Latest news with #armsrace
Daily Mail
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts
As fears of all-out nuclear war intensify, scientists are sounding the alarm that the decision to launch a catastrophic strike could soon rest not with world leaders, but with a machine. In a stark warning, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent group that monitors global security issues, reported that the decades-long decline in global nuclear arsenals has come to an end. Instead, nations are now modernizing, expanding, and deploying their stockpiles at a rapid and alarming pace, signaling the onset of a new, high-tech arms race. While AI and similar technologies can accelerate decision-making during crises, scientists warn they also raise the risk of nuclear conflict through miscommunication, misunderstanding, or technical failure, the report stated. In a nuclear standoff, decision-makers often have only minutes to assess threats and respond. AI systems can process vast amounts of information in real time, potentially aiding faster decisions, but possibly at the expense of caution. Dan Smith, the director of SIPRI, wrote: 'We see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race at a particularly dangerous and unstable moment for geopolitics.' 'If the decision to launch nuclear weapons is ever fully handed over to AI, we'd be approaching true doomsday scenarios,' Smith continued. The report follows Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear and missile facilities last week, sparking fears that WWIII may be imminent. While the White House played no direct role in the strike, President Donald Trump suggested that Iran had brought the attack on itself by resisting an ultimatum in talks to restrict its nuclear program. Iran does not possess such weapons yet, but its allies, Russia and China, have more than 6,000 nuclear warheads combined. On Thursday, the White House confirmed that Trump will decide within the next two weeks whether to launch a military strike on Iran aimed at crippling its nuclear capabilities. The announcement came as Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire and drone attacks for the seventh consecutive day. According to the report, an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads are currently held by nine countries: the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Nuclear powers, including the US and China, are ramping up production of new, more sophisticated weapons at a faster pace than they are retiring older stockpiles. Smith and his team warned that incorporating AI into nuclear launch systems could significantly raise the risk of an accidental war. Despite the risks, SIPRI said that governments are increasingly drawn to the speed and processing power AI offers. 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence, both for offensive and defensive purposes,' Smith said in the SIPRI report. 'AI has a wide range of potential strategic utility; there are benefits to be found, but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk,' Smith cautioned. The 2025 report also pointed out that at multiple times in the history of nuclear weapons, a cataclysmic war has almost taken place completely by accident. One of the most well-known incidents occurred in September 1983, when a Soviet early-warning system falsely reported five incoming US missiles. Fortunately, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty officer at the time, questioned the validity of the alert. He reasoned that a real American first strike would involve far more warheads and chose not to escalate the alert. His decision is widely credited with preventing a possible global catastrophe. 'Had he believed the information, he would have passed it up the line and, though there is no certainty either way, his superiors, wrongly thinking they were under attack, might have decided upon retaliation,' Smith wrote. Smith added that the speed at which AI operates means that in future conflicts, people like Petrov might not have the time to prevent a computer's decision to launch a retaliatory strike. The SIPRI report also cited recent revelations about the secret arms race taking place among the world's nuclear superpowers. Officially, five countries, China, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea, have increased their nuclear stockpiles by over 700 warheads over the past 40 years. That's according to a 2024 report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a nonprofit global policy think tank. The fastest-growing arsenal is China's, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023, according to SIPRI's latest count, which claimed the Chinese now have 600 nuclear bombs as of 2025. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the 2030s. Of the estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide, about 9,614 were in the active military stockpiles for potential use. Approximately 2,100 of the warheads that have been actively deployed are currently in a state of high operational alert - attached to ballistic missiles on ships, submarines, or planes. 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' the SIPRI report warned. 'Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.' SIPRI said Russia and the US, which possess around 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, kept the sizes of their respective arsenals relatively stable in 2024. However, both were implementing extensive modernization programs that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future.
Daily Mail
3 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
AI could spark nuclear Armageddon and World War Three, experts fear
Artificial intelligence could spark an accidental nuclear war, conflict experts fear. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the world's leading organisation on nuclear assessments, said technologies like AI are aggravating the risk carried with growing global nuclear stockpiles. SIPRI pointed to China 's rapidly growing stockpile, from 500 to 600 in a single year, as well as the imminent expiry of the final arms control treaty between the US and Russia, two nuclear-armed nations. The institute's director, Dan Smith, warned: 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence (AI), both for offensive and defensive purposes. 'There are benefits to be found but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk.' He said that while AI could make it easier to assess states' compliance with nuclear agreement, it is also likely to give countries, as well as rogue groups, the ability to make quicker and less though-out decisions. 'As the new technologies speed up decision-making in a crisis, there is also the risk of a war as a result of miscommunication, misunderstanding or even a technical accident,' he says. Smith said: 'The signs are that a new nuclear arms race is gearing up. Compared to the last one, the risks are likely to be more diverse and more serious.' As it stands, nine countries have nuclear weapons. While five of them, being Britain, France, the US, Russia and China, have signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, India and Pakistan did not. North Korea signed it, but withdrew its signature shortly before conducting its first nuclear test. Israel, meanwhile, has not signed the NPT nor has it ever publicly declared its nuclear weapons - it is believed to be in possession of 90. It is currently battling with Iran, a nation that has been accused of developing the technology needed to create nuclear bombs. US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran, citing what he said was its government's rejection of a deal to curb nuclear weapons development, as Israel and Iran attacked each other for a fifth straight day on Tuesday. World leaders meeting at the Group of Seven summit in Canada called for a de-escalation of the worst-ever conflict between the regional foes, saying Iran was a source of instability and must never have a nuclear weapon while affirming Israel's right to defend itself. Trump, who left the summit early due to the Middle East situation, said his departure had 'nothing to do with' working on a deal between Israel and Iran after French President Emmanuel Macron said the U.S. had initiated a ceasefire proposal. 'Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that,' Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform late on Monday. The US president had earlier said Iran should have signed a deal with the United States and urged residents to evacuate the Iranian capital. 'Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!' Trump said on Monday.
The Guardian
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
China stockpiling nuclear warheads at fastest rate globally, new research shows
China is growing its stockpile of nuclear warheads at a faster rate than any other country, according to newly published research. A report published on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that China now has at least 600 nuclear warheads, with about 100 per year being added to the stockpile since 2023. At a regular foreign ministry press briefing on Monday, spokesperson Guo Jiakun declined to comment on the report but said: 'China has always adhered to the nuclear strategy of self-defence, always maintained its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and has not participated in the arms race.' Guo said that China adheres to a policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons at any time, and that China would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear armed states. 'China will continue to firmly commit to safeguarding its legitimate security interests and maintaining world peace and stability,' Guo said. At the current rate of increases, China could have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. That is nearly as many as Russia and the US currently have ready for use at short notice. Russia and the US's total inventories of weapons, which include both ready-to-use weapons and mothballed warheads, are far bigger. According to SIPRI's research, Russia has 5,459 warheads while the US has 5,177. The two countries hold about 90% of the global stockpile. Last year, the US approved a new nuclear strategy that is focused on the threat from China. China is thought to have 24 nuclear warheads that are already placed on missiles or located in bases with operational forces, meaning that they could be deployed at very short notice. Xi Jinping, China's leader, has expanded the country's nuclear arsenal faster than any other Chinese leader. Previous leaders, such as Deng Xiaoping, argued that China only needed modest reserves to act as a deterrent for potential adversaries. China's nuclear capabilities are of particular concern to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as part of its own territory. Beijing has resolved to 'unify' Taiwan with the People's Republic of China, using force if necessary. Chinese scholars have argued that having a powerful deterrent, such as nuclear weapons, could prevent any third party from intervening in a conflict. The threat of a US intervention in support of Taiwan is one of the factors that is keeping a war at bay. The report's authors noted fewer warheads are being dismantled each year, while the pace of deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating. Hans M. Kristensen, an associate senior fellow at SIPRI, said: 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end'. Hundreds of facilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), long-range missiles used to deliver nuclear weapons, are being built in desert fields in the north of China. Three mountainous areas in the east of China also house ICBM silos, according to the report. Additional research by Lillian Yang
Al Jazeera
4 days ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI
The world is becoming more unstable, and the likelihood that nuclear weapons may one day be used is increasing, despite the wishes of humanity. That is the broad conclusion of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) Yearbook, published on Monday. It is a compilation of SIPRI's recent research into conflicts, arms transfers and military expenditure, but it places particular emphasis on what SIPRI sees as a dawning new arms race among the nine nuclear-armed states – the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. Although the number of nuclear warheads in the world is declining as the US and Russia gradually dismantle 1,000 retired warheads, new warheads are entering stockpiles and will eventually outpace these in the absence of any treaties reducing or limiting stockpiles, said SIPRI. Improvements in potency, delivery and accuracy are also bringing about a new nuclear era, it said. 'We are at a step change, which has been going on since just before the pandemic,' SIPRI director Dan Smith told Al Jazeera. 'It's not just little bits and pieces here and there. It's everybody moving in that direction of upgrading, including the new nuclear weapon state of North Korea and the relatively new ones of Pakistan and India, who went nuclear in the 90s.' China is building 350 new launch silos in its northern deserts and mountains. It has assembled 100 new warheads in the past year to reach 600 and is likely to continue expanding at that pace. Although China has a no-first-use policy, it may be developing a launch-on-warning capability – a sort of reflexive counterstrike. China and India may both now be deploying warheads on missiles during peacetime, changing a longstanding policy of keeping warheads and missiles unmated. India may be developing longer-range missiles as it broadens its traditional focus on Pakistan to include China. North Korea is estimated to have refined enough fissile material to build 40 bombs in addition to the 50 it possesses, and has said it is about to launch tactical nuclear weapons. Pakistan, too, is stockpiling fissile material and its 'nuclear weapon arsenal … [is] likely to continue to expand over the next decade', wrote SIPRI. The UK is raising its stockpile from 225 warheads to 260 and building a new Dreadnought class of nuclear-capable submarines. France, too, is building a third-generation submarine and designing an air-launched cruise missile, both nuclear-capable. Israel is thought to be able to launch nuclear missiles from torpedo tubes in its existing submarines, but its latest, the Drakon, is believed to have a vertical launch system as well. All these nations, however, represent just 10 percent of the nuclear arsenal. The remaining 90 percent belongs to Russia and the US, with more than 1,700 deployed warheads each, and 4,521 in storage between them. In addition to being in the process of upgrading its nuclear-capable missiles, submarines and bombers, the US last year took delivery of 200 'modernised' nuclear warheads, the most in one year since the end of the Cold War. Russia, too, is modernising its air- and sea-based delivery systems, and may have placed nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Last year, it expanded its nuclear doctrine. Previously, the use of nuclear weapons was authorised when the very existence of the state was in jeopardy. Now it is authorised when there is a 'critical threat' against Russia's sovereignty or territorial integrity, or if there is a 'massive launch of air and space attack means' crossing the state border. Those means include unmanned aerial vehicles, which Ukraine often launches in dozens into Russia at a time. Russia's new doctrine 'could be interpreted to mean that Russia has lowered the threshold for the use of its nuclear weapons', wrote SIPRI. 'The mixed performance of Russia's conventional weapons in its war against Ukraine could reaffirm, and potentially even deepen, Russia's reliance on nuclear weapons in its national security strategy.' These changes are happening against a backdrop of intensifying conventional armed conflict in the world. 'The estimated overall number of fatalities rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024,' said SIPRI, citing five major conflicts: Israel's war on Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, civil wars in Myanmar and Sudan, and 'subnational armed conflicts' in Ethiopia. World military spending rose by 37 percent in the past decade, and by 9.4 percent last year alone, to $2.7 trillion, said SIPRI. The combination of greater nuclear range, firepower, accuracy and survivability and intensifying conventional conflict feeds a desire for proliferation, said Minna Alander, a fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security programme at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). 'The situation has triggered a nuclear debate even in unlikely parts of Europe: the idea of a 'Nordic bomb' has become a morning radio topic in Sweden and Denmark's ex-Foreign Minister, Jeppe Kofod, recently described a Nordic defence union with own nuclear weapons as 'not only a dream but a strategic necessity',' she said. 'This is a remarkable and indicative development, given that Denmark and Norway have had limitations on NATO's nuclear presence on their territories and Finland and Sweden have a history of nonproliferation advocacy.' Finland and Sweden have signed bilateral military agreements with the US that came into force last year, allowing the US to place troops and weapons, including nuclear weapons, on their soil. Poland has also signalled it is open to US nuclear weapons sharing. Now the US security guarantee has been weakened, said Smith, by US President Donald Trump, making NATO's mutual defence clause conditional on an arbitrary level of defence spending. 'It's very muddy now what the response is, because on the one hand, there's a quite clear line of 'the USA is no longer a reliable ally'. So that is the new reality as far as the security planners and strategists are concerned,' he said. 'Once you introduce one condition, any amount of further conditions is thinkable, and soon the deterrent has lost its credibility,' said Alander. The French and UK independent deterrents came out of doubt whether a US president would 'sacrifice New York or even Akron, Ohio, for Berlin', he said, but the US stance vindicates France's choice of complete autonomy. Of the world's 193 UN members, 178 have now ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), said SIPRI. Last year, four countries ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which aims to ban all nuclear weapons, bringing the total to 73. Another 25 have signed the TPNW, but have not ratified it. These efforts at curtailment and elimination stem from the argument that nobody can win a nuclear war, said SIPRI's Smith. 'Eighty years into the nuclear era, it still makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to launch a nuclear war under any circumstances,' said Smith. 'I'm pretty sure that Israel would use nuclear weapons if there was a serious existential threat. But it would achieve nothing. It wouldn't save Israel to do that. It would be basically revenge at best.'
NHK
4 days ago
- Science
- NHK
Swedish institute says nuclear war risks growing
A Swedish research institute says nuclear risks are growing as a new arms race looms. It says the use of artificial intelligence in defense systems could also increase the chances of a nuclear conflict. Those conclusions were part of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's annual assessment released Monday. The report looks at the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. It says nuclear armed countries had an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, down 164 from a year earlier. The report also says that an estimated 3,912 of these, or more than 30 percent, were deployed with operational forces. About 2,100 were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. It says "the era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end." Russia is estimated to have 5,459 warheads, followed by the United States with 5,177. The two countries are believed to possess nearly 90 percent of the total global inventory. The institute estimates that China has the third largest stockpile of at least 600 nuclear warheads, and that its nuclear arsenal is growing faster than that of any other country, by about 100 new warheads per year. It also says that as AI and other technologies speed up decision making in crises, there is a higher risk of a nuclear conflict breaking out as a result of miscommunication, misunderstanding or technical accident.
