Israel feels fallout of Trump's ceasefire with Houthis

With help from Maggie Miller, Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman
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President DONALD TRUMP's ceasefire with the Houthi militant group in Yemen appears to be holding. But that hasn't stopped the Houthis from continually lobbing missiles at Israel, the United States' most important Middle East ally.
The Houthis late Thursday night launched another ballistic missile at Israel — which Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted — marking the Houthis' sixth attempted attack in a week. It came days after Israel carried out its own airstrike against Houthi territory in Yemen.
The attacks show how the Houthis are emerging as one of the most resilient Iran-backed militant groups in the region following a prolonged conflict that has seen Israel destroy a large part of Hamas and Hezbollah's military power. But the ongoing Houthi attacks also lay bare how Israel was left out of Trump's ceasefire deal with the Yemeni militants — a fact that could put the staunchly pro-Israel administration under new pressure to respond if the Houthi attacks escalate.
'Israel is not immune to America First foreign policy,' a former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East issues told NatSec Daily. 'And this was an America First negotiation.'
Some pro-Israel groups have bridled at the Trump administration's decision to strike a deal with the Houthis that didn't include conditions on halting attacks on Israel. Leaving Israel out 'suggests there's daylight or divergence between the United States and Israel, which is always something Iran seeks to exploit,' said BLAISE MISZTAL of the Jewish Institute for National Security, a nonprofit advocacy group.
But administration insiders, including the former official and one current official who we granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations, defended the Trump administration's decision. They argued that the Houthis would never halt attacks on Israel and that the administration simply took the least bad option it had available: Stop expending significant military resources and high-end munitions on a fight that had no end in sight.
And, these people argued to us, the administration will use its resources better by focusing on tackling the root causes of the Houthi attacks. That includes a final ceasefire in Gaza and a deal with Iran, the Houthis' prime military backers, over its nuclear program. The Houthis have justified their attacks against Israel as a response to Israel's ongoing military offensive in Gaza. The militant group halted its missile attacks briefly during an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in January, then launched them again in March when Israel resumed its Gaza operations.
'The Houthis will continue these attacks to establish their jihadi street cred and axis of resistance street cred against Israel,' said the former Trump administration official. 'Everyone has tried to take on the Houthis militarily for a decade. And everyone has failed.'
Spokespeople for the National Security Council and Israeli embassy in Washington didn't respond to NatSec Daily's request for comment.
Still, the ongoing attacks may only serve to embolden the Houthis and bring them new resources, recruits and military prestige if left unchecked, other analysts warned.
'From a Houthi perspective, they're demonstrating not only 'You can go toe to toe with the United States and emerge,' but 'You can continue taking potshots at the most powerful military force in the Middle East and still be standing,'' said JON ALTERMAN of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. That, he argued, 'gives them tremendous credibility.'
The Inbox
HARVARD'S NEW VISA VETTING: The State Department unveiled new guidance for vetting visa applications of students, faculty members, staff and visiting speakers at Harvard University for online expressions of antisemitism, our own Nahal Toosi and Eric scooped.
Per the cable issued Thursday and signed by Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO, consular officers should 'conduct a complete screening of the online presence of any nonimmigrant visa applicant seeking to travel to Harvard University for any purpose.' This goes beyond existing protocols, which primarily involved screening returning students who may have participated in pro-Gaza campus protests. And having no social media, or having accounts set to private, may cause applications to be rejected, as the cable tells consular officers to weigh those factors when evaluating an applicant's credibility.
The policy is being described as a 'pilot' that could be expanded to visa applicants associated with other colleges and universities.
NATO EXPANSION CONSENSUS? Russia is celebrating the Trump administration's public agreement that Ukraine shouldn't join NATO any time soon.
U.S. special envoy to Ukraine KEITH KELLOGG said Thursday that Russia's worries about NATO's eastern expansion are 'a fair concern' and that 'Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table.' It's the first public statement that Ukraine's NATO membership is truly a nonstarter amid negotiations to end Russia's invasion. The Kremlin embraced those comments today, per our European colleague Yurii Stasiuk.
'We are glad that these explanations of the president find their understanding, including in Washington,' Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said.
That consensus indicates that the U.S. and Russia could write into any deal to end the war in Ukraine that Kyiv won't be admitted formally into the alliance.
MACRON'S WARNINGS: French President EMMANUEL MACRON offered a warning to China at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore today: The future of NATO in Asia rests on China's ability to keep North Korea out of the war in Ukraine.
Per our European colleague Laura Kayali, Macron said that 'North Korea in Ukraine is a big question for all of us. If China doesn't want NATO to be involved in Southeast Asia, it should prevent [North Korea] from being engaged on European soil.' It's a remarkable about-face for the French leader, who helped block previous efforts by NATO to expand its presence in Asia by creating a liaison office in Japan.
'I had objected to NATO having a role in Asia because I don't believe in being enrolled in someone else's strategic rivalry,' Macron said, hinting that Paris could change its stance.
The comments highlight Europe's deep vexation with the growing Russia-North Korea partnership in Ukraine, which has seen Pyongyang offer Russia troops and ammunition for its three-year invasion of Ukraine in exchange for cutting edge defense technology. China, which has traditionally served as the main power with influence over the mercurial government in Pyongyang, has chafed at the growing ties between its two allies, but has done little to rein in North Korea.
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we're featuring KURT VOLKER, who served as Trump's envoy for Ukraine in his first administration and U.S. ambassador to NATO during the GEORGE W. BUSH administration.
As a longtime Europe policy hand, it's perhaps no surprise that Volker's drink of choice involves European grapes: Tsolikouri, a dry white wine from the western region of Georgia in the South Caucasus.
Volker said he first tried Georgian wine in 2005, when he was a member of then-President Bush's delegation visiting the country. 'It was wonderful. I've had Georgian wine from that time,' he said. (The rest of the trip after that, though, not so much: A Georgian man attempted to assassinate Bush later in the trip by throwing a grenade at him during a speech, but fortunately the grenade failed to detonate.)
Another factor that may explain Volker's fondness for these dry white wines: Volker's wife, former Voice of America journalist IA MEURMISHVILI, has a vineyard in Georgia that produces wines including Tsolikouris.
Maybe NatSec Daily should look at buying a vineyard to really upgrade the Drinks with NatSec Daily experience…
But until then, cheers to you, Kurt!
IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
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Keystrokes
BRING IT BACK: A group of Senate Democrats is urging Homeland Security Secretary KRISTI NOEM to reinstate a key federal advisory board tasked with investigating major cyber incidents, with the senators citing national security concerns, our own Maggie Miller writes in.
Members of the Cyber Safety Review Board were dismissed during the first week of the Trump administration as part of an overhaul of DHS federal advisory boards, right as the CSRB was beginning to investigate the hack of U.S. telecommunications last year by Chinese government hacking group Salt Typhoon.
Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.), along with Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) sent a letter to Noem today outlining their concerns with closing the CSRB, in particular the interruption of the Salt Typhoon investigation.
'The January dismissal of CSRB members, and continued uncertainty about the future role of the board, has undermined cyber defense preparations for public and private entities across the United States,' the senators wrote. A spokesperson for DHS did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily's request for comment.
The Complex
WAITING ON HEGSETH: Friday was a busy day for Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH, as he worked through his first Shangri-La Dialogue meeting in Singapore, our own Paul McLeary and Joe Gould write in.
His meetings with allies presaged his highly anticipated Saturday keynote speech at the cornerstone annual event for nations to talk though security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Hegseth's remarks are expected to be a major statement on the Trump administration's still undefined security policy in the region.
'This is a really important speech, and the main reason for that is we don't know nearly as much as we would like to about where the Trump administration lies on Asia policy,' said MIRA RAPP-HOOPER, who was one of former President JOE BIDEN's top Asia advisers on East Asia and Oceania.
'There is uncertainty about how the United States is defining its own security role,' said Rapp-Hooper. 'So they don't really know how to gauge how strong the U.S. commitment is to them right now.'
There's also concern that Hegseth will push Asian nations to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, which is emerging as the new spending goal for European NATO members. Pentagon policy chief ELBRIDGE COLBY posted on X recently that 5 percent 'is the new standard for our allies around the world, especially Asia.'
Rapp-Hooper said any such ask 'will not land particularly well,' with allies in Asia, particularly South Korea, Japan and Australia — which are currently increasing spending and ramping up their military readiness. Other countries in the region simply can't afford to spend that much on defense, she said.
The Trump administration's new isolationist-meaning doctrine, spelled out by Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia this month, and Vice President JD VANCE at the Naval Academy earlier this month, also might not entice allies to spend more just because Washington says so.
'When you threaten to pull back, it doesn't necessarily drive allies to spend more,' said ZACK COOPER, a former Pentagon official now with the American Enterprise Institute. 'It can empower the people in those capitals who are most skeptical of the U.S., who also happen to be skeptical of defense spending.'
On the Hill
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS: Democratic lawmakers are demanding answers from a senior Trump administration Africa envoy over his efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict between Rwanda and the Congo and the role that U.S. investments in Congo's critical minerals is playing in any negotiations.
Five Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to MASSAD BOULOS, the State Department's senior adviser on African affairs (who is also TIFFANY TRUMP's father-in-law). They said they had questions over expanded U.S. access to the Congo's critical mineral resources and 'how these resources will be managed transparently and equitably.'
They also warned that the administration's cuts to humanitarian and health aid to the Congo will exacerbate the drivers of the ongoing conflict, including weak governance, corruption and lack of economic opportunity. The letter was signed by Reps. JOHNNY OLSZEWSKI (D-Md.), SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK (D-Fl.), JONATHAN JACKSON (D-Ill.) and PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.).
The State Department declined to comment, saying it doesn't comment on correspondence with Congress.
Broadsides
INDIA ISN'T BACKING DOWN: India is reminding Pakistan that it has only paused military operations against it.
Per Indian outlet Mint, Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI said at a rally today that 'Operation Sindoor is not over yet.' He continued: 'It showed the world power of indigenous weapons and 'Make in India.' We destroyed terrorist hideouts in Pakistan by going hundreds of miles inside. Indian weapons, Brahmos missiles, entered enemy territory and wreaked havoc.'
Modi reiterated that India won't be cowed by threats from Pakistan about the use of nuclear weapons, echoing what's become a new strategic doctrine in Delhi as to relations with Islamabad.
The comments come as India and Pakistan have reduced their troop buildup near their shared border. Pakistan has also signaled that the conflagration between both countries in late April and early May has increased the likelihood of further conflict and escalation.
Transitions
— Rubio announced today that former Ambassador to Jordan HENRY WOOSTER will become the chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Haiti as of June 12. DENNIS HANKINS, the outgoing U.S. ambassador, is retiring. Wooster is an Army veteran who previously worked at the U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince and will bring a 'whole-of-government approach to U.S. policy on Haiti,' per Rubio.
— JORDAN BREWER is leaving the Cato Institute after serving as a manager of government affairs. He will join the State Department as special adviser in the bureau of cyberspace and digital policy.
— Retired Col. ERIC LECKEL has joined the National Guard Association of the United States as its chief of staff. He previously served on the NGAUS board of directors and was president of the Wisconsin National Guard Association.
— Cambridge Global Advisors has added PATRICK LECHLEITNER, ELAINE DUKE, KATIE TOBIN, RYAN SCUDDER, PAUL THOMAS, TIM DEVINE and MORGAN RYAN.
What to Read
— Kathleen Kingsbury, The New York Times: The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History
— Judd Devermont, Post Strategy: On Engagement
— Matthew Kassel, Jewish Insider: How Congress became impotent on foreign policy
Monday Today
— Council on Foreign Relations, 12:15 p.m.: The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals: Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control
— Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: A book discussion on 'Decolonizing Ukraine: The Indigenous People of Crimea and Pathways to Freedom'
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who fail to pass any visa vetting requirements.

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