Israel's boost to Iran nuclear talks
With help from Amy Mackinnon and Daniel Lippman
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Israel's threats to strike Iran's nuclear facilities may actually be helping — not hurting — President DONALD TRUMP's efforts to secure a nuclear deal with Tehran, per analysts.
Trump said Monday night he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and reiterated his commitment to talks with Iran. Their conversation, however, came as Israel has continued to threaten a potential military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Trump has ruled out Israeli military strikes, even in the face of pressure from prominent hawks, including conservative radio host MARK LEVIN.
At first glance, pressure from Netanyahu and hawks backing a more militaristic solution to Iran's nuclear program would seemingly be forcing Trump to negotiate with both Israel and Iran at once. But MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, told NatSec Daily the continued threats from Israel to strike Iran allow Trump to credibly pressure Tehran and secure a better deal to restrain its nuclear ambitions.
'It's very useful for Trump to have a credible Israeli military threat so that he can be warning [Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI] 'unless you do a peaceful deal, Israelis are going to bomb,''' Dubowitz said. 'If anything, the argument from the isolationists to try to undermine that credible military threat is making a bad deal more likely. And if there is a bad deal, there's more likely to be an Israeli strike, and therefore more likely to be a war.'
The assist may be needed. Iran this week has been trumpeting documents they heisted from Israel, purportedly revealing more details about Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons program. Ahead of talks later this week between U.S. and Iranian mediators, Iranian lawmakers are also accusing Israel and the United States of setting a 'strategic trap' for Iran by taking 'offensive positions' that would undermine 'Iranians' inalienable rights.'
Dubowitz argued the efforts are 'counter-programming' ahead of an expected vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency later this week that would punish Iran for noncompliance with international standards. 'It's the worst-kept secret in the world that the Israelis have a nuclear weapons program,' Dubowitz said.
MONA YACOUBIAN, who leads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, called the Iranian announcement about the stolen Israeli documents 'a tactical move,' allowing Iran to reframe negotiations around a perceived discrepancy between the treatment of Israel and Iran by the international community over their nuclear programs, possibly allowing Tehran to get a more lax deal.
While Israel's posture toward Iran could advance a nuclear deal, Yacoubian cautioned that the threats still speak to a fundamental tension between Israel and the United States. From Israel's perspective, she argues, there is 'a greater sense of urgency, that there is this limited window to go after Iran's nuclear infrastructure and that that window of opportunity is closing.' Meanwhile, Trump has shown he's determined to avoid 'forever wars' in the Middle East and negotiate deals to avoid conflict, even against Israeli objections.
'We saw the administration followed suit by essentially negotiating, unilaterally, a ceasefire with the Houthis that did not actually address the threat the Houthis posed to Israel. And that threat continues,' Yacoubian said. She added that Trump's emphasis on dealmaking is a reflection of the influence of the 'non-interventionist wing of the Republican Party' pushing back against 'decades of how the U.S. has engaged in the Middle East, whether in a Republican or Democrat administration.'
The Inbox
RUSSIA'S AIR ATTACKS: Russia launched another round of airstrikes, this time against Kyiv and the southern city of Odesa, our colleague Elena Giordano reports from Europe.
'For yet another night, instead of a ceasefire, there were massive strikes with Shahed drones, cruise and ballistic missiles,' said Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. 'In Odesa, even a maternity hospital became a Russian target. Thirteen people were injured. Tragically, there are fatalities.'
The strikes underscore that Putin is not yet satisfied in his desire for revenge over a stealthy drone attack earlier this month that took out a large number of Russia's bomber jets and exposed serious vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses. And the fresh attack is likely to further stall talks initiated by the United States to end Russia's three-year invasion. So far, Russia and Ukraine have only made progress in settling disputes over the repatriation of prisoners of war and the remains of each other's soldiers.
WHAT'S KEEPING TULSI UP AT NIGHT: Trump's Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD issued a stark warning about risks of a 'nuclear holocaust' in a short video posted on her personal account on X this morning, accusing the 'political elite and warmongers' of 'carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.'
In a three-minute clip superimposed with images of nuclear destruction, Gabbard reflected on a recent visit to Hiroshima, which was devastated by a U.S. atomic bomb at the end of World War II. 'A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes.'
Gabbard did not specify who she was referencing as 'political elite and warmongers,' and her office did not respond to a request for comment on the video.
MONITORING MUSK: The Department of Homeland Security and other government agencies surveilled foreign nationals who visited tech mogul ELON MUSK's homes in the United States in 2022 and 2023.
As The Wall Street Journal's Dana Mattioli, Michelle Hackman, Josh Dawsey and Emily Glazer report, the probe focused on Eastern Europeans visiting Musk in the United States. The investigation didn't result in any charges and its current status is unclear, but it speaks to fears that predated the Trump administration that Musk was susceptible to potential foreign influence campaigns. Musk had regular contact with foreign officials, including Putin, as well as access to high-level U.S. government secrets as the chief executive of SpaceX and other government contractors.
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While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi.bsky.social, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
THE NEW ADMINISTRATION
PUZDER AND HELBERG'S DAY: Two of Trump's most prominent foreign policy nominees faced members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today, but Democrats gave them both an unexpectedly soft questioning.
JACOB HELBERG, nominated to be undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, faced some questions over his investments and his ability to fairly advance U.S. interests in a role so focused on economic and business diplomacy. Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) asked Helberg about his potential conflicts of interests — Helberg and his husband are heavily invested in the tech sector — and Helberg told senators he would outline an ethics plan to ensure he can execute his responsibilities.
Former fast food executive ANDY PUZDER, nominated to be U.S. ambassador to the EU, got even less scrutiny from Democrats, in part due to the sheer number of nominees before the committee. That meant Democrats largely didn't confront Puzder about misconduct allegations against him. Only Ranking Member JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) addressed the issues that sank his bid to be Labor secretary in Trump's first term, calling the past statements and allegations against Puzder 'deeply concerning.'
The other nominees before the committee were PAUL KAPUR, the nominee to be assistant secretary of State for South Asia; BENJAMIN BLACK, the nominee to lead the U.S. Finance Development Corporation; and HOWARD BRODIE, the nominee to be U.S. ambassador to Finland. They all got fairly light questions about conflict in Kashmir, the future of the FDC and the importance of countering Russia from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
The Complex
RUSSIA'S SPACE WARFARE RISK: Rep. JEFF CRANK (R-Colo.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, warned today that Russia poses a serious threat to U.S. access to low-earth orbit essential for everything from surveillance satellites to global positioning systems.
'We're heavily reliant on space and on low Earth orbit — Russia sees that and they want to exploit that vulnerability [because] they aren't as reliant on space,' Crank said at a Hudson Institute event Tuesday. Russia's options include attacks on U.S. satellites or intentionally creating debris fields in low orbit that could hobble U.S. systems. 'What would happen to the United States if we were blinded — if our GPS was gone, not just to our lives as civilians, but what would happen to our military capability?' said Crank.
Defense from such attacks requires the U.S. to view space as a military zone. 'America sat back and said 'Well, we can't weaponize space.' But while we sat back, other countries were weaponizing space,' said Crank.
Crank is the latest Republican to highlight the prospect of Russia militarizing beyond Earth. Last year, then-House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER of Ohio caused a stir on Capitol Hill over intelligence findings that suggested Russia could develop a space weapon.
On the Hill
KAMLAGER-DOVE'S SUBCONTINENT THOUGHTS: India and Pakistan sent dueling delegations to Washington this week to discuss the future relationship between both countries and prospects for conflict — though it's unclear if either side really won hearts and minds.
The Indian delegation, led by parliamentarian SHASHI THAROOR, who heads the Indian parliament's foreign affairs committee, focused on India's right to respond to a deadly terror attack in Kashmir in April that killed 26 tourists and the need for further cooperation with the United States on security. Meanwhile, Pakistan's delegation, led by former Foreign Minister BILAWAL BHUTTO ZARDARI, called attention to India's aggressive response, which included nixing the Indus Water Treaty governing water rights for the critical river. Pakistan also emphasized areas for cooperation with the United States beyond counterterrorism, including cryptocurrency and critical minerals.
Rep. SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that addresses South Asia, told your host that above all, 'India and Pakistan are neighbors who must coexist' and argued that conflict between the two is detrimental to U.S. interests. She added that the U.S. should leave both countries to resolve the Kashmir dispute, though it should still de-escalate tensions as needed to avoid broader war.
Broadsides
BEIJING AND PRETORIA'S BOND: Chinese Defense Minister DONG JUN — who was a no-show at last week's Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore — hasn't been arrested for suspected corruption after all. Instead, he was meeting with South African officials.
Dong caught up with visiting South African Defense Minister RUDZANI MAPHWANYA in Beijing today and described the two countries as 'comrades and brothers' while lacing in some implicit criticism of the U.S. Per a Chinese Defense Ministry statement, they also discussed China's claims to Taiwan and improving military cooperation between the two countries.
Dong's visit to South Africa underscores how Pretoria has deepened its ties with U.S. adversaries like China and Russia in recent years, which has strained its ties with Washington.
Transitions
— FBI veteran BRETT LEATHERMAN wrote on LinkedIn that he was selected as assistant director and lead official for the FBI's primary division to investigate cybercrimes.
— RICHARD JOHNSON joined OpenAI as its national security risk mitigation lead. Johnson was previously deputy assistant secretary of Defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy.
What to Read
— Isabel Kerchner, The New York Times: Finding God, and Nietzsche, in the Hamas Tunnels of Gaza
— Kyodo News: Japan sees 1st simultaneous operations by China carriers in the Pacific
— USA Today: 'Dictator-style military parade?' Other world leaders who show off tanks and missiles
Tomorrow Today
— German Marshall Fund, 6 a.m.: Brussels Forum 2025: Partnership Disrupted: How Can Transatlantic Cooperation Endure?'
— Arab Center, 9:30 a.m.: Second annual Palestine Conference with the theme 'A Historic Juncture: Israel's Destruction of Gaza and the Palestinian Future.'
— House Oversight and Government Reform Military and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Clearing the Path: Reforming Procurement to Accelerate Defense Innovation
— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Navy FY2026 Budget Request
— Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: A Review of the President's FY2026 Budget Request for the Department of Defense
— Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Risky Business: How Chinese Companies Use Hong Kong to Evade U.S. Sanctions.
— House Homeland Security Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee, 10:30 a.m.: The Rise of Anti-Israel Extremist Groups and Their Threat to U.S. National Security
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Understanding the Information Environment to Protect Democracy
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Katherine Long, who never succeed in undermining our diplomatic efforts.
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