Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts

As fears of all-out nuclear war intensify, scientists are sounding the alarm that the decision to launch a catastrophic strike could soon rest not with world leaders, but with a machine.
In a stark warning, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent group that monitors global security issues, reported that the decades-long decline in global nuclear arsenals has come to an end.
Instead, nations are now modernizing, expanding, and deploying their stockpiles at a rapid and alarming pace, signaling the onset of a new, high-tech arms race.
While AI and similar technologies can accelerate decision-making during crises, scientists warn they also raise the risk of nuclear conflict through miscommunication, misunderstanding, or technical failure, the report stated.
In a nuclear standoff, decision-makers often have only minutes to assess threats and respond.
AI systems can process vast amounts of information in real time, potentially aiding faster decisions, but possibly at the expense of caution.
Dan Smith, the director of SIPRI, wrote: 'We see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race at a particularly dangerous and unstable moment for geopolitics.'
'If the decision to launch nuclear weapons is ever fully handed over to AI, we'd be approaching true doomsday scenarios,' Smith continued.
The report follows Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear and missile facilities last week, sparking fears that WWIII may be imminent.
While the White House played no direct role in the strike, President Donald Trump suggested that Iran had brought the attack on itself by resisting an ultimatum in talks to restrict its nuclear program.
Iran does not possess such weapons yet, but its allies, Russia and China, have more than 6,000 nuclear warheads combined.
On Thursday, the White House confirmed that Trump will decide within the next two weeks whether to launch a military strike on Iran aimed at crippling its nuclear capabilities.
The announcement came as Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire and drone attacks for the seventh consecutive day.
According to the report, an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads are currently held by nine countries: the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
Nuclear powers, including the US and China, are ramping up production of new, more sophisticated weapons at a faster pace than they are retiring older stockpiles.
Smith and his team warned that incorporating AI into nuclear launch systems could significantly raise the risk of an accidental war.
Despite the risks, SIPRI said that governments are increasingly drawn to the speed and processing power AI offers.
'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence, both for offensive and defensive purposes,' Smith said in the SIPRI report.
'AI has a wide range of potential strategic utility; there are benefits to be found, but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk,' Smith cautioned.
The 2025 report also pointed out that at multiple times in the history of nuclear weapons, a cataclysmic war has almost taken place completely by accident.
One of the most well-known incidents occurred in September 1983, when a Soviet early-warning system falsely reported five incoming US missiles.
Fortunately, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty officer at the time, questioned the validity of the alert.
He reasoned that a real American first strike would involve far more warheads and chose not to escalate the alert. His decision is widely credited with preventing a possible global catastrophe.
'Had he believed the information, he would have passed it up the line and, though there is no certainty either way, his superiors, wrongly thinking they were under attack, might have decided upon retaliation,' Smith wrote.
Smith added that the speed at which AI operates means that in future conflicts, people like Petrov might not have the time to prevent a computer's decision to launch a retaliatory strike.
The SIPRI report also cited recent revelations about the secret arms race taking place among the world's nuclear superpowers.
Officially, five countries, China, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea, have increased their nuclear stockpiles by over 700 warheads over the past 40 years.
That's according to a 2024 report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a nonprofit global policy think tank.
The fastest-growing arsenal is China's, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023, according to SIPRI's latest count, which claimed the Chinese now have 600 nuclear bombs as of 2025.
China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the 2030s.
Of the estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide, about 9,614 were in the active military stockpiles for potential use.
Approximately 2,100 of the warheads that have been actively deployed are currently in a state of high operational alert - attached to ballistic missiles on ships, submarines, or planes.
'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' the SIPRI report warned.
'Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.'
SIPRI said Russia and the US, which possess around 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, kept the sizes of their respective arsenals relatively stable in 2024.
However, both were implementing extensive modernization programs that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future.

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