‘I may do it, I may not': Why Trump's unpredictability on Iran could be his biggest asset
Donald Trump made a dramatic exit from the G7 summit in Canada and then hunkered down with his National Security Council in the White House situation room to plot his next moves on Iran.
Then on Wednesday he was asked by reporters whether he was about to send his bombers into action.
'I may do it. I may not do it,' he said on the South Lawn after chatting with construction workers putting up a 27-metre flagpole.
'I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble.'
It is a familiar playbook.
In a recent analysis of Mr Trump's leadership style, Julius Kirimi Sindi, an expert in business strategy said the president was not so much governing as running a non-stop negotiation.
'This uncertainty forces people to constantly second-guess their positions, giving Trump the upper hand in any negotiation or political battle,' he wrote.
'The strategy keeps both allies and enemies in a perpetual state of anxiety, which in turn, solidifies his control.'
Not for the first time, the president has deployed intentional ambiguity as he keeps friends and foes guessing about his intentions.
And once again, he is seeking to gain the upper hand by deploying a trusted 'art of the deal' technique to a tricky geopolitical challenge.
His final decision could be the most consequential of his presidency. Join with Israel in attacking Iran with B2 warplanes armed with bunker busting bombs and it could prevent Tehran from ever building a nuclear weapon.
But it might also unleash attacks on American interests in the Middle East, and tear apart his Maga coalition at home.
urging him not to become entangled in another foreign war.
Mr Trump was keeping his options open for now, according to Robert Shapiro, professor of political science, in the hope that something would turn up.
'I think in the best of all worlds for him, he would be perfectly fine with a negotiated settlement, which would give him the prospects of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, which is something he's always talked about,' he said.
'On the other hand, he likes the idea of clean military victory by dropping a bomb and claiming credit for that.'
The strategy of unpredictability has been at the heart of this White House.
It was how he handled his trade war, for example.
A week after 'liberation day,' a day before his steep tariffs were due to go into effect and one hour before the stock market was due to close, journalists peppered the president with questions about his levies and the turmoil they had unleashed.
Were they a bargaining chip to secure better deals? Or were they here to stay as part of an attempt to reshape the entire global economy?
'It can both be true,' he said. 'There can be permanent tariffs, and there can also be negotiations.'
And he has repeatedly fended off questions about his Ukraine strategy, punting questions about Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and his desire for peace into the future.
'I can't tell you that, but I'll let you know in about two weeks,' Trump told reporters in the Oval Office,' he said seven weeks ago.
The idea may be to keep adversaries on their toes, but it is just as awkward for allies.
The G7 summit came and went without a joint statement on Ukraine in part because no one is sure where Mr Trump stands.
On Wednesday evening, standing in front of reporters in the Oval Office, Mr Trump once again parried questions about whether he was about to launch strikes on Iran or allow more time to begin negotiations. Is he for real or is it all a monumental bluff?
'I have ideas as to what to do,' he said. 'I like to make a final decision one second before it's due.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Rhyl Journal
19 minutes ago
- Rhyl Journal
Israel-Iran war stretches into a second week without diplomatic breakthrough
European ministers and Iran's top diplomat met for four hours on Friday in Geneva, as President Donald Trump continued to weigh US military involvement and worries rose over potential strikes on nuclear reactors. European officials expressed hope for future negotiations, and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said he was open to further dialogue while emphasising that Tehran had no interest in negotiating with the US while Israel continued attacking. 'Iran is ready to consider diplomacy if aggression ceases and the aggressor is held accountable for its committed crimes,' he told reporters. No date was set for the next round of talks. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's military operation in Iran would continue 'for as long as it takes' to eliminate what he called the existential threat of Iran's nuclear programme and arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israel's top general echoed the warning, saying the Israeli military was ready 'for a prolonged campaign'. But Mr Netanyahu's goal could be out of reach without US help. Iran's underground Fordo uranium enrichment facility is considered to be out of reach to all but America's 'bunker-buster' bombs. Mr Trump said he would put off deciding whether to join Israel's air campaign against Iran for up to two weeks. The war between Israel and Iran erupted on June 13, with Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear and military sites, top generals and nuclear scientists. At least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 2,000 wounded, according to a Washington-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated by firing 450 missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel, according to Israeli army estimates. Most have been shot down by Israel's multi-tiered air defences, but at least 24 people in Israel have been killed and hundreds wounded. Israel's defence minister said on Saturday it killed a commander in Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard who financed and armed Hamas in preparation for the October 7 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the 20-month long war in Gaza. Israel said Saeed Izadi was commander of the Palestine Corps for the Iranian Quds Force, an elite arm of the Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran, and that he was killed in an apartment in the city of Qom.
The Independent
27 minutes ago
- The Independent
Americans are witnessing immigration arrests firsthand. Many say they can't just watch
Barefoot and armed with only his iPhone, poet and podcast producer Adam Greenfield raced out of his San Diego home after his girlfriend alerted him to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) vehicles pulling up in their neighbourhood. Nursing a cold, Mr Greenfield joined a handful of neighbours recording masked agents raiding a popular Italian restaurant nearby, as they collectively yelled at officers to leave. Within an hour, the impromptu gathering swelled to nearly 75 people, many positioning themselves in front of the agents' vehicles. "I couldn't stay silent," Mr Greenfield said. "It was literally outside of my front door." The incident reflects a growing trend across the United States, where more citizens are witnessing immigration arrests unfold in public spaces – from shops and gyms to restaurants – as President Donald Trump's administration aggressively works to increase such detentions. This heightened visibility is prompting many Americans, including those who rarely engage in civil disobedience, to spontaneously record events on their phones and launch protests in response. Greenfield said on the evening of the May 30 raid, the crowd included grandparents, retired military members, hippies, and restaurant patrons arriving for date night. Authorities threw flash bangs to force the crowd back and then drove off with four detained workers, he said. 'To do this, at 5 o'clock, right at the dinner rush, right on a busy intersection with multiple restaurants, they were trying to make a statement,' Greenfield said. "But I don't know if their intended point is getting across the way they want it to. I think it is sparking more backlash.' Previously many arrests happened late at night or in the pre-dawn hours by agents waiting outside people's homes as they left for work or outside their work sites when they finished their day. When ICE raided another popular restaurant in San Diego in 2008, agents did it in the early morning without incident. White House border czar Tom Homan has said agents are being forced to do more arrests in communities because of sanctuary policies that limit cooperation with ICE in certain cities and states. ICE enforces immigration laws nationwide but seeks state and local help in alerting federal authorities of immigrants wanted for deportation and holding that person until federal officers take custody. Vice President JD Vance during a visit to Los Angeles on Friday said those policies have given agents 'a bit of a morale problem because they've had the local government in this community tell them that they're not allowed to do their job." 'When that Border Patrol agent goes out to do their job, they said within 15 minutes they have protesters, sometimes violent protesters who are in their face obstructing them,' he said. Melyssa Rivas had just arrived at her office in the Los Angeles suburb of Downey, California one morning last week when she heard the frightened screams of young women. She went outside to find the women confronting nearly a dozen masked federal agents who had surrounded a man kneeling on the pavement. 'It was like a scene out of a movie,' Rivas said. 'They all had their faces covered and were standing over this man who was clearly traumatized. And there are these young girls screaming at the top of their lungs.' As Rivas began recording the interaction, a growing group of neighbors shouted at the agents to leave the man alone. They eventually drove off in vehicles, without detaining him, video shows. Rivas spoke to the man afterward, who told her the agents had arrived at the car wash where he worked that morning, then pursued him as he fled on his bicycle. It was one of several recent workplace raids in the majority-Latino city. The same day, federal agents were seen at a Home Depot, a construction site and an LA Fitness gym. It wasn't immediately clear how many people had been detained. 'Everyone is just rattled,' said Alex Frayde, an employee at LA Fitness who said he saw the agents outside the gym and stood at the entrance, ready to turn them away as another employee warned customers about the sighting. In the end, the agents never came in. Arrests at immigration courts and other ICE buildings have also prompted emotional scenes as masked agents have turned up to detain people going to routine appointments and hearings. In the city of Spokane in rural eastern Washington state, hundreds of people rushed to protest outside an ICE building June 11 after former city councilor Ben Stuckart posted on Facebook. Stuckart wrote that he was a legal guardian of a Venezuelan asylum seeker who who went to check in at the ICE building only to be detained. His Venezuelan roommate was also detained. Both men had permission to live and work in the U.S. temporarily under humanitarian parole, Stuckart told The Associated Press. 'I am going to sit in front of the bus,' Stuckart wrote, referring to the van that was set to transport the two men to an ICE detention center in Tacoma. 'The Latino community needs the rest of our community now. Not tonight, not Saturday but right now!!!!' The city of roughly 230,000 is the seat of Spokane County, where just over half of voters cast ballots for Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Stuckart was touched to see his mother's caregiver among the demonstrators. 'She was just like, 'I'm here because I love your mom, and I love you, and if you or your friends need help, then I want to help,'' he said through tears. By evening, the Spokane Police Department sent over 180 officers, with some using pepper balls, to disperse protesters. Over 30 people were arrested, including Stuckart who blocked the transport van with others. He was later released. Aysha Mercer, a stay-at-home mother of three, said she is 'not political in any way, shape or form." But many children in her Spokane neighborhood -- who play in her yard and jump on her trampoline -- come from immigrant families, and the thought of them being affected by deportations was 'unacceptable," she said. She said she wasn't able to go to Stuckart's protest. But she marched for the first time in her life on June 14, joining millions in 'No Kings' protests across the country. 'I don't think I've ever felt as strongly as I do right this here second,' she said.
Western Telegraph
28 minutes ago
- Western Telegraph
Israel-Iran war stretches into a second week without diplomatic breakthrough
European ministers and Iran's top diplomat met for four hours on Friday in Geneva, as President Donald Trump continued to weigh US military involvement and worries rose over potential strikes on nuclear reactors. European officials expressed hope for future negotiations, and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said he was open to further dialogue while emphasising that Tehran had no interest in negotiating with the US while Israel continued attacking. 'Iran is ready to consider diplomacy if aggression ceases and the aggressor is held accountable for its committed crimes,' he told reporters. Benjamin Netanyahu visits the site of the Weizmann Institute of Science, which was hit by missiles fired from Iran (Jack Guez/Pool Photo via AP) No date was set for the next round of talks. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's military operation in Iran would continue 'for as long as it takes' to eliminate what he called the existential threat of Iran's nuclear programme and arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israel's top general echoed the warning, saying the Israeli military was ready 'for a prolonged campaign'. But Mr Netanyahu's goal could be out of reach without US help. Iran's underground Fordo uranium enrichment facility is considered to be out of reach to all but America's 'bunker-buster' bombs. Mr Trump said he would put off deciding whether to join Israel's air campaign against Iran for up to two weeks. The war between Israel and Iran erupted on June 13, with Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear and military sites, top generals and nuclear scientists. At least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 2,000 wounded, according to a Washington-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated by firing 450 missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel, according to Israeli army estimates. Most have been shot down by Israel's multi-tiered air defences, but at least 24 people in Israel have been killed and hundreds wounded. Israel's defence minister said on Saturday it killed a commander in Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard who financed and armed Hamas in preparation for the October 7 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the 20-month long war in Gaza. Israel said Saeed Izadi was commander of the Palestine Corps for the Iranian Quds Force, an elite arm of the Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran, and that he was killed in an apartment in the city of Qom.
