Latest Tony Awards odds: ‘Maybe Happy Ending' and ‘Oh, Mary!' maintain their leads, Best Actress in a Musical tightens

With less than three weeks until the 78th annual Tony Awards, the Gold Derby odds have shown some movement, reflecting momentum shifts in the race based on industry buzz and following the announcement of the winners of the Outer Critics Circle and Drama League Awards. Although there is little to no overlap between these awards bodies and the pool of Tony voters — these prizes are not precursors akin to the Oscars and their industry and guild prizes — they nevertheless contribute to the perceptions of the races that swirl among insiders.
Based on the predictions of more than 700 Gold Derby experts, editors, and users, here is where the top eight races stand. And be sure to scroll to down for a current tally of wins by show in all 26 categories. Our projected winners are denoted in gold.
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1. — 31/20 2. Dead Outlaw — 9/2 3. Death Becomes Her — 9/2 4. Operation Mincemeat — 7/1 5. Buena Vista Social Club — 7/1
Maybe Happy Ending continues to lead the Best Musical field and has maintained steady odds of winning over the past two weeks, but there has been movement amongst its challengers. Dead Outlaw takes the lead over Death Becomes Her for second place, even though the latter earned more overall nominations and has been gaining momentum according to industry chatter. The shift makes sense in our projections, though, as our users predict Dead Outlaw will win the more important prize of Musical Book, while Death Becomes Her is only slated to pick up the trophy for Costume Design. Operation Mincemeat has now pulled up to even odds with Buena Vista Social Club and inched its way forward to fourth place. The former is expected to win one prize for Featured Actor for Jak Malone, while the latter will likely claim four for Featured Actress for Natalie Venetia Belcon, Orchestrations, Choreography, and Sound Design.
1. — 39/20 2. Purpose — 7/2 3. John Proctor Is the Villain — 37/10 4. The Hills of California — 15/2 5. English — 17/2
As with Maybe Happy Ending in Best Musical, frontrunner Oh, Mary! retains a formidable lead over the competition. But should there be an unexpected upset in this top category, our users now believe Purpose has a better chance at winning than John Proctor Is the Villain. Both dramas had healthy showings in nominations, earning six and seven respectively, though John Proctor has support across numerous categories including Best Direction for Danya Taymor, whereas Purpose only gained recognition for five of its performers. The largest factor swaying more predictions toward Purpose is undoubtedly its recent win for the Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Historically speaking, receiving this highest honor in American letters does not necessarily correlate with winning the Tony — the official statistic is less than half — and Oh, Mary! also received a boost to its prospects as it was cited a finalist for the same prize.
1. — 83/50 2. Gypsy — 27/10 3. Floyd Collins — 4/1 4. Pirates! The Penzance Musical — 11/2
This race also remains steady as director Jamie Lloyd's Sunset Boulevard leads over its closest rival Gypsy. The nominations tipped the scales in its favor as Gypsy missed out on a crucial bid for its director George C. Wolfe, though the revival of the classic Stephen Sondheim, Jule Styne, and Arthur Laurents musical could win support amongst some voters who found this bold production of Andrew Lloyd Webber's Sunset Boulevard polarizing. Even so, Sunset further solidified its frontrunner status with a victory for Musical Revival at the Drama League Awards, besting its three Tonys competitors.
1. — 19/10 2. Eureka Day — 49/20 3. Our Town — 4/1 4. Romeo + Juliet — 9/2
David Henry Hwang's Pulitzer finalist Yellow Face has further solidified its lead in this category, though Jonathan Spector's Eureka Day has a very strong contingent of support. With only one nomination apiece, Our Town and Romeo & Juliet, directed by Tony winners Kenny Leon and Sam Gold, respectively, are not predominant factors in this race for a victory.
SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the tricky musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger
1. Audra McDonald, — 11/5 2. Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard — 53/20 3. Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical — 11/2 4. Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her — 13/2 5. Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her — 7/1
Though Gold Derby's ranking of the five nominees in this captivating category has not changed, there have been numerous important developments since the nominations were announced. First, Jasmine Amy Rogers prevailed over three of her fellow Tony nominees in the Lead Performer category at the Outer Critics Circle Awards. Subsequently, Nicole Scherzinger won the Distinguished Performance prize at the Drama League Awards, an honor a performer may only win once in their career. Notably, Audra McDonald was not eligible there as she previously took home the award in 2012 for The Gershwins' Porgy and Bess. Although Scherzinger has more overall users predicting her to win, McDonald leads our odds as more experts and editors favor her victory; McDonald has also started to close the gap in the raw total of user predictions, too, as only some three dozen votes now separate her and Scherzinger.
Watch our video interview with Boop! The Musical's Jasmine Amy Rogers here.
1. Darren Criss, — 10/3 2. Jonathan Groff, Just in Time — 4/1 3. Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins — 5/1 4. Tom Francis, Sunset Boulevard — 11/2 5. Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw — 13/2 6. James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World — 17/2
Maybe Happy Ending's Darren Criss continues to lead this supersized field and might be the Best Musical frontrunner's biggest prize on Tony night. Although they trail significantly, three challengers are starting to separate themselves from the pack. Jonathan Groff, previously third in our predictions, has been gaining momentum and now ranks second for his charismatic and energetic performance as Bobby Darrin, although no performer in the history of the Tonys has won the Best Actor (Musical) category twice in two years. Jeremy Jordan previously ranked second and now falls to third, but maintains a smattering of backers for his harrowing turn as real-life explorer Floyd Collins. Consistent in fourth place but also with a sizable number of predictions is Tom Francis, who has one of the season's standout moments performing the title number from Sunset Boulevard live on camera in the streets of Manhattan eight times a week. Such a splintered field could either produce a shocking upset or mark a clearer path for Criss to prevail.
Read our interview with Sunset Boulevard's Tom Francis here.
1. Sarah Snook, — 8/5 2. LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose — 9/2 3. Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California — 5/1 4. Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain — 11/2 5. Mia Farrow, The Roommate — 17/2
Snook now has the most commanding lead amongst all four of the top acting races in terms of overall vote tallies. But Gold Derby users have given further thought to who might win if the Succession star shockingly does not prevail. While our earlier predictions favored Laura Donnelly, she has been usurped for second place by LaTanya Richardson Jackson. Although Donnelly received rave reviews and had a more predominant role in The Hills of California than Jackson in Purpose, the switch makes sense as Jackson's play runs throughout the Tony voting period, so voters attending Broadway performances now before casting their ballots will have her more front of mind than Donnelly. A performer from a closed production occasionally wins this top honor, such as Deirdre O'Connell in Dana H. in 2022, but the category typically favors actresses from running shows. That may also give Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain an advantage, should that play overperform our expectations with a win for Best Play or Best Direction.
Watch our video interview with John Proctor Is the Villain's Sadie Sink here.
1. Cole Escola, — 3/1 2. Jon Michael Hill, Purpose — 9/2 3. Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face — 9/2 4. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck — 11/2 5. Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 13/2 6. Harry Lennix, Purpose — 8/1
Snook may now have the biggest lead of all acting contenders, but Cole Escola is not far behind for their hilarious performance in Oh, Mary! The rest of the lineup has not shifted, with Jon Michael Hill, Daniel Dae Kim, and George Clooney receiving small pools of votes. Hill could receive a boost to his prospects on Tony night if voters favored Purpose for the Best Play prize, though it looks incredibly unlikely that they would opt to not support Escola in either the top playwriting or performing categories. Kim could similarly garner votes from folks supporting Yellow Face for Best Revival, though it looks more likely that the show's featured performance, Francis Jue, could prevail than its lead. George Clooney recently announced that Good Night, and Good Luck will live-stream its penultimate performance on CNN, though this effort to democratize access to the best-selling Broadway play in history will not likely yield enough votes to overcome Escola's lead.
Read our interview with Stranger Things: The First Shadow's Louis McCartney here.
Buena Vista Social Club — 4 Maybe Happy Ending — 4 Sunset Boulevard — 3 Dead Outlaw — 1 Death Becomes Her — 1 Gypsy — 1 Operation Mincemeat — 1
Oh, Mary! — 5 Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 3 Eureka Day — 1 The Picture of Dorian Gray — 1 Yellow Face — 1
See our official odds for our winner predictions in all 26 categories, updated on May 21. The 2025 Tony Awards will take place on Sunday, June 8.
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Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Two weeks after the 2025 Tonys, we discuss the upcoming Broadway season and forecast likely 2026 Tony contenders. David Buchanan: Last June, you and I offered our earliest predictions for what could contend and even win at the Tonys a whole 12 months in the future! Looking back at our extremely early 2025 predictions, we hit some nails on the head, including the Best Musical Revival and Best Actress in a Musical showdowns between Gypsy and Sunset Boulevard and stars Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger, respectively. For the 2025-26 Broadway season — which has already kicked off with Jean Smart in the solo play Call Me Izzy — it looks like the revivals are once again front and center. We have remountings of musicals Ragtime, Chess, and The Rocky Horror Show forthcoming, as well as plays Art, Waiting for Godot, and Fallen Angels, among others. 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Queen of Versailles is a huge creative swing, and though I didn't see the Boston try-out, word of mouth suggests it needs some judicious tightening of its runtime and of its tone. Based on critics' reviews, it sounds like the show may be more of an awards contender for Chenoweth and composer Stephen Schwartz than for directing, despite the humongous scope and set of the musical, which centers on real-life billionaire Jackie Siegel and her dream to construct the largest private residence in America. The Lost Boys is the bigger question mark in my mind. Vampire musicals have an infamous track record on Broadway — Dance of the Vampires, Elton John's Lestat, to name just two — but the song officially released by the Rescues, who composed the score, is strong, as is Arden's creative team, so this could be a contender, sight unseen. But before we pivot to the play categories, let's stick with Chenoweth and dive into Best Actress in a Musical. 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