Latest news with #Swinney
The Herald Scotland
12 hours ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Will 2026 see people voting against parties - rather than for them?
Mr Swinney's two speeches mark a significant shift in the SNP's political strategy after their defeat in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election at the start of this month. When he and Kate Forbes, his Deputy First Minister and Economy Secretary, took over from Humza Yousaf in May last year, their priority was righting the ship. The SNP had been losing support ever since Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, and under Mr Yousaf's leadership had been overtaken by Scottish Labour, ultimately leading to their heavy defeat in the general election last July. Read More: Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes have succeeded in stabilising their party's position. Since July, support for the SNP has ticked up slightly. But their vote share is still down significantly at around 30-35%, at least 12 points lower than their result at the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections. The Hamilton by-election was a painful reminder of that fact, and that despite the collapse in Labour support since the general election, the SNP are still vulnerable in constituencies across the country. Current polling would see them win as many as 60 seats next May, down only a handful compared to 2021, but many of those seats will be tightly contested and swings similar to what we saw in Hamilton could cost them ten to 15 seats. What has been missing from Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes is a vision for Scotland that reflects public feeling about the state of public services and the Scottish economy and charts a way out of the morass. That's what Mr Swinney sought to provide this week. Whether that vision, such as it is, cuts through and either shores up the SNP's voter base or wins back some of those who supported them in 2021 but did not last year, is up in the air. The SNP have been in government for nearly two decades, and it's showing. They look and feel like a tired government running low on ideas and the political capital necessary to make the sweeping changes that Mr Swinney says are necessary. In the most recent Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, trust in the Scottish Government to work in Scotland's best interests fell below 50% for the first time. Just 23% said they were satisfied with how the Scottish NHS is running, the lowest in the devolution era, and 83% said that standards of living in Scotland are falling, a new high. I suspect that Mr Swinney's claim that the status quo no longer serves the public well will resonate just fine. His challenge is to persuade the public that he and the SNP, having now governed Scotland for so long without delivering the change he is claiming is necessary, are the right people to deliver that change. That will be a much harder case to make. Tying that change to independence makes that case that much harder. I understand why he has had to bring the constitutional question back to the foreground for party management reasons, as disquiet around his apparent failure to make a case for secession burst into the open after Hamilton. But a big part of the reason why so many independence supporters voted Labour last July was the SNP's apparent inability to deliver independence or significant change without independence. The former has not been addressed – the same insurmountable obstacles exist; nothing has changed on that front since the UK Supreme Court ruled that Holyrood could not legislate for a referendum back in November 2022. And the latter cannot be addressed if Mr Swinney is simultaneously arguing that sweeping change is needed, and that independence is a prerequisite for that change. Independence might be a priority for SNP members and legislators, but it is not a priority for the Scottish public. Just one-in-eight Scots think that independence is a top issue facing the country, compared to a majority who prioritise the economy and the NHS, and a third who prioritise education. Even among those who voted SNP last July, just a third prioritise independence. There's a risk that putting independence at the heart of their campaign next May distracts from the rest of the SNP's message and leads to a sense that they are out of touch with the public's priorities. In the end, though, none of that might matter, because there is no single party that voters are rallying to as an alternative to the SNP. While Mr Swinney, Ms Forbes, and their party are hardly popular – just 34% of Scots have a favourable view of Mr Swinney, and 21% of Ms Forbes – Labour are even less so. 27% of Scots have a favourable view of Keir Starmer, and just 20% have a favourable view of Anas Sarwar. While only around one-in-five Scots think the Scottish Government is doing a good job on managing the economy or improving the state of the NHS or Scottish education, just a fifth think that Labour would do a better job – a quarter think that they would do even worse. Mr Swinney may spend the months leading up to next year's Holyrood elections pitching a big vision, and of course he must begin laying the groundwork for the SNP's campaign and start making a compelling argument for why voters should let him hold on to the keys to Bute House. Who knows whether that will cut through and persuade anybody, but I have my doubts. It's far more likely that next year's election will be defined by dissatisfaction with both the Scottish and UK Governments, and distrust of politicians generally, with voters voting against parties and politicians they dislike most rather than for those they like. Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @
The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Does a civil service shake-up loom in the £1bn crackdown?
She was not someone who tolerated unwise spending by family members or by her employer. I can't remember exactly what the issues were that so exercised her in her office many years ago, but it's clear concerns surrounding the inefficient use of public resources persist to this day. READ MORE: Scottish Government confirm plan cut to public sector 'waste' by £1bn a year STUC leader in warning to Swinney ahead of £1bn crackdown on public sector 'waste' SNP ministers to unveil £1 billion crackdown on public sector 'waste' What's behind the Scottish Government drive to cut public sector 'waste'? It's a matter that John Swinney identified back in 2011 setting up the Commission on the Future Delivery of Public Services in Scotland, chaired by Dr Campbell Christie, which had been tasked with examining the long-term challenges facing public services—including budget pressures, demographic change, rising demand and persistent inequalities. The Commission's report called for preventative and collaborative approaches to address systemic challenges, prioritising prevention to reduce long-term costs, enhancing performance through technology, and closer working across sectors. In a speech on Monday, Mr Swinney referred to the creation of Police Scotland, where the country's eight police forces were amalgamated into one organisation, as one of the "key successes" from the Christie report noting the restructure had led to over £200m a year in savings. Speaking in Holyrood today public finance minister Ivan McKee said a further £280m in efficiencies savings had been made through other changes such as cutting down on duplication and through the greater use of technology. But his aim is to save a further £720m to reach a target of £1bn by 2029/30. It's a huge ambition and one likely to require significant changes, ones well beyond cutting down on duplication and greater use of AI and review of the running of costly its buildings and estates. The elephant in the room is of course the number of public bodies and the number of people they employ. There are currently 130 quangos, and 55 civil service directorates in the Scottish Government covering a wide range of responsibilities, including one for the constitution, another for the EU, multiple ones relating to health, energy and climate, the environment. The list goes on. The obvious question is does Scotland need 55 civil service directorates and 130 quangos? It's significant I think that both Mr Swinney and Mr McKee have been talking up the reorganisation of Police Scotland and the amount of money the restructure has saved - £200m a year. Against such a backdrop it would be no huge surprise if major restructures were on the cards for other organisations. But such major changes could well lead to rows with the trade unions - with the STUC already issuing a warning to the government about its reforms. So while Mr McKee has laid out his initial plans today, he and his colleagues may well be putting off the harder spending and restructuring decisions until after May 2026 election.
The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Swinney: Exclusions could push pupils into criminality
READ MORE Mr Findlay told MSPs the guidance was overly bureaucratic and would tie the hands of teachers trying to deal with serious disruption and violence in classrooms. 'It is exactly what you might expect from this ineffective Government,' he said. 'Forty-nine pages of tedious, hand-wringing nonsense, complicated and confusing.' The Conservative leader mocked some of the suggested interventions, including giving violent pupils laminated cards to reflect on their behaviour and letting disruptive pupils leave class two minutes early. He said: 'That sounds like a reward rather than a punishment.' Challenging the First Minister directly, Mr Findlay asked: 'Will John Swinney end the barrage of guidance and please empower teachers to take a stricter approach?' But Mr Swinney accused Mr Findlay of misrepresenting the document and ignoring expert advice. 'I do not think for a moment that Mr Findlay's presentation of the guidance is in any way, shape or form representative of what is actually there,' he said. He told Parliament the guidance aimed to help schools de-escalate situations and keep young people engaged in education. 'If young people are unable to participate in their education, they are unlikely to go on to good outcomes in our society, and we will simply repeat the difficulties that we have seen for many years of young people who do not go on to positive destinations,' he said. Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay during First Minister's Questions (Image: Jane Barlow/PA) Mr Findlay argued that the SNP's 'soft-touch' approach was failing teachers and putting safety at risk. 'He virtually stopped exclusions, which is causing discipline to collapse. He turned teachers into social workers. He sent a dangerous message to disruptive pupils that they can get away with it,' he said. 'We need a tougher approach not laminated cards and inclusive chats. If pupils are violent or serially disruptive, we should exclude them.' Mr Swinney pushed back, citing the most recent data. 'Mr Findlay said that I had stopped exclusions in Scottish education, but I have just told Parliament that there were 11,676 exclusions in 2022–23,' he said. 'That statement is false.' The First Minister said exclusions could lead pupils to criminality. 'If a young person is excluded from school, they are not in the safe environment of school,' he said. 'They are therefore likely to be out on the streets and potentially able to become involved in some of the criminal activity that Mr Findlay has put to me, in the past fortnight at First Minister's Questions, as being a risk to which young people are exposed. 'I simply point out to Parliament the inherent contradiction in what has been put to me. Two weeks ago, Mr Findlay said that we must make sure that young people are not exposed to criminal activity and, today, he is demanding that we exclude more young people from schools and put them at risk of being exposed to that criminal activity.' Mr Swinney said the new guidance reflected input from education professionals and violence reduction experts, and reaffirmed that exclusion remained part of a school's toolkit, but only when other options had been exhausted. 'The guidance is crystal clear that exclusions are part of the approach that can be taken, but I am making it clear today that exclusions can have negative consequences for young people,' he said. READ MORE Mr Findlay was unconvinced. 'People in the real world know how to sort out the problem,' he said. 'We believe in exclusions for violence because they protect staff and pupils and because they work.' He accused Mr Swinney of creating a classroom culture that discouraged discipline and accountability. 'He fundamentally changed the classroom culture, and that is now harming children and their education,' he said. The First Minister insisted his approach was rooted in both evidence and compassion. 'What we are getting from Russell Findlay today is a demonisation of young people and a failure to address the mechanisms and interventions required to solve a difficult issue in our society,' he said. 'It is simplistic nonsense, and Parliament should ignore it.'
The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Swinney defends universal winter fuel payment U-turn
On Wednesday, the Scottish Government announced that only pensioners with an income of less than £35,000 would receive financial help. While those with higher incomes will still receive the payment, they will be required to repay the money via their tax return or PAYE. Age Scotland estimates that around 160,000 households will lose out. READ MORE Less well-off pensioners will receive £203.40 if they are under 80, and £305.10 if they are older — marginally higher amounts than the £200 and £300 paid in England and Wales. Asked about the decision in Holyrood on Thursday, the First Minister said: 'What we have done is we have taken an approach which reflects the system that we believe will make the greatest impact on tackling the impact of fuel costs on older people within our society. 'That has resulted in us taking the steps that we have set out to make sure that we can target and focus the resources that are available to us and to enable us to utilise the resources that are under the control of the Scottish Government as effectively as we can to meet our wider priorities within the public works.' The announcement came only weeks after Mr Swinney argued that the winter fuel payment should be restored to 'all pensioner households'. Speaking ahead of a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer on 23 May, he called for a 'national mission' to raise living standards and a 'restoration' of the benefit 'so all pensioners get a payment'. Asked about the U-turn, Mr Swinney said: 'Since then, the UK Government has changed its position, and it has set out an approach which has got financial implications for the Scottish Government, and we have responded accordingly.' READ MORE The decision to originally means-test the Winter Fuel Payment — stripping it from around 10 million better-off pensioners — was one of the new Labour Government's first and most controversial policies. At the time, Chancellor Rachel Reeves justified it as a necessary 'hard choice' to save about £1.5 billion a year. With the Winter Fuel Payment being devolved, that prompted the Scottish Government to announce its own benefit, the Pension Age Winter Heating Payment. Those on certain means-tested benefits were due to receive £200, or £300 for over-80s, while all other pensioner households would receive a flat £100. Last week, the Chancellor confirmed that around three-quarters of pensioners in England and Wales — those on incomes up to £35,000 — would again receive a payment of £200, or £300 if they are over 80, from this winter. The U-turn by the Treasury meant that thousands of Scottish pensioner households not on Pension Credit but with a modest income were in line for just £100 — whereas if they lived in England or Wales, they would get £200 or £300 if over 80. In a speech on Monday, the First Minister confirmed the Scottish Government's benefit would at least match that proposed by the UK Government.
Daily Record
a day ago
- Business
- Daily Record
John Swinney did 'nothing' to save bus maker Alexander Dennis, says Anas Sarwar
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said the First Minister's claims that he found out about the issues facing the firm only weeks ago were 'not true'. John Swinney has been accused of doing 'nothing' to save jobs at bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis despite being warned by the company a year ago that it could move operations to England. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said the First Minister's claims that he found out about the issues facing the firm only weeks ago were 'not true'. Up to 400 jobs have been put at risk after the manufacturer announced plans to move operations in Falkirk and Larbert to a single site in Scarborough in North Yorkshire. During FMQs Sarwar said: 'Last week, John Swinney claimed that he became aware of issues facing Alexander Dennis a few weeks ago and was doing what he could to help the company. 'But that is not true. John Swinney received a letter almost a year ago directly from the company setting out how his decision to buy buses from China, instead of from Scotland, was putting the company and jobs at risk. 'He did nothing for the skilled workforce. But, last week, as usual, he tried to find someone else to blame for his own failure by talking about UK procurement laws, laws that did not stop Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from buying Scottish buses, but somehow stops this SNP Scottish Government. 'Since that warning almost a year ago, how many buses has the SNP Government ordered from Scottish companies?' Sarwar said that since the letter in August, the Scottish Government had ordered zero buses from the company as he accused Swinney of 'waffle'. The Scottish Labour leader previously said Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham had ordered nearly five times the number of buses from Alexander Dennis than the Scottish Government. Swinney dismissed that suggestion, saying 360 vehicles had been secured through Scottish Government funding programmes, compared to the 160 orders for Manchester. Swinney acknowledged the letter which he said was followed by a meeting in September. 'As a consequence of that interaction, we established work for Scottish Enterprise with the company to support the company in securing its future,' he said. 'That work was taken forward as a consequence of that dialogue, and obviously, the company then contacted us in the course of the past few weeks with their more immediate situation.' He said Alexander Dennis had 'expressed their appreciation' with Scottish Government support, including £58 million for zero emission buses. He added that discussions with the company to save the jobs are ongoing.
