Five games that will decide if Dabo Swinney, Clemson return to College Football Playoff
CLEMSON — Clemson returned to the College Football Playoff in 2024 for the first time in three seasons. The next step will be reaching its first national championship game since the 2019 season.
The Tigers made the CFP after winning the ACC championship against SMU. They earned the No. 12 seed and lost to No. 5 Texas in the first round 38-24.
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Clemson coach Dabo Swinney's team returns a wealth of experienced starters, including quarterback Cade Klubnik, and it added new defensive coordinator Tom Allen for 2025.
ESPN's Football Power Index projects Clemson will win nine or 10 regular-season games, with a 34% chance to win the conference; a 47.3% chance to make the CFP; a 6.8% chance to make the national championship; and a 2.8% chance to win it all.
Here's a look at which games could be the difference between making and missing the College Football Playoff in Swinney's 18th season.
Clemson football schedule 2025: Expected results
Before getting into the key games, here are the expected results for Clemson.
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The Tigers should defeat Troy, a Group of Five program, and Furman, an in-state FCS school. They will face eight conference opponents and should defeat Syracuse, North Carolina, Boston College and Duke. If they lose any of those games, the margin of error becomes slimmer.
A matchup that just missed the cut of being key-game consideration is Clemson vs. Florida State on Nov. 8. The Seminoles should be much improved after their disastrous 2024 season (last in the ACC), but Clemson likely will be able to handle them with relative ease.
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Clemson vs. LSU on Aug. 30
This game (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) is one of the marquee matchups of Week 1. It will be a rematch of the 2020 national championship game, which LSU won 42-25, and a battle between top-10 teams as both feature prominent coaches, Swinney and Brian Kelly, and quarterbacks who could be first-round selections in the 2026 NFL Draft: Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier.
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This game could be a résumé booster if they need to get an at-large bid for the CFP. Each also is looking to earn a Week 1 win for the first time in years. Clemson has not won a season-opening game since 2022; LSU has not won one since 2019. DraftKings Sportsbook has Clemson as a 3-point favorite.
Clemson at Georgia Tech on Sept. 13
The Yellow Jackets are primed for a leap in Brent Key's third full season as a coach. They showed fight despite their 7-6 record in 2024, including their eight-overtime loss to Georgia to close the regular season. They also return sixth-year quarterback Haynes King.
It is the Tigers' first time at Georgia Tech since 2020. They have won the past nine matchups, and this will be both teams' first conference game. The result will set the tone for how it will perform in ACC play.
Clemson vs. SMU on Oct. 18
Clemson will face SMU in a rematch of last year's ACC championship. The Tigers won 34-31 on Nolan Hauser's 56-yard field goal.
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ESPN's FPI projects the Mustangs as the third-best team in the conference in 2025, predicting them to win eight or nine games, with a 10.8% chance to win the ACC. They lost key contributors from their roster but return quarterback Kevin Jennings, who threw for 304 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against Clemson in the ACC title game.
Clemson at Louisville on Nov. 14
Coach Jeff Brohm's team nearly ruined Clemson's CFP chances last season after it beat the Tigers 33-21 for the first time ever. The Cardinals lost quarterback Tyler Shough but added Southern California transfer Miller Moss to replace him and retained experienced players.
This game is on a Friday and is the Tigers' final regular-season ACC matchup (with South Carolina and Furman after that). They are 4-0 in road games at Louisville, including a 30-24 win in their last game in 2021. They must avoid another mishap in their bid to make the conference championship game.
Clemson at South Carolina on Nov. 29
The Palmetto Bowl will take center stage in Columbia, South Carolina. The Gamecocks shocked Clemson last year, winning 17-14 behind quarterback LaNorris Sellers' late-game heroics. He returns for a potential final showdown against Klubnik.
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South Carolina is looking for its first CFP bid, and a win against Clemson will boost its résumé. Still, Clemson has won each of its past five road games at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Derrian Carter covers Clemson athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at dcarter@gannett.com and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DerrianCarter00
This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Clemson football schedule 2025: Key games for Dabo Swinney, CFP hopes
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