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Time of India
an hour ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Iran Israel War: Who will be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor if he dies? Here's how the next supreme leader of Iran will be chosen and what is Assembly of Experts
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has named three clerics as potential successors, according to a report citing Iranian officials. The decision follows rising global tensions and threats to Khamenei's life. The Assembly of Experts would choose the next leader if he dies. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Who will be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's Successor? Efforts for Smooth Transition Is Khamenei a Target? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Iran Prepares for Multiple Outcomes FAQs Amid rising tension and increased threats to its leadership, Iran has started preparing for a possible leadership transition. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has named three clerics as potential successors, a The New York Times report said. This move comes during global discussions about his safety and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly selected three senior clerics as possible successors. This information comes from three Iranian officials who spoke with The New York Times. These clerics would be considered in case Khamenei dies. Iran's constitution gives the Assembly of Experts the authority to choose the next supreme leader. This body has 88 clerical members and has only used this process once since 1979. That happened in 1989 when Khamenei became the supreme leader after Ayatollah Khomeini's officials said Khamenei wants a fast and orderly transition if he dies. He has taken steps to make sure this happens without confusion. Iranian leaders are working quietly to keep the process ready. This comes at a time when foreign threats and internal pressure are increasing. The leadership does not want chaos during a potential power week, US President Donald Trump made comments about Khamenei. Trump posted on Truth Social that Khamenei is an 'easy target' and said the US knows where he is. He said there are no current plans to kill him but noted that the option exists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also commented. He suggested that targeting Khamenei might not raise tensions but instead stop the ongoing conflict. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz went further. He said Khamenei should not 'continue to exist,' following an Iranian missile strike that hit a hospital in to the officials, Iranian leaders are planning for different outcomes. They are considering what may happen if the war spreads. Israeli strikes have hit many parts of Iran's command structure. Despite this, Iran's leadership chain is still working. Preparations are being made to handle various situations if foreign intervention increases or if further strikes take Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics, will choose the next Supreme Leader if Khamenei said Khamenei is an easy target but stated the US has no plan to kill him right now.
Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Sheltering in a bunker, Iran's supreme leader names potential successors
Wary of assassination, Iran's supreme leader mostly speaks with his commanders through a trusted aide now, suspending electronic communications to make it harder to find him, three Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans say. Ensconced in a bunker, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has picked an array of replacements down his chain of miliary command in case more of his valued lieutenants are killed. And in a remarkable move, the officials add, Ayatollah Khamenei has even named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him should he be killed, as well — perhaps the most telling illustration of the precarious moment he and his three-decade rule are facing. Ayatollah Khamenei has taken an extraordinary series of steps to preserve the Islamic Republic ever since Israel launched a series of surprise attacks last Friday. Though only a week old, the Israeli strikes are the biggest military assault on Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s, and the effect on the nation's capital, Tehran, has been particularly fierce. In only a few days, the Israeli attacks have been more intense and have caused more damage in Tehran than Saddam Hussein did in his entire eight-year war against Iran. Iran appears to have overcome its initial shock, reorganizing enough to launch daily counterstrikes of its own on Israel, hitting a hospital, the Haifa oil refinery, religious buildings and homes. Iran's top officials are also quietly making preparations for a wide range of outcomes as the war intensifies and as President Trump considers whether to enter the fight, according to the Iranian officials, who insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the ayatollah's plans. Peering inside Iran's closely guarded leadership can be difficult, but its chain of command still seems to be functioning, despite being hit hard, and there are no obvious signs of dissent in the political ranks, according to the officials and to diplomats in Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, is aware tateither Israel or the United States could try to assassinate him, an end he would view as martyrdom, the officials said. Given the possibility, the ayatollah has made the unusual decision to instruct his nation's Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for appointing the supreme leader, to choose his successor swiftly from the three names he has provided. Normally, the process of appointing a new supreme leader could take months, with clerics picking and choosing from their own lists of names. But with the nation now at war, the officials said, the ayatollah wants to ensure a quick, orderly transition and to preserve his legacy. 'The top priority is the preservation of the state,' said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University. 'It is all calculative and pragmatic.' Succession has long been an exceedingly delicate and thorny topic, seldom discussed publicly beyond speculations and rumors in political and religious circles. The supreme leader has enormous powers: He is the commander in chief of the Iran Armed Forces, as well as the head of the judiciary, the legislature and the executive branch. He is also a Vali Faqih, meaning the most senior guardian of the Shiite faith. Ayatollah Khamenei's son Mojtaba, also a cleric and close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who was rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the candidates, the officials said. Iran's former conservative president, Ibrahim Raisi, was also considered a front-runner before he was killed in a helicopter crash in 2024. Since the war started, Ayatollah Khamenei has delivered to the public two recorded video messages, against a backdrop of brown curtains and next to the Iranian flag. 'The people of Iran will stand against a forced war,' he said, vowing not to surrender. In normal times, Ayatollah Khamenei lives and works in a highly secure compound in central Tehran called the 'beit rahbari' — or leader's house — and he seldom leaves the premises, except for special occasions like delivering a sermon. Senior officials and military commanders come to him for weekly meetings, and speeches for the public are staged from the compound. His retreat to a bunker shows how furiously Tehran has been struck in a war with Israel that Iranian officials say is unfolding on two fronts. One is being waged from the air, with Israeli airstrikes on military bases, nuclear facilities, critical energy infrastructure, commanders and nuclear scientists in their apartment buildings in tightly packed residential neighborhoods. Some of Iran's top commanders were summarily wiped out. Hundreds of people have also been killed and thousands of others injured, with civilians slain across Iran, human rights groups inside and outside the country say. But Iranian officials say that they are fighting on a second front, as well, with covert Israeli operatives and collaborators scattered on the ground across Iran's vast terrain, launching drones at critical energy and military structures. The fear of Israeli infiltration among the top ranks of Iran's security and intelligence apparatus has rattled the Iranian power structure, even Ayatollah Khamenei, officials say. 'It is clear that we had a massive security and intelligence breach; there is no denying this,' said Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran's speaker of Parliament, Gen. Mohammad Ghalibaf, in an audio recording analyzing the war. 'Our senior commanders were all assassinated within one hour.' Iran's 'biggest failure was not discovering' the months of planning Israeli operatives had conducted to bring missiles and drone parts into the country to prepare for the attack, he added. The country's leadership has been preoccupied with three central concerns, officials say: an assassination attempt against Ayatollah Khamenei; the United States' entering the war; and more debilitating attacks against Iran's critical infrastructure, like power plants, oil and gas refineries and dams. Should the United States join the fight, the stakes would multiply significantly. Israel says that it wants to destroy Iran's nuclear program, but experts say that only the United States has the bomber — and the enormous 30,000-pound bomb — that might be capable of penetrating the mountain where Iran has built its most critical nuclear enrichment facilities, Fordo. Iran has threatened to retaliate by attacking American targets in the region, but that would only risk a wider, and possibly more devastating, conflict for Iran and its adversaries. The fear of assassination and infiltration within Iran's ranks is so widespread that the Ministry of Intelligence announced a series of security protocols, telling officials to stop using cellphones or any electronic devices to communicate. It has also ordered all senior government officials and military commanders to remain below ground, according to two Iranian officials. Almost every day, the Ministry of Intelligence or the Armed Forces issue directives for the public to report suspicious individuals and vehicle movements, and to refrain from taking photographs and videos of attacks on sensitive sites. The country has also been in a communication blackout with the outside world. The internet has been nearly shut down, and incoming international calls have been blocked. The Ministry of Telecommunications said in a statement that these measures were to find enemy operatives on the ground and to disable their ability to launch attacks. 'The security apparatus has concluded that, in this critical time, the internet is being abused to harm the lives and livelihoods of civilians,' said Ali Ahmadinia, the communications director for President Masoud Pezeshkian. 'We are safeguarding the security of our country by shutting down the internet.' On Friday, the Supreme National Security Council took it a step further, announcing that anyone working with the enemy must turn themselves into the authorities by the end of the day on Sunday, hand over their military equipment and 'return to the arms of the people.' It warned that anyone discovered to be working with the enemy after Sunday would face execution. Tehran has largely emptied out after orders by Israel to evacuate several highly populated districts. Videos of the city show highways and desolate streets that are typically clogged with bumper-to-bumper traffic. In interviews, residents of Tehran who remained in the city said security forces had set up checkpoints on every highway, on smaller roads and at entry points in and out of the city to conduct ad hoc searches. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a reformist politician and a former vice president, said in a telephone interview from Tehran that Israel had miscalculated Iranians' reaction to the war. Mr. Abtahi said that the deep political factions that are typically in sharp disagreement with one another had rallied behind the supreme leader and focused the country on defending itself from an external threat. The war has 'softened the divisions we had, both among each other and with the general public,' Mr. Abtahi said. Israel's attacks have set off a resurgence of nationalism among many Iranians, inside and outside the country, including many critical of the government. That sense of common cause has emerged in a torrent of social media posts and statements by prominent human rights and political activists, physicians, national athletes, artists and celebrities. 'Like family, we may not always agree but Iran's soil is our red line,' wrote Saeid Ezzatollahi, a player with Iran's national soccer squad, Team Melli, on social media. Hotels, guesthouses and wedding halls have opened their doors free of charge to shelter displaced people fleeing Tehran, according to Iranian news media and videos on social media. Psychologists are offering free virtual therapy sessions in posts on their social media pages. Supermarkets are giving discounts, and at bakeries, customers are limiting their own purchases of fresh bread to one loaf so that everyone standing in line can have bread, according to videos shared on social media. Volunteers are offering services, like running errands to checking on disabled and older residents. 'We are seeing a beautiful unity among our people,' said Reza, 42, a businessman, in a telephone interview near the Caspian Sea, where he is taking shelter with his family. Using only one name to avoid scrutiny by the government, he added: 'It's hard to explain the mood. We are scared, but we are also giving each other solidarity, love and kindness. We are in it together. This is an attack on our country, on Iran.' Narges Mohammadi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and the country's most prominent human rights activist, has spent decades in and out jail, pushing for democratic change in Iran. But even she warned against the attacks on her country, telling the BBC this past week that 'Democracy cannot come through violence and war.'
Ammon
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Ammon
New York Times: Khamenei nominates three names to succeed him
Ammon News - New York Times reported on Saturday that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has named three senior clerics as potential successors in the event of his assassination. Khamenei, fearing assassination, often speaks with his commanders through a trusted aide now, suspending electronic communications to make it harder to find him, three Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans say. Iran's top officials are also quietly making preparations for a wide range of outcomes as the war intensifies and as President Trump considers whether to enter the fight, according to the Iranian officials, who insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the ayatollah's plans. Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, is aware that either Israel or the United States could try to assassinate him, an end he would view as martyrdom, the officials said. Given the possibility, the ayatollah has made the unusual decision to instruct his nation's Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for appointing the supreme leader, to choose his successor swiftly from the three names he has provided. Normally, the process of appointing a new supreme leader could take months, with clerics picking and choosing from their own lists of names. But with the nation now at war, the officials said, the ayatollah wants to ensure a quick, orderly transition and to preserve his legacy.
DW
a day ago
- Politics
- DW
Iran's complex political and military power structure – DW – 06/20/2025
Iran's political system is famously complicated — mixing elected leaders with theocratic and military power players. Here's your guide to how it all works. Israel's attack on Iran this month marked a dramatic escalation in a long-simmering conflict. But the strikes were aimed at more than just military targets. In a public address, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Iranians to rise up against what he described as a "cruel and oppressive regime." Whether intended as psychological warfare or a genuine appeal for revolt, the message underscored the fact that Iran's leadership is facing precarious moments. Years of sanctions, internal unrest, and now open military confrontation have raised new questions about how the Islamic Republic functions. Power hierarchy in Iran is notoriously complicated. There are unelected councils and offices that wield immense power, but they are assigned or monitored by elected or semi-elected bodies. Here's a guide to the key figures at the top of Iran's political and military hierarchy and how power is exercised in Tehran. Supreme Leader — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Appointed for life in 1989 by the Assembly of Experts The highest authority in Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds direct or indirect power over all matters of state — from foreign policy to domestic politics. He appoints key officials, including the heads of state media and the judiciary, and has representatives in nearly every major organization. Though unelected by the public, Khamenei was appointed by the Assembly of Experts following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution. The Assembly of Experts is an elected body of Islamic clerics tasked with selecting, supervising, and — if necessary — dismissing Iran's Supreme Leader. Article 110 of the Constitution outlines the duties and powers of the Supreme Leader, including the declaration of war and peace, as well as the mobilization of the armed forces. President of Iran — Masoud Pezeshkian Elected July 2024 Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran's snap presidential election in July 2024, following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash two months earlier. He became the Islamic Republic's ninth president, making him the country's second-highest-ranking official after the supreme leader. Pezeshkian, known for his moderate stance, campaigned on promises of limited social reforms, renewed negotiations with the West over Iran's nuclear program, and addressing the public discontent sparked by the 2022 death of Jina Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died in police custody after she was arrested for allegedly wearing her headscarf too loosely. Iranian presidents serve four-year terms and are responsible for managing day-to-day governance and representing the country in international diplomacy. However, power rests with the Supreme Leader, who holds authority over the military, judiciary, and key aspects of foreign policy. Presidents cannot override the Supreme Leader on matters of strategic importance. Reformist leaders like Pezeshkian — and before him, Hassan Rouhani, who brokered the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration — have often faced strong pushback from conservative institutions, including the Guardian Council and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Efforts by Rouhani to ease tensions with the West were significantly set back when the US exited the nuclear agreement in 2018, following a decision by then-President Donald Trump during his first term in office. President Pezeshkian campaigned on promises of international opening and expanded social liberties — but his reform agenda has been stymied Image: Iranian Presidency/AFP The Guardian Council Chairman: Ahmad Jannati, elected July 2024 The Guardian Council is tasked with ensuring that legislation passed by Iran's parliament complies with the constitution and Islamic principles. The 12-member body wields significant power: Six members are Islamic clerics appointed directly by the Supreme Leader, while the remaining six are legal scholars selected by parliament. Beyond its legislative role, the Council also vets candidates for key elected bodies, including the presidency, parliament, and the Assembly of Experts. This gives it considerable influence over who can participate in Iran's tightly controlled electoral system. At 98, Ahmad Jannati symbolizes the enduring conservative establishment in Iran, overseeing the vetting of elections and legislation while reinforcing loyalty to the Supreme Leader's vision Image: Vahid Salemi/AP Photo/picture alliance Ahmad Jannati, a hardline cleric and ally of the Supreme Leader, has chaired the Guardian Council since 1992. Known for his conservative views, Jannati has played a central role in vetting candidates and shaping legislation in line with the Islamic Republic's principles. Expediency Discernment Council Another key institution is the Expediency Discernment Council, a powerful body tasked with mediating disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council, particularly when proposed laws conflict with Islamic law or the constitution. Its members — appointed directly by the Supreme Leader — include senior clerics, military officials, former presidents, and technocrats. Though officially an advisory body, the council often functions as an extension of the Supreme Leader's authority, influencing national policy and ensuring continuity within the political system during internal conflicts or crises. Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander-in-Chief: General Mohammad Pakpour, elected June 2025 Established in the wake of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, the IRGC began as a volunteer militia tasked with protecting the newly established regime. During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, it evolved into a powerful parallel military force. After the conflict, the IRGC expanded its influence by directing major reconstruction efforts, which laid the foundation for its growing presence in Iran's economic and political spheres. The IRGC's military and political power now far surpasses Iran's regular army Image: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/IMAGO Today, analysts estimate the IRGC controls between 20% and 40% of Iran's economy, largely through its engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbiya, and wide-ranging interests in sectors including energy, agriculture, and finance — offering employment and political leverage. Militarily, the IRGC is tasked with defending the regime, both domestically and abroad. Its Basij militia monitors internal dissent, while the elite Quds Force oversees operations across the region. The Guards' intelligence wing rivals official security services and plays a key role in countering perceived domestic and foreign threats. Under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the IRGC's political and security roles have expanded significantly. Following the June 13 Israeli airstrike that killed IRGC commander Hossein Salami and several other top generals, Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour — a veteran of the Iran-Iraq War and longtime head of the IRGC's ground forces — as the organization's new leader. Parliament (Majlis) Speaker: Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, elected May 2020 Iran's parliament, known as the Majlis, or ICA, is a single-chamber legislature of 290 members elected to four-year terms through direct national elections. Since the first parliamentary session in 1980, the composition of the Majlis has changed dramatically. While clerics once held more than half the seats, they made up just 5.5% of lawmakers in 2020. In contrast, members with backgrounds in the IRGC have become increasingly influential, reflecting the growing role of security and military figures in Iranian politics. Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander now leads Iran's parliament. Iran's parliment has grown increasingly dominated by security figures like Ghalibaf Image: Vahid Salemi/dpa/AP/picture alliance The Majlis holds wide-ranging legislative powers, including drafting laws, approving the national budget, and ratifying international agreements. However, its authority is limited by the Guardian Council, which vets all parliamentary candidates and has the power to reject legislation it deems inconsistent with the constitution or Islamic principles. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a hardline conservative, has served as speaker since 2020 and was re-elected to the post in May 2025. A former IRGC general, national police chief, and mayor of Tehran, Qalibaf is seen as one of the most influential figures in Iran's political establishment. Edited by: Rob Mudge
Asia Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Asia Times
Assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader a recipe for chaos
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently refused to rule out the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling it a move that could 'end the conflict' between the two rivals. His statement, made during an interview, signaled that Israel now sees the elimination of Iran's leadership as a legitimate strategic goal. Netanyahu defended recent military operations as efforts to 'defang' Iran and likened Khamenei to a 'modern Hitler,' a comparison that underscores the gravity of the current escalation. Israeli airstrikes have hit critical sites in and around Tehran, including the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters and major components of Iran's nuclear infrastructure at Fordow and Natanz. In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 missiles into Israeli territory, with several striking civilian areas in Tel Aviv, killing at least 82 and injuring more than 300 at the time of writing. Israel's counterattacks have so far killed over 150 individuals in Iran, many of them military personnel stationed at nuclear and strategic installations. This violent spiral is no longer confined to proxy battles or covert operations. It has escalated into a direct confrontation, with Israel now regarding the removal of Iran's top leadership as a viable course of action. These developments have pushed the question of leadership succession from theoretical speculation to an immediate political reality. Iran's political system, though authoritarian and theocratic, has a constitutional succession process. Article 107 assigns the responsibility of appointing the Supreme Leader to the Assembly of Experts, a group of 88 clerics elected from a vetted pool. This secretive body plays a decisive role in shaping Iran's leadership. The last succession in 1989, following Ayatollah Khomeini's death, saw senior clerics appoint Ali Khamenei, then a relatively obscure figure, based on his ideological alignment, institutional backing, and Khomeini's endorsement. Today, the succession landscape is more uncertain. Khamenei, in power for over 35 years, has built a loyal network across the judiciary, military, and clerical ranks. Yet no official successor has been named, and no clear favorite has emerged from the Assembly of Experts. One frequently mentioned figure is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Though not a grand ayatollah, Mojtaba is believed to exert considerable influence behind the scenes, particularly through ties with the IRGC. His potential rise is widely seen as a dynastic move, conflicting with the anti-monarchical ideals of the 1979 Revolution. His religious credentials have drawn criticism within the clerical class, and his name alone has provoked resistance among reformist factions. These succession debates are inseparable from the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Created to protect the Islamic Revolution, the IRGC has transformed into a powerful institution with wide autonomy, often functioning as a state within the state. It commands over 125,000 active-duty personnel and operates its own intelligence and security apparatus. Economically, it controls major sectors through entities like Khatam al-Anbia and a vast network of affiliated foundations. In the event of Khamenei's sudden death or assassination, the IRGC is likely to become the central force in maintaining regime stability. Its influence positions it to shape the succession process in favor of preserving the status quo. In recent years, former IRGC commanders have entered both parliament and the cabinet, extending their reach across all arms of government. What appears as continuity on paper may not hold under the weight of public discontent. Iran is facing its worst economic crisis in over twenty years. Inflation remains above 40%, the rial has sharply devalued and youth unemployment is over 22%. A 2023 IranPoll survey found that more than 70% of Iranians distrust the government's official narratives, and nearly 60% support fundamental political change. The 2022–23 'Woman, Life, Freedom' protests, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, were the largest since the 2009 Green Movement. Though the state quelled them through arrests and executions, the core grievances remain. If a leadership vacuum emerges, these tensions could resurface. Unlike the relatively controlled transition of 1989, today's Iran is more divided, militarized and economically fragile. A successor without legitimacy or the ability to manage internal factions risks pushing the country into instability. Historical precedent exists: the fall of Saddam Hussein led to Iraq's institutional collapse, sectarian violence, and the rise of the Islamic State. While Iran has stronger institutions and a longer tradition of centralized rule, it is not immune. Ethnic minorities such as Kurds, Baluchs, and Azeris are already demanding greater autonomy. A prolonged power crisis could embolden them and fuel violent fragmentation It is also likely that, in the absence of a strong leader, Iran's nuclear program would fall increasingly under the control of hardline military figures. This could result in a much more aggressive posture toward the West, rather than a retreat. In such a scenario, diplomacy would become more difficult, and the potential for regional conflict would grow. Far from ending hostilities, Khamenei's assassination could inflame them beyond Israel's control. To assume that the death of one man will dismantle an entire regime is a mistake that history has repeatedly exposed. Toppling a figure like Khamenei does not guarantee the emergence of a stable successor, let alone a more moderate or cooperative one. It risks, instead, the collapse of an entire state apparatus, a power vacuum that could be filled by militia factions, radicalized clerics, or foreign actors. Such instability would have far-reaching consequences, disrupting global oil supplies, jeopardizing critical regional trade corridors and undermining existing nuclear nonproliferation efforts. If the goal is to eliminate threats, replacing a centralized regime with chaos does the opposite. The Middle East has learned the hard way that toppling leaders is far easier than securing peace in the aftermath. Rishab Rathi is a research assistant at the Centre of Policy Research and Governance (CPRG), leading the Conflict Studies vertical with a special emphasis on South Asia.
