Latest news with #FootballPowerIndex
USA Today
12 hours ago
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN makes 2025 Georgia football record prediction
The Georgia Bulldogs could be facing an SEC championship rematch in 2025, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The Texas Longhorns (34.1%) and Georgia (26.9%) have the two best odds to win the SEC per FPI's estimate. The Alabama Crimson Tide (17.2%) are the only other SEC team with more than a 5% chance to win the conference. Interestingly, Georgia is scheduled to play both Texas and Alabama at home this season. Of course, playing Texas and Alabama on the road did not stop the Bulldogs from making the 2024 SEC championship where UGA went on to beat Texas in overtime. Texas, Georgia and Alabama are the top three teams in ESPN's FPI metric. They are also the three teams with the best chance to win the national championship along with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Key FPI Metrics Bottom Line ESPN's FPI is pretty high on Georgia entering the 2025 season despite all of the talent that Georgia lost. The Bulldogs lost 13 players to the 2025 NFL draft and had several more key contributors go undrafted. Georgia's 2025 team does not have as much experience as the Dawgs have had in previous years. Georgia will also be trotting out a new starting quarterback in Gunner Stockton. Georgia lost starting quarterback Carson Beck to the transfer portal in the winter. Beck and outside linebacker Damon Wilson highlight 20 Georgia players that left via the transfer portal. Coach Kirby Smart did bring in 10 transfers, but there's no doubt that the Bulldogs lost a lot of key players to the portal. Georgia will have a new look in the trenches. The Dawgs had a trio of interior offensive linemen drafted and lost their six leading sack producers from the 2024 season to the draft or transfer portal. Despite all the turnover, the standard remains the same in Athens. Georgia has a more manageable schedule in 2025 and winning 10 games during the regular season and returning to the College Football Playoff is a very achievable goal for the Dawgs. Follow UGAWire on Instagram or Threads!
USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN predicts Florida football's 2025 record–and it's not pretty
ESPN predicts Florida football's 2025 record–and it's not pretty The Florida Gators are staring down a .500 season in 2025, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Florida football is projected to go 6.4-5.6, effectively a 6-6 regular season–ranking 12th in the SEC. It's a tough outlook for head coach Billy Napier, who enters a pivotal fourth season under pressure to show progress. Despite the buzz surrounding quarterback DJ Lagway, one of college football's young stars, the Gators face the No. 1 toughest remaining schedule (REM SOS) in college football. That makes any turnaround effort even more difficult. The Gators sit well behind SEC contenders like the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide, each projected to win nine or more games and contend for playoff spots. Even middle-tier programs like the Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers are ranked above Florida in ESPN's advanced model. Key FPI Metrics SEC FPI Rank: 12th 12th Projected Record: 6.4-5.6 (6-6) 6.4-5.6 (6-6) Chance to win SEC: 1.0% 1.0% Playoff Chance: 14.5% 14.5% Bowl Eligibility Odds: 68.2% Bottom Line ESPN's FPI doesn't see Florida breaking through in 2025. For Napier and Lagway, a 6-6 season may be the floor–but also the line they have to rise above. With pressure mounting in Gainesville, exceeding expectations won't just quiet critics–it may be necessary to secure the future of the program's leadership. Every game will be a test–not just of talent, but of whether this rebuild is actually turning the corner. Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
USA Today
7 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Update 2025 record projections for Big Ten football teams, per ESPN FPI
Update 2025 record projections for Big Ten football teams, per ESPN FPI There are a lot of eyes on the Big Ten Conference going into the 2025 college football season, with the Ohio State Buckeyes looking to defend their national championship with the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Indiana Hoosiers work to repeat as College Football Playoff teams. It will be a fun season in the conference, with a lot of new faces in new places and a handful of intriguing contenders trying to insert themselves into the top tier of teams alongside the Buckeyes, Ducks, Nittany Lions, and Hoosiers. While those teams have much of the attention at the top, there are also some intriguing storylines throughout the conference. Will UCLA be able to take a step forward with Nico Iamaleava Jr. at the helm? Will Mark Gronowski be able to overhaul Iowa's offense? Can Wisconsin get things going at long last this year under Luke Fickell? Will anyone step up and be this year's version of 2024 Indiana? All of those questions will be answered in months. Following the spring season, we took our stab at predicting the win-loss records for every Big Ten team, and with the release of ESPN's Football Power Index earlier this month, we have another set of data points to work with. Let's take a look at how ESPN predicts the season will shake out for the Big Ten teams: No. 18 — Purdue Boilermakers ESPN Record Projection: 3.2-8.8 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana Despite bringing in Barry Odom as the new head coach, I don't think it will be a very successful year yet again for Purdue. They can pick up a couple of early non-conference wins, but I don't see a quick turnaround coming any time soon. No. 17 — Northwestern Wildcats ESPN Record Projection: 4.1-7.9 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Louisiana-Monroe, Purdue Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, UCLA, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois The Wildcats were a nice story a couple of years ago with David Braun as the interim coach, but they regressed back to the mean last season and will probably stay there in 2025 as well. A season-opener against Tulane could prove tough, and the Big Ten schedule doesn't set up very nicely with games against Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Illinois down the stretch. No. 16 — Michigan State Spartans ESPN Record Projection: 5.2-6.8 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, Iowa, Maryland Projected Losses: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State In year two under Jonathan Smith, it's not hard to imagine that the Michigan State Spartans take a bit of a step forward. They have the talent to be, at the very least, solid in the Big Ten, assuming that quarterback Aiden Chiles continues to improve and can cut down on his turnover numbers. The schedule sets up pretty favorably as well, with no games against Oregon or Ohio State on the schedule. For more Michigan State news and analysis, check out Spartans Wire! No. 15 — UCLA Bruins ESPN Record Projection: 5.4-6.6 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-6 (2-7 Big Ten) Projected Wins: UNLV, New Mexico State, Northwestern, Maryland, Projected Losses: Utah, Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, Washington, USC How good will Nico Iamaleava Jr. be in his first year with the Bruins? The real question is how good will the Bruins be outside of Iamaleava to allow for overall team success? I see UCLA winning a few games, but as far as being a name to know in the Big Ten, I think we might need another year. For more UCLA news and analysis, check out UCLA Wire! No. 14 — Wisconsin Badgers ESPN Record Projection: 5.6-6.5 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Minnesota Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, Indiana, Illinois If Luke Fickell is going to make his mark at Wisconsin, he needs to do it this year. While the Badgers draw tough games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Illinois, they could compete with the rest of the Big Ten teams on the docket. For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire! No. 13 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights ESPN Record Projection: 5.8-6.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami (OH), Norfolk State, Purdue, Rutgers Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State Rutgers may be able to surprise a few people this year, with Kaliakmanis still under center, but I don't think they will be contending for a conference title any time soon. Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights draw the big three in the conference, with Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State all on the schedule. No. 12 — Maryland Terrapins ESPN Record Projection: 5.9-6.1 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) Projected Wins: FAU, Northern Illinois, Towson, Rutgers Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State Will this be the year that a below-average season leads Mike Locksley to the exit? You'd have to think that would be the case after winning just 33 of his last 75 games for the Terrapins. There are a few easy non-conference games on the schedule, but I don't see any reason to believe that Maryland will make a leap in the Big Ten this year. At some point, it's time to cut ties. No. 11 — Iowa Hawkeyes ESPN Record Projection: 6.2-5.8 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska Projected Losses: Iowa State, Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, USC, Michigan State Much to the dismay of Hawkeyes fans, I foresee another ho-hum year for Iowa, where they struggle to contend with the top teams in the conference but can manage their way through the middle. Games against Penn State and Oregon will be tough, and an early non-conference clash with Iowa State won't be easy, but outside of that, the Hawkeyes should be able to win a few. For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire! No. 10 — Illinois Fighting Illini ESPN Record Projection: 6.8-5.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Washington, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern Projected Losses: Duke, Ohio State Many people are pegging Illinois to be this year's version of Indiana in the Big Ten this year, seeing as they return a lot of players, particularly on offense, and have a favorable schedule. Should the Illini get past Duke early in the season, it could be pretty smooth sailing until they face Ohio State at home midway through the year. This could certainly be a team that is hanging around near the top of the standings late in the year. No. 9 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ESPN Record Projection: 6.9-5.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin Projected Losses: Cal, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, Oregon We know that PJ Fleck is a solid coach, and with the right pieces, he can make some noise in the conference. I'm not sure that we see Minnesota taking a big jump this year, considering they are a bit unproven at the QB position, but they can certainly compete with some other middle-of-the-road teams in the Big Ten. No. 8 — Washington Huskies ESPN Record Projection: 7.1-4.9 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA Projected Losses: Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon Nobody likes to discredit Washington more than Oregon fans, but even I have to admit that they could be pretty good this year. With Demond Williams under center and Jedd Fisch calling things, the Huskies' schedule is set up pretty favorably. Games against Ohio State, Illinois, and Oregon will all be tough, but they are at home in Seattle for all of them. For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire! No. 7 — Indiana Hoosiers ESPN Record Projection: 7.5-4.5 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Iowa, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue Projected Losses: Illinois, Oregon, Penn State Indiana was the story of the Big Ten last year, thanks to some elite coaching from Curt Cignetti and great quarterback play from Kurtis Rourke. They were also beneficiaries of a favorable schedule. Will their success continue in 2025? It will depend on Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza, who has the talent necessary to get the Hoosiers back into contention for the Big Ten title. The Hoosiers do have to play both Oregon and Penn State on the road, though, which is tough. No. 6 — Nebraska Cornhuskers ESPN Record Projection: 7.5-4.5 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, UCLA Projected Losses: USC, Penn State, Iowa If Dylan Raiola is as good as we were led to believe that he is, then this is when we should start to see it. I think that Nebraska is talented enough to compete at a high level in the Big Ten, and their schedule sets up for it this year, with no Ohio State or Oregon on the docket. Games against USC, Penn State, and Iowa will act as big tests, but this team could surprise some people when all is said and done. For more Nebraska news and analysis, check out Cornhuskers Wire! No. 5 — USC Trojans ESPN Record Projection: 8.3-3.9 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA Projected Losses: Illinois, Notre Dame, Oregon Assuming that Lincoln Riley can get some above-average quarterback play this year, USC could finally get out of the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and make a little bit of noise once November rolls around. They get to miss both Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule, but the yearly non-conference game against Notre Dame and a trip up to Eugene against the Ducks in November will be tough to handle. For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire! No. 4 — Michigan Wolverines ESPN Record Projection: 8.4-3.7 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Projected Wins: New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, Washington, Ohio State How good is Bryce Underwood going to be as a freshman? The answer to that question likely determines how good the Wolverines can be in 2025. They are talented on both sides of the ball, and if the true freshman QB can get over the learning curve quickly, they can play at the upper-middle tier of the conference. No games against Oregon or Penn State also help the projections. For more Michigan news and analysis, check out Wolverines Wire! No. 3 — Oregon Ducks ESPN Record Projection: 10.0-2.4 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC, Washington Projected Losses: Penn State There is one game on the schedule that could be really tough for the Ducks — at Penn State in Happy Valley — but other than that, this is a manageable schedule that could lead to a lot of wins. You don't have Ohio State or Michigan, and you get USC at home. While Oregon will have to head up to Seattle for the rivalry against Washington, they should be able to handle this slate just fine. For more Oregon news and analysis, check out Ducks Wire! No. 2 — Penn State Nittany Lions ESPN Record Projection: 10.2-2.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Nevada, Florida International, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers Projected Losses: Ohio State Penn State is getting a lot of preseason respect, being ranked well inside the top five almost unanimously across the board, and being named the No. 1 team by ESPN. It makes sense, seeing as they return a lot of starters from last year's College Football Playoff team. As always, The question remains whether they can win the big games. Oregon and Ohio State come to Happy Valley in 2025. Can James Franklin get it done? I say he goes 1-1. For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire! No. 1 — Ohio State Buckeyes ESPN Record Projection: 10.4-2.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (9-0 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan Projected Losses: Texas It looks like Ohio State could be up for another impressive run in the Big Ten this year. I currently have them winning all of their conference games, meaning that they beat Penn State in Happy Valley, which will be a big test. The only game I see the Buckeyes losing comes in Week 1 against the Texas Longhorns. They certainly have the talent to win that game, but considering that it will be Julian Sayin's first career start, I went with a loss. For more Ohio State news and analysis, check out Buckeyes Wire! Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Five games that will decide if Dabo Swinney, Clemson return to College Football Playoff
CLEMSON — Clemson returned to the College Football Playoff in 2024 for the first time in three seasons. The next step will be reaching its first national championship game since the 2019 season. The Tigers made the CFP after winning the ACC championship against SMU. They earned the No. 12 seed and lost to No. 5 Texas in the first round 38-24. Advertisement Clemson coach Dabo Swinney's team returns a wealth of experienced starters, including quarterback Cade Klubnik, and it added new defensive coordinator Tom Allen for 2025. ESPN's Football Power Index projects Clemson will win nine or 10 regular-season games, with a 34% chance to win the conference; a 47.3% chance to make the CFP; a 6.8% chance to make the national championship; and a 2.8% chance to win it all. Here's a look at which games could be the difference between making and missing the College Football Playoff in Swinney's 18th season. Clemson football schedule 2025: Expected results Before getting into the key games, here are the expected results for Clemson. Advertisement The Tigers should defeat Troy, a Group of Five program, and Furman, an in-state FCS school. They will face eight conference opponents and should defeat Syracuse, North Carolina, Boston College and Duke. If they lose any of those games, the margin of error becomes slimmer. A matchup that just missed the cut of being key-game consideration is Clemson vs. Florida State on Nov. 8. The Seminoles should be much improved after their disastrous 2024 season (last in the ACC), but Clemson likely will be able to handle them with relative ease. MORE: House settlement approves revenue sharing. Here's how Clemson will pay players Clemson vs. LSU on Aug. 30 This game (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) is one of the marquee matchups of Week 1. It will be a rematch of the 2020 national championship game, which LSU won 42-25, and a battle between top-10 teams as both feature prominent coaches, Swinney and Brian Kelly, and quarterbacks who could be first-round selections in the 2026 NFL Draft: Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier. Advertisement This game could be a résumé booster if they need to get an at-large bid for the CFP. Each also is looking to earn a Week 1 win for the first time in years. Clemson has not won a season-opening game since 2022; LSU has not won one since 2019. DraftKings Sportsbook has Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Clemson at Georgia Tech on Sept. 13 The Yellow Jackets are primed for a leap in Brent Key's third full season as a coach. They showed fight despite their 7-6 record in 2024, including their eight-overtime loss to Georgia to close the regular season. They also return sixth-year quarterback Haynes King. It is the Tigers' first time at Georgia Tech since 2020. They have won the past nine matchups, and this will be both teams' first conference game. The result will set the tone for how it will perform in ACC play. Clemson vs. SMU on Oct. 18 Clemson will face SMU in a rematch of last year's ACC championship. The Tigers won 34-31 on Nolan Hauser's 56-yard field goal. Advertisement ESPN's FPI projects the Mustangs as the third-best team in the conference in 2025, predicting them to win eight or nine games, with a 10.8% chance to win the ACC. They lost key contributors from their roster but return quarterback Kevin Jennings, who threw for 304 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against Clemson in the ACC title game. Clemson at Louisville on Nov. 14 Coach Jeff Brohm's team nearly ruined Clemson's CFP chances last season after it beat the Tigers 33-21 for the first time ever. The Cardinals lost quarterback Tyler Shough but added Southern California transfer Miller Moss to replace him and retained experienced players. This game is on a Friday and is the Tigers' final regular-season ACC matchup (with South Carolina and Furman after that). They are 4-0 in road games at Louisville, including a 30-24 win in their last game in 2021. They must avoid another mishap in their bid to make the conference championship game. Clemson at South Carolina on Nov. 29 The Palmetto Bowl will take center stage in Columbia, South Carolina. The Gamecocks shocked Clemson last year, winning 17-14 behind quarterback LaNorris Sellers' late-game heroics. He returns for a potential final showdown against Klubnik. Advertisement South Carolina is looking for its first CFP bid, and a win against Clemson will boost its résumé. Still, Clemson has won each of its past five road games at Williams-Brice Stadium. Derrian Carter covers Clemson athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at dcarter@ and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DerrianCarter00 This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Clemson football schedule 2025: Key games for Dabo Swinney, CFP hopes
USA Today
09-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Texas Longhorns opponents on 2025 schedule ranked by ESPN FPI
Texas Longhorns opponents on 2025 schedule ranked by ESPN FPI ESPN has released its FPI rankings for 2025. How do the super computers in Bristol, CT rank the 12 teams on the Texas Longhorns schedule? According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) "is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team's strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team's odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title." After the 20,000 simulations, the Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the nation. Texas has the top FPI rating at 28.5. ESPN gives the Longhorns an 8.9% chance of going undefeated with a projected record of 10.4-2.1. UT has a 34.1% to win the SEC, an 83.9% chance of making the 12-team college football playoff, an astounding 37.7% chance to make the national title game and a 24.1% chance to win it all. Here's how Texas' 2025 opponents rank: FPI Rating : 26.6 (No. 2) : 26.6 (No. 2) Projected W/L : 10.1-2.3 : 10.1-2.3 Playoff chances : 78.6% : 78.6% Make national title chances : 30% : 30% Win national title chances: 17.9% Comment: The fact Texas must face the No. 2 team on the FPI makes the Georgia game even tougher. 2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Aug. 30) FPI Rating : 23.8 (No. 4) : 23.8 (No. 4) Projected W/L : 10.4-2.2 : 10.4-2.2 Playoff chances : 70.6% : 70.6% Make national title chances : 21.3% : 21.3% Win national title chances: 10.8% Comment: The Buckeyes are the fourth highest ranked team and another tough road test for the Horns. FPI Rating : 17.9 (No. 8) : 17.9 (No. 8) Projected W/L : 8.1-4.1 : 8.1-4.1 Playoff chances : 34.3% : 34.3% Make national title chances : 5.5% : 5.5% Win national title chances: 2.3% Comment: The numbers really drop off once you get to past the Top 10. The Aggies only have a 34% chance of making the playoff. 4. Oklahoma Sooners (Oct. 11) FPI Rating : 14.6 (No. 16) : 14.6 (No. 16) Projected W/L : 6.9-5.1 : 6.9-5.1 Playoff chances : 18.4% : 18.4% Make national title chances : 2.2% : 2.2% Win national title chances: 0.8% Comment: OU has a new QB in John Mateer but ESPN's algorithm projects the Sooners a long way from winning a title. FPI Rating : 14.3 (No. 18) : 14.3 (No. 18) Projected W/L : 6.4-5.6 : 6.4-5.6 Playoff chances : 14.5% : 14.5% Make national title chances : 1.6% : 1.6% Win national title chances: 0.7% Comment: Florida should be better than last year. Texas will play the Gators in the Swamp to open SEC play. FPI Rating : 7.6 (No. 22) : 7.6 (No. 22) Projected W/L : 6.1-5.9 : 6.1-5.9 Playoff chances : 8.2% : 8.2% Make national title chances : 0.7% : 0.7% Win national title chances: 0.3% Comment: The Razorbacks come to Austin for the first time in over 20 years. FPI Rating : 10.8 (No. 34) : 10.8 (No. 34) Projected W/L : 5.6-6.4 : 5.6-6.4 Playoff chances : 3.3% : 3.3% Make national title chances : 0.1% : 0.1% Win national title chances: 0.0% Comment: The Wildcats are the first team on this list projected to have a losing record. 8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Oct. 25) FPI Rating : 3.8 (No. 52) : 3.8 (No. 52) Projected W/L : 4.4-7.6 : 4.4-7.6 Playoff chances : 0.7% : 0.7% Make national title chances : 0.0% : 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0% Comment: The Bulldogs might be slightly better in 2025, but Hail State will still be one of the worst teams in the SEC. 9. Vanderbilt Commodores (Nov. 1) FPI Rating : 3.4 (No. 56) : 3.4 (No. 56) Projected W/L : 3.2-8.8 : 3.2-8.8 Playoff chances : 0.9% : 0.9% Make national title chances : 0.0% : 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0% Comment: Vanderbilt gave Texas a very tough game last year in Nashville. This year the Commodores travel to DKR. 10. San Jose State Spartans (Sept. 6) FPI Rating : -6.9 (No. 93) : -6.9 (No. 93) Projected W/L : 3.2-8.8 : 3.2-8.8 Playoff chances : 0.0% : 0.0% Make national title chances : 0.0% : 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0% Comment: The Spartans are the best of the cupcakes on the schedule. 11. Sam Houston Bearkats (Sept. 20) FPI Rating : -10.7 (No. 111) : -10.7 (No. 111) Projected W/L : 5.2-7.0 : 5.2-7.0 Playoff chances : 0.4% : 0.4% Make national title chances : 0.0% : 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0% Comment: Former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo takes over the Bearkats still struggling to find their footing in FBS. 12. UTEP Miners (Sept. 13) FPI Rating : -15.6 (No. 130) : -15.6 (No. 130) Projected W/L : 4.9-7.2 : 4.9-7.2 Playoff chances : 0.1% : 0.1% Make national title chances : 0.0% : 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0% Comment: UTEP is ranked as one of the worst teams in FBS by ESPN's computers.
