Tony Talk: Our extremely early 2026 awards predictions for ‘Ragtime,' ‘Waiting for Godot,' Kristin Chenoweth, and all the buzzy new shows
Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Two weeks after the 2025 Tonys, we discuss the upcoming Broadway season and forecast likely 2026 Tony contenders.
David Buchanan: Last June, you and I offered our earliest predictions for what could contend and even win at the Tonys a whole 12 months in the future! Looking back at our extremely early 2025 predictions, we hit some nails on the head, including the Best Musical Revival and Best Actress in a Musical showdowns between Gypsy and Sunset Boulevard and stars Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger, respectively. For the 2025-26 Broadway season — which has already kicked off with Jean Smart in the solo play Call Me Izzy — it looks like the revivals are once again front and center. We have remountings of musicals Ragtime, Chess, and The Rocky Horror Show forthcoming, as well as plays Art, Waiting for Godot, and Fallen Angels, among others. Do you think we have any potential winners in those lists?
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Sam Eckmann: To your list of musical revivals, I would add Cats: The Jellicle Ball. This reimagining of the classic Andrew Lloyd Webber musical ditches the feline body suits and sets the story in the world of ballroom. The show was a sold-out hit off-Broadway and though a Broadway run isn't official, a cheeky new social media account for the show has been teasing a transfer for months. Should it transfer, it will be an immediate frontrunner in the Best Musical Revival category. That said, Ragtime, Chess, and The Rocky Horror Show (which will be directed by newly minted Tony winner Sam Pinkleton) are rarely seen but beloved musicals. So this category promises to be an epic showdown yet again!
The race for Best Musical is harder to predict since so many new tuners have yet to officially announce their runs. But we do know that director Michael Arden (now a two-time Tony winner thanks to Parade and Maybe Happy Ending) will helm a pair of new musicals: The Queen of Versailles, starring Kristin Chenoweth, and a stage adaptation of The Lost Boys. Do you think Arden could add a third trophy to his mantle next year?
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Buchanan: Next year, either Pinkleton or Arden could join the list of only eight directors in the history of the Tonys to win back-to-back trophies, like Danya Taymor tried to do this year with John Proctor Is the Villain, so that should make for a very exciting race! With his two Tony-winning projects plus Once on This Island and Deaf West's Spring Awakening, I know never to underestimate Arden. Queen of Versailles is a huge creative swing, and though I didn't see the Boston try-out, word of mouth suggests it needs some judicious tightening of its runtime and of its tone. Based on critics' reviews, it sounds like the show may be more of an awards contender for Chenoweth and composer Stephen Schwartz than for directing, despite the humongous scope and set of the musical, which centers on real-life billionaire Jackie Siegel and her dream to construct the largest private residence in America. The Lost Boys is the bigger question mark in my mind. Vampire musicals have an infamous track record on Broadway — Dance of the Vampires, Elton John's Lestat, to name just two — but the song officially released by the Rescues, who composed the score, is strong, as is Arden's creative team, so this could be a contender, sight unseen.
But before we pivot to the play categories, let's stick with Chenoweth and dive into Best Actress in a Musical. Folks have called her performance as Siegel the best of her career, but she'll be potentially contending against Caissie Levy in Ragtime as Mother, a two-time Tony-nominated role for Marin Mazzie and Christiane Noll, plus Lea Michele in Chess as Florence, a Tony-nominated role for Judy Kuhn. Do you think we'll have as cutthroat a Best Actress race in 2026 as we did this year?
SEE Tony Talk: Dissecting those shocking wins for 'Purpose,' Nicole Scherzinger, Darren Criss, and full show analysis
Eckmann: You've already highlighted three formidable contenders who could make the lead actress race just as competitive as this year's. While we don't have a full picture of all the eligible contenders yet, it's hard to imagine a lineup without any of these women. That would mean that Levy and Michele score the first Tony nominations of their career. I believe Levy came close to a nomination with Hair and Frozen, and she is the type of Broadway mainstay that voters are eager to reward once the right part comes along. Michele is still riding high on a renewed sense of goodwill after rescuing the recent revival of Funny Girl, and the score to Chess is perfectly suited to her high belting capabilities. Speaking of Chess, Michele's costars should also find themselves hotly competitive. Most Broadway fans are already familiar with Tony winner Aaron Tveit, but I suspect the über-talented Nicholas Christopher to finally cement himself as a Broadway superstar with this revival. If you're a theater nerd whose never heard him sing before, prepare yourself for your new obsession.
While there are far too many question marks with the musicals at this early stage — I desperately need to know who Pinkleton is going to cast as Frank 'N' Furter in Rocky Horror — we know much more about the plays since the fall is front-loaded with them. I attended Call Me Izzy, the first production of the 2025-26 season, the day before this year's Tony Awards. While the script itself may not be remembered a full year from now in the Best Play race, star Jean Smart is at the height of her powers, delivering a solo performance so devastating that voters will surely be able to remember it next spring. Other contenders for lead actress in a play will surely include whichever mystery actress is cast in Second Stage's revival of Marjorie Prime, which won accolades for star Lois Smith in the off-Broadway run — though at 94, I'm not expecting her to sign up for the Broadway staging. An audition notice has also spoiled that the play Little Bear Ridge is also aiming for Broadway this season. Laurie Metcalf starred in this Samuel D. Hunter play at Steppenwolf Theatre in Chicago. This could be Hunter's first play to transfer to Broadway, and Metcalf is a seemingly guaranteed Tony nominee should she reprise her role. Hunter's The Whale earned Shuler Hensley a Lucille Lortel Award, and the film adaptation scored an Oscar for Brendan Fraser. Perhaps he's written Metcalf a role worthy of Tony No. 3. What plays are you looking forward to next season?
SEE 'Every beat is meticulously crafted': An oral history of the Pulitzer Prize- and Tony-winning play 'Purpose'
Buchanan: It would be so wonderful to have Metcalf back on Broadway after her Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? shuttered prematurely due to COVID in March 2020. Yes, there are a lot of very exciting plays already announced for the season, from Marjorie Prime to fellow Pulitzer finalist Becky Shaw and Tony winner David Lindsay-Abaire's upper-crust satire The Balusters. I'm particularly interested in the U.K. transfers of Oedipus starring the absolutely fabulous Mark Strong and Lesley Manville in a modern, election night retelling of the classic Greek tragedy, as well as the true-story, chilling Punch. The announcement of Pulitzer winner Stephen Adly Guirgis's stage adaptation of Dog Day Afternoon caught me by surprise but seems like a brilliant work to adapt to the stage, especially with its two The Bear stars Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Jon Bernthal.
Speaking of those performers, the Best Actor in a Play race already sounds competitive. We'll soon see Keanu Reeves and Alex Winter in Waiting for Godot, and I'll be especially curious to know what director Jamie Lloyd does with the play. He's been in a musical mode lately with this year's Tony winner Sunset Boulevard and now the London revival of Evita with Rachel Zegler, but I have been most taken with his staging of plays including Betrayal in 2019, and it'll be interesting to see how his minimalism matches this classic drama. Yasmina Reza's ART brings a trio of Tony-winning heavyweights back to Broadway with Bobby Cannavale, Neil Patrick Harris, and James Corden. Sight unseen, I'm already rooting for Strong to take home his first Tony, but I'm excited for surprises this Broadway season, too!
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