Texas Longhorns opponents on 2025 schedule ranked by ESPN FPI
Texas Longhorns opponents on 2025 schedule ranked by ESPN FPI
ESPN has released its FPI rankings for 2025. How do the super computers in Bristol, CT rank the 12 teams on the Texas Longhorns schedule?
According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) "is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team's strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team's odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title."
After the 20,000 simulations, the Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the nation. Texas has the top FPI rating at 28.5. ESPN gives the Longhorns an 8.9% chance of going undefeated with a projected record of 10.4-2.1. UT has a 34.1% to win the SEC, an 83.9% chance of making the 12-team college football playoff, an astounding 37.7% chance to make the national title game and a 24.1% chance to win it all.
Here's how Texas' 2025 opponents rank:
FPI Rating : 26.6 (No. 2)
: 26.6 (No. 2) Projected W/L : 10.1-2.3
: 10.1-2.3 Playoff chances : 78.6%
: 78.6% Make national title chances : 30%
: 30% Win national title chances: 17.9%
Comment: The fact Texas must face the No. 2 team on the FPI makes the Georgia game even tougher.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Aug. 30)
FPI Rating : 23.8 (No. 4)
: 23.8 (No. 4) Projected W/L : 10.4-2.2
: 10.4-2.2 Playoff chances : 70.6%
: 70.6% Make national title chances : 21.3%
: 21.3% Win national title chances: 10.8%
Comment: The Buckeyes are the fourth highest ranked team and another tough road test for the Horns.
FPI Rating : 17.9 (No. 8)
: 17.9 (No. 8) Projected W/L : 8.1-4.1
: 8.1-4.1 Playoff chances : 34.3%
: 34.3% Make national title chances : 5.5%
: 5.5% Win national title chances: 2.3%
Comment: The numbers really drop off once you get to past the Top 10. The Aggies only have a 34% chance of making the playoff.
4. Oklahoma Sooners (Oct. 11)
FPI Rating : 14.6 (No. 16)
: 14.6 (No. 16) Projected W/L : 6.9-5.1
: 6.9-5.1 Playoff chances : 18.4%
: 18.4% Make national title chances : 2.2%
: 2.2% Win national title chances: 0.8%
Comment: OU has a new QB in John Mateer but ESPN's algorithm projects the Sooners a long way from winning a title.
FPI Rating : 14.3 (No. 18)
: 14.3 (No. 18) Projected W/L : 6.4-5.6
: 6.4-5.6 Playoff chances : 14.5%
: 14.5% Make national title chances : 1.6%
: 1.6% Win national title chances: 0.7%
Comment: Florida should be better than last year. Texas will play the Gators in the Swamp to open SEC play.
FPI Rating : 7.6 (No. 22)
: 7.6 (No. 22) Projected W/L : 6.1-5.9
: 6.1-5.9 Playoff chances : 8.2%
: 8.2% Make national title chances : 0.7%
: 0.7% Win national title chances: 0.3%
Comment: The Razorbacks come to Austin for the first time in over 20 years.
FPI Rating : 10.8 (No. 34)
: 10.8 (No. 34) Projected W/L : 5.6-6.4
: 5.6-6.4 Playoff chances : 3.3%
: 3.3% Make national title chances : 0.1%
: 0.1% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: The Wildcats are the first team on this list projected to have a losing record.
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Oct. 25)
FPI Rating : 3.8 (No. 52)
: 3.8 (No. 52) Projected W/L : 4.4-7.6
: 4.4-7.6 Playoff chances : 0.7%
: 0.7% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: The Bulldogs might be slightly better in 2025, but Hail State will still be one of the worst teams in the SEC.
9. Vanderbilt Commodores (Nov. 1)
FPI Rating : 3.4 (No. 56)
: 3.4 (No. 56) Projected W/L : 3.2-8.8
: 3.2-8.8 Playoff chances : 0.9%
: 0.9% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: Vanderbilt gave Texas a very tough game last year in Nashville. This year the Commodores travel to DKR.
10. San Jose State Spartans (Sept. 6)
FPI Rating : -6.9 (No. 93)
: -6.9 (No. 93) Projected W/L : 3.2-8.8
: 3.2-8.8 Playoff chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: The Spartans are the best of the cupcakes on the schedule.
11. Sam Houston Bearkats (Sept. 20)
FPI Rating : -10.7 (No. 111)
: -10.7 (No. 111) Projected W/L : 5.2-7.0
: 5.2-7.0 Playoff chances : 0.4%
: 0.4% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: Former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo takes over the Bearkats still struggling to find their footing in FBS.
12. UTEP Miners (Sept. 13)
FPI Rating : -15.6 (No. 130)
: -15.6 (No. 130) Projected W/L : 4.9-7.2
: 4.9-7.2 Playoff chances : 0.1%
: 0.1% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: UTEP is ranked as one of the worst teams in FBS by ESPN's computers.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Minjee Lee grabs four-shot lead at 'brutal' Women's PGA Championship
Australian Minjee Lee waves to fans after finishing the third round of the Women's PGA Championship with a four-shot lead (Sam Hodde) Australia's Minjee Lee defied difficult, windy conditions with a remarkable bogey-free three-under par 69 on Saturday to seize a four-stroke lead over Jeeno Thitikul at the Women's PGA Championship in Texas. Lee, chasing her third major title, fired three birdies in one of just three sub-par rounds at Fields Ranch East in Frisco, north of Dallas, where soaring temperatures and wind tested golfers for a third straight day. Advertisement "I just try to stay patient out there," the 29-year-old said after building a six-under total of 210. "You can't get ahead of yourself, especially in these conditions." Trailing Jeeno by three to start the day, Lee grabbed her first birdie at the ninth, where she blasted out of a greenside bunker to four feet and made the putt. She finally took control at the par-five 14th, drilling a 19-foot birdie putt as Jeeno three-putted for a bogey that dropped her three strokes back. Lee added a birdie at the 15th, and remained bogey free with a par save at 18 -- where her second shot raced through the green but she chipped to three feet. Advertisement "I try to stay within myself and play the shot as best as I could," she said. "Just stayed patient, just take it as it comes." Lee, whose 10 LPGA victories include major titles at the 2021 Evian Championship and 2022 US Women's Open, said there would be plenty of work to do on Sunday despite her four-shot cushion. "It's just only getting harder and harder just with I think pressure of a major championship, and also just the course just demands so much from you," she said. World number two Jeeno's hopes of a first major title took an early hit with bogeys at the third and sixth. Advertisement She rolled in a 12-foot birdie at the eighth, but dropped into a tie for the lead after back-to-back bogeys at 11 and 12. She bounced back from her bogey at 14 with a birdie at 15, but gave back a shot at the 16th, finishing with a four-over 76 for 214. Lee and Jeeno, both based in the Dallas area, were the only players under par heading into the final round. US veteran Lexi Thompson, playing a limited schedule this season, shook off a horrendous start to post a three-over par 75 to headline a trio sharing third place on one-over 217. Thompson opened with a triple-bogey and a bogey and added another bogey at the eighth before she made two birdies coming in. Advertisement She was joined on one-over by South Korean Choi Hye-jin, who carded a 72, and Japan's Miyu Yamashita, who shot 73. - No momentum - World number one Nelly Korda had five birdies and five bogeys in her even par 72 to headline a group of four on 218. "It's brutal out there when it comes to the setup of the golf course, wind conditions, everything," Korda said. "I'm very happy with even par. "You're just happy to get 18 under your belt on a day like this," added the American, who said having substantial waits on several tees only added to the difficulty of the day. Advertisement "You don't want to be spending 20 minutes and getting up to the next tee and then you're 15 minutes and getting up to the next tee and it's another 15 minutes," she said. "There is just, like, no momentum in it." Korda was tied with Ireland's Leona Maguire, Japan's Chisato Iwai, South Korean Lee So-mi and American Yealimi Noh -- who had two eagles but also six bogeys in her 74. Australian Grace Kim had the low round of the day, firing six birdies in an impressive four-under par 68 that gave put her among a group of five players on three-over 219. bb/js
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Magical Minjee Lee leads Women's PGA Championship
Minjee Lee is on the precipice of landing a third career major and the biggest cheque in women's golf after seizing a commanding lead at the PGA Championship in Texas. The Australian superstar defied more brutal conditions with a sublime third-round three-under-par 69 to skip out to a four-shot lead at PGA Frisco's scorching and windswept Fields Ranch East course. Lee started the day three shots behind world No.2 Jeeno Thitikul and was unable to make any inroads on the Thai before hitting top gear around the turn. So when's the masterclass in putting @minjeegolf? She sinks this 18-footer to move her lead to three 💪 — LPGA (@LPGA) June 21, 2025 Brilliant off the tee and with the broomstick in hand, the Perth prodigy collected her first birdie of the day on the ninth hole, then nabbed two more on 14 and 15 to turn a three-shot deficit into a four-stroke buffer. After hitting 11 of 14 fairways and needing just 26 putts, Lee finished round three at six under, a score Thitikul briefly reached before stumbling with four back-nine bogeys in a rough four-over round of 76. The leading duo are the only players in red numbers as the season's third major shapes as a Sunday match-play showdown. South Korean Hye-Jin Choi (72), Japan's Miyu Yamashita (73) and American Lexi Thompson (75) are tied for third at one over, seven shots behind the runaway leader. Victory for the 29-year-old would earn Lee the third leg of women's golf grand slam following her 2021 Evian Championship triumph and 2022 US Open success. It's safe to say, @minjeegolf is in her element 😎Tune in now on @Peacock — LPGA (@LPGA) June 21, 2025 Lee is also hoping to snap a 19-month winless run, the longest drought of her decorated career. Victory would also secure Australian women's sport's highest earner another monster cheque of $US3.4 million ($A5.25 million), the equal-highest pay day in her game's history.
Associated Press
an hour ago
- Associated Press
Minjee Lee has 1st bogey-free round at windy Women's PGA to take 4-shot lead into final day
FRISCO, Texas (AP) — Two-time major champion Minjee Lee took over the lead with the first bogey-free round for anyone during a windy week at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship, a 3-under 69 in the third round Saturday to move four strokes ahead of Jeeno Thitikul. Lee got to 6-under 210 after beginning the round three strokes behind Thitikul, the world's No. 2-ranked player who led alone at the end of each of the first two days. Lee, the Australian who lives in nearby Irving, went in front with a 2-foot par at the 405-yard 12th hole when Thitikul had her second consecutive bogey, and fourth of the day on way to a round of 76. Far from tree-lined Sahalee outside Seattle where the Women's PGA was last year, Fields Ranch East at PGA Frisco is much more open and exposed to the ever-present Texas wind that was the strongest it had been all week. There were gusts of more than 30 mph Saturday, with much the same forecast for the final round. Temperatures were again in the mid-90s. Nelly Korda, the world's top-ranked player, described the conditions as 'just brutal' after her round of 72 that began with back-to-back bogeys but ended with two birdies down the stretch. She had five birdies and five bogeys and is tied for sixth at 2-over 218. Lee and Thitikul were the only players still under par. Lexi Thompson (75), after a triple-bogey start, was tied for third at 1 over with Hye Jin Choi (72) and Miyu Yamashita (73). Thitikul had the only birdie Saturday among the 78 players on the 172-yard, par-3 eighth hole, which generally plays downwind and where only 29% of the tee shots all week have stayed on the green. That 13-foot birdie was her first of the day and got her to 5 under, two strokes ahead of Lee. But Thitikul's lead was gone after back-to-back bogeys on the back side. She pushed a 4-foot par chance past the hole at the 383-yard 11th, her first miss inside 5 feet this week. Then her drive at the 417-yard 12th hole went way right into a penalty area, and Lee went ahead to stay. Lee, who won the 2022 U.S. Women's Open and 2021 British Women's Open, was steady Saturday with eight consecutive pars before a 4-foot birdie at the 487-yard ninth hole. Her other birdies were an 18-footer at the 515-yard, par-5 14th and a 1 1/2-foot at the bunker-surrounded 236-yard par 4 15th hole. Thitikul had her third bogey in a four-hole stretch when three-putting from 50 feet at No. 14. Semi-retired Thompson, in the second-to-last group, hit her tee shot into the fairway on the 517-yard par-5 first hole, a 207-yard drive into the wind. But she topped her second shot that went only 117 yards, indicating to her caddie that the wind had her off balance, and then shanked her next shot right, a ball that was never found for a penalty on way to triple bogey. She followed with another bogey on the second hole, but had two birdies and only one bogey the rest of the way. Thompson, playing for only the seventh time in 16 tournaments this season, won her only major in the 2014 Kraft Nabisco Championship, but her 13 top-five finishes in majors since 2013 are the most by any player and among her 20 top-10 finishes in those events. LPGA rookie Rio Takeda opened with a bogey 6 at the first hole after starting the round tied with with Lee for second place. Takeda later had a pair of double bogeys, including the 315-yard par-4 7th hole where her drive wound up in the upper face of a greenside bunker that left her with an awkward stance and unable to get the ball out on the first try. Grace Kim had the best round of the day with a 68 that included six birdies and two bogeys, moving up from a tie for 68th to tied for 10th. Minjee Lee and Andrea (71) had the only other under-par rounds. Kim, among the 11 players who got to the weekend right on the 7-over cut, teed off at 6:55 a.m. local time, six hours before the final group of Thitikul and Lee went off the first hole. There was even a hole-in-one, Brianna Do acing the 150-yard fourth hole. It was the third in the last four years in the Women's PGA. ___ AP golf:
