Latest news with #projections
New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Five bats fantasy baseball managers can actually drop, based on projections
If you stick closely to projections (as I do) and play a lot of keeper leagues (as I do), you take the long view on hitters most of the time. They'll come back around and play to the talent levels they've shown before, of course, why wouldn't they? Projections look at the sum of a player and put together the good times and the bad times and produce the most likely outcomes, and usually, those are about as rosterable as they were when you acquired the player. Advertisement But sometimes even the projections move enough on a player that we should recalibrate our feelings. If you've lost the projection systems, you've lost your last defender. To see which players have seen their projections move the most, I took preseason OOPSY projections from Jordan Rosenblum and compared them to his rest-of-season projections. Here are the 15 players who have seen their projections move downward the most compared to preseason expectations. I've listed them along with their Yahoo roster rates. There are already some obvious flaws with this approach. There are the hitters who might have taken a haircut but are still projected among the best hitters in the game, like Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Gunnar Henderson. Nobody is advocating dropping these players. League average OPS is .712, and they're all 100-plus points clear of that, even with their reduced projections. There are also hitters here who will provide fantasy value with their legs, as Matt McLain, Michael Harris II, and, to a lesser extent, Kristian Campbell and Spencer Steer are non-zeroes on the basepaths. And then there are players who nobody had rostered anyway, like Joey Ortiz. Ahem. So let's try this another way. Which hitters have seen their OPS projections drop at least 10 points, but are sorted by the worst OPS projections (minimum 250 projected plate appearances)? Surely these players are not great, and maybe also on the precipice of losing their jobs? Nobody on this list was projected to have a league average OPS, and then they played so poorly that they saw their projections drop further. Speed once again is a complicating factor, but it's still instructive to note that while Parker Meadows has the defensive chops to keep his job despite poor OPS projections, the Miami Marlins just moved Xavier Edwards to second base. He's a sell in keeper formats if he has any value, because legs can only take a player so far. The next problem is that once you scan over to the roster levels, you'll see that nobody was really all-in on these players anyway, with a notable exception or two. Advertisement We still have the stolen base problem. Let's try one last way. Here are the players who have lost the most projected fantasy value since the preseason, using OOPSY in the FanGraphs auction calculator with 15-team Roto 5×5 settings. I've removed players who are currently in the minors or suffering from long-term injury, or who were projected for negative value to begin the season, in order to make this list more useful. This once again has some less-than-useful information. Nobody is still holding on to Orlando Arcia at this point since he lost his starting job and is a utility player, and ownership levels in a lot of the other categories are pretty low. Nobody is dropping Yordan Alvarez despite the change in projected outcomes. But there are also some interesting names on here for those who were holding out hope for players like Brandon Marsh and Lane Thomas — if they are basically underwater in 15-teamers with five outfielders, by sober projections, then there's no reason to keep holding them for the future in most leagues. Let's highlight five bats who have shown up on a lot of these lists but aren't slam-dunk drops at first glance. Recently, Adames has performed a little better, and that coincides with his rolling swing speed finally poking about the 75th percentile for the first time this season. But it's a long swing, and if you judge him instead by swing acceleration (which considers contact point), he just nudged above the 10th percentile. The thing is, we've seen this from Adames before, so it's not too surprising. Many of his numbers seem right in line with what he did in 2023, when he had a .217 average and hit 24 homers (except worse in the power department, really). That year, he was the 20th-best shortstop when all was said and done. Even if he picks it up and ends up near those numbers, the stolen bases aren't going to be there like last year, and maybe there's someone out there who can be better than 20th for you at the position? He's still a $3 player in 12-team leagues with a middle infield slot, according to OOPSY rest-of-season projections, but that's droppable territory if you see something better out there. Of the players highlighted here, McLain is the toughest drop for a couple of reasons, though. First, second base is a really tough position this year. It's only produced six players who would be above-replacement players without the positional adjustment (shortstop has 16), and the lesser-rostered, better-projected second basemen ahead of McLain (Jonathan India, Luis Garcia Jr.) aren't slam-dunk decisions. Second, he's stealing bases and likely to finish the season with at least a shot at a 20-20 season. But the batting average isn't going to be great, and the power, which wasn't supported fully by his batted-ball stats, has not returned (and wasn't helped by a loss of bat speed). If the steals won't mean that much to you, McLain could be a drop in shallower leagues. Advertisement Everything has gone badly for Santander in Toronto. The strikeout rate went up (career-worst), the fly-ball rate went down, the hard-hit rate went down (five-year low), as did his barrel rate (career-worst) and max exit velocity (career-worst). His bat has lost over a mile per hour of bat speed (to the point that it's almost average from the left side), and his swing has gotten flatter in terms of tilt, so he's just pulling balls on the ground now. Jorge Soler, who is rostered in a third of the leagues as Santander, is projected to be better. In the deepest leagues, you just have to hold and hope, but projections have him under $3 going forward in 15-team leagues with players like Alec Burleson and the returning Luke Raley ranked higher. You probably have a better option on your wire versus waiting for him to get healthy. Steer's lack of bat speed this year can indeed be most likely attributed to his spring injury to the shoulder, but it's also true that there's no evidence in his rolling swing speed graphs that the joint is feeling any better in recent days. Keeper league players have a harder decision — Steer could use a full healthy offseason, most likely, and any return of bat speed could make him a viable 20-10 guy again — but in leagues playing just for 2025, the four stolen bases aren't enough to hang around for. Christian Encarnacion-Strand projects better and is out there in nearly three-quarters of Yahoo leagues, and if you need some stolen bases, Jake Cronenworth is rostered in fewer leagues and projects better. There are better options than Steer right now in all but the deepest leagues. In 12-team leagues with a middle infielder slot, OOPSY projects Story to be below replacement, which might be surprising at first. He has double-digit homers and steals and has had his moments this year. But the real tragedy of leaving Coors Field behind is that his batting average is no longer buoyed by altitude. Now he strikes out 30 percent of the time and has the batting average to match. It's a bit like McLain — how much batting average do you want to pay for your 20/20 season — but at a position where there are more options. Even if you want power and speed, Masyn Winn and Ezequiel Tovar might be able to help you without hurting in batting average as much. Looking at roster rates, though, Story has probably already been dropped in most leagues where he should have been, and is a tentative hold in the deepest leagues. (Photo of Willy Adames: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
New York Times
2 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy football 2025 cheat sheet generator: Customizable rankings and projections tool
Welcome! It's good to see you again (or nice to meet you, new readers). You have found the ultimate tool for your 2025 fantasy football quest, a fully customizable cheat sheet generator that allows you to input your league rules and settings — and even change stats and projections — to create a set of rankings and projections unique to your fantasy football needs. Advertisement I only humbly ask that you read the instructions. This is a very deep (and fun) tool, and once you learn it, it's strikingly easy to use. (You can project Jaxson Dart to start 17 games and throw for 4,500 yards … if you are a bit cuckoo, and not for Cocoa Puffs). If you're new to the cheat sheet, download it using the link and read on for detailed guidance and definitions. If you're familiar with the sheet, dive on in. If you don't want to get your hands dirty, in the default view, you'll find player projections grouped by both position and team, rankings based on a players' value over a replacement level fantasy starter at their position, as well as my rankings ahead of training camp, which will be updated until the start of the 2025 season. When you first open the file, you'll see a more detailed set of instructions for customization. Behind that, you'll find a series of projections and rankings you can navigate via the tabs at the bottom left of the sheet. If you don't touch any of the league settings, you will get rankings and projections based on the following: Also, the scoring categories you see are the only ones I project. If you have odd bonuses or extra categories like first downs, there isn't a way to account for those. At the bottom left of the sheet, you will see tabs with the following labels: Instructions: Guess what you'll find here? Settings: Customizable league setting values POS Ranks: Players at QB, RB, WR, TE and D/ST ranked by their projected fantasy points. (No kickers. Never kickers.) These will autosort with any changes to player projections. (More on that below.) OVR & VORP: Rankings based on a player's value over a replacement-level player — defined as a starter with some bench players due to Flex variance at RB and WR — at their position. These are sorted individually by position (orange), overall (blue), and by WR/TEs for leagues that lump those positions together (yellow). Advertisement Ranks w PROJ: Rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs accompanied by their projected statistics. These will also automatically update with changes to player projections. Jake Ranks: Rankings based on my preseason assessments, so you will see players with lower projected point totals ranked above players with higher projections. That is a feature of how I'm valuing the draft pool, not a bug. For example, I might be willing to gamble on an injured player missing the first few weeks over a player who is less productive on a per-game basis. The auction values and projected points re-adjust when you manually adjust player projections, but the rankings do not because, well, those are my rankings, and you can't tell me what to do. I pour milk into my bowl before the cereal, and you can't change that either. But you can ask questions in the comments related to your changes. After that, you'll see tabs for every NFL team, followed by DST for team defenses. The yellow fields in the DST sheet allow users to manually enter stats you might use that I don't project. As you may have guessed, you'll find league scoring and other settings on the second tab, aptly labeled 'Settings.' Simply fine-tune those numbers to match your league's and generate custom-tailored projections and rankings. If that's all you're looking for, you can stop here. But if you want to adjust individual player projections, read on because the fun is just getting started. If you disagree with how a particular player is projected to perform — think their target share is too high or their TD rate too low? — you can adjust the projections on an even more granular level. Note: You can only adjust numbers in fields shaded yellow. If you change any of the cells in white, you will break the sheet. Advertisement To make changes to player stats or projections, navigate to the individual team pages. In other words, if you want to change Ashton Jeanty's projections, you have to go to the Las Vegas Raiders tab and tweak them there. You cannot input a new fantasy points total on the Rankings tab. You'll break the sheet. Don't break the sheet. On the team pages, scroll right until you see the last of the columns that start with the word 'Edit,' so you can see everything. (Those begin in column AE and go all the way to column AH.) You can adjust any of the yellow cells on a team page to tweak a player's overall projected output based on their workload and productivity. Simply click on a yellow cell and adjust to your wishes. There are some caveats that I'll address later, but that's essentially how the customization works. You cannot change Jeanty's rushing yards or rushing attempts directly in the cells — if you click on that cell, you'll see a formula instead of a raw number because everything is connected to make the sorting and ranking work. If you want to change Jeanty's rushing yards, you'll have to tweak a few things in the formula that creates 'rushing yards' by adjusting some of the yellow cells (which is all intuitive and should make sense): Changes in the following fields will auto-calculate and update the sheet. However, unless you're convinced something needs a major change, you can skip adjusting these fields, as it causes a domino effect on team numbers (D-J, Rows 28-39), and you'll be required to change numbers for other players to compensate for the original change. The next set of editable fields is fun, and you're encouraged to play with them. Do you think Shedeur Sanders starts 15 games? Will Kyren Williams get benched and only see 25% of the rushes this year? You can change any of these fields and see how it affects other players, team numbers, ranks and more. When you adjust the default projections, you will see changes to that player's projected statistics on the team page, as well as to their projected fantasy points and rankings on the POS Ranks, OVR & VORP and Ranks w Proj tabs. Check out the red 'TOT SHR' box in column AF (bottom right of the image above). You want that number to be under 100% and not red. You can leave it red, and Column W will still adjust, but the balance won't provide an accurate representation. As a result, the projection, ranking and assigned dollar value for that player may be adjusted incorrectly relative to other players. Advertisement Basically, you can't have more than 100% of a team's rushes (or receptions, or whatever stat you're messing with). You may want your player to give you 110%, but alas, he cannot, because math. That's all this is doing. Columns AA and AC will calculate to 98% because there will always be situations when players not listed on this sheet account for random touches (e.g., a team elevates a player from the practice squad or special teams to fill in for an injured RB one week). Rows 28, 32 and 35 are team numbers (as noted). Tweaking those will move the positional projections accordingly by elevating or lowering the team's playcalling and overall projected production. If you think Arizona Cardinals will pass 65% of the time and increase that cell, the RUSH% will automatically adjust down to 35% (again, because we have to keep it 100). So the team's running backs, wide receivers and quarterbacks will move down accordingly. Any red cells likely indicate that something is amiss and are likely due to user tweaks made to individual player statistics. That's pretty much it. As noted at the outset, if you have any questions or concerns, drop them below in the comments. You can also use Ctrl+F to see if your question has already been answered, but I'm here to help! And one more time: (Top photo of Ja'Marr Chase: Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
Wall Street Journal
3 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Fed Cuts GDP Growth Forecast for 2025, Sees Higher Inflation
Federal Reserve officials cut their projections for U.S. economic growth this year and raised their outlook for inflation in their latest economic projections out Wednesday. They now expect GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year. That's down from a 1.7% forecast at their March meeting and 2.5% GDP growth in 2024. Fed officials also expect inflation to be hotter at the end of 2025 than previously estimated: 3% compared with a forecast of 2.7% three months ago.
New York Times
19-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Explaining THE BAT X projections: Using advanced metrics for fantasy baseball and betting
THE BAT X is a sophisticated baseball projection system I have developed over the past 15+ years using advanced statistical techniques and methodology. I've worked with and learned from several analysts, many of whom are now working or making decisions in front offices, meaning this system uses the types of techniques used by actual MLB teams. Advertisement It offers a comprehensive, data-rich approach to projecting baseball performance. It is grounded in statistical rigor and aligned with professional analytical practices. It is regularly found to be the most accurate projection system available and has proven successful in my leagues and for many others. Projections like those from THE BAT X are not definitive predictions; they represent the weighted average of all possible outcomes. They are informed estimates based on a multitude of factors. A key concept here is regression to the mean: Players performing above their typical level are expected to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This principle helps prevent overreactions to short-term performance spikes or slumps. While we may want to believe the young player who gets off to a strong start is completely for real (and he certainly could be), history tells us the more likely outcome is he gets worse going forward. THE BAT X uses a wide range of metrics, including advanced Statcast metrics like barrels and exit velocity, to help inform its projections. It also considers a wide range of contextual factors in addition to player talent indicators, such as ballpark effects, weather conditions, umpire tendencies, defensive alignments and a whole lot more, to provide a comprehensive view of the variables influencing player performance over any given time. THE BAT X isn't just comprehensive — it's consistently among the most accurate projection systems in the industry. In FantasyPros' 2024 accuracy competition, which evaluated over a dozen projection systems based on real-life player results, THE BAT X ranked as the single most accurate original projection system for the fifth straight year. No projection system is perfect and all will have 'misses,' but THE BAT X is as accurate as they come. (Photo by Al Bello / Getty Images)
New York Times
12-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Fade Jacob Wilson, target Dylan Cease
Welcome to The Athletic's weekly fantasy baseball cheat sheet. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years, The Athletic has developed a weekly reference to help fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. This week's iteration suggests adding Royce Lewis and Brenton Doyle, fading Jacob Wilson and trading for slow-starting Gunnar Henderson. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections based on a 12-team, mixed league format. For first-time readers, we compare year-to-date value (expressed as dollars, where $0 would represent a replacement-level player) against their projected rest-of-season value. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know. Advertisement The Twins' Royce Lewis, recently off the injured list, provides an instructive example. While the projections expect a massive surge in value, that change is in part because Lewis has been dreadful to this point, so keep this in context. Lewis has a .111 batting average in 19 plate appearances, but the former first-round draft pick did have a solid 2023 with a .309 average and .921 OPS in 239 plate appearances before regressing in 2024. While Lewis could be a cheap source of power (projecting somewhere in the mid-to-high teens for HRs in 2025), his expected average this year is .209. All of this to point out that while THE BAT X projects his value will rise, it's only expected to reach $5.80. This makes him a speculative addition, but given no major projection system sees him topping 95 games this season, he's probably not a plug-and-play, everyday solution. Of the players on this list, Rockies OF Brenton Doyle, who has been in a slump lately, has the highest rest-of-season value at $19.90. On the pitching side, the Diamondbacks' Eduardo Rodriguez has gone 1-3 with a 6.86 ERA, but his expected ERA is 4.52 — still nothing to write home about, but more in line with his previous seasons. His cutter, sinker, and slider are performing much better than last year, while his changeup and four-seamer are suffering. He may never be above average, but THE BAT X projects his value will improve and could be a worth a spot start if there's a favorable matchup. Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, whose current value is one of only two players with a positive value, has the highest rest-of-season grade. He has a 2.78 ERA with a respectable 23.4 strikeout percentage and is projected to improve. He's someone to target right away. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. A's shortstop Jacob Wilson has a year-to-date value of $23.40 but a projected rest-of-season value of -$1.60. He's hitting .348, and his xBA is .317 (in the 97th percentile). It's not time to drop him yet, but he finished last year with a .250 average in 103 plate appearances as a rookie. Watch closely for regression. The following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections, according to THE BAT X projection system. These suggestions are based on differentials. You're not going to want to fade the Yankees' current ace, Max Fried, or the Astros' Hunter Brown, who have rest-of-season values above $20, but you could look to shop the Rangers' Tyler Mahle, Kodai Senga of the Mets or the Yanks' Carlos Rodon before they cool off, as THE BAT X projects. Robbie Ray, in San Francisco, or Seth Lugo, of the Royals, who have current values of $10.20 and $9.50, respectively, but rest-of-season values in the negative, could be fade candidates in shallower leagues with other high-performing pitchers available. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Gunnar Henderson stands out as a player to target in trades. He's hitting .264 with an xBA that's similar, but his hard-hit percentage of 56.0 is in the 95th percentile, and his bat speed is in the 9oth percentile. His OPS is below .800 for the first time since 2022, when he had only 132 plate appearances, but we know what he's capable of. THE BAT X thinks he'll improve and you may be able to get him at a relative bargain if his current manager isn't as convinced he'll come around. On the pitching side, the Braves' Chris Sale makes the list again but you can see he's already showing improvement, with his value rising to -9.90 from -17.10 last week. No one will trade Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but a rest-of-season value of $46.60 is absurd, so good for you if you have him on your team. You may be able to get Padres starter Dylan Cease, who's 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA, significantly underperforming preseason expectations. His expected ERA is only 4.05, but his fastball velocity is in the 86th percentile, and his Whiff% of 30.4 is in the 81st percentile. His K% of 27 is solid. He is getting hit pretty hard, but if he can bring his 9.6 BB% down, he could improve dramatically, as THE BAT X suggests. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups. Alex Verdugo, Sal Frelick and Javier Sanoja top the list, but Marcell Ozuna, James Wood and Jackson Chourio also have favorable matchups with higher fantasy and underlying values. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Advertisement Leody Taveras stands out on this list, as his xwOBA is only .222. He's only batting .237 now and is not above the 36th percentile in any Statcast batting category. He's an excellent fielder with good baserunning value (seven stolen bases so far), but he's unlikely to improve at the plate. He's heavily available on waivers — leave him there. Hard-hitting catchers aren't readily available, so Hunter Goodman has provided good value at the position, but regression is expected. He's hitting .288, but his xBA is only .236. He could be someone to consider trading if you have another high-performing catcher on your roster, or you could flip him for a catcher with better projections. If you need a catcher, and he's on waivers, grab him with caution. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman was projected to have a phenomenal season and hasn't met expectations. He's only batting .203, but his xBA is .268, and he's in the 95th percentile or above in Whiff%, Chase%, and Squared-Up%. His barrels are average, and his HH% is low, but he's also had bad luck. Hold him, grab him or trade for him if you can. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. It's no surprise that the Dodgers top this list, but the Cincinnati Reds face the White Sox and Guardians, so Elly De La Cruz and company could see better weeks. Maybe Matt McLain, who is batting .165 with a Barrel% in the 69th percentile and a HardHit% in the 73rd, could begin to recover some value. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Tarik Skubal, which is no surprise. But here's Dylan Cease again (see above). This list is full of top-tier pitchers who happen to be projected for two starts. I'd be surprised if anyone left these pitchers on the bench this week. Colin Rea, who has the highest projected ERA on this list, has a 2.43 ERA this season and faces the Marlins and White Sox. He could outplay even these projections. THE BAT X has Carlos Rodon as the only top pitcher to consider benching, as he faces the Mets. But, Corbin Burnes was on the list last week and ended up with a win against the Dodgers. Rodon hasn't pitched as well as Burnes, though, and the Mets are a formidable opponent, so tread lightly. Based on matchups, the Cubs' bullpen could provide tremendous value against the Marlins and White Sox. Gavin Hollowell and Daniel Palencia both have sub-2.00 ERAs. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Dylan Cease: Al Bello / Getty Images)
