about taking charge of their defenses — at a time when they worry any public blow-ups with the U.S. president could signal discord within the alliance to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Current and former U.S. officials are cheering the move by the Trump administration to push for more defense spending. But they also question whether Europe can achieve those ambitions on an accelerated timeline that matters for European security, particularly as Russia shows no signs of letting up in its bombardment of Ukraine. (Twenty-three of NATO's 32 allies are on track to hit 2 percent defense spending by this summer.) 'I like the idea of allies committing to 3.5, but given that around a third of the allies don't even meet 2 percent yet, my question is how long will it take these countries to actually get there?' said JULIANNE SMITH, who served as U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Biden administration. Trump's ambassador to NATO, MATTHEW WHITAKER, addressed these concerns today, as our colleagues Laura Kayali and Jacopo Barigazzi report. 'Let me be clear on this, we cannot have another Wales pledge style where a lot of allies don't meet their commitments until year 10 or year 11,' Whitaker told reporters, referring to the 2014 decision at a NATO summit in Wales to set the 2 percent goal. 'Some allies may try and pull a fast one and put some items on the list that aren't quite defense adjacent, so we're just gonna have to do some very strict monitoring of this,' Smith said of the plan to add the 1.5 percent of spending to the tally. That includes ensuring allies don't retroactively 'count things they're already spending money on,' Smith said. So far, 14 NATO countries have publicly backed the 5 percent target. The United States is currently at 3.4 percent but prominent Republican lawmakers want to significantly boost U.S. defense spending further. The Inbox TRUMP'S HOTLINE BLING: Trump said he had a 'good conversation' with Putin over the phone today, as Cheyanne Daniels and our own Amy Mackinnon and Felicia Schwartz report. But Trump acknowledged that peace between Ukraine and Russia is not on the horizon. Trump claimed Putin vowed to respond to Ukraine's drone attacks over the weekend and that the call was 'not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace.' Iran also came up, and it seems like Putin wants to play peacemaker between Washington and Tehran. Trump wrote on Truth Social that Putin 'suggested that he will participate in the discussion with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion.' IRAN NUCLEAR WOES: Speaking of Iran, Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI today rejected a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal that would see Tehran gradually reduce its enrichment of uranium over time, per The Wall Street Journal's Benoit Faucon, Laurence Norman and Alex Ward. 'To the American side and others we say: Why are you interfering and trying to say whether Iran should have uranium enrichment or not? That's none of your business,' Khamenei said on X. The comments from Khamenei are a major blow to U.S. negotiators hoping Iran would cede enrichment capabilities for its civilian nuclear program. The U.S. has said it will not accept any deal that allows Iran to enrich its own uranium, meaning it may need to shift its expectations in negotiations. TROUBLE BREWS FOR BIBI: A far-right Israeli political party in Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU's coalition is threatening to launch a vote of no confidence that could prompt snap elections in the country. Reuters' Alexander Cornwell reports that the United Torah Judaism Party, an ultra-Orthodox party which holds seven seats in Netanyahu's coalition, is threatening to walk away from the government as Netanyahu mulls whether to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel from mandatory military conscription. The party's departure would put intense pressure on Netanyahu's coalition, which currently only has an eight-seat majority in the country's parliament. That could invite an opposition-led vote to dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections. The move comes at an especially delicate time in Israel, as Israelis across the political spectrum have soured on the country's conduct of the war in the Gaza Strip, as well as the government's failure to bring back the remaining hostages held by Hamas. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. We know it's Wednesday. But with Robbie leaving our team, we wanted to take a moment to raise a glass to him. Robbie said he'll be celebrating his run on your favorite newsletter by drinking happy hour Tecate tallboys (topped with a lime slice, of course) in honor of the warming weather. 'I need to drown my sorrows somehow, and I'll be doing it on a budget,' he said, tossing tissues over his desk toward Eric. Robbie has vowed to continue voraciously reading NatSec Daily after leaving the POLITICO family, and shake his fist in rage when Eric and the all-star natsec team scoop him in future reporting. In lieu of flowers, Eric asks that you send him tips about U.S.-Latin America policy. Cheers, Robbie! We'll miss you. IT'S WEDNESDAY — AND THE END OF THE ROBBIE ERA: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel The Complex FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — THE QUAD GOES INTERSTELLAR? A bipartisan duo of senators is pushing for the Quad alliance to look to the final frontier as a place for greater security cooperation. Sens. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) and KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) are teaming up to introduce the Quad Space Act, which would strengthen space cooperation between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. It also directs the secretary of Defense to cultivate partnerships with allies to promote space situational awareness and space industrial, among other priorities. The bill has decent odds of becoming law. The Trump administration has embraced the Quad alliance since taking office and has taken steps to boost its space policy capabilities. AND FOR ALL YOU SPACE NERDS: We have stellar news to share (no, we're not sorry for that pun.) Our very own Sam Skove is launching a newsletter covering all things space (for Pros!). The inaugural version is out this Friday and you won't want to miss Sam's sharp analysis of astrospace politics — down to the policy, power plays and people moves at the heart of America's new intergalactic ambitions. Don't forget to sign up, and read more about it here. On the Hill YERMAK MEETS WITH LAWMAKERS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY's top aide, ANDRIY YERMAK, met with a bipartisan swath of lawmakers on Capitol Hill this week, offering insight into Russian war crimes and battlefield dynamics. At a closed-door session Wednesday, the presentation included battlefield maps, drone footage of recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases and personal accounts of child abductions, according to lawmakers involved. The Ukrainians also laid out how little ground Russia had seized for the 'tremendous casualties' they had incurred, as well as the 'potential for additional gains' in the war. Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), who with Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM arranged the session, called it 'very powerful' and said there were roughly 25 senators in attendance from both parties. DRUG BUST: The House Intelligence Committee is standing up a new task force focused on stopping the growing threat of transnational criminal gangs, our own John Sakellariadis writes in. The bipartisan Cartel Task Force will work to bolster the intelligence community's ability to stop cartels that funnel narcotics and other illicit material into the U.S., committee leads Reps. RICK CRAWFORD (R-Ark.) and JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) said in a press release today. The move comes just a few months after the intelligence community put transnational organized crime first in its annual compendium of global threats to Americans. 'The United States cannot allow Mexico, our neighbor and largest trading partner, to devolve into a failed narco-state run by violent cartels,' Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Tex.), who is set to helm the task force, said in the press release. Alongside Crenshaw, the five-member panel includes Democratic Reps. JASON CROW of Colorado and CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania and Republican Reps. DARIN LaHOOD of Illinois and BRIAN FITZPATRICK of Pennsylvania. Broadsides HOLY ROLLING ON AI: POPE LEO XIV is looking to position the Vatican as a key voice on the future of AI, at a time when the technology seems poised to disrupt most aspects of society. Per our European colleague Hannah Roberts, the newly minted Bishop of Rome has continually expressed his worries that AI could seriously erode 'human dignity, justice and labor.' The Pope has already been the subject of a litany of deepfake videos, highlighting how the emerging technology could be used to spread falsehoods online. Vatican AI adviser and Franciscan friar PAOLO BENANTI told POLITICO that the Catholic Church's role as 'an expert in humanity' could galvanize leaders, particularly those of Catholic countries, 'to create an AI that cares for man and is aligned with social justice.' Transitions — SOPHIA KIM, a former spokesperson for the New York State Department of Financial Services and the U.S. Small Business Administration, has joined the Council on Foreign Relations as director of media relations and communications strategy. Kim also worked for SKDK. — JEFFREY GOETTMAN, former executive vice president and CEO of the Export-Import Bank, was tapped to serve as deputy U.S. trade representative. His portfolio will include Africa, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, labor, the environment and industrial competitiveness. — Former Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN launched a new advisory firm, Clarion Strategies, alongside Smith, the former U.S. NATO Ambassador and former Pentagon legislative affairs chief RHEANNE WIRKKALA. Also joining are former Veterans Affairs Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH as a principal, with ELY RATNER and LINDSEY FORD advising part-time. — CLARA GILLISPIE has joined the Council on Foreign Relations' David Rockefeller Studies Program as senior fellow for climate and energy. Gillispie most recently served as a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research. What to Read — Lara Jakes, The New York Times: Drone Attacks Are the New Front in War. NATO Is Trying to Catch Up. — Max Stier, The Washington Post: What Marco Rubio's multitude of jobs means for America — Ken Moritsugu and Kanis Leung, Associated Press: A quiet Tiananmen Square anniversary shows China's ability to suppress history Tomorrow Today — Asia Society Policy Institute, 8 a.m.: Political reset? Implications of the South Korea election for the alliance and the region. — Atlantic Council's Europe Center, 9 a.m.: Poland's strategic partnerships in a changing world - new roads and old ties' — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The Posture of the Department of the Army in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: Dominance by design: China shock 2.0 and the supply chain chokepoints eroding U.S. security — Middle East Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Pakistan-U.S. Relations Under the Trump Administration: Challenges and opportunities — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Air Force FY2026 Posture — Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: Backing Ukraine: What's Next for Russian Sanctions? — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 11:30 a.m.: What's Next for Taiwan: Navigating New Diplomatic, Economic, and Security Dynamics — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12:30 p.m.: The Next Era of Israel-Lebanon Relations?: Ceasefire Status and Political Prospects — New America, 2 p.m.: Book discussion on 'The Future of Deception in War: Lessons from Ukraine' — Center for American Progress, 2 p.m.: Discussion on 'America's Role in the World: The Value of Leadership and Alliance' with Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) — House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: After Assad: The Future of Syria — American Enterprise Institute, 2:30 p.m.: Emerging Technologies and Strategic Competition: A Conversation with Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) — Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: 'Global Strike Command's Role in Strategic Deterrence' Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who probably won't miss Robbie one bit.
Politico
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Israel feels fallout of Trump's ceasefire with Houthis
With help from Maggie Miller, Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric President DONALD TRUMP's ceasefire with the Houthi militant group in Yemen appears to be holding. But that hasn't stopped the Houthis from continually lobbing missiles at Israel, the United States' most important Middle East ally. The Houthis late Thursday night launched another ballistic missile at Israel — which Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted — marking the Houthis' sixth attempted attack in a week. It came days after Israel carried out its own airstrike against Houthi territory in Yemen. The attacks show how the Houthis are emerging as one of the most resilient Iran-backed militant groups in the region following a prolonged conflict that has seen Israel destroy a large part of Hamas and Hezbollah's military power. But the ongoing Houthi attacks also lay bare how Israel was left out of Trump's ceasefire deal with the Yemeni militants — a fact that could put the staunchly pro-Israel administration under new pressure to respond if the Houthi attacks escalate. 'Israel is not immune to America First foreign policy,' a former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East issues told NatSec Daily. 'And this was an America First negotiation.' Some pro-Israel groups have bridled at the Trump administration's decision to strike a deal with the Houthis that didn't include conditions on halting attacks on Israel. Leaving Israel out 'suggests there's daylight or divergence between the United States and Israel, which is always something Iran seeks to exploit,' said BLAISE MISZTAL of the Jewish Institute for National Security, a nonprofit advocacy group. But administration insiders, including the former official and one current official who we granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations, defended the Trump administration's decision. They argued that the Houthis would never halt attacks on Israel and that the administration simply took the least bad option it had available: Stop expending significant military resources and high-end munitions on a fight that had no end in sight. And, these people argued to us, the administration will use its resources better by focusing on tackling the root causes of the Houthi attacks. That includes a final ceasefire in Gaza and a deal with Iran, the Houthis' prime military backers, over its nuclear program. The Houthis have justified their attacks against Israel as a response to Israel's ongoing military offensive in Gaza. The militant group halted its missile attacks briefly during an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in January, then launched them again in March when Israel resumed its Gaza operations. 'The Houthis will continue these attacks to establish their jihadi street cred and axis of resistance street cred against Israel,' said the former Trump administration official. 'Everyone has tried to take on the Houthis militarily for a decade. And everyone has failed.' Spokespeople for the National Security Council and Israeli embassy in Washington didn't respond to NatSec Daily's request for comment. Still, the ongoing attacks may only serve to embolden the Houthis and bring them new resources, recruits and military prestige if left unchecked, other analysts warned. 'From a Houthi perspective, they're demonstrating not only 'You can go toe to toe with the United States and emerge,' but 'You can continue taking potshots at the most powerful military force in the Middle East and still be standing,'' said JON ALTERMAN of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. That, he argued, 'gives them tremendous credibility.' The Inbox HARVARD'S NEW VISA VETTING: The State Department unveiled new guidance for vetting visa applications of students, faculty members, staff and visiting speakers at Harvard University for online expressions of antisemitism, our own Nahal Toosi and Eric scooped. Per the cable issued Thursday and signed by Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO, consular officers should 'conduct a complete screening of the online presence of any nonimmigrant visa applicant seeking to travel to Harvard University for any purpose.' This goes beyond existing protocols, which primarily involved screening returning students who may have participated in pro-Gaza campus protests. And having no social media, or having accounts set to private, may cause applications to be rejected, as the cable tells consular officers to weigh those factors when evaluating an applicant's credibility. The policy is being described as a 'pilot' that could be expanded to visa applicants associated with other colleges and universities. NATO EXPANSION CONSENSUS? Russia is celebrating the Trump administration's public agreement that Ukraine shouldn't join NATO any time soon. U.S. special envoy to Ukraine KEITH KELLOGG said Thursday that Russia's worries about NATO's eastern expansion are 'a fair concern' and that 'Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table.' It's the first public statement that Ukraine's NATO membership is truly a nonstarter amid negotiations to end Russia's invasion. The Kremlin embraced those comments today, per our European colleague Yurii Stasiuk. 'We are glad that these explanations of the president find their understanding, including in Washington,' Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said. That consensus indicates that the U.S. and Russia could write into any deal to end the war in Ukraine that Kyiv won't be admitted formally into the alliance. MACRON'S WARNINGS: French President EMMANUEL MACRON offered a warning to China at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore today: The future of NATO in Asia rests on China's ability to keep North Korea out of the war in Ukraine. Per our European colleague Laura Kayali, Macron said that 'North Korea in Ukraine is a big question for all of us. If China doesn't want NATO to be involved in Southeast Asia, it should prevent [North Korea] from being engaged on European soil.' It's a remarkable about-face for the French leader, who helped block previous efforts by NATO to expand its presence in Asia by creating a liaison office in Japan. 'I had objected to NATO having a role in Asia because I don't believe in being enrolled in someone else's strategic rivalry,' Macron said, hinting that Paris could change its stance. The comments highlight Europe's deep vexation with the growing Russia-North Korea partnership in Ukraine, which has seen Pyongyang offer Russia troops and ammunition for its three-year invasion of Ukraine in exchange for cutting edge defense technology. China, which has traditionally served as the main power with influence over the mercurial government in Pyongyang, has chafed at the growing ties between its two allies, but has done little to rein in North Korea. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring KURT VOLKER, who served as Trump's envoy for Ukraine in his first administration and U.S. ambassador to NATO during the GEORGE W. BUSH administration. As a longtime Europe policy hand, it's perhaps no surprise that Volker's drink of choice involves European grapes: Tsolikouri, a dry white wine from the western region of Georgia in the South Caucasus. Volker said he first tried Georgian wine in 2005, when he was a member of then-President Bush's delegation visiting the country. 'It was wonderful. I've had Georgian wine from that time,' he said. (The rest of the trip after that, though, not so much: A Georgian man attempted to assassinate Bush later in the trip by throwing a grenade at him during a speech, but fortunately the grenade failed to detonate.) Another factor that may explain Volker's fondness for these dry white wines: Volker's wife, former Voice of America journalist IA MEURMISHVILI, has a vineyard in Georgia that produces wines including Tsolikouris. Maybe NatSec Daily should look at buying a vineyard to really upgrade the Drinks with NatSec Daily experience… But until then, cheers to you, Kurt! IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes BRING IT BACK: A group of Senate Democrats is urging Homeland Security Secretary KRISTI NOEM to reinstate a key federal advisory board tasked with investigating major cyber incidents, with the senators citing national security concerns, our own Maggie Miller writes in. Members of the Cyber Safety Review Board were dismissed during the first week of the Trump administration as part of an overhaul of DHS federal advisory boards, right as the CSRB was beginning to investigate the hack of U.S. telecommunications last year by Chinese government hacking group Salt Typhoon. Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.), along with Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) sent a letter to Noem today outlining their concerns with closing the CSRB, in particular the interruption of the Salt Typhoon investigation. 'The January dismissal of CSRB members, and continued uncertainty about the future role of the board, has undermined cyber defense preparations for public and private entities across the United States,' the senators wrote. A spokesperson for DHS did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily's request for comment. The Complex WAITING ON HEGSETH: Friday was a busy day for Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH, as he worked through his first Shangri-La Dialogue meeting in Singapore, our own Paul McLeary and Joe Gould write in. His meetings with allies presaged his highly anticipated Saturday keynote speech at the cornerstone annual event for nations to talk though security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Hegseth's remarks are expected to be a major statement on the Trump administration's still undefined security policy in the region. 'This is a really important speech, and the main reason for that is we don't know nearly as much as we would like to about where the Trump administration lies on Asia policy,' said MIRA RAPP-HOOPER, who was one of former President JOE BIDEN's top Asia advisers on East Asia and Oceania. 'There is uncertainty about how the United States is defining its own security role,' said Rapp-Hooper. 'So they don't really know how to gauge how strong the U.S. commitment is to them right now.' There's also concern that Hegseth will push Asian nations to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, which is emerging as the new spending goal for European NATO members. Pentagon policy chief ELBRIDGE COLBY posted on X recently that 5 percent 'is the new standard for our allies around the world, especially Asia.' Rapp-Hooper said any such ask 'will not land particularly well,' with allies in Asia, particularly South Korea, Japan and Australia — which are currently increasing spending and ramping up their military readiness. Other countries in the region simply can't afford to spend that much on defense, she said. The Trump administration's new isolationist-meaning doctrine, spelled out by Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia this month, and Vice President JD VANCE at the Naval Academy earlier this month, also might not entice allies to spend more just because Washington says so. 'When you threaten to pull back, it doesn't necessarily drive allies to spend more,' said ZACK COOPER, a former Pentagon official now with the American Enterprise Institute. 'It can empower the people in those capitals who are most skeptical of the U.S., who also happen to be skeptical of defense spending.' On the Hill MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS: Democratic lawmakers are demanding answers from a senior Trump administration Africa envoy over his efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict between Rwanda and the Congo and the role that U.S. investments in Congo's critical minerals is playing in any negotiations. Five Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to MASSAD BOULOS, the State Department's senior adviser on African affairs (who is also TIFFANY TRUMP's father-in-law). They said they had questions over expanded U.S. access to the Congo's critical mineral resources and 'how these resources will be managed transparently and equitably.' They also warned that the administration's cuts to humanitarian and health aid to the Congo will exacerbate the drivers of the ongoing conflict, including weak governance, corruption and lack of economic opportunity. The letter was signed by Reps. JOHNNY OLSZEWSKI (D-Md.), SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK (D-Fl.), JONATHAN JACKSON (D-Ill.) and PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.). The State Department declined to comment, saying it doesn't comment on correspondence with Congress. Broadsides INDIA ISN'T BACKING DOWN: India is reminding Pakistan that it has only paused military operations against it. Per Indian outlet Mint, Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI said at a rally today that 'Operation Sindoor is not over yet.' He continued: 'It showed the world power of indigenous weapons and 'Make in India.' We destroyed terrorist hideouts in Pakistan by going hundreds of miles inside. Indian weapons, Brahmos missiles, entered enemy territory and wreaked havoc.' Modi reiterated that India won't be cowed by threats from Pakistan about the use of nuclear weapons, echoing what's become a new strategic doctrine in Delhi as to relations with Islamabad. The comments come as India and Pakistan have reduced their troop buildup near their shared border. Pakistan has also signaled that the conflagration between both countries in late April and early May has increased the likelihood of further conflict and escalation. Transitions — Rubio announced today that former Ambassador to Jordan HENRY WOOSTER will become the chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Haiti as of June 12. DENNIS HANKINS, the outgoing U.S. ambassador, is retiring. Wooster is an Army veteran who previously worked at the U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince and will bring a 'whole-of-government approach to U.S. policy on Haiti,' per Rubio. — JORDAN BREWER is leaving the Cato Institute after serving as a manager of government affairs. He will join the State Department as special adviser in the bureau of cyberspace and digital policy. — Retired Col. ERIC LECKEL has joined the National Guard Association of the United States as its chief of staff. He previously served on the NGAUS board of directors and was president of the Wisconsin National Guard Association. — Cambridge Global Advisors has added PATRICK LECHLEITNER, ELAINE DUKE, KATIE TOBIN, RYAN SCUDDER, PAUL THOMAS, TIM DEVINE and MORGAN RYAN. What to Read — Kathleen Kingsbury, The New York Times: The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History — Judd Devermont, Post Strategy: On Engagement — Matthew Kassel, Jewish Insider: How Congress became impotent on foreign policy Monday Today — Council on Foreign Relations, 12:15 p.m.: The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals: Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control — Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: A book discussion on 'Decolonizing Ukraine: The Indigenous People of Crimea and Pathways to Freedom' Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who fail to pass any visa vetting requirements.
