Latest news with #DanSmith
Al Jazeera
12 hours ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
What are the risks from Israel and Iran's nuclear capabilities?
Israel says that ending Iran's nuclear programme is a key aim of its attacks on the country. Israel is widely believed to have nuclear arms, but has never admitted that. So, what are the nuclear capabilities of both sides, and what are the risks from this conflict? Presenter: Laura Kyle Guests: Dan Smith – Director at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Sahil Shah – Nuclear weapons policy analyst in London Rebecca Johnson – Director at the Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy and former senior adviser to Dr Hans Blix, who was formerly the top UN weapons inspector in Iraq and an IAEA chief
Daily Mail
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts
As fears of all-out nuclear war intensify, scientists are sounding the alarm that the decision to launch a catastrophic strike could soon rest not with world leaders, but with a machine. In a stark warning, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent group that monitors global security issues, reported that the decades-long decline in global nuclear arsenals has come to an end. Instead, nations are now modernizing, expanding, and deploying their stockpiles at a rapid and alarming pace, signaling the onset of a new, high-tech arms race. While AI and similar technologies can accelerate decision-making during crises, scientists warn they also raise the risk of nuclear conflict through miscommunication, misunderstanding, or technical failure, the report stated. In a nuclear standoff, decision-makers often have only minutes to assess threats and respond. AI systems can process vast amounts of information in real time, potentially aiding faster decisions, but possibly at the expense of caution. Dan Smith, the director of SIPRI, wrote: 'We see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race at a particularly dangerous and unstable moment for geopolitics.' 'If the decision to launch nuclear weapons is ever fully handed over to AI, we'd be approaching true doomsday scenarios,' Smith continued. The report follows Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear and missile facilities last week, sparking fears that WWIII may be imminent. While the White House played no direct role in the strike, President Donald Trump suggested that Iran had brought the attack on itself by resisting an ultimatum in talks to restrict its nuclear program. Iran does not possess such weapons yet, but its allies, Russia and China, have more than 6,000 nuclear warheads combined. On Thursday, the White House confirmed that Trump will decide within the next two weeks whether to launch a military strike on Iran aimed at crippling its nuclear capabilities. The announcement came as Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire and drone attacks for the seventh consecutive day. According to the report, an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads are currently held by nine countries: the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Nuclear powers, including the US and China, are ramping up production of new, more sophisticated weapons at a faster pace than they are retiring older stockpiles. Smith and his team warned that incorporating AI into nuclear launch systems could significantly raise the risk of an accidental war. Despite the risks, SIPRI said that governments are increasingly drawn to the speed and processing power AI offers. 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence, both for offensive and defensive purposes,' Smith said in the SIPRI report. 'AI has a wide range of potential strategic utility; there are benefits to be found, but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk,' Smith cautioned. The 2025 report also pointed out that at multiple times in the history of nuclear weapons, a cataclysmic war has almost taken place completely by accident. One of the most well-known incidents occurred in September 1983, when a Soviet early-warning system falsely reported five incoming US missiles. Fortunately, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty officer at the time, questioned the validity of the alert. He reasoned that a real American first strike would involve far more warheads and chose not to escalate the alert. His decision is widely credited with preventing a possible global catastrophe. 'Had he believed the information, he would have passed it up the line and, though there is no certainty either way, his superiors, wrongly thinking they were under attack, might have decided upon retaliation,' Smith wrote. Smith added that the speed at which AI operates means that in future conflicts, people like Petrov might not have the time to prevent a computer's decision to launch a retaliatory strike. The SIPRI report also cited recent revelations about the secret arms race taking place among the world's nuclear superpowers. Officially, five countries, China, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea, have increased their nuclear stockpiles by over 700 warheads over the past 40 years. That's according to a 2024 report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a nonprofit global policy think tank. The fastest-growing arsenal is China's, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023, according to SIPRI's latest count, which claimed the Chinese now have 600 nuclear bombs as of 2025. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the 2030s. Of the estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide, about 9,614 were in the active military stockpiles for potential use. Approximately 2,100 of the warheads that have been actively deployed are currently in a state of high operational alert - attached to ballistic missiles on ships, submarines, or planes. 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' the SIPRI report warned. 'Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.' SIPRI said Russia and the US, which possess around 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, kept the sizes of their respective arsenals relatively stable in 2024. However, both were implementing extensive modernization programs that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future.
NDTV
2 days ago
- Politics
- NDTV
AI For Nuclear Launch Decision Is "True Doomsday Scenario": Study
New Delhi: Using artificial intelligence (AI) to manage nuclear weapon systems poses a catastrophic risk for humanity, the world's top institute on conflict research, SIPRI, has said in its 2025 yearbook. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) cautioned that an automated nuclear weapon launch decision system will lead to a full control of nuclear arsenals by AI, putting humanity at great risk. "We see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race at a particularly dangerous and unstable moment for geopolitics," SIPRI Director Dan Smith said in the yearbook's introduction, warning about the challenges facing nuclear arms control and the prospects of a new nuclear arms race. "If the decision to launch nuclear weapons is ever fully handed over to AI, we'd be approaching true doomsday scenarios," he said. Nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed nations - the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel - continued intensive nuclear modernisation programmes in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions, the SIPRI report said. Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 3,912 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft and the rest were in central storage. Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but China may now keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime, SIPRI said. Russia and the US together possess around 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons, the report said. SIPRI estimates that China now has at least 600 nuclear warheads. China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's, by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023. By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east. Pakistan also continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2024, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal might expand over the coming decade. North Korea continues to prioritise its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled around 50 warheads, possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more warheads and is accelerating the production of further fissile material.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Watco rail gets $600M in new private equity
Watco Cos., the rail and transportation logistics company that operates 45 short lines, has received a minority investment of more than $600 million from Duration Capital Partners, the companies announced Tuesday. The investment will be used to address Watco's long-term strategic investments, the company said, including assuming full ownership of Industrial Rail Services, rail operator at six Dow Chemical facilities in the United States and Canada. 'This investment from Duration is not just capital,' Watco Chief Executive Dan Smith said in a release. 'It's a long-term vote of confidence in our people, our strategy, and our future. We're grateful for their trust and energized by the opportunity to continue to grow with our customers.' The two firms have partnered on multiple transactions since 2018, with a shared commitment to investing in transportation infrastructure.'This investment is a testament to the strength of our partnership with Watco,' said Duration co-CEO Josh Connor. 'Watco exemplifies the type of company we want to support for many years to come – focused on safety, customer service, and operational excellence.' Added co-CEO Emmett McCann, 'Our relationship has grown into a deep collaboration, and we have helped many customers expand their businesses. Watco is a world-class operator, and we are proud to be their long-term partner.' Duration, a private investment company focused on North American transportation infrastructure, was founded in 2024 as a spin-off from Oaktree Capital. It manages more than $4 billion in assets involving ports, rails, and information. Subscribe to FreightWaves' Rail e-newsletter and get the latest insights on rail freight right in your inbox. WATCH: CSX delivers for Army's 250th birthday bash How technology Is helping Union Pacific help truckers…and rail shippers Sharp slowdown in intermodal rail a warning for H2: AARGreenbrier: Elevating rail safety standards with state-of-the-art training The post Watco rail gets $600M in new private equity appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio
Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Times
How the world could start a nuclear war by accident
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies. 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence (AI), both for offensive and defensive purposes,' he writes in the report's introduction. 'There are benefits to be found but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk.' He says that AI and quantum technologies could make it easier to assess compliance with any nuclear agreements that are forged. But they encourage speedier — and possibly less considered — decision-making. 'As the new technologies speed up decision-making in a crisis, there is also the risk of a war as a result of miscommunication, misunderstanding or even a technical accident,' he says. Nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Five are the permanent members of the United Nations security council, and signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT): the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Two declared nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, did not sign the NPT, while a third, North Korea, withdrew before conducting its first nuclear test. Israel neither signed the NPT, nor declared its nuclear weapons, but is believed to possess about 90 warheads. China has been expanding its arsenal fastest. President Xi ordered a modernisation of China's entire military but particularly its missile and nuclear capabilities, reportedly after details emerged about the decay of its missile silos. The modernisation appears to be working. The Sipri report says 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos have been completed, or are near completion, as of January this year. However, its total number of warheads remains a fraction of those possessed by either America or Russia: together they hold nine in ten of the world's nuclear weapons. As their relations have worsened since 2000, and an aggressive new breed of American strategists have questioned whether US choices should be restrained by international treaties, their existing arms control measures have fallen away. The so-called 'New Start' (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreed by Presidents Obama and Putin in 2010 expires next February with no sign that it will be renewed in any form. Until now, the disposal of old nuclear warheads has meant that the total arsenal has declined rapidly since the fall of the Berlin Wall. That trend is now over, the report suggests. 'The sizes of their respective military stockpiles seem to have stayed relatively stable in 2024 but both states are implementing extensive modernisation programmes that could increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future,' it says. The Sipri report raises the case of Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet officer sometimes heralded as the man who saved the world from nuclear Armageddon. In 1983, Petrov decided unilaterally but correctly that a computer which told him five American nuclear missiles were on their way to strike Russia was wrong. Jeffrey Kaplow, who researches nuclear security at the University of William and Mary in Virginia, said AI , if programmed well, could be used to assess risk in such circumstances better than humans. 'There's this idea that human decision-making in a crisis is not that great,' he said. AI could help leaders navigate the cultural context and goals of their 'opposition' more clearly, he said.'The signs are that a new nuclear arms race is gearing up,' Smith concludes. 'Compared to the last one, the risks are likely to be more diverse and more serious.'
