Latest news with #JateenTrivedi
Time of India
11 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for June 20, 2025; why a 'sell on rise' strategy makes sense?
LKP Securities says traders should follow a Sell on Rise approach as long as prices remain below the ₹99,150–₹99,350 resistance zone. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have shown a weak trend in the past few days. Where are gold rates headed in the near-term and what should investors of gold do? Here's the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities: Gold prices opened with a significant gap-down in the June 20 session, reflecting prevailing weakness in COMEX Gold, and continue to trade with a bearish tone in domestic markets. The MCX Gold August Futures contract (05AUG2025) is currently quoting near ₹98,722 after touching an intraday low of ₹98,705, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels. Gold Price Outlook From a technical standpoint, the current setup favors a "Sell on Rise" strategy around the ₹99,000–₹99,150 levels. Here's why: 1. EMA Resistance Levels: The 8-period EMA is currently placed at ₹99,150, and the 21-period EMA is at ₹99,350. Prices are trading well below both averages, signaling a clear short-term downtrend. Any intraday pullback toward these levels is likely to attract fresh selling. 2. Bollinger Bands: The price action is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, a typical sign of trend continuation in strong bearish momentum. There's no indication of mean reversion yet, which suggests that rallies may be limited and short-lived. 3. Pivot Points: The previous day's pivot level near ₹99,200–₹99,350 now acts as a key resistance zone. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 가장 편안한 농장 게임. 설치 필요 없음 Taonga 플레이하기 Undo Failure to reclaim this zone reinforces the bearish outlook. 4. RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 32.75, which is close to the oversold region but not yet showing signs of bullish divergence. This supports the argument for further weakness before any meaningful reversal. 5. MACD: The MACD indicator is strongly negative with the MACD line at -34.71 and the histogram indicating increasing bearish momentum. The signal line remains far below zero, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. 6. Price Action & Gap Analysis: Today's gap-down open confirms a breakdown from the range-bound structure observed between June 17–19. This price gap indicates strong selling interest, likely due to pressure in international gold prices and a firmer dollar index. Conclusion: Traders are advised to follow a Sell on Rise approach as long as prices remain below the ₹99,150–₹99,350 resistance zone. The immediate downside targets lie near ₹98,300 and further lower toward ₹98,000 if the bearish sentiment intensifies. A stop loss can be considered above ₹99,500 to protect against unexpected short-covering rallies. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Indian Express
a day ago
- Business
- Indian Express
War risks, rising oil prices push rupee down to 3-month low of 86.73
Amid the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the rise in crude oil prices, the rupee extended its decline for the third consecutive day, shedding another 26 paise against the US dollar to close at 86.73 levels, marking its lowest close in the last three months. As the Middle East conflict is likely to worsen, the rupee is set to fall below the 87 level in the coming days unless the Reserve Bank of India intervenes in the market and prevents further decline, analysts said. The decline was primarily driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, making the dollar more attractive. Brent crude oil futures rose above $77 per barrel on Thursday, climbing to an over four-month high, driven by elevated geopolitical risks. Reports indicated that Israel attacked Iran's Arak heavy water reactor early Thursday, following Israeli President Isaac Herzog's statement about dismantling Iran's nuclear program. The prevailing risk-averse market sentiment and dollar demand from importers, fuelled by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, has pulled down the rupee value, analysts said. Moreover, muted domestic equity markets and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also pressurised the rupee, they added. Jateen Trivedi, research analyst, LKP Securities, said the rupee traded weak as rising crude oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions, including renewed US pressure on Iran's nuclear programme, weighed on sentiment. 'Additionally, the US Fed's indication that rate cuts may be delayed by around six months supported the dollar, adding pressure on the rupee. The expected trading range for the rupee is seen between 86.25 and 87.25,' he said. Rating agency ICRA said any escalation in the conflict in the area could significantly impact global supplies and prices. An increase in crude oil and gas prices will be positive for the profitability of upstream companies even as marketing margins of downstream players are adversely impacted. 'Iran's crude oil production is around 3.3 mbd, of which it exports 1.8-2.0 mbd. While Iranian oil and gas facilities have reportedly been attacked, the extent of damage is not clear. However, any disruption of Iranian production and supplies or a wider regional conflict impacting other large producers in the region could push energy prices higher,' it said. Crude oil imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE that pass through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) account for 45-50 per cent of total crude imports by India. About 60 per cent of the natural gas imports by India pass through SoH. At these elevated crude oil prices, while the profitability of upstream players will remain healthy and their capex plans will remain intact, the marketing margins of downstream players will be impacted along with the expansion of LPG under-recoveries, ICRA said.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee extends slump to 3-month low on Iran-Israel tensions; ends at 86.74/$
Indian Rupee extended its fall on Thursday to hit a three-month low as West Asia jitters deepened the risk-off sentiment among traders. The domestic currency depreciated 27 paise to close at 86.74 against the dollar, the lowest level since March 17 this year, according to Bloomberg. During the session, the currency fell as low as 86.90, taking the fall to 1.33 per cent so far this month. The currency traded weakly as rising crude oil prices and escalating Iran-Israel tensions, including renewed US pressure on Iran's nuclear program, weighed on sentiment, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. "Additionally, the US Fed's indication that rate cuts may be delayed by around six months supported the dollar, adding pressure on the rupee." Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Wednesday, rejected US President Donald Trump's calls for unconditional surrender. 'The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,' Khamenei warned. Trump, meanwhile, said on Wednesday that his patience with Iran had run out, with Bloomberg reporting that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days. The US military has moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the West Asia that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack, according to a Reuters report. Crude oil prices remained volatile after these developments. Brent crude price was up 0.26 per cent at $76.90 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were higher by 0.69 per cent at 75.66, as of 3:30 PM IST. With uncertainty persisting, the rupee may stay under pressure in the coming days, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. Meanwhile, the dollar traded slightly higher a day after the US Federal Reserve kept the interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downgraded US growth estimates while projecting higher inflation. 'The cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer,' Powell said. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.03 per cent at 98.93.
Hans India
2 days ago
- Business
- Hans India
Silver hits another record high of Rs 1.11 lakh per kg, outshines gold
New Delhi: Silver prices continued their upward rally on Wednesday, touching fresh all-time high on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), supported by strong industrial demand and favourable market trends. Silver futures for July expiry hit a new all-time high of Rs 1,09,748 per kilogram on MCX, breaking Tuesday's record. The September futures jumped even higher, touching Rs 1,11,000 per kilogram. With these gains, silver is now trading nearly 25 per cent above its all-time low of Rs 88,050 per kg. Analysts believe the metal will remain firm due to supportive fundamentals, especially with a revival in industrial demand. They suggest that investors consider silver as a medium-term tactical investment. Meanwhile, gold prices slipped for the second straight session. Gold futures for August delivery fell by 0.2 per cent to around Rs 99,329 per 10 grams. This comes just days after gold crossed the Rs 1 lakh mark for the first time ever on the exchange. As silver continues to rise and gold shows signs of weakness, the gold-silver ratio has dropped to around 91, after staying above 100 for much of April and May. This ratio indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold and is often used to gauge the relative value of the two metals. According to analysts, the gold market is currently in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Other global triggers, including rising tensions between Iran and Israel and ongoing trade negotiations, are also being closely monitored by investors. Tata Mutual Fund remains positive on gold in the long run, citing continued buying by central banks and the Fed's monetary stance as key support factors. "Gold prices traded in a narrow range as investors await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, scheduled for 11:30 PM IST. MCX Gold remained within the band of Rs 99,150 to Rs 99,750, while Comex gold hovered around $3,375,' Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities said. 'The current trading range for gold is seen between Rs 98,500 to Rs 1,00,500 in the near term," he added.
India.com
2 days ago
- Business
- India.com
Silver Hits Another Record High Of Rs 1.11 Lakh Per Kg, Outshines Gold
New Delhi: Silver prices continued their upward rally on Wednesday, touching fresh all-time high on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), supported by strong industrial demand and favourable market trends. Silver futures for July expiry hit a new all-time high of Rs 1,09,748 per kilogram on MCX, breaking Tuesday's record. The September futures jumped even higher, touching Rs 1,11,000 per kilogram. With these gains, silver is now trading nearly 25 per cent above its all-time low of Rs 88,050 per kg. Analysts believe the metal will remain firm due to supportive fundamentals, especially with a revival in industrial demand. They suggest that investors consider silver as a medium-term tactical investment. Meanwhile, gold prices slipped for the second straight session. Gold futures for August delivery fell by 0.2 per cent to around Rs 99,329 per 10 grams. This comes just days after gold crossed the Rs 1 lakh mark for the first time ever on the exchange. As silver continues to rise and gold shows signs of weakness, the gold-silver ratio has dropped to around 91, after staying above 100 for much of April and ratio indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold and is often used to gauge the relative value of the two metals. According to analysts, the gold market is currently in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Other global triggers, including rising tensions between Iran and Israel and ongoing trade negotiations, are also being closely monitored by investors. Tata Mutual Fund remains positive on gold in the long run, citing continued buying by central banks and the Fed's monetary stance as key support factors. "Gold prices traded in a narrow range as investors await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, scheduled for 11:30 PM IST. MCX Gold remained within the band of Rs 99,150 to Rs 99,750, while Comex gold hovered around $3,375,' Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities said. 'The current trading range for gold is seen between Rs 98,500 to Rs 1,00,500 in the near term," he added.
