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Economic Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Expecting a flush of money in India; 6 sectors to invest in over next 4-5 years: Sandip Agarwal
Sandip Agarwal, Fund Manager& Co founder, Sowilo Investment Managers, says India is poised for significant financial growth due to positive economic indicators and an anticipated surge in private capital expenditure (capex). While not immediately apparent in current figures, this capex increase is expected to materialize soon. Sectors like water, chemicals, cement, banks, power, and related ancillary industries present attractive investment opportunities over the next four to five years. ADVERTISEMENT You being a fund manager would definitely talk about long-term strategies, but given the market juncture right now, it is important to know what is going on in your mind and although the market on Thursday has erased the losses and is in a very range-bound and flattish territory right now, what sense are you making out of the market post Fed policy announcement? Sandip Agarwal: We are seeing that a few things have played out very positively. For instance, the RBI's upfronting of the rate cut along with liquidity flush, is number one. Number two, we are seeing a very clear trend that if you leave aside the Middle East problem which is currently there, crude is on a structural downturn for a multiple of reasons, more discoveries, and also everyone is in a race to sell more and more crude and there is a renewable energy demand. So, those things are playing in favour of India and that also reflects on the current account deficits. We have seen a period between 2010 and 2024 when Nifty returns were good because of the consistent rupee depreciation. The net return in the hands of the FII and FPI was quite low. Now we believe that because of the crude and because of the good GDP growth and also the more value addition which we are seeing in the electronic imports, we are in a situation where probably we will not see a structural sharp decline in the Indian Rupee and once this is recognised by the FIIs and FPI, a lot of money will come to India. We are expecting a flush of money in India because all other factors are very positive, any which ways for India, the growth rates and everything. Second, we are very positive on the capex issue. A lot of private capex has started picking up. It is not showing in the numbers currently, but it will start reflecting with a lag effect. We have been on a road trip to industrial towns in the country and we are seeing a lot of positive momentum on the private capex picking up. Where do you believe this money will get parked? In which sectors is now the time and where is the valuation comfort? Sandip Agarwal: It is a very good question and a very tricky one. But let me put it this way. Some of the capital goods stock may look expensive in the near term, but if you see the opportunity of capex in next four-five years whether it is in auto ancillaries or in industrial machinery, and all, you will see a lot of demand there and the multiples may look expensive now but they can create lot of value, so that is one space. Secondly, the financial intermediary space is very hot right now. But if someone is taking a three- to five-year call, there is a lot of money to be made there on the non-lending side. Even in the private bank space, if you leave aside the next two quarters where there will be some NIM compression, we are seeing a lot of value in the longer term because if the economy is going to do well, if capex spend is going to happen, then banks will see a very good pickup in the credit growth as well. So, that is another theme which can be there. ADVERTISEMENT The government is focused a lot on the water theme and there is a tremendous amount of work happening on the water side. This capex, water, chemicals, cement, banks, and non-lending ones also, these six things are very attractive right now along with power. In power, the whole ancillary setup of the power like cables and transformers look very good. But we have to see at what price they are available and whether there is value or not. If you end up buying something very expensive, all your returns for next three years are already built in. We have to be a little bit careful, but these six-seven things will do phenomenally well in the next four-five years. Any specific reason when we look at consumer discretionary and especially the next six months of this calendar year, where we will see a lot of impact coming in and consumption going up because of the rate cut scenario? Now that we have seen a boost to the consumption sector, is there any specific pocket where you are focused? Sandip Agarwal: The problem is particularly on the consumption side, the challenge is that our per capita income is consistently going up and when per capita income starts going up, then people try to generally upgrade. So, the volume may not go up that much and the value may keep on going up, but additionally, our net population addition has also started seeing a little bit of deceleration. So, the key theme now will be more on the per capita income side. ADVERTISEMENT All your services which are on the luxury side, like costly car dealerships, the car services, the expensive watches, QSRs and all those things should do phenomenally well in my view. India is more of an increase in per capita income theme rather than only pure volume population-led theme and that is a big change happening on the consumer side. Within consumers, you will have to shift your portfolio towards expensive stuff that are proxies to increase in per capita income. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
10 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Expecting a flush of money in India; 6 sectors to invest in over next 4-5 years: Sandip Agarwal
Sandip Agarwal , Fund Manager& Co founder, Sowilo Investment Managers , says India is poised for significant financial growth due to positive economic indicators and an anticipated surge in private capital expenditure (capex). While not immediately apparent in current figures, this capex increase is expected to materialize soon. Sectors like water, chemicals, cement, banks, power, and related ancillary industries present attractive investment opportunities over the next four to five years. You being a fund manager would definitely talk about long-term strategies, but given the market juncture right now, it is important to know what is going on in your mind and although the market on Thursday has erased the losses and is in a very range-bound and flattish territory right now, what sense are you making out of the market post Fed policy announcement? Sandip Agarwal: We are seeing that a few things have played out very positively. For instance, the RBI's upfronting of the rate cut along with liquidity flush, is number one. Number two, we are seeing a very clear trend that if you leave aside the Middle East problem which is currently there, crude is on a structural downturn for a multiple of reasons, more discoveries, and also everyone is in a race to sell more and more crude and there is a renewable energy demand. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Undo So, those things are playing in favour of India and that also reflects on the current account deficits. We have seen a period between 2010 and 2024 when Nifty returns were good because of the consistent rupee depreciation. The net return in the hands of the FII and FPI was quite low. Now we believe that because of the crude and because of the good GDP growth and also the more value addition which we are seeing in the electronic imports, we are in a situation where probably we will not see a structural sharp decline in the Indian Rupee and once this is recognised by the FIIs and FPI, a lot of money will come to India. We are expecting a flush of money in India because all other factors are very positive, any which ways for India, the growth rates and everything. Second, we are very positive on the capex issue. A lot of private capex has started picking up. It is not showing in the numbers currently, but it will start reflecting with a lag effect. We have been on a road trip to industrial towns in the country and we are seeing a lot of positive momentum on the private capex picking up. Where do you believe this money will get parked? In which sectors is now the time and where is the valuation comfort? Sandip Agarwal: It is a very good question and a very tricky one. But let me put it this way. Some of the capital goods stock may look expensive in the near term, but if you see the opportunity of capex in next four-five years whether it is in auto ancillaries or in industrial machinery, and all, you will see a lot of demand there and the multiples may look expensive now but they can create lot of value, so that is one space. Live Events You Might Also Like: If West Asia conflict spreads and oil pips $80, it will upset the apple cart for Indian & Asian equities: David Chao Secondly, the financial intermediary space is very hot right now. But if someone is taking a three- to five-year call, there is a lot of money to be made there on the non-lending side. Even in the private bank space, if you leave aside the next two quarters where there will be some NIM compression, we are seeing a lot of value in the longer term because if the economy is going to do well, if capex spend is going to happen, then banks will see a very good pickup in the credit growth as well. So, that is another theme which can be there. The government is focused a lot on the water theme and there is a tremendous amount of work happening on the water side. This capex, water, chemicals, cement, banks, and non-lending ones also, these six things are very attractive right now along with power. In power, the whole ancillary setup of the power like cables and transformers look very good. But we have to see at what price they are available and whether there is value or not. If you end up buying something very expensive, all your returns for next three years are already built in. We have to be a little bit careful, but these six-seven things will do phenomenally well in the next four-five years. Any specific reason when we look at consumer discretionary and especially the next six months of this calendar year, where we will see a lot of impact coming in and consumption going up because of the rate cut scenario? Now that we have seen a boost to the consumption sector, is there any specific pocket where you are focused? Sandip Agarwal: The problem is particularly on the consumption side, the challenge is that our per capita income is consistently going up and when per capita income starts going up, then people try to generally upgrade. So, the volume may not go up that much and the value may keep on going up, but additionally, our net population addition has also started seeing a little bit of deceleration. So, the key theme now will be more on the per capita income side. All your services which are on the luxury side, like costly car dealerships, the car services, the expensive watches, QSRs and all those things should do phenomenally well in my view. India is more of an increase in per capita income theme rather than only pure volume population-led theme and that is a big change happening on the consumer side. Within consumers, you will have to shift your portfolio towards expensive stuff that are proxies to increase in per capita income. You Might Also Like: Markets in a sideways zone and looking at West Asia development, tariff deadline: Dipan Mehta
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Will eased KYC norms revive foreign investment in Indian sovereign bonds?
Mumbai: India's regulatory latitude on compliance and KYC norms for foreign funds buying only sovereign bonds is expected to burnish the allure of an asset class already featuring in global gauges, although an immediate halt to recent outflows would require worldwide rate dynamics and geopolitical risks to settle in favour of the emerging markets. "Considering that the Indian economy is growing and the market is coming up the maturity curve with inclusion in global indices, it is quite logical for making the investing route easier for FPIs," said Divaspati Singh, partner at Khaitan & Co. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Chi phí cấy ghép răng là bao nhiêu vào năm 2025 (kiểm tra giá) Cấy ghép răng | Quảng cáo tìm kiếm Tìm hiểu thêm Undo According to a senior official at a foreign bank, there has been a long-pending demand to ease the operational issues around reporting and KYC. On Wednesday, Sebi approved the proposal to relax certain regulatory requirements for all existing and prospective foreign portfolio investors that exclusively invest in G-Secs. Bonds Corner Powered By Will eased KYC norms revive foreign investment in Indian sovereign bonds? India's relaxation of KYC norms for foreign funds investing solely in sovereign bonds aims to enhance the appeal of this asset class, already included in global indices. While easing operational issues is a welcome step, an immediate reversal of recent outflows hinges on favorable global rate dynamics and reduced geopolitical risks. Experts anticipate long-term benefits for FPI participation in G-secs. India's Larsen & Toubro may explore another ESG bond issue after debut attracts premium, spokesperson says Indian bond yields marginally higher; focus on oil, debt supply Sebi eases norms for foreign investors who only buy government bonds Lending yields set to shrink in FY26 as banks play it safe Browse all Bonds News with Overseas investors have been shedding Indian bonds of late. Easing of the KYC norms are unlikely to lead to an immediate trend reversal. "While this may not see a sudden spurt of inflows, it does make life easier for FPIs participating only in G-secs," Singh said. An overseas banker expects long-term benefits from Sebi's move. Live Events
Mint
13 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Best stock recommendations today: MarketSmith India's top picks for 20 June
On Thursday, the Nifty 50 declined marginally by 0.08% and closed at 24,793 amid a volatile trading session. The market remained under pressure due to hawkish commentary from the US Federal Reserve, which dampened global sentiment by projecting only two rate cuts for 2025. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further weighed on risk appetite. The selling pressure was evident in the market across sectors. Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India: Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd (current price: ₹638.50) Why it's recommended: Capital infusion by promoters, seasonal positive tailwind, EPS growth. Key metrics: P/E: 34.54 | 52-week high: ₹1,064 | Volume: ₹354.22 crore Technical analysis: 50-DMA retake, positive institutional holding Risk factors: Increased raw-material cost and margin pressure, high operational leverage, competitive and regulatory risk. Buy at: ₹638.50 Target price: ₹740 in two to three months Stop loss: ₹687 Also Read: Is the Israel-Iran war a billion-dollar threat to Adani Ports & SEZ? BOSCH Ltd (current price: ₹32,375) Why it's recommended: Strong Q4 performance, expansion in mobility business, growth in consumer business. Key metrics: P/E: 47.42 | 52-week high: ₹39,088 | Volume: ₹68.04 crore Technical analysis: Trending above all key moving averages, bullish continuation pattern. Risk factors: Supply chain, currency risk, competition and regulatory pressure. Buy at: ₹32,375 Target price: ₹36,200 in two to three months Stop loss: ₹30,300 How Nifty 50 performed on 19 June On Thursday, the Nifty 50 opened on a flat note. The index traded in a volatile range throughout the session and closed on a flat to negative note. The intraday price action led to the formation of a narrow-range bearish candle on the daily chart, characterized by a lower-high and lower-low structure, indicating continued weakness in momentum. Except Auto index, all major sectoral and broader market indices ended in the red. Consequently, market breadth deteriorated significantly, with the advance-decline ratio skewed sharply toward decliners at 1:5. Also Read: Is India's premium at risk? As Israel-Iran conflict sparks FPI outflows, valuation debate rages From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 continues to be volatile and has closed below its 21-day moving average, signalling short-term weakness. The index remains confined within a consolidation range over the past five weeks, underscoring the prevailing lack of directional conviction. As of Thursday, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat around the 50–51 mark, while the MACD continues to trend in a negative crossover. This overall setup indicates waning momentum and suggests that a cautious, range-bound outlook may persist in the near term. According to O'Neil's market direction methodology, the market status was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend on 11 June as the Nifty reclaimed its recent high of 25,116. The index continued to trade within a defined sideways range of 24,500–25,200, maintaining a negative bias for the seventh consecutive session. The index has repeatedly failed to sustain above the psychological 25,000 level, highlighting the absence of strong bullish momentum. A decisive breakout above the resistance zone of 25,000-25,200 remains essential to confirm a reversal in trend. Until then, the index is likely to remain in a consolidation. Strong support is in the 24,400-24,500 range. How Nifty Bank performed yesterday On Thursday, the Nifty Bank opened on a flat note but traded with a negative bias throughout the session, eventually closing with a loss of 0.45%. The intraday movement led to the formation of a bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting persistent selling pressure. Notably, the index underperformed the broader benchmark, highlighting ongoing volatility and investor caution within the banking space. Similarly, the broader financial segment remained weak, with the FINNIFTY index declining 0.38% and forming a bearish candle, reinforcing the prevailing sectoral weakness. Also Read: Dull summer casts a cloud on Voltas's air conditioner volumes in Q1 From a technical perspective, the BankNifty index failed to reclaim and sustain above its 21-day moving average, closing below it with a negative bias. The RSI has turned downward and slipped below the 50 mark, reflecting weakening momentum and a lack of buying strength. Additionally, the MACD continues to exhibit a negative crossover on the daily chart, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment and indicating the potential for further downside in the sessions ahead. According to O'Neil's market direction model, Bank Nifty has recently been shifted from an 'Uptrend Under Pressure" to a bullish phase of a 'Confirmed Uptrend". The index closed below its 21-day moving average, signalling continued weakness in the short- to medium-term outlook. Immediate support is near 55,000. Resistance is at 56,000, followed by 57,000. The recent price action indicates the likelihood of sustained range-bound trading within the 55,000–57,000 zone in the near term. A decisive breakout beyond this range will be critical in determining the next directional trend for the index. MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. Trade name: William O'Neil India Pvt. Ltd. (Sebi Registered Research Analyst Registration No.: INH000015543) Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Business Standard
18 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
FMCG, power and consumer durables stocks bore brunt of FPI selling
FPIs were net sellers (buying-selling) of FMCG stocks worth Rs 3,626 crore, power stocks worth Rs 3,120 crore, and consumer durables shares worth Rs 1,893 crore Listen to This Article Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), power and consumer durables stocks bore the brunt of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling in the first two weeks of June. FPIs were net sellers to the tune of ₹5,404 crore on the first fortnight of June. FPIs were net sellers (buying-selling) of FMCG stocks worth ₹3,626 crore, power stocks worth ₹3,120 crore, and consumer durables shares worth ₹1,893 crore. Information technology (₹1,713 crore), and consumer services (₹1,461 crore) were the other sectors where FPIs sold heavily.
