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Yahoo
29 minutes ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Parsons announces $137M ceiling value contract for cyber operations
Parsons (PSN) announced that the company was awarded a $137M ceiling value contract by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency for cyber operations. The single award was issued under the Assessment, Exercise, Modeling and Simulation, and Support indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity multiple award task order contract with a one-year base period of performance and four one-year option periods plus one six-month option period and is new work for the company. Parsons will provide specialized cyber operations capabilities including cyber assessments and subject matter experts supporting cyber operations, development, analysis, and research. Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See the top stocks recommended by analysts >> Read More on PSN: Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Parsons awarded $169.5M contract by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Parsons awarded $94.5M ceiling value task order under ABAD IDIQ contract Parsons Secures New $1.2 Billion Financing Package Parsons management to meet with KeyBanc Parsons price target lowered to $80 from $90 at Goldman Sachs Sign in to access your portfolio
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First Post
31 minutes ago
- Business
- First Post
Israel-Iran war could set oil markets in fire, Goldman Sachs sees $10 per barrel spike
Goldman Sachs recently revised its assessment of geopolitical risk in oil markets, suggesting that Brent crude prices could climb by approximately $10 per barrel due to conflict in West Asia read more The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran has rattled global oil markets, with major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs forecasting a significant spike in oil prices. According to analysts, the uncertainty surrounding regional stability, especially with the potential involvement of the United States, is poised to inject volatility into oil pricing, which had recently settled into relative calm. Geopolitical unrest alters price projections Goldman Sachs recently revised its assessment of geopolitical risk in oil markets, suggesting that Brent crude prices could climb by approximately $10 per barrel due to conflict in West Asia. This would place Brent above the $85 per barrel mark, rising from levels in the mid-$70s, as reported by Irina Slav. The bank noted that if Iranian oil supply were disrupted more severely prices could surge even further, possibly exceeding $90 per barrel. In particular, Goldman highlighted vulnerabilities in oil transport through strategic chokepoints such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, previously targeted by Yemen's Houthi rebels. These flashpoints illustrate the broader risks to oil infrastructure in a highly combustible region. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Threat of US involvement intensifies market jitters Adding to market unease is the potential for the United States to enter the conflict. President Donald Trump has publicly flirted with the idea of US intervention, stating ambiguously, 'I may do it. I may not do it.' Though Trump has acknowledged internal political resistance to renewed military engagement in West Asia citing criticism from Republican figures like Steve Bannon, he also emphasised the threat of a nuclear Iran as a possible justification for action. As a result, traders are adopting a cautious stance. Oil prices initially dipped slightly amid the uncertainty with Brent crude settling at $76.56 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $75.22, awaiting clearer US policy signals. War escalation sends prices climbing Events quickly shifted on the ground. Oil prices surged nearly 3 per cent as of June 19 following Israel's direct strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran's retaliatory missile barrage, which included an attack on an Israeli hospital. Brent crude closed at $78.85 per barrel, its highest since January, while WTI climbed to $77.20. These strikes marked a dramatic escalation, dispelling any illusions of a short-lived skirmish. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Iran's leaders would 'pay the full price,' while Tehran warned against foreign nations—implicitly the US—joining the fray. Rory Johnston, analyst and founder of Commodity Context, said market consensus is tilting toward US participation in the conflict, which would significantly compound the risks to oil infrastructure and supply routes. Strategic chokepoints and oil supply at stake Iran's role as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC places it at the heart of this crisis. With a production output of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, Iran remains a crucial supplier—particularly to China, which absorbs the majority of its 2 million daily barrels of crude exports. More critically, the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow passage bordering southern Iran—serves as the gateway for 18 to 21 million barrels of oil and oil products each day. RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft emphasised that this waterway could become a primary target if Iran perceives an existential threat. She warned that attacks on tankers and energy installations would likely follow any US military involvement. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD JP Morgan went further, positing a worst-case scenario in which conflict spreads across the broader region and leads to the closure of the Strait. Under such circumstances, oil prices could spike to between $120 and $130 per barrel. Risk premiums and market sentiment Goldman Sachs reiterated its position that a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel is now reasonable, considering the lower availability of Iranian oil and potential for wider supply disruption. Even in the event of a de-escalation, it believes that Brent prices will not return to the low $60s seen in the recent past. Similarly, Barclays warned that if half of Iran's oil exports were halted, Brent could hit $85 per barrel. A broader war could push prices past the $100 threshold. Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn noted that the market had been lulled into a 'complacency' that has now been shattered. 'The market has been underplaying geopolitical risk,' he said, arguing that this latest flare-up will keep prices elevated as long as uncertainty remains. Temporary or sustained price hike? Despite the price spike, some observers maintain that any surge will likely be short-lived. DBRS Morningstar, in a note released Thursday, cautioned that higher oil prices might hurt the global economy by intensifying tariff-related pressures and suppressing demand. In their view, once the conflict recedes, the war premium would deflate and oil prices could cycle lower. Nonetheless, the potential for prolonged instability keeps the market on alert. With no clear exit strategy from either Israel or Iran, and Washington's decision on intervention still pending, investors are bracing for further upheaval. Opec+ response and the global oil balance In response to the emerging tensions, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak advised the Opec+ alliance not to overreact. Speaking at an economic forum in St Petersburg, Novak recommended that oil producers stick to current plans to increase supply in light of rising summer demand. His comments sought to reassure markets and prevent price volatility from spiralling further. Yet, whether Opec+ output increases will be enough to stabilise prices amid the shockwaves of a regional war remains to be seen. Market dynamics are now driven more by geopolitical risk than traditional supply and demand fundamentals. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A market on the edge The Israel-Iran conflict represents a potential inflection point for global energy markets. Analysts from Goldman Sachs to JP Morgan are now factoring in a war risk premium, with oil prices already trending upward and possibly heading for triple digits if the situation worsens. The spectre of US military involvement could dramatically shift the balance, not only disrupting Iranian exports but also imperiling vital shipping routes. While some believe any price surge would be short-lived, the combination of strategic vulnerability and political unpredictability suggests that volatility will persist for the foreseeable future. Whether oil prices stabilise or soar above $100 per barrel may ultimately depend not just on battlefield developments, but on decisions yet to be made in Washington.
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Oil prices eye $100 mark amid intensifying Israel-Iran conflict
Oil soared towards $80 a barrel yesterday as industry experts warned conflict in the Middle East could send it above $100. Brent – the global benchmark – reached a five-month high above $78 a barrel as Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks. And if passage through the Strait of Hormuz – a shipping route in the Persian Gulf for 20 per cent of the world's oil – is cut off, the price could rocket higher. The Bank of England sounded the alarm yesterday over surging oil prices, which threaten to drive inflation higher, in its interest rates decision. But average rises are still less than a penny for petrol and diesel, the motoring association said. 'A spike in the oil price looks daunting but it is taking its time to filter through to drivers,' AA spokesman Luke Bosdet said. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict Brent could reach $90 a barrel and Barclays claimed, in the 'worst-case scenario' of a wider war, it could pass $100. Shares in BP and Shell rose 1.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively on hopes that higher oil prices will boost profits. Former BP chief executive Lord Browne (pictured) said the trajectory for prices 'depends [on] what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, but if we really do shut down global supply then the price will go up a lot'. 'A lot of the price is controlled by fear, fear that Iran will do something different... I think there'll be a lot of volatility short-term,' he told LBC. And Shell chief executive Wael Sawan (pictured) said: 'The escalation in tensions has added to what has already been significant uncertainty in the region. We're being very careful with, for example, our shipping in the region, just to make sure that we do not take any unnecessary risks.' At an industry conference in Tokyo, he said 'the Strait of Hormuz is the artery through which the world's energy flows and if that artery is blocked, for whatever reason, it'll have a huge impact on global trade.'
CNN
an hour ago
- Business
- CNN
So, has anything actually gotten more expensive because of Trump's tariffs?
Predictions from mainstream economists were dire after President Donald Trump launched his tariff campaign just a couple weeks after he began his second term in office: Prices would rise — sharply — they said, reigniting an inflation crisis that tens of millions of Americans had elected him to solve. But that massive, tariff-induced inflation spike hasn't materialized. Not even close. Not yet, anyway. Consumer prices rose just 2.4%, annually, last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was less than economists had expected, and only slightly higher than the 2.3% rate in April, which was the US economy's lowest inflation since February 2021. According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index most closely followed by the Federal Reserve, core inflation — which strips out volatile items like food and gas prices — fell to 2.5% in April. That was the lowest reading since March 2021. That's a far cry from what economists and consumers have predicted. Month after month, inflation has fallen short of Wall Street's expectations, as American businesses said they would be forced to hike prices as a result of historically high tariffs. America's effective tariff rate is now 14.1%, according to Fitch Ratings, up from 2.3% last year. That means Trump raised taxes on imported goods by nearly 12 percentage points in 2025. Economists expected substantial inflation increases as a result. Goldman Sachs analysts last month said core inflation could hit 6.3% this year and consumer prices would surge 3.7% by early 2026. JPMorgan economists said core inflation would nearly double by the end of this year. And American consumers in May expected prices to rise an alarming 6.6% this year, according to sentiment surveys from the University of Michigan. That prediction fell in June, but consumers still expect inflation to hit 5.1% in 2025. So what happened? Are economists just really bad at their jobs? Not quite. Their predictions may yet come true — and economists are largely cleaving to their bets. America's economy is enormous and complex, and predicting when prices will rise and fall can be an extremely tricky business — particularly when factoring in the on-again, off-again nature of Trump's tariff regime. Still, tariffs through mid-June haven't caused inflation to spike. Love tariffs or hate them, there's no denying inflation is lower now then when Trump took office. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said just a few items are growing in price as a result of tariffs, including electronics that come from China. He said PCs and A/V equipment have become more expensive because of Trump's trade war. But the price increases aren't widespread yet, Powell noted, because stores are still working through the inventory that came in to their warehouses before Trump put tariffs in place. 'Goods being sold at retailers today may have been imported several months ago, before tariffs were imposed,' Powell said. Research firm Telsey Advisory Group, which has been tracking the prices of 80 select consumer items across a wide variety of retail categories, reported this week that just 19 products it has tracked have gained in price since mid-April — and 16 items' prices fell. Similarly, the New York Times' Wirecutter, which recommends consumer products, tracked the prices for 40 of its top picks over the course of two months and found this week that the vast majority didn't change price at all: 10 gained in price and only half of those gained more than 7%. 'There haven't been many significant upticks in prices as of yet given that many retailers are still selling through their lower-cost inventory,' Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group told CNN. Even autos, many of which are subject to a 25% tariff, plus a tariff of up to 25% on some imported auto parts, haven't gained in price — they've fallen. New car prices fell 0.2% in May, according to car-buying research site Edmunds, and they rose only 2.5% compared to the pre-tariff period in March. Both new and used car prices fell in May, according to the BLS' Consumer Price Index. That's because dealers are still working through their supply of pre-tariff cars, according to Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. With prices remaining in check so far, the Trump administration has declared victory. 'They've all been discredited,' said the White House's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, in an interview last month with CNN, referring to tariffs' detractors. 'What we got in the first term [of Trump's presidency] was not recession or inflation, we got price stability, robust economic growth and rising wages, just as we thought we would.' Navarro has frequently pointed to the low overall inflation during Trump's first term, despite his tariffs. And he's right: CPI peaked at 2.9% in mid-2018 before falling below 2% throughout most of 2019. But Navarro's assertion about the impact of tariffs on the US economy comes with a couple of significant caveats: First, Trump during his current term has already placed tariffs of at least 10% on $2.3 trillion of imported goods, comprising 71% of all US goods imports, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. In his first term, Trump placed tariffs on just $380 billion worth of foreign goods. And second, the pandemic severely disrupted the global economy soon after Trump's tariffs took effect, preventing economists from getting a decent picture of how significantly prices rose. But some data shows prices gained in the specific sectors Trump targeted with his first-term tariffs. For example, after imposing some steel tariffs in 2018, US production expanded modestly, but it sent costs rising for cars, tools and machines; and shrank those industries' output by more than $3 billion in 2021, the International Trade Commission found in a 2023 analysis. Nevertheless, Joseph Lavorgna, a former Wall Street economist turned Treasury Department official, took a victory lap because inflation hasn't risen since Trump imposed tariffs during his second term. 'Tariffs have just not shown up at all in any of the data,' Lavorgna, counselor to the Treasury secretary, told CNN this week. 'The forecasting community has been completely wrong.' Lavorgna, a former SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist who also served in the White House during Trump's first term, said a broad range of inflation metrics suggests foreign producers are absorbing tariffs and that the trade war won't be inflationary. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed that message Thursday during a briefing, saying: 'America is quickly returning to the successful formula of the first Trump administration: low inflation and rising wages.' Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise. 'It's a question of when, not if,' Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, told CNN. Walmart, Target, Lululemon, Home Depot and Costco among others have said in recent weeks that they will raise some prices because of tariff pressures. Although some of the big box retailers said they would work to keep most prices low, they acknowledged that they operate low-margin businesses, and in the cases when American-made alternatives are unavailable or more expensive, they expect that they'll have to pass some of that additional cost to their customers. Consumers won't be alone in their struggles with tariffs in the coming months, said said Sid Malladi, CEO of Nuvo, a company that manages businesses' trade partnerships. Price hikes will weigh on businesses, too, many of whom will take on some of the hit to keep prices as low as possible for as long as possible. But that could mean difficult conversations in the boardroom later this year about potential layoffs and other cost cutting. 'This is early innings. No one wants to be first out of the gate,' said Malladi. 'You don't want to risk reputational damage to your brand, because raising prices in this environment might cause customers to turn away from you. Many may eat their margin for a few months.' 'It's hard to overstate the level of anxiety businesses have,' Malladi added. Small businesses, without the supply chain mastery of larger companies, have struggled in particular to afford higher tariff costs and have said they are reducing supply or raising prices. Many have complained that American alternatives for some foreign imports may be unavailable or are too expensive. 'While larger retailers may have the scale, capital and pricing power to absorb or strategically offset these pressures, small and mid-sized players remain significantly more vulnerable, with limited flexibility to manage rising input costs or supply disruptions,' Telsey said in TAG's latest Product Pricing Analysis report. Telsey noted that prices, when they eventually start to rise, won't all gain equally or across the board. Only select goods will start to gain in price to start, likely beginning in late August or September. 'Inventory is ordered typically anywhere from six months to one year in advance, and it is expected that the select pricing pieces will begin to show up in late summer,' she said. Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday agreed that the tipping point for broad consumer price increases could come this summer as inventories of pre-tariff warehoused goods dry up. 'We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer,' Powell said. 'It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.' Normally, retailers hold about 1 to 2 months' worth of inventory on items, noted Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, so prices could begin to rise in the coming weeks. Another indication that prices could start to spike: In April's Institute for Supply Management services report, prices paid by businesses increased the most since November 2022, and business inventories contracted. 'Low inventories make it harder for companies to keep prices steady, so going forward, we expect the inflation impacts from tariffs to become more apparent,' Akullian said. Powell agreed with that timeline, noting companies that report on their business sentiment to the Fed have said they expect to pass those tariff costs on down the supply chain. 'Many, many companies do expect to put all or — some of the effect of tariffs through to the next person in the chain, and ultimately, to the consumer,' Powell said. 'So we're beginning to see some effects. We expect to see more.' Despite initial success at maintaining low prices, Treasury's Lavorgna conceded inflation could begin to rise down the road because of tariffs. 'I'm not saying there can't be a tariff effect on the numbers at some point,' he said. CNN's Phil Mattingly, Matt Egan and Chris Isidore contributed to this report.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
So, has anything actually gotten more expensive because of Trump's tariffs?
Predictions from mainstream economists were dire after President Donald Trump launched his tariff campaign just a couple weeks after he began his second term in office: Prices would rise — sharply — they said, reigniting an inflation crisis that tens of millions of Americans had elected him to solve. But that massive, tariff-induced inflation spike hasn't materialized. Not even close. Not yet, anyway. Consumer prices rose just 2.4%, annually, last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was less than economists had expected, and only slightly higher than the 2.3% rate in April, which was the US economy's lowest inflation since February 2021. According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index most closely followed by the Federal Reserve, core inflation — which strips out volatile items like food and gas prices — fell to 2.5% in April. That was the lowest reading since March 2021. That's a far cry from what economists and consumers have predicted. Month after month, inflation has fallen short of Wall Street's expectations, as American businesses said they would be forced to hike prices as a result of historically high tariffs. America's effective tariff rate is now 14.1%, according to Fitch Ratings, up from 2.3% last year. That means Trump raised taxes on imported goods by nearly 12 percentage points in 2025. Economists expected substantial inflation increases as a result. Goldman Sachs analysts last month said core inflation could hit 6.3% this year and consumer prices would surge 3.7% by early 2026. JPMorgan economists said core inflation would nearly double by the end of this year. And American consumers in May expected prices to rise an alarming 6.6% this year, according to sentiment surveys from the University of Michigan. That prediction fell in June, but consumers still expect inflation to hit 5.1% in 2025. So what happened? Are economists just really bad at their jobs? Not quite. Their predictions may yet come true — and economists are largely cleaving to their bets. America's economy is enormous and complex, and predicting when prices will rise and fall can be an extremely tricky business — particularly when factoring in the on-again, off-again nature of Trump's tariff regime. Still, tariffs through mid-June haven't caused inflation to spike. Love tariffs or hate them, there's no denying inflation is lower now then when Trump took office. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said just a few items are growing in price as a result of tariffs, including electronics that come from China. He said PCs and A/V equipment have become more expensive because of Trump's trade war. But the price increases aren't widespread yet, Powell noted, because stores are still working through the inventory that came in to their warehouses before Trump put tariffs in place. 'Goods being sold at retailers today may have been imported several months ago, before tariffs were imposed,' Powell said. Research firm Telsey Advisory Group, which has been tracking the prices of 80 select consumer items across a wide variety of retail categories, reported this week that just 19 products it has tracked have gained in price since mid-April — and 16 items' prices fell. Similarly, the New York Times' Wirecutter, which recommends consumer products, tracked the prices for 40 of its top picks over the course of two months and found this week that the vast majority didn't change price at all: 10 gained in price and only half of those gained more than 7%. 'There haven't been many significant upticks in prices as of yet given that many retailers are still selling through their lower-cost inventory,' Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group told CNN. Even autos, many of which are subject to a 25% tariff, plus a tariff of up to 25% on some imported auto parts, haven't gained in price — they've fallen. New car prices fell 0.2% in May, according to car-buying research site Edmunds, and they rose only 2.5% compared to the pre-tariff period in March. Both new and used car prices fell in May, according to the BLS' Consumer Price Index. That's because dealers are still working through their supply of pre-tariff cars, according to Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. With prices remaining in check so far, the Trump administration has declared victory. 'They've all been discredited,' said the White House's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, in an interview last month with CNN, referring to tariffs' detractors. 'What we got in the first term [of Trump's presidency] was not recession or inflation, we got price stability, robust economic growth and rising wages, just as we thought we would.' Navarro has frequently pointed to the low overall inflation during Trump's first term, despite his tariffs. And he's right: CPI peaked at 2.9% in mid-2018 before falling below 2% throughout most of 2019. But Navarro's assertion about the impact of tariffs on the US economy comes with a couple of significant caveats: First, Trump during his current term has already placed tariffs of at least 10% on $2.3 trillion of imported goods, comprising 71% of all US goods imports, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. In his first term, Trump placed tariffs on just $380 billion worth of foreign goods. And second, the pandemic severely disrupted the global economy soon after Trump's tariffs took effect, preventing economists from getting a decent picture of how significantly prices rose. But some data shows prices gained in the specific sectors Trump targeted with his first-term tariffs. For example, after imposing some steel tariffs in 2018, US production expanded modestly, but it sent costs rising for cars, tools and machines; and shrank those industries' output by more than $3 billion in 2021, the International Trade Commission found in a 2023 analysis. Nevertheless, Joseph Lavorgna, a former Wall Street economist turned Treasury Department official, took a victory lap because inflation hasn't risen since Trump imposed tariffs during his second term. 'Tariffs have just not shown up at all in any of the data,' Lavorgna, counselor to the Treasury secretary, told CNN this week. 'The forecasting community has been completely wrong.' Lavorgna, a former SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist who also served in the White House during Trump's first term, said a broad range of inflation metrics suggests foreign producers are absorbing tariffs and that the trade war won't be inflationary. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed that message Thursday during a briefing, saying: 'America is quickly returning to the successful formula of the first Trump administration: low inflation and rising wages.' Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise. 'It's a question of when, not if,' Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, told CNN. Walmart, Target, Lululemon, Home Depot and Costco among others have said in recent weeks that they will raise some prices because of tariff pressures. Although some of the big box retailers said they would work to keep most prices low, they acknowledged that they operate low-margin businesses, and in the cases when American-made alternatives are unavailable or more expensive, they expect that they'll have to pass some of that additional cost to their customers. Consumers won't be alone in their struggles with tariffs in the coming months, said said Sid Malladi, CEO of Nuvo, a company that manages businesses' trade partnerships. Price hikes will weigh on businesses, too, many of whom will take on some of the hit to keep prices as low as possible for as long as possible. But that could mean difficult conversations in the boardroom later this year about potential layoffs and other cost cutting. 'This is early innings. No one wants to be first out of the gate,' said Malladi. 'You don't want to risk reputational damage to your brand, because raising prices in this environment might cause customers to turn away from you. Many may eat their margin for a few months.' 'It's hard to overstate the level of anxiety businesses have,' Malladi added. Small businesses, without the supply chain mastery of larger companies, have struggled in particular to afford higher tariff costs and have said they are reducing supply or raising prices. Many have complained that American alternatives for some foreign imports may be unavailable or are too expensive. 'While larger retailers may have the scale, capital and pricing power to absorb or strategically offset these pressures, small and mid-sized players remain significantly more vulnerable, with limited flexibility to manage rising input costs or supply disruptions,' Telsey said in TAG's latest Product Pricing Analysis report. Telsey noted that prices, when they eventually start to rise, won't all gain equally or across the board. Only select goods will start to gain in price to start, likely beginning in late August or September. 'Inventory is ordered typically anywhere from six months to one year in advance, and it is expected that the select pricing pieces will begin to show up in late summer,' she said. Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday agreed that the tipping point for broad consumer price increases could come this summer as inventories of pre-tariff warehoused goods dry up. 'We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer,' Powell said. 'It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.' Normally, retailers hold about 1 to 2 months' worth of inventory on items, noted Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, so prices could begin to rise in the coming weeks. Another indication that prices could start to spike: In April's Institute for Supply Management services report, prices paid by businesses increased the most since November 2022, and business inventories contracted. 'Low inventories make it harder for companies to keep prices steady, so going forward, we expect the inflation impacts from tariffs to become more apparent,' Akullian said. Powell agreed with that timeline, noting companies that report on their business sentiment to the Fed have said they expect to pass those tariff costs on down the supply chain. 'Many, many companies do expect to put all or — some of the effect of tariffs through to the next person in the chain, and ultimately, to the consumer,' Powell said. 'So we're beginning to see some effects. We expect to see more.' Despite initial success at maintaining low prices, Treasury's Lavorgna conceded inflation could begin to rise down the road because of tariffs. 'I'm not saying there can't be a tariff effect on the numbers at some point,' he said. CNN's Phil Mattingly, Matt Egan and Chris Isidore contributed to this report. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
