The Ayatollah's survival was no accident — it was Israel's choice, and a wise one

Israel just executed the most far-reaching decapitation strike in the history of Iran. Within hours, targeted airstrikes had eliminated Iran's top military planners — General Mohammad Bagheri, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and General Ali Rashid. Simultaneously, missile development facilities and key military coordination nodes were targeted, severing some of Iran's communication links with proxy networks in Syria and Iraq.
And yet the man at the apex of the system, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was not targeted. To some observers, this omission may seem inexplicable. But martyring Khamenei would have produced explosive consequences far beyond the battlefield.
Under Iran's constitution, the death of the Supreme Leader triggers an emergency succession process managed by the Assembly of Experts. Since the March 2024 elections, this body has been dominated by clerics aligned with the hardline factions.
Their candidate would likely be Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's son and behind-the-scenes enforcer. But Mojtaba faces a problem: He lacks the religious credentials necessary for the role. He has never issued a formal legal opinion, never taught in the traditional seminaries of Qom or Najaf and has never been accepted as a senior clerical authority.
In Shi'a Islam, legitimacy must be earned through decades of scholarship and peer recognition — it is not inherited as with a monarchy.
Had Israel killed Khamenei, this would likely have fast-tracked and legitimized Mojtaba's rise. Absent that, it would be very controversial. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Iraq, for example, has long rejected Iran's system of having a cleric as a political ruler. As long as the Ayatollah lives to a ripe old age, Mojtaba is both too illegitimate to unify the system and too protected to be sidelined. Thus, he may stall Iran's succession process into a doctrinal stalemate — one that Israel has now made more likely by weakening his military protectors while leaving his father alive.
Shi'a political theology is structured around martyrdom. The Seventh Century deaths of Ali and Hussein form the religious foundation of resistance and sacrifice.
Had Khamenei been killed by an Israeli missile, it would not have been processed politically but mythologically. His death would have been viewed as a reenactment of the Karbala tragedy. That would have sanctified his son, unified Iran's factions, and legitimized violent escalation from Iran's regional proxies.
These groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq — see themselves as guardians of the Supreme Leader's religious authority. Iranian defectors have long hinted at internal escalation plans that treat the assassination of the Supreme Leader as a trigger for full-spectrum retaliation: coordinated missile barrages, cyberattacks on Gulf energy terminals, and asymmetric operations against U.S. targets in the region. Sparing Khamenei denies Iran that trigger.
It also preserves strategic ambiguity. By targeting Iran's ability to act but not its spiritual figurehead, Israel prevents the regime from invoking an existential crisis. The message to Iran's mid-level commanders and bureaucrats is clear: Escalation is not inevitable. There is still room for recalibration.
Khamenei's regime has never relied solely on brute force. At the center of this is the Office for the Preservation and Publication of the Works of the Supreme Leader. While nominally a clerical publishing organ, the office functions in reality as a doctrinal surveillance and enforcement bureau. Under the informal leadership of Mojtaba Khamenei, it regulates clerical discourse, curates access to the Supreme Leader, disciplines heterodox scholars, and manages a patronage economy for the seminaries.
This system operates under the protection of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps senior command. The generals eliminated were the regime's enforcers of doctrinal compliance. Their presence deterred rebellion, reinforced Mojtaba's authority, and insulated the clerical apparatus from challenge. The strike helps to break this protective outer layer, leaving the regime's ideological core exposed and overextended.
Israel should keep targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command. But it should not eliminate Mojtaba or high-profile hardliner clerics. That would risk martyrdom and consolidation. Instead, it should be to disrupt the infrastructure that sustains Mojtaba's influence. This includes severing the financial lifelines that fund loyalist seminaries, exposing internal contradictions within Qom's clerical elite, and quietly empowering transnational rivals — especially those aligned with Sistani in Najaf, who reject clerical political rule altogether. The goal should not be to decapitate the regime, but to delay, fragment, and deny.
For the first time in decades, the Iranian religious establishment faces the threat of a vacuum of coercive insulation. In this new context, figures who once maintained quiet distance from the state may now emerge as active challengers to Mojtaba's succession, potentially leading to a schism that would dramatically affect the operations of pro-Iranian militias across the region. Their legitimacy not just to Tehran's treasury but also to the symbolic authority of the Supreme Leader.
If that authority is contested — if Mojtaba is promoted without consensus — then these groups may begin aligning with other clerics or factions. Figures such as Qais Khazali or Hashem Safieddine, who combine militia leadership with religious aspirations, could become new centers of gravity. The result would be the transformation of the Axis of Resistance from a coordinated deterrent bloc into a constellation of semi-autonomous and potentially competing actors.
In wars of theology, as in wars of missiles, the decisive blow is not the one that kills a man. It is the one that denies a myth.
Carlo J.V. Caro is a New York-based writer who studied and lived in both Jordan and Israel.

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USA Today

15 minutes ago

• USA Today

Live updates: Iran calls US airstrikes on nuclear sites 'outrageous,' says it 'reserves all options'

America's move comes after Iran and Israel have been engaged in aerial strikes and Trump had been pondering US involvement for the past week. The United States joined Israel's war with Iran after President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on three nuclear targets, winning praise and condemnation from members of Congress and new defiance from Tehran. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated," Trump said in a live address after 10 p.m. ET on June 21, threatening further U.S. strikes if Iran failed to accept a diplomatic solution. Bombs and missiles launched from U.S. warplanes hit nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. No U.S. personnel were injured in the operation, which struck Iran well after midnight on June 22 local time. With 40,000 troops in the Persian Gulf region, the United States faces potential Iranian reprisals in the days ahead. Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, warned that the country "reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people," saying America's strike was "outrageous and will have everlasting consequences." "Each and every member of the UN must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behavior," he said on social media. Trump's move was assailed by some conservative Republicans and progressive Democrats in Congress as illegal, while others praised the move after more than a week of Israeli airstrikes on Iran and retaliatory missile fire wreaking havoc in Israel. 'There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,' Trump said. More: U.S. hits Iran nuclear facilities, braces for counterattack Israel says Iran launched another round of missiles Multiple explosions were heard in central Israel, including over Tel Aviv, in the early hours of June 22. Israel's military said sirens that sounded across the region were "due to another Iranian missile launch." USA TODAY could not immediately confirm any information on potential fatalities or injuries in the strikes. Iran says it 'reserves all options' to defend itself Iran reserves all options to defend itself after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, Araqchi shared on X, saying the attacks were "outrageous and will have everlasting consequences." "Each and every member of the UN must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behavior," he said. What's the risk of nuclear fallout from the Iran attacks? The U.S. attacks against three of Iran's nuclear facilities, following Israeli attacks over the previous week, prompted questions about the potential risks of radiological or chemical releases. Both "The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" and the International Atomic Energy Agency have previously stated the offsite risks are low from attacks at Fordow and Natanz. But in a June 20 post, François Diaz-Maurin, an associate editor for nuclear affairs at the atomic bulletin, termed the offsite risk at Isfahan 'moderate,' because it's one of the 'most important sites for Iran's nuclear program.' The International Atomic Energy Agency began posting updates on the new attacks on June 21. The nuclear complex in Isfahan, a key site of the Iranian nuclear program, has repeatedly been attacked and extensively damaged before June 21, said Rafael Mariano Grossi, agency director. 'Based on our analysis of the nuclear material present, we don't see any risk of off-site contamination," Grossi said. -Dinah Pulver Attack used bunker-buster bombs The Pentagon's attack on Iran's nuclear facility employed its most powerful bunker-buster bomb as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from submarines, according to a U.S. official. Pentagon planners coordinated the attack with Israel to enter Iran's airspace, said the official who had been briefed on the mission but was not authorized to speak publicly. B-2 bombers dropped GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs, the first time they have been used in combat. The stealth bombers were accompanied by other aircraft, the official said, though it was unclear the type of warplane. The Pentagon's most sophisticated fighter, the F-22, was a likely candidate. President Donald Trump declared the attack a success, saying Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities had been completely 'obliterated.' The official, however, said battle-damage assessments had not reached a firm conclusion. −Tom Vanden Brook AOC condemns Trump's attacks, calling it a constitutional violation Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is the latest lawmaker to take to social media in the hours after President Donald Trump's strikes on Iran to weigh in on the move, calling it 'grounds for impeachment.' 'The President's disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers,' she said in the post on X, formerly Twitter, published shortly after Trump's White House address. Congress is the only branch of government that has the power to declare war, however, presidents have engaged in foreign conflicts in recent decades under the executive authority to authorize defensive strikes 'He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations,' Ocasio-Cortez said. 'It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.' −Kathryn Palmer Will Iran counterattack? Tehran could respond to Trump's strikes by launching counterattacks on U.S. military bases in the Middle East, current and former U.S. officials say. American bases in Gulf countries and Iraq and Syria could become targets, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro told USA TODAY before Trump attacked Iran. Iran could also target regional energy facilities and block oil and gas shipments from crossing the Strait of Hormuz, said Shapiro, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East in the Biden administration. Roughly 40,000 American troops are stationed in the region. Trump warned in a Truth Social post of 'far greater' force against Iran if it pursues retaliation. −Francesca Chambers Muslim civil rights group condemns U.S. strikes on Iran The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation's largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, blasted President Trump's attack as an 'illegal and unjustified act of war' that favors the wishes of Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu over the American people and threatens to drag the United States into a wider conflict. 'We condemn President Trump's illegal and unjustified act of war against Iran,' CAIR National Executive Director Nihad Awad said in a statement. 'This attack, carried out under pressure from the out-of-control Israeli government, took place despite the longstanding conclusion by our nation's intelligence community that Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons.' 'Just as President Bush started a disastrous war in Iraq pushed by war hawks, neoconservatives, and Israeli leaders like Netanyahu, President Trump has attacked Iran based on the same type of false information put forward by those who consistently seek to drag our nation into unnecessary and catastrophic wars,' Awad said. -Josh Meyer Pete Hegseth to hold a press conference from the Pentagon Hours after the U.S. military launched strikes against three nuclear sites in Iran, President Trump addressed the nation from the White House calling the operation a 'spectacular military success.' He said Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will hold a press conference at 8 am on July 22 at the Pentagon. Trump said the mission's objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the 'world's number one state sponsor of terror.' 'If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill,' said Trump. 'Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.' -Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy Iranian retaliation could happen anywhere, ex-official says Terror alert levels should be elevated in the near term, even in major cities outside the Middle East and anywhere Iran may have sleeper cells, said Andrew Borene, a former senior official at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Counterterrorism Center. 'What happens next is largely going to be driven by Tehran's next moves. Their shadow wars have never been confined to missiles, drones, and cyber attacks,' said Borene, who is now executive director for Global Security at private intelligence firm Flashpoint. Borene said in an analysis that there is 'a real risk of further spillover if Iran resorts to its historical use of asymmetric means through proxy terrorism.' Offensive cyber operations on critical infrastructure, or terrorist attacks by Iranian proxies, also could rapidly derail hope for de-escalation and diplomacy in the near term, Borene said. -Josh Meyer Peace or tragedy, Trump tells Iran 'There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,' Trump said. He noted that there are many other targets in Iran. 'If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes,' he said. -Sarah Wire Trump says 'future attacks' could be worse 'Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,' Trump said in his address to the nation. 'If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.' He then described tactics of the regime. 'For 40 years, Iran has been saying, 'Death to America,' 'Death to Israel,'' he said. 'They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That was their specialty.' The president appeared to be referring to attacks launched by Iran-backed militants in the years after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. -Erin Mansfield Netanyahu congratulates Trump on Iran bombing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised President Trump for bombing three Iran nuclear sites, saying the decision could lead the Middle East toward a future of 'prosperity and peace.' 'America has been truly unsurpassed,' Netanyahu said in a video statement. 'It has done what no other country on earth could do. History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime the world's most dangerous weapons.' -Erin Mansfield What is Fordow? Fordow is an Iranian underground uranium enrichment facility located about 80 to 90 meters deep inside a mountain, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. More: US bombs Iran: What to know about possible weapon, the 'bunker buster' It is located 20 miles north of the Iranian city of Qom. Fordow was one of three nuclear sites, including Natanz and Isfahan, that were struck by US military operations on July 21 to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. "A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," Trump wrote on Truth Social. -Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy Bomb-carrying B-2 stealth fleet launched from Missouri base B-2 bombers took off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri in the early morning hours of June 21. The warplanes are known not only for their stealth technology, but also for their ability to fly long-range and carry the big 'bunker buster' bombs used in the June 21 mission. With design and materials that limit its ability to be detected by enemy radar, the B-2 is thought to be the only aircraft equipped to carry the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or GBU-57, known as the "bunker buster." The entire fleet of B-2 stealth bombers is based at Whiteman, southeast of Kansas City, with the 509th Bomb Wing, part of the Air Force Global Strike Command. Fox News reported six bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Iran's Fordow nuclear site. -Dinah Pulver Democrats in Congress erupt at Trump Democratic members of Congress expressed outrage over the strikes, which they said they learned about from social media. 'According to the Constitution we are both sworn to defend, my attention to this matter comes BEFORE bombs fall. Full stop,' said Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes, who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, in a post on X. Virginia Rep. Eugene Vindman said Trump's handling of the situation was 'disgraceful." He asserted in a post that the U.S. was now at war with Iran. 'And so the United States goes to war with Iran without so much as a by your leave to the American people,' he said. 'No statement, other than on social media; no notice to Congress; no serious deliberation.' He added: 'This is the stuff of autocrats. Disgraceful.' War is something only Congress can formally declare. Lawmakers have also passed resolutions that authorized the use of military force like when the U.S. invaded Iraq. Trump has not said whether he plans to continue the bombing campaign, which he described as a "military operation" in a post on the attack. At least one Democrat came to Trump's defense, however: Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. "As I've long maintained, this was the correct move by @POTUS. Iran is the world's leading sponsor of terrorism and cannot have nuclear capabilities. I'm grateful for and salute the finest military in the world," Fetterman said. Democratic Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement that was critical of Trump that Congress should "fully and immediately" be briefed in a classified setting. – Francesca Chambers Can the president bomb a country without Congress? The Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to declare war. The president is the commander in chief of the military, which means he carries out wars that Congress approves. However, presidents of both political parties have perennially used the U.S. military to bomb or invade countries without formal approval from Congress. There have even been allegations that the Korean War and the Vietnam War were illegal. Congress attempted to limit presidents from using this type of power when it passed the 1973 War Powers Act. Trump was most recently criticized for potentially violating the War Powers Act when he bombed the Houthis in Yemen, notoriously discussed on the SignalGate chat that embarrassed top officials in his administration. -Erin Mansfield B-2 bombers conducted strikes on Iranian targets B-2 bombers conducted a series of strikes on targets in Iran, according to a senior Defense Department official. There were no casualties. Measures to protect the nearly 40,000 U.S. troops in the region have been incrementally increased over the last two weeks, said the official who was not authorized to speak publicly. The Army has been at third of four levels of alert at most places in the region, the official said. -Tom Vanden Brook More: U.S. hits Iran nuclear facilities, braces for counterattack Trump to address nation at 10 pm ET President Trump posted on Truth Social that he will be speaking to the nation at 10 p.m. ET on June 21. "I will be giving an Address to the Nation at 10:00 P.M., at the White House, regarding our very successful military operation in Iran," Trump wrote. "This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!" -Swapna Venugopal Republican lawmaker says Iran strike is 'not constitutional' Trump's decision came under immediate criticism from at least one Republican in Congress: Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. The lawmaker shared Trump's post on social media with the message, 'This is not Constitutional.' Massie had previously introduced a bill to prevent Trump from going to war with Iran without congressional authorization, which drew cosponsors that included progressive Democrats such as Rep. Ro Khanna of California. The GOP lawmaker was one of two members of Trump's political party who voted against his tax bill in the House of Representatives last month. Trump called him a 'grandstander' ahead of the vote and said he should be 'voted out of office.' Far-right GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, an ally of Trump's, publicly pushed for the U.S. to stay out of the war, a half hour before Trump announced the attack. 'Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war,' she said in a post on X. Greene has been one of the most outspoken opponent's within MAGA of American military involvement in the conflict that exploded on June 13 when Israel attacked Iranian nuclear sites. 'There would not be bombs falling on the people of Israel if Netanyahu had not dropped bombs on the people of Iran first,' she said on June 21. 'Israel is a nuclear armed nation. This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.' –Francesca Chambers State Department evacuations from Israel Earlier in the day, the State Department began evacuating American citizens and permanent residents from Israel and the West Bank, U.S Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced on social media. 'The Department of State has begun assisted departure flights from Israel,' Huckabee wrote in a post on X on June 21 asking people seeking government assistance to fill out a form. -Swapna Venugopal How the war started The strikes followed days of Israeli bomb and drone strikes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed at disrupting Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon, to which Iran responded by launching missiles at Israeli civilian targets. Netanyahu had been pressing President Donald Trump to enter the war, knowing the Pentagon possesses the ability to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment capability. In his first term, Trump pulled out of the Iran deal brokered by President Barack Obama in 2015, saying it did not do enough to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons. As the war between Iran and Israel has spiraled in recent days, he has repeated that Iran "cannot" get a nuclear weapon. Iran has threatened that the U.S. would suffer "irreparable damage" if it becomes directly involved in the conflict. The U.S. "should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage," Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on June 18. Only US warheads could penetrate Iranian nuclear site The U.S. Air Force has the unique capability to destroy deeply buried, fortified structures like those that house Iran's nuclear facilities. The Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or GBU-57, has a 'high-performance steel alloy' warhead case that allows the weapon to stay intact as it burrows deep into the ground, according to Pentagon documents. In 2012, the Air Force conducted five tests of the weapon at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Data and visual inspections showed that each bombing run 'effectively prosecuted the targets.' More: Israel wants to demolish Iran's nuclear facilities. Does it need US military help? There's only one warplane in the Air Force that can carry the bomb. Each B-2 Spirit stealth bomber based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri can hold two of the penetrators. Israel had sought the Pentagon to drop the bombs because their penetrating weapons cannot reach the depth necessary to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly. -Tom Vanden Brook

Forbes

25 minutes ago

• Forbes

Israel's Air Dominance Over The Middle East Was Decades In The Making

Israeli fighter jets fly low during the funeral of the former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and ... More Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli attacks last year, while tens of thousands of mourners attend their funeral in Beirut, Lebanon on February 23, 2025. (Photo by TOUFIC RMEITI/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images) Israeli Air Force fifth- and fourth-generation fighter jets are freely entering Iranian airspace and bombing targets and assassinating high-value military personnel every day with little to no resistance. These jets traverse Syrian and Iraqi airspace en route to their targets, where they encounter no obstacles. While such aerial dominance over three strategically located Middle Eastern countries dramatically accelerated in the post-October 2023 conflicts that raged throughout the region, it was also decades in the making. Fifty Israeli fighters violated Iraq's airspace on their way to Iran, Baghdad's representative to the United Nations, Abbas Kadhom Obaid Al-Fatlawi, said on Friday, noting that they came from border areas between neighboring Syria and Jordan. 'Twenty airplanes started, followed by 30 airplanes heading to the south of Iraq, and they flew over Basra, Najaf and Karbala cities,' Al-Fatlawi reported. The complaint stands in striking contrast to the deafening silence in neighboring Syria over the Israel-Iran War. IAF warplanes are not only crossing through Syrian airspace several times per day to strike Iran, but they've also intercepted a number of suspected Iranian-made drones there, which were either headed for Israel or U.S. bases in the area. Syria's transitional government doubtlessly wants to avoid becoming entangled in a war or risk confronting the Israelis. Israel already destroyed what was left of that country's strategic arsenal after the Assad regime collapsed in December. Iraq has American-made F-16s—but they lack any long-range air-to-air missiles. It also has Russian-made Pantsir-S1 medium-range air defenses—but they are also unlikely to threaten Israel's enormous aerial offensive. After all, Israel's air force has had lots of practice over the last decade evading and occasionally destroying the former Syrian regime's Pantsir-S1s and Buk-M2E anti-aircraft missiles, often through the usage of its indigenous standoff munitions. In his Friday statement, Al-Fatlawi also dubbed the Israeli incursions 'violations of international law and the UN Charter.' His statement brings to mind a historical episode from decades ago in which Iraq similarly complained to the United Nations about a much smaller incursion that took place under different circumstances. On October 4, 1991, four Israeli F-15s took off, flying at low altitude over Syrian airspace before crossing into Iraq and ascending over the Al-Qaim and Al-Walid border regions before returning home. That flyover occurred after the 1991 Persian Gulf War when Israel endured Iraqi Scud missile attacks on its home front ordered by then-dictator Saddam Hussein. The U.S. did not want Israel intervening in that conflict for fear it would fragment the multinational coalition, which included Arab states like Egypt and Syria, assembled to expel Hussein from Kuwait. Washington tried to reassure Israel by transferring additional Patriot missiles to defend it against the Scuds, which proved ineffective, and dispatching coalition jets and special forces to Iraq's western Anbar province to search for the mobile missile launchers. Israeli generals and military officials were eager for a direct retaliation amid the mounting Scud attacks, which hitherto were wholly unprecedented. However, Israeli intelligence on Iraq differed little from what CNN broadcasted during that war. Furthermore, the U.S. refused to share the coalition's IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) codes with Israel, meaning that if IAF fighters entered Iraqi airspace, they might encounter 'friendly' fire from coalition fighters in addition to the Iraqi Air Force. The U.S. suggested Israel could mount a strike using its undeclared surface-to-surface arsenal of Jericho ballistic missiles. However, the Jerichos weren't fully operational at that time, leaving Israel with no other viable option to respond. In light of these shortcomings, the October 1991 flyover was a belated way for the Israeli Air Force to demonstrate its capability to reach its adversaries on their home turf. A decade earlier, doubtlessly heeding lessons from the 1973 Arab-Israeli War—when an array of Soviet-made Egyptian surface-to-air missile batteries along the Suez Canal denied the IAF air superiority that won the 1967 war—Israel destroyed Syrian air defenses in Lebanon. In 1982, Israel launched Mole Cricket 19, a highly sophisticated suppression of enemy air defenses operation, in which IAF jets pulverized Syria's modern Soviet-made SAMs forward-deployed in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley. Israel's newly-delivered fourth-generation F-15s and F-16s also shot down over 80Soviet-made Syrian aircraft in dogfights without suffering any losses in return. Mole Cricket 19 was, in many ways, game-changing. Damascus still had formidable air defenses covering its national airspace in 1991 when those four Israeli F-15s briefly passed through. When justifying purchasing the fifth-generation F-22 Raptor stealth fighter in the emergent post-Cold War era, the U.S. Air Force cited the potential threat of Syria's air defenses, retrospectively describing them as one of 'the most modern … integrated air defenses.' The United States deposed Saddam Hussein in 2003, and Iraq only acquired the F-16s and Pantsirs mentioned above in the 2010s. Syria descended into a barbarous civil war in 2011. Israel began launching airstrikes on Syrian territory in early 2013, primarily aimed at preventing suspected Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon through that war-torn country. Israel would repeatedly foil Iranian attempts to supply Syria with air defenses or deploy air defenses to protect its paramilitary forces and allied militias, such as a Tor-M1 system Iran tried to set up in Homs province in 2018. Israeli jets dodged hundreds of largely ineffective Syrian SAMs in those years, although one F-16 crashed while under fire from a long-range S-200 missile in February 2018, an extremely rare loss for the IAF. IAF fighter-bombers frequently used standoff munitions in these strikes, sometimes launching them while operating in the airspace of Syria's western neighbor Lebanon. Syrian state media would often claim that their Russian-made SAMs, especially the more modern Pantsir and Buk systems, invariably intercepted most of these incoming Israeli munitions. Even a nominal delivery of a strategic, long-range Russian S-300 air defense system to Damascus in 2018 did nothing, and likely couldn't do anything, to deter Israel's air campaign. Apparent Russian efforts to enhance Syria's existing systems in the early 2020s similarly did not seem to deter the IAF operations even slightly. After armed opposition groups in Syria finally deposed the Assad regime in a lightning November-December 2024 offensive, Israel swiftly took action. With the former regime's army out of the picture, Israeli jets swooped in to destroy Syria's strategic arsenal of military hardware, including air defenses. Within days, Syrian airspace became more accessible to the Israeli Air Force than at any other time in history. Israeli jets could leisurely fly anywhere inside Syria they desired. According to one Israeli press report, IAF pilots could 'merrily fly in pairs' at 'any altitude, to any range, to any spot in Israel's first circle of defense.' And the icing on the cake for Israel, its bulky tanker aircraft, otherwise vulnerable to the most basic of anti-aircraft systems, could also fly over Syria with little risk. Israel saw this as an opening to conduct an extensive air campaign against Iran. Even before Assad's collapse dramatically increased its freedom of operation, the IAF launched a brief but extensive series of strikes against air defense and missile production facilities deep inside Iran on October 26, 2024, doubtlessly using standoff, air-launched ballistic missiles. In the mid-2010s, IAF jets trained against one of the Greek S-300s on Crete, cognizant it might one day face Syrian or Iranian S-300s. Israel said it hit all Iranian S-300 systems following that October strike, something Tehran disputed. It's highly likely that any surviving Iranian S-300s or components havebeen destroyed since June 13. The opening salvos of the ongoing Rising Lion operation against Iran's regime and nuclear program saw the IAF once again launching ALBMs at standoff ranges. IAF jets are presently conducting close-range bombings all across Iran of the kind that it previously didn't even risk attempting in Syria just a few years ago. It's unclear how long the Israel-Iran War will continue nor how long the IAF will seek to preserve this aerial dominance. Iraq is acquiring KM-SAMs from South Korea, which will provide it with a strategic air defense capability for the first time since 1991. Whether Baghdad would risk firing these at intruding IAF jets that are not actively attacking targets on its territory is doubtful, given the crushing retaliation doing so would likely incur. Syria's transitional government seems eager to avoid any confrontation with Israel for the time being and may even reach a peace agreement and normalization in the future. In the meantime, Turkey may play a role in helping Syria build new air defenses and provide air defense coverage on its behalf in the interim. Israel strongly objected to Turkey deploying air defenses in Homs—possibly at the same Syrian airbase where Iran tried to deploy a Tor in 2018—earlier this year. It likely feared its window of opportunity to use Syrian airspace as an unimpeded aerial highway to Iran—'as busy as Highway 6,' as Israeli pilots quip—could close if Turkey stepped in, especially if it deployed its S-400 systems in central Syria, which Ankara reportedly considered doing. Where Iran could turn to rebuild its decimated air defenses when the smoke from this war clears is anyone's guess. Its experience with Russian systems, or any fundamental political changes in Tehran after this war, could mean it will pursue non-Russian alternatives going forward. Interestingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a June 19 press conference that Moscow 'once offered our Iranian friends to work on an air defense system. At the time, our partners did not show much interest.' Iran was reportedly hoping to acquire S-400s in return for arming Russia for its war on Ukraine. Whether Putin's talk about working on a system referred to local Iranian production of an existing system, such as the S-400, or the co-development of an entirely new system is unclear. Interestingly, the KM-SAM Iraq ordered from South Korea fires a missile based on technology from the 9M96 used in the Russian S-350E and S-400 systems that Moscow shared but made entirely with indigenous Korean parts. It's unclear if Russia offered to help Iran develop a similar tailor-made system by sharing its existing technologies. What is clear, even as this war progresses, is that the present air superiority enjoyed by the IAF developed gradually over decades and then suddenly began in the last quarter of 2024. Learning from mistakes in 1973 enabled it to mount the game-changing 1982 SEAD operation against Syria in Lebanon. The first time its home front came under repeated missile fire in 1991 led it to develop one of the most advanced, multi-layered air defenses worldwide—and at least partially resulted in Israel building its unique ALBMs decades later. Dodging and gradually chipping away at Syria's dense network of air defenses from 2013-24 gave IAF pilots continuous training in a real-world combat environment and the ability to swiftly destroy most of the country's military arsenal the moment the opportunity presented itself. And now there is the truly unprecedented air campaign underway over Iran itself today.

Hamilton Spectator

42 minutes ago

• Hamilton Spectator

US strikes 3 Iranian nuclear sites, inserting itself into Israel's war with Iran

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States attacked three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel's war aimed at destroying the country's nuclear program in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe that prompted fears of a wider regional conflict. Addressing the nation from the White House, President Donald Trump asserted that Iran's key nuclear sites were 'completely and fully obliterated.' There was no independent damage assessment. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran confirmed that attacks took place on its Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz sites, but it insisted that its nuclear program will not be stopped. Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog said there were no signs of radioactive contamination at the three locations. It was not clear whether the U.S. would continue attacking Iran alongside its ally Israel, which has been engaged in a war with Iran for nine days. Trump acted without congressional authorization , and he warned that there would be additional strikes if Tehran retaliated against U.S. forces. 'There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran,' he said. Iran's top diplomat, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, warned in a post on X that the U.S. attacks 'will have everlasting consequences' and that Tehran 'reserves all options' to retaliate. Hours later, Iranian missiles struck areas in northern and central Israel, according to an Israeli rescue service. United Hatzalah said it was dispatching first responders, but here was no immediate word on casualties or damage. The US helped Israel strike Iran's toughest nuclear site Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, and U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Tehran is not actively pursuing a bomb. However, Trump and Israeli leaders have claimed that Iran could quickly assemble a nuclear weapon, making it an imminent threat. The decision to directly involve the U.S. in the war comes after more than a week of strikes by Israel that significantly degraded Iran's air defenses and offensive missile capabilities, and damaged its nuclear enrichment facilities. But U.S. and Israeli officials have said American B-2 stealth bombers and the 30,000-pound (13,500-kilogram) bunker-buster bomb that only they have been configured to carry offered the best chance of destroying heavily fortified sites connected to the Iranian nuclear program buried deep underground. Trump appears to have made the calculation — at the prodding of Israeli officials and many Republican lawmakers — that Israel's operation had softened the ground and presented a perhaps unparalleled opportunity to set back Iran's nuclear program, perhaps permanently. 'We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,' Trump said in a post on social media, using common alternate spellings for two of the sites. 'All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home.' Trump added in a later post: 'This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!' Israel announced Sunday that it had closed its airspace to both inbound and outbound flights in the wake of the U.S. attacks. The White House and Pentagon did not immediately elaborate on the operation. U.S. military leaders are scheduled to provide a briefing at 8 a.m. Eastern. The attack used bunker-buster bombs on Iran's Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant that is built deep into a mountain, a U.S. official said. The weapons are designed to penetrate the ground before exploding. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations. In addition, U.S. submarines launched about 30 Tomahawk missiles, according to another U.S. official who also spoke on condition of anonymity. The International Atomic Energy Agency wrote on X that there has been 'no increase in off-site radiation levels' after the strikes. 'The IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time,' it said. The 'IAEA will provide further assessments on situation in Iran as more information becomes available.' Trump's turn to strikes departs from some previous statements The strikes are a perilous decision for Trump, who won the White House on the promise of keeping America out of costly foreign conflicts and scoffed at the value of American interventionism. But Trump also vowed that he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, and he had initially hoped that the threat of force would bring the country's leaders to give up its nuclear program peacefully. For months, Trump said he was dedicated to a diplomatic push to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. And he twice — in April and again in late May — persuaded Netanyahu to hold off on military action against Iran and give diplomacy more time. After Israel began striking Iran, Trump went from publicly expressing hope that the moment could be a 'second chance' for Iran to make a deal to delivering explicit threats on Khamenei and making calls for Tehran's unconditional surrender. He has bristled at criticism from some of his MAGA faithful who have suggested that further U.S. involvement would be a betrayal to supporters who were drawn to his promise to end U.S. involvement in expensive and endless wars. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump's decision to attack in a video message directed at the American president. 'Your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities, with the awesome and righteous might of the United States, will change history,' he said. Netanyahu said the U.S. 'has done what no other country on earth could do.' The military showdown with Iran comes seven years after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-administration brokered agreement in 2018, calling it the 'worst deal ever.' Fears of a broader war U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was 'gravely alarmed' by the 'dangerous escalation' of American strikes. 'There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control — with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region and the world,' he said in a statement. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they would resume attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea if the Trump administration joined Israel's military campaign. The Houthis paused such attacks in May under a deal with the U.S. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the United States on Wednesday that strikes targeting the Islamic Republic will 'result in irreparable damage for them.' And Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei declared 'any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region.' The Israeli military said Saturday it was preparing for the possibility of a lengthy war, while Iran's foreign minister warned before the U.S. attack that American military involvement 'would be very, very dangerous for everyone.' Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 865 people and wounded 3,396 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists. The group said of those dead, it identified 363 civilians and 215 security force personnel. Trump's decision for direct U.S. military intervention comes after his administration made an unsuccessful two-month push — including with high-level, direct negotiations with the Iranians — aimed at persuading Tehran to curb its nuclear program. ___ Madhani reported from Morristown, N.J. Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi and Mehdi Fattahi in Iran, Lolita Baldor in Narragansett, Rhode Island, Samy Magdy in Cairo, contributed to this story. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .