Latest news with #Houthis
The Hill
33 minutes ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Judge says it's too late to order recovery of Trump officials' Signal messages
A federal judge on Friday said it's too late to order the recovery of already-deleted Signal messages from key members of President Trump's Cabinet, largely rejecting a request from an oversight group to get involved. But U.S. District Judge James Boasberg did order acting National Archivist and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to ask Attorney General Pam Bondi to take steps to preserve Signal chats across the government at risk of being deleted. 'At this juncture, the Court largely denies American Oversight's slew of requests and will instead grant only narrower relief,' the judge wrote. American Oversight, a group that regularly files records lawsuits against the federal government, sued five top Trump officials following revelations that they discussed a military strike in a group chat on the encrypted messaging app — and unintentionally included a journalist. They had asked the judge to order the officials to preserve all Signal communications and recover chats that had been deleted. However, Boasberg noted, American Oversight's own 'emphatically stated' representation to the court was that destroyed Signal messages cannot be recovered and to issue the directive would be fruitless. The challengers' 'hardline stance' that deleted Signal messages are gone for good overshadows their later efforts to suggest recovering the messages might be possible, especially if the nation's intelligence agencies were to try. 'Although Plaintiff tries to walk that stance back — claiming in its Reply that recovery is feasible '[r]egardless of Signal's statement of policy,' — that belated assertion wilts in the face of its repeated claims to the contrary in both its Amended Complaint and Motion,' Boasberg said. Though Boasberg ordered Rubio to ask Bondi to act on the messages 'not yet gone with the wind,' he also noted that the attorney general has the discretion to ignore that request. Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic's editor-in-chief, revealed the Signal group chat after he was unintentionally added to it by now-former national security adviser Michael Waltz. The Trump officials used the encrypted chat to discuss a strike on the Houthis in Yemen. More than a dozen top officials, like Vice President Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, were part of the chat. However, only five were sued: Hegseth, Rubio, CIA director John Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. The Hill requested comment from American Oversight.
LBCI
an hour ago
- Politics
- LBCI
Middle East on edge: Hezbollah holds fire for now as Iran warns it is not alone
Report by Ghida Fayad, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi Tensions in the Middle East are escalating rapidly, with the region inching closer to a broader conflict amid the deepening confrontation between Iran and Israel. As threats of American intervention loom, concerns are mounting that Tehran's allies could soon join the battlefield. Secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council, Mohsen Rezaee, underscored in a statement that Iran has so far used only a fraction of its capabilities. He said, "We've used just 30% of our power. We haven't activated our land or naval forces, our oil leverage, the Strait of Hormuz, or our friends in the countries surrounding the occupied territories—though they've expressed willingness to help." That willingness has started to manifest in clear warnings from Iran-aligned groups across the region. Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah faction has threatened to target American bases and interests in the event of U.S. involvement, vowing also to shut down the vital Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab straits. In Yemen, the Houthis—who previously fired missiles toward Israel in support of Iran—reportedly told Reuters they would strike American interests if Washington entered the fray. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has not declared a definitive stance on entering the war. Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem stated that the group is "not neutral" and will act as it deems necessary. However, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri adopted a more decisive tone, insisting Lebanon will not participate in the war "200%," saying the country has no interest in joining the conflict and that Iran does not need its support. He emphasized that the real threat stems from Israel, which he accused of seeking to expand the scope of the battle. According to sources close to Berri, Qassem's comments were seen as a politically symbolic gesture of solidarity rather than a military commitment. For its part, Israel continues to issue stern warnings. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz criticized Hezbollah's Naim Qassem, accusing him of failing to learn from the past and threatening severe retaliation. "Israel's patience has run out with those who threaten us," Katz declared.
Khabar Agency
an hour ago
- Business
- Khabar Agency
U.S. Treasury Takes Major Action Against Iran Maritime Network and Houthi Oil Smuggling Operations
At the center of the Iran-focused sanctions is the Panama-flagged bulk carrier SHUN KAI XING, owned by Hong Kong-based Unico Shipping Co Ltd. The vessel was caught transporting sensitive machinery intended for Iran's defense industry. The shipment was destined for two Iranian companies: the OFAC-designated Rayan Roshd Afzar Company (RRA) and Towse Sanaye Nim Resanaye Tarashe. 'The United States remains resolved to disrupt any effort by Iran to procure the sensitive, dual-use technology, components, and machinery that underpin the regime's ballistic missile, unmanned aerial vehicle, and asymmetric weapons programs,' said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The investigation revealed a complex network of companies involved in the attempted smuggling operation. China-based Futech Co Limited and Dongguan Zanyin Machinery and Equipment Co Ltd were identified as the original shippers of the sensitive goods. When the shipment was inspected, Unico Shipping attempted to conceal the Iranian destinations through falsified documentation. In a parallel action, OFAC targeted the Houthi maritime network, sanctioning four individuals, 12 entities, and two vessels involved in oil smuggling operations. The sanctions, the largest against the Iran-backed group to date, specifically target Houthi front companies operating in Sana'a and Hudaydah, Yemen, which have been generating significant revenue through black market oil sales. Among the designated entities is Black Diamond Petroleum Derivatives, a Sana'a-based company managed by U.S.-designated Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam. The company has been identified as a key player in smuggling Iranian oil into Yemen. Another significant target is Royal Plus Shipping Services and Commercial Agencies, which has facilitated oil sales from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and managed weapons-related financial transfers between the Houthis, Russia, and Iran. 'Today's action—our most significant to date against the group—underscores our commitment to disrupting the Houthis' financial and shipping pipelines that enable their reckless behavior in the Red Sea and the surrounding region,' said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Michael Faulkender. The sanctions were implemented under Executive Order 13382, which targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, and Executive Order 13224, as amended. These actions build upon previous enforcement measures taken throughout 2024 and early 2025, reflecting an escalating response to Iran-backed maritime threats. HOUTHI OIL TRADERS AND SHIPPING FACILITATORS The Houthis use a web of trusted companies headquartered in Sana'a and Hudaydah, Yemen to facilitate the sale of oil across Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, many of which are directly linked to high-ranking Houthi operatives. Houthi leaders charge Yemenis exorbitant prices for oil and oil derivatives, pocketing the proceeds from these sales for personal gain and to fund the group's militant operations. Black Diamond Petroleum Derivatives(Black Diamond) is a Sana'a-based company that facilitates oil sales and payments in support of the Houthis. Black Diamond is tied to key Houthi leaders and businessmen, including the U.S.-designated Houthi spokespersonMohammed Abdulsalam (Abdulsalam), who manages Black Diamond's operations. Black Diamond smuggled Iranian oil into Yemen, and the Houthi movement relied on the revenue from the sale of this oil for its operations. Houthi leaders have also showcased Black Diamond's ability to import tens of thousands of tons of oil every month during negotiations with representatives from the Russian government over future oil deals between the Houthis and Moscow. Star Plus Yemen (Star Plus) is a Hudaydah-based company that operates under the direction of Abdulsalam and other prominent Houthi operatives. Star Plus acts as a broker between Houthi-aligned front companies and suppliers to extract revenue from oil sales within Yemen. In addition to supporting Houthi oil importation schemes, Star Plus has also facilitated Houthi efforts to purchase and smuggle dual-use components used to manufacture weapons from suppliers in Asia into Houthi-controlled ports. Tamco Establishment for Oil Derivatives(Tamco), headquartered in Sana'a, is a key front company in the Houthis' oil smuggling network, enabling Houthi operatives to conceal the true beneficiaries and end-users of imported oil and other commodities. Tamco operates under the supervision of Houthi operatives and affiliates, including Abdulsalam. The Sana'a-based Royal Plus Shipping Services and Commercial Agencies(Royal Plus) is a front company that has enabled Houthi oil smuggling and sales. Royal Plus has facilitated the sale of oil sourced from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), delivering the proceeds from these sales to Houthi leaders in exchange for a privileged position within the Houthis' oil derivatives market. Royal Plus has also acted as a payments facilitator in support of Houthi procurement efforts, managing financial transfers between the Houthis, Russia, and Iran for the purchase and acquisition of weapons and other military equipment, including UAV engines. Yahya Al-Usaili Company for Import Limited(Al-Usaili Co) is a Houthi front company that coordinates with Houthi operatives in Sana'a to import oil in exchange for foreign currency. Al-Usaili Co makes and receives payments for oil sales using accounts held at banks located in Houthi-controlled territory, which enables Al-Usaili Co to hide the end-users and beneficiaries of these sales in support of Houthi smuggling efforts. Al-Usaili Co maintained connections with the IRGC, which it leveraged to facilitate the importation of petroleum products for the Houthis. Gasoline Aman Company for Oil Derivatives Imports(Gasoline Aman), headquartered in Sana'a, is a Houthi front company that facilitates Houthi oil smuggling operations. The Houthis allow Gasoline Aman and other front companies to receive a small percentage fee from each oil sale in exchange for hiding Houthi involvement in the transaction. Azzahra Establishment for Commerce and Agencies(Azzahra) is a Houthi front company that plays a key role in transferring funds from oil sales to Houthi operatives and Houthi-affiliated organizations. Azzahra has enabled the Houthis to extract revenue from oil sales by laundering hundreds of millions of dollars for Houthi leaders in Hudaydah. Yemen Elaph Petroleum Derivatives Import(Yemen Elaph) is a Sana'a-based oil import company owned by Houthi operative Abdullah Ahsan Abdullah Dabbash(Dabbash). Under Dabbash's leadership, Yemen Elaph imports, sells, and distributes oil derivatives via the black market in Houthi-controlled areas and is one of only a few Houthi-controlled companies that has exclusive rights to import through the Houthi-controlled ports of Hudaydah and Al-Salif. Abbot Trading Co., Ltd.(Abbot) is a Sana'a-based shipping and logistics company that has generated revenue by facilitating oil and oil derivatives sales in Houthi-controlled areas. Abbot is one of the most important Houthi-affiliated front companies established by Houthi operatives within the past 10 years to control trade in oil derivatives, general trade, and other critical economic sectors. The Houthis funnel profits from Abbot's activities to finance the group's attacks and procurement of military-grade items. Prominent Houthi businessman Ali Ahmed Daghsan Talea (Talea) operates Abbot in coordination with his brother, Houthi smuggling operative Daghsan Ahmed Daghsan (Daghsan). Talea leverages Abbot to generate revenue in support of the Houthis from oil sales and smuggling efforts. Daghsan manages Abbot as one part of a broader network of front companies that funnel vast sums of money to the Houthis from key sectors of Yemen's economy, including oil and gas, import and export, and general trade. Daghsan, Talea, and other Houthi leaders have coordinated to establish numerous companies registered under the names of Daghsan's other family members. Black Diamond Petroleum Derivatives, Star Plus Yemen, Tamco Establishment for Oil Derivatives, Royal Plus Shipping Services and Commercial Agencies, Yahya Al-Usaili Company for Import Limited, Gasoline Aman Company for Oil Derivatives Imports, Azzahra Establishment for Commerce and Agencies, Yemen Elaph Petroleum Derivatives Import, Abbot Trading Co., Ltd., Ali Ahmed Daghsan Talea, and Daghsan Ahmed Daghsan are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Ansarallah. Abdullah Ahsan Abdullah Dabbash is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for owning or controlling, directly or indirectly, Yemen Elaph Petroleum Derivatives Import. HOUTHI-ALIGNED MANAGER OF HUDAYDAH AND AL-SALIF PORTS Zaid Al-Washli (Al-Washli) is the head of the Houthi-aligned port management company, which controls operations at key Houthi-controlled ports, including Hudaydah and Al-Salif. In his role, Al-Washli also coordinates weapons procurement and smuggling efforts on behalf of the Houthis, including of key dual-use components for use in UAV production. Al-Washli collaborates with Houthi procurement operatives to fill Houthi materiel needs and coordinates with Houthi political operatives to advance the Houthis' position in negotiations with shipping companies. Zaid Al-Washli is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for being owned, controlled, or directed by, or for having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Ansarallah. CONTINUED DELIVERY OFREFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TO HOUTHI-CONTROLLED PORTS OnApril 28, 2025, OFAC identified three vessels and designated their owners pursuant to E.O.13224, as amended, for involvement in the discharge of refined petroleum products at Houthi-controlled ports after the expiration of Counter TerrorismGeneral License (GL) 25A. GL 25A wound down a previous authorization enabling the offloading of refined petroleum products in Yemen involving the Houthis through April 4, 2025. The vessels targeted today continued to supportthe Houthis through the discharge of refined petroleum products at Houthi-controlled ports, including Ras Isa, after the expiration of GL 25A. Best Way Tanker Corp. (Best Way) and Ocean Voyage LLC(Ocean Voyage) facilitated the delivery of gasoline to the Houthi-controlled port of Ras Isa via the vessel Valenteafter the expiration of OFAC's GL 25A. The Valente discharged over 60,000 metric tons of gasoline and departed Ras Isa port on May 17, 2025, over a month after the expiration of GL 25A. Atlantis M. Shipping Co facilitated the delivery of refined petroleum products into Ras Isa via the Atlantis MZ after the expiration of GL of mid-June 2025, the Atlantis MZ had discharged almost 60,000 metric tons of gasoline at Ras Isa port in Yemen, almost two months after the expiration of GL 25A. The Sarah was identified as blocked property in April 2025 pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, under its former name, Tulip BZ, for facilitating the delivery of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) to Ras Isa after the expiration of GL 25A, and in June 2025 was again at berth in Ras Isa to discharge LPG. Best Way Tanker Corp., Ocean Voyage LLC, and Atlantis M. Shipping Co are being designated pursuant to E.O.13224, as amended, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Ansarallah. The Valente is being identified as property in which Best Way Tanker Corp. has an interest pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended. The Atlantis MZ is being identified as property in which Atlantis M. Shipping Co has an interest pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended. The SDN List entry for Tulip BZ is being updated to reflect the vessel's current name, Sarah.
Sydney Morning Herald
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
How the innocuous pager set in motion a potentially catastrophic war
Future historians might one day marvel at how a device as innocuous as a pager came to play such a significant role in the destabilisation of the Middle East, and the threat of a potentially catastrophic war radiating across the region. On September 17, Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, issued an electronic instruction to thousands of pagers it had fed into the hands of unwitting members of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia that had embedded itself in Lebanon, posing a constant threat to Israel from its northern border. Two waves of explosions followed, as tiny and powerful charges in the devices detonated. Alongside the civilians killed and injured, the attack removed 1500 Hezbollah fighters from combat, many of them maimed or blinded, Reuters later reported, citing a Hezbollah source. But more significantly than that, its terrible success emboldened Israel. Israeli war planners had for years been concerned that an all-out confrontation with the powerful militia could provoke a devastating barrage of missiles. Hezbollah was known to have stockpiled thousands of the weapons, supplied by Iran. But with the militia in disarray, its communications obliterated, the threat was diminished. The scene for the current crisis was set. Days after what became known as Operation Grim Beeper, Israeli warplanes dropped bunker-buster bombs on what it described as Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut during a leadership meeting, killing 195 people, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Among them was Hassan Nasrallah, the Shiite cleric who had led the group since 1992. This signalled the grim dynamics of the region's geopolitics had shifted. For decades, Iran has advocated for the destruction of Israel, and for decades it propped up proxies to prosecute its conflict, channelling funds not only to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza. Israel and Iran fought by proxy in Yemen, where Iran supported the Houthis, and in the Syrian civil war, where Iran backed the Assad regime. But in recent years, Iran's network of proxies has been battered, leaving it temptingly vulnerable. Israel has largely annihilated Hamas in the vicious war in Gaza unleashed by the group's October 7 terrorist attacks in 2023. The Assad regime in Syria fell a year later. The Houthis have been diminished by an international bombing campaign against them, led by the US in response to that group's attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. All the while Israel has been building its ties with Arab states opposed to Iran's regional ambitions under the so-called Abraham Accords. The nuclear deal In July 2015, after two years of negotiations, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN security council, plus Germany and the EU, signed what was formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and informally as the Iran nuclear deal. Under the deal, Iran would agree to restrictions on its development of nuclear technologies and uranium enrichment program – and to international inspections of its nuclear facilities – in return for relief from crippling sanctions. Then-US president Barack Obama considered the deal to be a crowning achievement of his administration, but it was bitterly opposed Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the powerful Israel lobby in the US, which had become increasingly aligned with the US political right. 'It blocks every possible pathway Iran could use to build a nuclear bomb while ensuring – through a comprehensive, intrusive and unprecedented verification and transparency regime – that Iran's nuclear program remains exclusively peaceful moving forward,' the Obama White House said at the time. In his campaign against the deal, Netanyahu visited the US Capitol without a formal invitation from Obama, telling Congress that the deal would 'not prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, it would all but guarantee Iran gets nuclear weapons – lots of them'. The deal's opponents believed that it facilitated the Iranian pretence that its nuclear program was civilian in intent, and noted that its sunset clauses would allow Iran to resume various parts of its nuclear program within 10 to 16 years. Either way, when Donald Trump was inaugurated in 2017, he set about unravelling the Obama legacy. The Iran deal was one of his key targets. He dumped it 2018, describing it as a 'horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made'. It was at this point, says Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern studies at the Australian National University, that the current crisis became inevitable. The deal contained a 'snap back' clause, nullifying the deal should one side break its terms. At the time, the UN's watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said there was no evidence that Iran was in contravention of the deal. But with the US out, Iran again ramped up its nuclear program. Israel, having diminished Iran's proxies around the region, prepared for strikes on Iran, which had always been Netanyahu's key target. In October last year, Iran lobbed a volley of missiles into Israel, which responded with a wave of airstrikes later that month. More than 100 Israeli aircraft attacked, targeting military sites including missile production facilities, a drone factory, and most notably, destroying much of Iran's Russian-supplied air defence system. All Israeli aircraft returned safely to their bases. Earlier this month, on June 11, the US pulled personnel out of the Middle East, which Trump said, 'could be a dangerous place'. The following day, the IAEA board declared Iran was in breach of its obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. On June 13, the Israel Defence Forces issued a statement saying it had intelligence that Iran was nearing 'the point of no return' in its race towards a nuclear weapon. 'The regime is producing thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, alongside decentralised and fortified enrichment compounds, in underground, fortified sites. This program has accelerated significantly in recent months, bringing the regime significantly closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon. 'The Iranian regime has been working for decades to obtain a nuclear weapon. The world has attempted every possible diplomatic path to stop it, but the regime has refused to stop. The State of Israel has been left with no choice.' First strikes Israel's first strikes hit Iran's top military leadership and nuclear facilities on June 12, with Iranian media confirming the attacks killed Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major General Hossein Salami, Khatam-al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Commander Gholam Ali Rashid, nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran Fereydoon Abbasi, and physicist and president of the Islamic Azad University Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a non-partisan US think tank. Since then, Israel has continued its attacks, targeting key personnel as well as dozens of military and nuclear sites. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel. Though hundreds of its missiles have been intercepted and destroyed, many have penetrated the nation's Iron Dome air defence system. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, said the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Israel has said at least 24 Israeli civilians have died in Iranian missile attacks. Reuters could not independently verify the death toll from either side. A key site Israel has been unable to destroy is the Fordow uranium enrichment facility buried deep beneath a mountain 30 kilometres north of the city of Quom, and this brings us back to the role of the US. So heavily hardened is Fordow that Israel lacks the capacity to destroy it, and most analyses of the facility suggest that only the US has the technology to do so. Multiple strikes on the facility by US B2 bombers carrying so-called bunker-buster bombs – 13.6 tonne 'Massive Ordnance Penetrators' – would be required, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The madman theory To the extent that Donald Trump has a foreign policy doctrine, he might best be described as an adherent to the madman theory advanced by president Richard Nixon, who believed that if he fostered a reputation for being irrational and volatile, threats that might otherwise be viewed as untenable might carry more weight. Trump is leaning in to Nixon's lessons. When asked by The Wall Street Journal last year if he would use military force to respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Trump said he wouldn't have to because Chinese leader Xi Jinping 'respects me and he knows I'm f---ing crazy'. Trump's response to the current conflict has been, at best, unpredictable. In April, he recommenced negotiations with Iran, demanding it agree to end all uranium enrichment and destroy its stockpile of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at a 60 per cent purity level. Iran refused, while Israel opposed the talks being held at all. According to Saikal of the ANU, the talks failed because the US kept raising the bar. In keeping with the isolationist views of his MAGA movement, Trump spent the early months of his second term seeking to restrain Netanyahu, reversing course after his abrupt departure from the G7 talks earlier this week. Discussing engaging in strikes on Iran, he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday, 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do'. On social media that day, he declared, 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now … Our patience is wearing thin.' Three minutes later, he posted, 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' On Thursday, Trump announced he would give himself two weeks to decide. 'That could be cover for a decision to strike, immediately,' James G. Stavridis, a retired Navy admiral and the former supreme US commander in Europe, said on CNN. 'Maybe this is a very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency.' Loading Saikal believes Trump is likely to deploy a US bomber to hit Fordow, though he bases this on his years of analysis of the region rather than any specific information. He fears the implications. Even with its weakened network of proxies, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply travels. He notes that even in its weakened state, Iran maintains close ties with China and Russia. And while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains an unpopular autocrat, leading a nation weakened by years of sanctions, the antibody response of an outside attack could firm his base, Saikal believes. So far, analysts have been surprised by how quickly Israel was able to dominate Iranian skies, suggesting that not only did earlier strikes weaken Iran's defence, but that the regime has been white-anted by corruption and patronage. As sanctions crippled civilian life in Iran over recent years, members of the Revolutionary Guard (which was founded after the revolution to defend the Islamic Republic from internal and external threats) profited from blackmarket oil sales and the development of monopolies over consumer goods, says Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert. The Australian specialist in Middle Eastern political science, now at Macquarie University, was imprisoned by the regime in an act of hostage diplomacy in 2018. 'I was arrested by the intelligence branch of the IRGC, and I spent a lot of time, unfortunately, talking to them and getting to know them over several years. And clearly, many of them are incompetent. They're in their roles because of ideological affinity, and who their family members are, not because of competence or expertise.' It may well be that the US hopes to eradicate Iran's nuclear program while allowing the regime to survive, but Netanyahu appears to determined to see it fall. Asked on Friday morning if he considered Khamenei a 'dead man', Netanyahu ducked the question. Loading 'Every option remains open, though I would rather not discuss such matters publicly and allow our actions to communicate our intentions,' he said. Moore-Gilbert believes the Revolutionary Guard, rather than some unnamed progressive movement, is the likely successor should the regime be toppled. No alternative exists. Should that happen, Israel might not like what emerges. 'It is a hardline fundamentalist Islamist organisation with a kind of worldview that believes in exporting the ideology of the Iranian Revolution, particularly to other parts of the Shia Islamic world, but more broadly as well. 'It's virulently antisemitic and anti-American, anti-Western. It is conspiratorial and paranoid.' Saikal believes that whatever form of Iranian leadership emerges from the current crisis will be even more determined to secure nuclear weapons. It will, after all, have seen what happens without them.
The Age
3 hours ago
- Politics
- The Age
How the innocuous pager set in motion a potentially catastrophic war
Future historians might one day marvel at how a device as innocuous as a pager came to play such a significant role in the destabilisation of the Middle East, and the threat of a potentially catastrophic war radiating across the region. On September 17, Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, issued an electronic instruction to thousands of pagers it had fed into the hands of unwitting members of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia that had embedded itself in Lebanon, posing a constant threat to Israel from its northern border. Two waves of explosions followed, as tiny and powerful charges in the devices detonated. Alongside the civilians killed and injured, the attack removed 1500 Hezbollah fighters from combat, many of them maimed or blinded, Reuters later reported, citing a Hezbollah source. But more significantly than that, its terrible success emboldened Israel. Israeli war planners had for years been concerned that an all-out confrontation with the powerful militia could provoke a devastating barrage of missiles. Hezbollah was known to have stockpiled thousands of the weapons, supplied by Iran. But with the militia in disarray, its communications obliterated, the threat was diminished. The scene for the current crisis was set. Days after what became known as Operation Grim Beeper, Israeli warplanes dropped bunker-buster bombs on what it described as Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut during a leadership meeting, killing 195 people, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Among them was Hassan Nasrallah, the Shiite cleric who had led the group since 1992. This signalled the grim dynamics of the region's geopolitics had shifted. For decades, Iran has advocated for the destruction of Israel, and for decades it propped up proxies to prosecute its conflict, channelling funds not only to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza. Israel and Iran fought by proxy in Yemen, where Iran supported the Houthis, and in the Syrian civil war, where Iran backed the Assad regime. But in recent years, Iran's network of proxies has been battered, leaving it temptingly vulnerable. Israel has largely annihilated Hamas in the vicious war in Gaza unleashed by the group's October 7 terrorist attacks in 2023. The Assad regime in Syria fell a year later. The Houthis have been diminished by an international bombing campaign against them, led by the US in response to that group's attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. All the while Israel has been building its ties with Arab states opposed to Iran's regional ambitions under the so-called Abraham Accords. The nuclear deal In July 2015, after two years of negotiations, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN security council, plus Germany and the EU, signed what was formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and informally as the Iran nuclear deal. Under the deal, Iran would agree to restrictions on its development of nuclear technologies and uranium enrichment program – and to international inspections of its nuclear facilities – in return for relief from crippling sanctions. Then-US president Barack Obama considered the deal to be a crowning achievement of his administration, but it was bitterly opposed Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the powerful Israel lobby in the US, which had become increasingly aligned with the US political right. 'It blocks every possible pathway Iran could use to build a nuclear bomb while ensuring – through a comprehensive, intrusive and unprecedented verification and transparency regime – that Iran's nuclear program remains exclusively peaceful moving forward,' the Obama White House said at the time. In his campaign against the deal, Netanyahu visited the US Capitol without a formal invitation from Obama, telling Congress that the deal would 'not prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, it would all but guarantee Iran gets nuclear weapons – lots of them'. The deal's opponents believed that it facilitated the Iranian pretence that its nuclear program was civilian in intent, and noted that its sunset clauses would allow Iran to resume various parts of its nuclear program within 10 to 16 years. Either way, when Donald Trump was inaugurated in 2017, he set about unravelling the Obama legacy. The Iran deal was one of his key targets. He dumped it 2018, describing it as a 'horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made'. It was at this point, says Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern studies at the Australian National University, that the current crisis became inevitable. The deal contained a 'snap back' clause, nullifying the deal should one side break its terms. At the time, the UN's watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said there was no evidence that Iran was in contravention of the deal. But with the US out, Iran again ramped up its nuclear program. Israel, having diminished Iran's proxies around the region, prepared for strikes on Iran, which had always been Netanyahu's key target. In October last year, Iran lobbed a volley of missiles into Israel, which responded with a wave of airstrikes later that month. More than 100 Israeli aircraft attacked, targeting military sites including missile production facilities, a drone factory, and most notably, destroying much of Iran's Russian-supplied air defence system. All Israeli aircraft returned safely to their bases. Earlier this month, on June 11, the US pulled personnel out of the Middle East, which Trump said, 'could be a dangerous place'. The following day, the IAEA board declared Iran was in breach of its obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. On June 13, the Israel Defence Forces issued a statement saying it had intelligence that Iran was nearing 'the point of no return' in its race towards a nuclear weapon. 'The regime is producing thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, alongside decentralised and fortified enrichment compounds, in underground, fortified sites. This program has accelerated significantly in recent months, bringing the regime significantly closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon. 'The Iranian regime has been working for decades to obtain a nuclear weapon. The world has attempted every possible diplomatic path to stop it, but the regime has refused to stop. The State of Israel has been left with no choice.' First strikes Israel's first strikes hit Iran's top military leadership and nuclear facilities on June 12, with Iranian media confirming the attacks killed Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major General Hossein Salami, Khatam-al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Commander Gholam Ali Rashid, nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran Fereydoon Abbasi, and physicist and president of the Islamic Azad University Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a non-partisan US think tank. Since then, Israel has continued its attacks, targeting key personnel as well as dozens of military and nuclear sites. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel. Though hundreds of its missiles have been intercepted and destroyed, many have penetrated the nation's Iron Dome air defence system. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, said the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Israel has said at least 24 Israeli civilians have died in Iranian missile attacks. Reuters could not independently verify the death toll from either side. A key site Israel has been unable to destroy is the Fordow uranium enrichment facility buried deep beneath a mountain 30 kilometres north of the city of Quom, and this brings us back to the role of the US. So heavily hardened is Fordow that Israel lacks the capacity to destroy it, and most analyses of the facility suggest that only the US has the technology to do so. Multiple strikes on the facility by US B2 bombers carrying so-called bunker-buster bombs – 13.6 tonne 'Massive Ordnance Penetrators' – would be required, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The madman theory To the extent that Donald Trump has a foreign policy doctrine, he might best be described as an adherent to the madman theory advanced by president Richard Nixon, who believed that if he fostered a reputation for being irrational and volatile, threats that might otherwise be viewed as untenable might carry more weight. Trump is leaning in to Nixon's lessons. When asked by The Wall Street Journal last year if he would use military force to respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Trump said he wouldn't have to because Chinese leader Xi Jinping 'respects me and he knows I'm f---ing crazy'. Trump's response to the current conflict has been, at best, unpredictable. In April, he recommenced negotiations with Iran, demanding it agree to end all uranium enrichment and destroy its stockpile of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at a 60 per cent purity level. Iran refused, while Israel opposed the talks being held at all. According to Saikal of the ANU, the talks failed because the US kept raising the bar. In keeping with the isolationist views of his MAGA movement, Trump spent the early months of his second term seeking to restrain Netanyahu, reversing course after his abrupt departure from the G7 talks earlier this week. Discussing engaging in strikes on Iran, he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday, 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do'. On social media that day, he declared, 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now … Our patience is wearing thin.' Three minutes later, he posted, 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' On Thursday, Trump announced he would give himself two weeks to decide. 'That could be cover for a decision to strike, immediately,' James G. Stavridis, a retired Navy admiral and the former supreme US commander in Europe, said on CNN. 'Maybe this is a very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency.' Loading Saikal believes Trump is likely to deploy a US bomber to hit Fordow, though he bases this on his years of analysis of the region rather than any specific information. He fears the implications. Even with its weakened network of proxies, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply travels. He notes that even in its weakened state, Iran maintains close ties with China and Russia. And while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains an unpopular autocrat, leading a nation weakened by years of sanctions, the antibody response of an outside attack could firm his base, Saikal believes. So far, analysts have been surprised by how quickly Israel was able to dominate Iranian skies, suggesting that not only did earlier strikes weaken Iran's defence, but that the regime has been white-anted by corruption and patronage. As sanctions crippled civilian life in Iran over recent years, members of the Revolutionary Guard (which was founded after the revolution to defend the Islamic Republic from internal and external threats) profited from blackmarket oil sales and the development of monopolies over consumer goods, says Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert. The Australian specialist in Middle Eastern political science, now at Macquarie University, was imprisoned by the regime in an act of hostage diplomacy in 2018. 'I was arrested by the intelligence branch of the IRGC, and I spent a lot of time, unfortunately, talking to them and getting to know them over several years. And clearly, many of them are incompetent. They're in their roles because of ideological affinity, and who their family members are, not because of competence or expertise.' It may well be that the US hopes to eradicate Iran's nuclear program while allowing the regime to survive, but Netanyahu appears to determined to see it fall. Asked on Friday morning if he considered Khamenei a 'dead man', Netanyahu ducked the question. Loading 'Every option remains open, though I would rather not discuss such matters publicly and allow our actions to communicate our intentions,' he said. Moore-Gilbert believes the Revolutionary Guard, rather than some unnamed progressive movement, is the likely successor should the regime be toppled. No alternative exists. Should that happen, Israel might not like what emerges. 'It is a hardline fundamentalist Islamist organisation with a kind of worldview that believes in exporting the ideology of the Iranian Revolution, particularly to other parts of the Shia Islamic world, but more broadly as well. 'It's virulently antisemitic and anti-American, anti-Western. It is conspiratorial and paranoid.' Saikal believes that whatever form of Iranian leadership emerges from the current crisis will be even more determined to secure nuclear weapons. It will, after all, have seen what happens without them.
