Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for June 20, 2025; why a 'sell on rise' strategy makes sense?
LKP Securities says traders should follow a Sell on Rise approach as long as prices remain below the ₹99,150–₹99,350 resistance zone. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have shown a weak trend in the past few days. Where are gold rates headed in the near-term and what should investors of gold do?
Here's the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:
Gold prices opened with a significant gap-down in the June 20 session, reflecting prevailing weakness in COMEX Gold, and continue to trade with a bearish tone in domestic markets.
The MCX Gold August Futures contract (05AUG2025) is currently quoting near ₹98,722 after touching an intraday low of ₹98,705, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels.
Gold Price Outlook
From a technical standpoint, the current setup favors a "Sell on Rise" strategy around the ₹99,000–₹99,150 levels. Here's why:
1. EMA Resistance Levels: The 8-period EMA is currently placed at ₹99,150, and the 21-period EMA is at ₹99,350.
Prices are trading well below both averages, signaling a clear short-term downtrend. Any intraday pullback toward these levels is likely to attract fresh selling.
2. Bollinger Bands: The price action is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, a typical sign of trend continuation in strong bearish momentum. There's no indication of mean reversion yet, which suggests that rallies may be limited and short-lived.
3. Pivot Points: The previous day's pivot level near ₹99,200–₹99,350 now acts as a key resistance zone.
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Failure to reclaim this zone reinforces the bearish outlook.
4. RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 32.75, which is close to the oversold region but not yet showing signs of bullish divergence. This supports the argument for further weakness before any meaningful reversal.
5. MACD: The MACD indicator is strongly negative with the MACD line at -34.71 and the histogram indicating increasing bearish momentum.
The signal line remains far below zero, indicating a continuation of the downward trend.
6. Price Action & Gap Analysis: Today's gap-down open confirms a breakdown from the range-bound structure observed between June 17–19. This price gap indicates strong selling interest, likely due to pressure in international gold prices and a firmer dollar index.
Conclusion:
Traders are advised to follow a Sell on Rise approach as long as prices remain below the ₹99,150–₹99,350 resistance zone. The immediate downside targets lie near ₹98,300 and further lower toward ₹98,000 if the bearish sentiment intensifies. A stop loss can be considered above ₹99,500 to protect against unexpected short-covering rallies.
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