Latest news with #geopolitics
Times of Oman
42 minutes ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
Air passengers in India likely to decline in June, after tragic Air India incident: Report
New Delhi: Post recovery of Air passengers in May 2025 after the cessation of India-Pak hostilities, a report by ICICI Securities says the aviation ministry passenger travel data number indicates further decline in June. "As per daily data reported by MoCA, average daily passengers had seen a decline in May'25 following the geopolitical conflict. However, post-declaration of ceasefire, domestic air travel had returned to normalcy. Average daily passengers again declined post the unfortunate Air India accident on 12 Jun'25," the ICICI Securities report noted. According to the report the average daily passengers in April this year was at 490K, however, a decline was witnessed in May 2025 due to India-Pakistan geopolitical conflict. However, Average daily pax returned to 490l before 12 Jun'25 (before Air India incident), post which it has declined to 460k again. On the international travel side, international air travel has experienced a setback since May 2025, weighed down by geopolitical issues like the India-Pakistan conflict. Recently, Air India has reduced its international services on wide-body aircraft by 15 per cent for the next few weeks. The decision comes after the tragic loss of 241 lives on board Air India-171 flight, which crashed in Ahmedabad. "Air India cancelled 83 wide-body operations between 12 and 17 Jun'25. As per daily data reported by MoCA, average daily international passengers have declined from 118k in Apr'25 to 113k in May'25 and 102k in Jun'25," adds the report. However, ICICI securities believes that the weakness in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) price could offset the weakness seen in passenger demand in May/Jun'25. ATF prices have experienced weakness as average ATF prices declined 8.2 per cent on a QoQ basis in Q1FY26 to Rs 86k/KL vs. Rs 94k/KL in Q4FY25. But now, because of the recent geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices are going up, which can change the dynamics for the airline sector. "On the backdrop of the current geopolitical scenario, crude oil prices have increased approx. 20 per cent since the start of Jun'25 to USD 77/bbl., as on19 Jun'25. This surge in prices may pose a threat to earnings in the seasonally weak Q2 ahead," the report said.
Times of Oman
4 hours ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
Brent crude prices to remain at $70 per barrel in FY26 despite Israel-Iran conflict: Report
New Delhi: Despite recent volatility and rising conflicts between Israel and Iran, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around $70 per barrel in FY26, according to a report by Emkay Research. The report stated that the oil markets remain fundamentally well supplied, with rising production levels from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries. It said "we continue to assume Brent price at USD70/bbl for FY26. Fundamentally, oil markets are well supplied with rising production." This steady supply is expected to help stabilise prices in the coming weeks, even though geopolitical risks may cause short-term volatility. The report noted that Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites and personnel had initially triggered a sharp 12-13 per cent jump in oil prices, with Brent reaching close to USD 80/bbl. Since then, prices have settled around USD 75/bbl, despite ongoing attacks from both sides. Iran has responded by hitting Israeli cities with missiles, and Israel has intensified its strikes on Iran. Signals from the US administration regarding a ceasefire remain unclear. According to the report, unless there is lasting damage to oil and gas infrastructure, similar to earlier patterns seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices are likely to stabilise. A ceasefire could even bring Brent prices down below USD 70/bbl. The report also highlighted that Iran has partially shut its South Pars gas field following Israeli attacks. A major fuel depot and a gas refinery were hit, but the impact seems limited to domestic markets. Israel has suspended operations in two of its gas fields that export to Egypt and Jordan. As a result, spot LNG prices have increased to around USD 13.5/mmbtu, compared to USD 12/mmbtu before the conflict. The report further noted that oil markets in 2025 have remained well supplied with rising inventories. Although near-term volatility may continue, the average Brent crude price for the year is still expected to be around USD 70/bbl. At this price level, both upstream oil players and oil marketing companies (OMCs) are in a safe zone. However, the report believed OMCs offer a more attractive valuation and better risk-reward profile. The report also flagged concerns over the gas market, as the early onset of monsoons has impacted demand, making the gas outlook uncertain.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold heads for weekly fall as fewer Fed rate cut prospects weigh
By Brijesh Patel and Anmol Choubey (Reuters) -Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline, as an overall stronger dollar and the prospect of fewer U.S. interest rate cuts offset support from rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $3,355.49 an ounce, as of 0245 GMT, and was down 2.2% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures shed 1% to $3,371.80. "Right now there's a lot of fluid situation in the Middle East that causes traders not to take any aggressive position both on the long side and the short side of the trades of the spectrum," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA. The conflict in the Middle East intensified on Thursday when Israel bombed Iran's nuclear sites, while Iran fired missile and drone strikes on Israel, including an overnight attack on an Israeli hospital. Neither side has signalled an exit strategy. President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, the White House said on Thursday, raising pressure on Tehran to come to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying the rates should be 2.5 percentage points lower. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, and policymakers retained projections for two quarter-point rate cuts this year. "Macroeconomic developments, particularly steady yields and renewed USD strength, have not supported the (gold) price," analysts at ANZ said in a note. "Rising inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious stance have weighed on market expectations around the number of rate cuts this year." The dollar was set to log its biggest weekly rise in over a month on Friday. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for other currency holders. [USD/] Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.6% to $35.82 per ounce, while palladium fell 0.7% to $1,042.92. Platinum fell 1.5% to $1,287.47, but was heading for its third straight weekly rise. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks Erase Early Gains on Fed Chair Powell's Inflation Remarks
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed unchanged. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are unchanged, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are down -0.02%. Stock indexes gave up early gains on Wednesday and closed slightly lower as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell sparked a wave of long liquidation in equities. Mr. Powell warned that tariff-driven economic uncertainty and inflation risk continue to complicate the Fed's chances to ease monetary policy. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged following Wednesday's policy meeting and continued to project two 25-bp rate cuts this year but cut their US growth forecast and raised their inflation forecast for this year. Stock indexes initially moved higher on Wednesday in hopes of a de-escalation of the Israel-Iran war. President Trump announced on Wednesday that he will convene another meeting with his national security team to discuss the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. President Trump said Iran had reached out about the possibility of negotiations, a claim that the Iranian government later denied. Stocks also found support after US weekly jobless claims fell as expected. Geopolitical risks are limiting the upside in stocks as hostilities between Israel and Iran entered a sixth day Wednesday with no signs of easing. An overnight meeting between President Trump and his national security team has bolstered speculation the US is close to joining Israel's attacks on Iran after President Trump called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender.' Iran showed no signs of backing down and reiterated an intention to respond with force if the US were to get directly involved in Israeli attacks. So far, there's been no closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz that handles about 20% of the world's daily crude shipments, although navigational signals from over 900 vessels moving through the strait have been disrupted due to 'extreme jamming' of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, which caused a collision of two tankers Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz. US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.6% in the week ended June 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -3.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -2.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.84% from 6.93% the prior week. US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -5,000 to 245,000, right on expectations. Wednesday's US housing news was weaker than expected. May housing starts fell -9.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.256 million, weaker than expectations of 1.350 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly fell -2.0% m/m to a 4-3/4 year low of 1.393 million, weaker than expectations of no change at 1.422 million. As expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds target rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% and said the uncertainty about the economic outlook has 'diminished but remains elevated.' The statement removed the language that the committee 'judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.' The FOMC cut its US 2025 GDP estimate to 1.4% from 1.7% in March and raised its 2025 core inflation estimate to 3.1% from 2.8% in March. The Fed's dot plot of interest rate projections shows the median fed funds rate forecast at the end of 2025 at 3.875%, implying two quarter-point cuts this year, the same as they expected in March. Fed Chair Powell said, 'We expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the coming months' as the increases in tariffs are likely to boost prices and that their effects on inflation could be more persistent. Investors are bracing for negative tariff news within the next week or so following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that came with his 90-day pause. The markets are discounting the chances at 10% for a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Overseas stock markets on Wednesday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 3-1/2 week low and closed down -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.04%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a 3-3/4 month high and closed up +0.90%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Wednesday closed down -1.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.8 bp to 4.396%. T-notes gave up early gains on Wednesday and posted modest losses on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said, 'We expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the coming months' due to tariffs. Mr. Powell's comments signal the Fed is not close to cutting interest rates and were bearish for T-notes. Wednesday's action by the FOMC to raise its US 2025 core inflation forecast was also negative for T-note prices. T-notes on Wednesday initially moved higher due to carryover support from strength in European government bonds. T-notes also found support after US May housing starts and building permits fell more than expected, dovish factors for Fed policy. T-notes are still supported by safe-haven demand after President Trump met his national security team, fueling speculation that the US may be on the verge of joining the attack against Iran. European government bond yields on Wednesday moved lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell -3.8 bp to 2.497%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -5.5 bp to 4.495%. ECB Governing Council member Panetta said the Eurozone's economic prospects face 'substantial' risks due to US tariffs and the fighting in the Middle East. UK May CPI eased to +3.4% y/y from 3.5% y/y in April, stronger than expectations of +3.3% y/y. May core CPI eased to +3.5% y/y from +3.8% y/y in April, right on expectations. Swaps are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. US Stock Movers Credit card issuers and digital payment companies retreated on Wednesday, concerned that they could lose market share to stablecoins after White House crypto czar Sacks said stablecoin legislation would cause the stablecoin asset class to grow and create demand for the dollar. As a result, Mastercard (MA) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Visa (V) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Corpay (CPAY) closed down more than -3%, and PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed down more than -2%. Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) closed down more than -6% after announcing it was offering $300 million in convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private placement. Zoetis Inc (ZTS) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Stifel downgraded the stock to hold from buy, citing 'developing headwinds' for the company. Allstate (ALL) closed down more than -1% after reporting May catastrophe losses rose +31% m/m to $777 million. Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after it partnered with Nodal Clear to use USDC, the world's second-biggest stablecoin, as collateral in US futures trading. Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after the company raised its overall data center total addressable market to $94 billion by 2028, up from a previous estimate of $75 billion. Bank stocks rallied on reports that US regulators plan to ease a capital rule limiting banks' Treasury trades. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and Citizens Financial Group (CFG) closed up more than +2%. Also, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Northern Trust (NTRS), M&T Bank (MTB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and US Bancorp (USB) closed up more than +1%. In addition, Goldman Sachs (GS) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Jabil (JBL) closed up +4% after Argus Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold, and Raymond James raised its price target on the stock to $230 from $170. Nucor (NUE) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q2 EPS of $2.55-$2.65, stronger than the consensus of $2.30. Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) closed up more than +3% after Raymond James raised its price target on the stock to $84 from $78. Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +1% after Guggenheim Securities raised its price target on the stock to $250 from $220. Earnings Reports (6/20/2025) Accenture PLC (ACN), CarMax Inc (KMX), Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), Kroger Co/The (KR). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Russia Today
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Russia Today
The end of Israeli exceptionalism
Israel has now been at war with its neighbours for nearly two years. The latest round began with the Hamas-led terrorist attack on 7 October 2023. In response, West Jerusalem launched an aggressive military campaign that has since expanded to touch nearly every country in the region. The escalation has placed the Jewish state at the centre of Middle Eastern geopolitics once again – this time, dragging in Iran, a state that had long avoided direct confrontation through strategic caution. Now, even Tehran finds itself under fire, with US backing making the stakes far higher. Iran is left facing a grim choice between the bad and the very bad. But this isn't about Iran. It's about Israel, a country that has for decades functioned as the West's forward operating base in the Middle East. Since the mid-20th century, Israel has enjoyed a privileged position – a bridgehead of Western power in a volatile region, while also deeply enmeshed in its politics and rivalries. Its success has rested on two pillars: the unshakable support of the United States, and its own internal capacity for innovation, military strength, and a unique social model. That second pillar, however, has weakened. The clearest sign is in demographics: Israel is facing rising negative migration. In 2024, some 82,700 people are expected to leave the country – a 50% increase from the year before. It is not the unskilled or disengaged who are leaving, but the young and educated. The people who are needed to sustain a modern state are choosing to go. Of course, Israel's troubles are not unique. Like many developed nations, it is struggling under the weight of a decaying neoliberal economic system. The pandemic made things worse, exposing the fragility of the model and encouraging a shift toward a 'mobilisation' mode of governance – rule through emergency and constant readiness for conflict. In the West more broadly, war and geopolitical confrontation have become a way to delay or disguise necessary systemic reform. In this regard, Israel has become a laboratory for the West's emerging logic: permanent war as a method of governance. In the autumn of 2023, the Israeli establishment embraced this fully. Conflict became not just a tactic, but a way of life. Its leaders no longer see peace as the goal, but war as the mechanism for national unity and political survival. In this, Israel mirrors the broader Western embrace of conflict with Russia and China – proxy wars chosen when actual reform is off the table. At the global level, nuclear deterrence limits how far such wars can go. But in the Middle East, where Israel wages war directly, those constraints don't apply. This allows war to serve as a pressure valve – politically useful, even as it becomes self-destructive. But even war has limits. It cannot indefinitely mask economic decay or social unrest. And while conflict tends to cement elite power – even among incompetent leadership – it also drains national strength. Israel is now consuming more and more of its own resources to sustain this permanent state of war. Its social cohesion is fraying. Its once-vaunted model of technological and civic progress is no longer functioning as it did. Some in West Jerusalem may dream of 'reformatting' the Middle East – reshaping the region through force and fear. If successful, it could buy Israel a few decades of security and breathing room. But such outcomes are far from guaranteed. Crushing a neighbour doesn't eliminate the threat; it merely brings distant enemies closer. Most importantly, Israel's deepest problems aren't external – they are internal, rooted in its political and social structures. War can define a state, yes. But such states – Sparta, North Korea – tend to be 'peculiar,' to put it mildly. And even for them, war cannot substitute for real diplomacy, policy, or growth. So has Israel, always at war, truly developed? Or has it simply been sustained – politically, militarily, and financially – as a subdivision of American foreign policy? If it continues down this path of permanent conflict and right-wing nationalism, it risks losing even that status. It may cease to be the West's bridge in the Middle East – and become something else entirely: a militarised garrison state, isolated, brittle, and increasingly article was first published by the magazine Profile and was translated and edited by the RT team.
