Explaining THE BAT X projections: Using advanced metrics for fantasy baseball and betting
THE BAT X is a sophisticated baseball projection system I have developed over the past 15+ years using advanced statistical techniques and methodology. I've worked with and learned from several analysts, many of whom are now working or making decisions in front offices, meaning this system uses the types of techniques used by actual MLB teams.
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It offers a comprehensive, data-rich approach to projecting baseball performance. It is grounded in statistical rigor and aligned with professional analytical practices. It is regularly found to be the most accurate projection system available and has proven successful in my leagues and for many others.
Projections like those from THE BAT X are not definitive predictions; they represent the weighted average of all possible outcomes. They are informed estimates based on a multitude of factors. A key concept here is regression to the mean: Players performing above their typical level are expected to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This principle helps prevent overreactions to short-term performance spikes or slumps. While we may want to believe the young player who gets off to a strong start is completely for real (and he certainly could be), history tells us the more likely outcome is he gets worse going forward.
THE BAT X uses a wide range of metrics, including advanced Statcast metrics like barrels and exit velocity, to help inform its projections. It also considers a wide range of contextual factors in addition to player talent indicators, such as ballpark effects, weather conditions, umpire tendencies, defensive alignments and a whole lot more, to provide a comprehensive view of the variables influencing player performance over any given time.
THE BAT X isn't just comprehensive — it's consistently among the most accurate projection systems in the industry. In FantasyPros' 2024 accuracy competition, which evaluated over a dozen projection systems based on real-life player results, THE BAT X ranked as the single most accurate original projection system for the fifth straight year. No projection system is perfect and all will have 'misses,' but THE BAT X is as accurate as they come.
(Photo by Al Bello / Getty Images)
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Diamondbacks 5, Rockies 3: ‘A' Bullpen Sighting!
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The Snakes were able to get runners on, sure, but they just couldn't get a big knock to give the team some breathing room for when the bullpen would inevitably have to come in and trade outs for hopefully as few runs as possible. On the pitching side, Merrill started the game off just as wobbly as his counterpart, matching him 3-3 in runs allowed after the first 3 innings. Merrill was able to right the ship, though, and had his pitch count at 86 when it came time for him to step back out on the mound in the 7th inning. The GDT spidey-senses were tingling with his return to the mound in the 7th, and not without reason. Coming into tonight, Merrill has logged 3.1 innings pitched in 7th innings this year and he owns a 13.50 ERA in them! This 7th inning appeared to be going the same direction as those others when he let the first two Rockies reach and he was pulled in favor of Ryan Thompson. With that bit of news, I was more than prepared to be writing an obituary for tonight's recap, with time of death clocking in around the bottom of the 7th. I was pleasantly surprised then when Ryan Thompson recorded this first out with a stupendous pickoff move to second base! Now with only 2 outs to get and no runner in scoring position, Thompson set to work retiring the only 2 batters he needed to face to get out of the 7th inning and preserve our 2-run lead (and lower Merrill's 7th inning ERA, to boot). Jalen Beeks only needed 7 pitches for his 3 outs in the 8th and Shelby Miller struck out the side in absolutely dominant fashion after the first hitter reached second on an infield single and throwing error by Ildemaro Vargas. Coors Field doesn't seem to be the place you'd expect to go for your bullpen to turn things around, but this is now two straight nights of excellent relief pitching at the hitter's haven in Denver. Hopefully, this is the start of a trend! Thanks again to Dano for being willing to swap recap nights with me! Win Probability and Box Score Courtesy FanGraphs Outside the Box Score Geraldo Perdomo followed up Ketel's missile-like leadoff double with a rogue bunt that luckily resulted in no outs. He popped the bunt straight up, but by some miracle it landed just outside the glove webbing of the charging pitcher and stopped dead in the grass like an approach shot at the US Open. Better to be lucky than good in this case, Domo! The Snakes first inning at bat left a bit to be desired. They did score a run, but after the first three hitters reached base, loading the bases for Mr. 300, I was expecting a bit more than a single run in that inning. Sac Fly, shallow fly out and ground out to third got the Rockies out of the inning with minimal damage. Merrill Kelly only let the first two Colorado batters reach in the first before retiring the next 3 in a row, besting his Colorado counterpart, but Kelly's 2 hurt twice as bad Colorado's opening 3, as both runners came home to score on a bomb to the left field seats. Merrill needed 23 pitches to retire the side. Tim Tawa had a big stolen base in the second inning that led to him scoring the tying run. With 1 out, he easily stole second. After Aramis Garcia struck out, Ketel launched another missile to the warning track, this time in left center instead of straight away center, and it one-hopped the wall for a ground rule double. If Tawa hadn't stole second, he would have been stuck at third. Merrill came out for the bottom of the third with a 3-2 lead and that lead vanished on a trio of batted balls that touched infielder's gloves. 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