JD Vance emerges as GOP front-runner for 2028, more than doubling Donald Trump Jr. in stunning poll lead
JD Vance leads 2028 GOP presidential poll, doubles support over Donald Trump Jr.-
JD Vance is quickly becoming a strong favorite in the 2028 Republican presidential race, gaining a clear lead over Donald Trump Jr., according to a new national poll. The survey by McLaughlin and Associates, conducted between June 10 and 15 among 1,000 likely voters—including 455 Republicans—shows Vance securing 36% support, more than double Trump Jr.'s 14%. These numbers mark a significant jump for Vance, who earlier this year had a much tighter lead over the president's son. While neither candidate has officially declared their 2028 bid, signs point to a growing rivalry that could reshape the GOP's future leadership.
Why is JD Vance gaining momentum over Donald Trump Jr.?
The shift in Republican support toward JD Vance reflects a broadening appeal across key conservative voter groups. Back in January, Vance held 27% in the McLaughlin poll, just ahead of Trump Jr.'s 21%. By April, Vance had peaked at 43% before slightly pulling back to his current 36%. Meanwhile, Trump Jr.'s support dropped steadily from 21% in December to just 14% in June.
Vance is performing particularly well among core Republican demographics:
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Conservatives:
43% support Vance vs. 12% for Trump Jr.
White voters:
Vance leads with 38%
Hispanic Republicans:
Vance holds 28%
Voters over 55:
39% back Vance; only 8% back Trump Jr.
Men and women:
Vance leads with 38% among men, 34% among women
Trump Jr. retains some strength among Trump-identified voters (39%) and moderates (16%), but these are not enough to keep pace with Vance's growing reach.
Is Trump Jr. really planning to run in 2028?
Despite frequent speculation, Donald Trump Jr. has publicly denied interest in running. In a 2023 interview with
The Times of London
, he stated,
'I'm not interested in politics… I'll leave that to others in the family.'
Yet, his frequent appearances at conservative gatherings like CPAC and Turning Point USA events have kept the rumors alive.
Live Events
Then came a notable shift in tone this May during the Qatar Economic Forum. Trump Jr. hinted at the possibility of a run, saying,
'I don't know, maybe one day… that calling is there.'
While vague, it was the first time he appeared open to political ambitions.
What's behind JD Vance's growing support among Republican voters?
JD Vance's rise appears tied to both political positioning and public messaging. As the current Vice President under President Donald Trump, Vance has built a national profile. He's also appealed to conservative values while maintaining a more grounded tone in interviews.
In April, speaking to
Fox & Friends
, Vance said he wasn't focused on 2028 yet:
'If we do a good job, the politics take care of themselves.'
A month later, he told NBC News,
'If I do end up running in 2028, I'm not entitled to it.'
These modest, forward-looking remarks may be resonating with Republican voters looking for someone confident but not self-serving.
Where do other potential Republican candidates stand in 2028?
Besides JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr., the Republican field looks underwhelming at this stage:
Ron DeSantis:
6%
Nikki Haley:
4%
Vivek Ramaswamy:
2%
Only Haley shows slight traction among liberal Republicans (16%), but that segment represents a small portion of the GOP base. These low numbers for other contenders only highlight the scale of Vance's current advantage.
When will candidates officially enter the 2028 race?
So far, none of the top names—JD Vance or Donald Trump Jr.—have officially declared their candidacy for the 2028 Republican nomination. But with Vance making moves and Trump Jr. keeping himself visible, announcements could start taking shape as early as 2026.
As GOP voters start looking beyond the current administration, the question of who leads the next chapter for the Republican Party looms large. If current trends continue, JD Vance may already be positioning himself as the new face of conservative leadership.
FAQs:
Q: Who is leading in the 2028 Republican presidential poll between JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.?
A:
JD Vance is leading with 36% support, while Donald Trump Jr. has 14%.
Q: Has Donald Trump Jr. confirmed his run for president in 2028?
A:
No, Trump Jr. hasn't confirmed but hasn't ruled it out either.
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