The bull case for stocks is growing as economic optimism increases
Wall Street strategists aren't scared of a summer slowdown for stocks despite some indications of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity.
In the past month, several strategists have defended their S&P 500 year-end targets in the range of 6,300 to 6,500, noting that the most dire outcomes from tariffs may no longer be on the table. On Monday, the benchmark index was trading around 6,010, about 2% from the record closing high.
In a note titled "Don't fight it," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson pointed out that a "moderate slowdown in growth" was likely already priced in earlier this year when the average S&P 500 stock fell nearly 30%.
"In our experience, stocks and equity market internals move well ahead of lagging economic data and earnings results," Wilson said.
To be clear, there are certainly signs of softening in economic data. Last week, ADP data showed that the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. Weekly filings for unemployment claims hit their highest level since October 2024. And monthly nonfarm payroll revisions revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than initially thought.
But the slowdown in this data has been widely expected. The equity research team at Goldman Sachs analyzed prior "event driven recessions" such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 1970s interest rate shock. Goldman's team, led by chief US equity strategist David Kostin, found that so-called soft economic data, which encapsulates data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or job additions, does.
That's been playing out over the past month. In May, the Conference Board's future expectations index saw its largest monthly increase since May 2009. But data on Monday showed inflation expectations in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey moved lower in May for the first time this year, perhaps marking that the worst tariff-driven inflation fears might be behind markets too.
Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation
Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data, like monthly jobs reports, continues to move lower.
"S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken."
Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert boosted his S&P 500 target to 6,300 on Monday from a prior forecast of 5,800. Chronert, like other strategists, pointed out that peak tariff uncertainty has likely passed following the pause on duties between the US and China. With that headwind easing, Chronert pointed out that economic growth forecasts are no longer falling either. After tumbling to a recent bottom of 1.35% in early May, consensus is now projecting the US economy to grow at an annualized pace of 1.4% in 2025.
Chronert and other strategists agree that the key risk moving forward would be that economic growth data slows more than consensus is now expecting. But barring that outcome, Chronert likes growth stocks such as Big Tech names amid a market environment that features elevated interest rates and high stock valuations.
"Our growth preference continues for now as the AI theme regains momentum," Chronert wrote.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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