The world waits for Trump and Tehran
With help from Maggie Miller, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman
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As President DONALD TRUMP plans his next move, a mystery is vexing Iran watchers: Could Iran actually carry out its big threatened retaliation against Israel before the U.S. potentially wades into the fight?
So far, it appears Trump hasn't quite decided what to do about Iran. German Chancellor FRIEDRICH MERZ told the Axel Springer Global Reporters network, which includes POLITICO, that following discussions with Trump and other U.S. officials at the G7 summit in Alberta, he believes the U.S. is indeed weighing whether to get involved. But that decision 'also depends very much on how far the Iranian regime is prepared to go back to the negotiating table.'
Trump, for his part, put out cryptic posts on social media today calling for 'unconditional surrender' from Iran and demanding that the Iranian government not target American installations in the region. Trump also claimed 'we' — implying the United States — have control of Iranian airspace at this moment.
While the Trump administration mulls its options, Iran has repeatedly vowed to respond to devastating Israeli military strikes. Analysts and former officials do believe Tehran could still retaliate, but even hawks aren't convinced Iran is eager to expand the war — arguing Iran just doesn't have the capabilities or strategic impetus to make good on its threats.
ELLIOTT ABRAMS, who served as Trump's special envoy to Iran in the first Trump administration, told NatSec Daily that Iran still could theoretically strike Gulf Arab states — including Saudi Arabia. The Iranian Air Force could also potentially carry out some kind of strike against Israel, he added.
But Abrams argued that Iran's air capabilities aren't that expansive and striking the Saudis or another U.S. Gulf ally — let alone striking U.S. ships or bases — risks drawing the U.S. into the conflict. 'I don't believe in this great Iranian surprise,' Abrams said.
Analysts also believe that Israel has mostly defanged Iran's ability to launch heavy missile barrages. Per the American Enterprise Institute's BRIAN CARTER, Israel has succeeded in taking out many of the launchers Iran needs to fire ballistic missiles toward its foe.
Carter, who leads Middle East work at the think tank's Critical Threats Program, told NatSec Daily that even though Iran has cruise missiles and drones in its arsenal, those tools aren't super effective.
'Those cruise missiles move so slowly that they can be easily detected and intercepted. It's about a nine-hour flight of drones from Iran to Israel,' Carter explained. 'So it creates challenges. And the Israelis have shot down every Iranian drone that has targeted Israel in this round of escalation as well.'
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU argued that Iran has long relied on its proxies in Iraq and militant groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon as a deterrence strategy. Now that those groups have been diminished, he argues Iran's ability to wage war is more limited and the future of the nuclear program becomes all the more critical for Tehran's military efficacy. Diplomacy, he contends, is all Iran has left.
'The Islamic Republic's military capabilities made it an excellent crisis-bargainer, but a poor warfighter,' Taleblu said. 'Now that the regime has lost the pillars of its deterrence, and deterrence is at the heart of its security strategy, everything is in the nuclear basket.'
The Inbox
UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY met with most of his counterparts at the G7 summit today — except for Trump, who left the gathering early to deal with the ongoing crisis between Israel and Iran.
The meetings took place as Ukrainians are dealing with the fallout from another wave of Russian airstrikes that killed at least 15 people. According to The Washington Post, a U.S. citizen was among the dead.
Reuters, meanwhile, reports that the Trump administration has shelved an interagency group tasked with identifying ways to push Russia to speed up peace talks with Ukraine. The effort 'lost steam' as it became clear Trump didn't want to be more confrontational toward Moscow.
THE MERZ METHOD: Merz also dismissed Trump's oft-stated complaint that Russia should not have been pushed out of what's now the Group of 7 countries. In his conversation with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which includes POLITICO, Merz said Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN has 'no business' at the table with other world powers.
'Excluding Putin from the G8 format following the annexation of Crimea, as it was called back then, remains correct,' Merz said. 'In this format, we are not sitting at the table with warlords and not with war criminals.'
Merz also said Europe would welcome new U.S. sanctions on Russia, but acknowledged that Trump appears resistant to that idea for now.
HUMANITARIAN NIGHTMARE: Israeli forces fired into crowds of Palestinians gathered to receive aid, killing dozens, according to multiple reports from the region.
It was the latest such tragedy in the Gaza Strip since Israel recently lifted a blockade on aid and tried to set up a new humanitarian distribution system. The Israel Defense Forces said it is 'aware of reports regarding a number of injured individuals from IDF fire following the crowd's approach. The details of the incident are under review.'
ELECTION PAIN IN SPAIN? Embattled Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is under pressure from fellow Socialist politicians to hold snap national elections due to corruption scandals — even if their party loses, reports our own Aitor Hernandez Morales. Many in the party fear Sánchez is a growing liability.
The political turmoil could throttle the ambitions of Madrid, one of the NATO alliance's biggest defense spending laggards, to meet common defense spending targets.
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Keystrokes
CY-BIRD ATTACK: A hacking group potentially linked to Israel is claiming responsibility for a cyberattack on an Iranian bank.
The group, which calls itself Predatory Sparrow, wrote on social media that its target, Bank Sepah, is 'an institution that circumvented international sanctions and used the people of Iran's money to finance the regime's terrorist proxies, its ballistic missile program and its military nuclear program. This is what happens to institutions dedicated to maintaining the dictator's terrorist fantasies.'
It was not immediately possible to independently verify the group's claim. There were reports that the bank on Tuesday suffered disruptions to its customer services, including problems with account access. Some of its branches closed after the attack, according to the reports. Predatory Sparrow is believed to have carried out past cyber attacks on Iran as well.
The Complex
DRONING ON AND ON: Russia's production of drones is reaching staggering levels, to the point where it appears aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses.
The Wall Street Journal, citing the Center for Information Resilience, reports that 'Russia, after cranking up production, has launched nearly 20,500 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.' The Kremlin has 'sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year.'
The more drones are sent, the more likely some are to hit their targets. That's especially true in cities and towns close to the front lines, where air defense systems have less time to react to the incoming fire.
On the Hill
MASSIE'S WAR POWERS MISSIVE: Firebrand Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) will introduce their own War Powers resolution today to prevent any Trump administration military operations in Iran — and the duo is gaining some unexpected allies.
Rep. DON BEYER (D-Va.) said he'd sign on to the resolution, along with Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.). And plenty of far-right members of the House, including Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) have voiced their opposition to a conflict with Iran, indicating that a broad coalition of House members could band together to pass the bill. The House is in recess until Monday, meaning that it likely wouldn't get a vote before the U.S. makes any possible moves against Iran.
Massie's resolution accompanies a similar resolution from Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.). Kaine's resolution is privileged, but it's unclear when it'll come up for a vote, as the Senate is also working to pass a controversial tax bill this week.
Broadsides
COMMENT OSES-TU? Trump slammed French President EMMANUEL MACRON as a 'publicity seeking' type who 'always gets it wrong' after Macron said the U.S. president had left the G7 meeting early to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
'He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that,' Trump wrote on social media.
Macron had earlier told reporters of the possibility of a ceasefire. 'There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange,' he said, adding that the 'U.S. assured they will find a ceasefire and since they can pressure Israel, things may change.'
The French Embassy in Washington declined to comment on the situation.
Transitions
— Concerned Veterans of America announced today that HERB FORD will become the organization's new deputy director. Ford, an Army veteran who served as a Judge Advocate General officer, has spent the last 10 years as the organization's general counsel and will also fill that role.
— NADA HAMADEH, a member of the Middle East Institute's Board of Governors, was named Lebanon's ambassador to the United States.
— MICHAEL COGAR is now deputy assistant secretary of defense for civilian personnel policy. He most recently was a strategic communications lead at Booz Allen Hamilton and worked for the Trump administration's Office of Personnel and Management.
— JEFF GOETTMAN is now counselor to the U.S. Trade Representative. He is the former chief of staff to Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN.
— MACKENZIE MARTINEZ is now public affairs adviser at the Commerce Department's International Trade Administration. She previously was communications director for Rep. CLAY HIGGINS (R-La.).
What to Read
— Sohrab Ahmari, Unherd: The regime change maniacs are back
— Ashley J. Tellis, Foreign Affairs: India's Great-Power Delusions
— Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy: Asia's Autocrats Welcome USAID's End
Tomorrow Today
— Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Colombia's Critical Moment: A Conversation with Enrique Peñalosa
— Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: European security at the crossroads
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Looking Forward: The Future of United States-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relations
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Israel and Iran at War: How Does This End?
— American Enterprise Institute, 1 p.m.: America, Denmark, and Greenland: A Situation Overview
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Rachel Myers, whose ballistic missile stockpiles are limited but still a threat.
CORRECTION: Monday's newsletter misstated the number of times Trump and Zelenskyy met. Trump and Zelenskyy have met twice since Trump became president, and their second meeting was in Vatican City at the funeral of Pope Francis.
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