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First Post
5 days ago
- First Post
Air India plane crash: Is flying risky business?
Catastrophic events such as the Air India crash affect us deeply. The thought of going down in an aircraft may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overemphasis on the risks. However, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport read more Members of Indian Army's engineering arm prepare to remove the wreckage of an Air India aircraft, bound for London's Gatwick Airport, which crashed during take-off from an airport in Ahmedabad, India. Reuters On Thursday afternoon, an Air India passenger plane bound for London crashed shortly after takeoff from the Indian city of Ahmedabad. There were reportedly 242 people onboard, including two pilots and 10 cabin crew. The most up-to-date reports indicate the death toll , including people on the ground. Miraculously, one passenger – British national Vishwashkumar Ramesh – survived the crash. Thankfully, catastrophic plane crashes such as this are very rare. But seeing news of such a horrific event is traumatic, particularly for people who may have a fear of flying or are due to travel on a plane soon. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If you're feeling anxious following this distressing news, it's understandable. But here are some things worth considering when you're thinking about the risk of plane travel. Dangers of flying One of the ways to make sense of risks, especially really small ones, is to put them into context. Although there are various ways to do this, we can first look to figures that tell us the risk of dying in a plane crash per passenger who boards a plane. Arnold Barnett, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calculated that in 2018–22, this figure was one in 13.7 million. By any reckoning, this is an incredibly small risk. And there's a clear trend of air travel getting safer every decade. Barnett's calculations suggest that between 2007 and 2017, the risk was one per 7.9 million. We can also compare the risks of dying in a plane crash with those of dying in a car accident. Although estimates of motor vehicle fatalities vary depending on how you do the calculations and where you are in the world, flying has been estimated to be more than 100 times safer than driving. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The tail of the Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner plane that crashed is seen stuck on a building after the incident in Ahmedabad. Reuters Evolution has skewed our perception of risks The risk of being involved in a plane crash is extremely small. But for a variety of reasons, we often perceive it to be greater than it is. First, there are well-known limitations in how we intuitively estimate risk. Our responses to risk (and many other things) are often shaped far more by emotion and instinct than by logic. As psychologist Daniel Kahneman explains in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, much of our thinking about risk is driven by intuitive, automatic processes rather than careful reasoning. Notably, our brains evolved to pay attention to threats that are striking or memorable. The risks we faced in primitive times were large, immediate and tangible threats to life. Conversely, the risks we face in the modern world are generally much smaller, less obvious, and play out over the longer term. The brain that served us well in prehistoric times has essentially remained the same, but the world has completely changed. Therefore, our brains are susceptible to errors in thinking and mental shortcuts called cognitive biases that skew our perception of modern risks. This can lead us to overestimate very small risks, such as plane crashes, while underestimating far more probable dangers, such as chronic diseases. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Why we overestimate the risks of flying There are several drivers of our misperception of risks when it comes to flying specifically. The fact events such as the Air India plane crash are so rare makes them all the more psychologically powerful when they do occur. And in today's digital media landscape, the proliferation of dramatic footage of the crash itself, along with images of the aftermath, amplifies its emotional and visual impact. The effect these vivid images have on our thinking around the risks of flying is called the availability heuristic. The more unusual and dramatic an event is, the more it stands out in our minds, and the more it skews our perception of its likelihood. Another influence on the way we perceive risks relevant to flying is called dread risk, which is a psychological response we have to certain types of threats. We fear certain risks that feel more catastrophic or unfamiliar. It's the same reason we may disproportionately fear terrorist attacks, when in reality they're very uncommon. Plane crashes usually involve a large number of deaths that occur at one time. And the thought of going down in a plane may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overweighting of the risks. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Another factor that contributes to our overestimation of flying risks is our lack of control when flying. When we're passengers on a plane, we are in many ways completely dependent on others. Even though we know pilots are highly trained and commercial aviation is very safe, the lack of control we have as passengers triggers a deep sense of vulnerability. This absence of control makes the situation feel riskier than it actually is, and often riskier than activities where the threat is far greater but there is an (often false) sense of control, such as driving a car. Passengers gather in front of the ticket counter of Air India airlines. File image/Reuters In a nutshell We have an evolutionary bias toward reacting more strongly to particular threats, especially when these events are dramatic, evoke dread and when we feel an absence of control. Although events such as Air India crash affect us deeply, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport. Understandably, this can get lost in the emotional aftermath of tragic plane crashes. Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The Sun
6 days ago
- General
- The Sun
Lessons from sophomore philosophy class
I took a sophomore philosophy course in formal logic from a professor who was an enthusiastic admirer of Socrates, as all are. He did not give many formal lectures. We could read the assigned texts just as well and at a time or place of our choosing, as was his excuse. As such, his class was lively with discussions and rebuttals as well as questions and answers. One of his early exercises was to pretend that we were facing a real-life decision. Should I buy a new car or fix the present one? Or not buy one at all and depend on public transit. Another was whether I should go on to graduate school or find a job; marry now or wait. He would then have us record our decision immediately, for or against, impulsively as it were. Decades later, Daniel Kahneman would call that 'fast thinking' in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Following that, our professor would begin the discussion and then make us list the pros and cons for each point. We would then give a numerical weightage to each statement for its importance to us. At the end, we would total the positives and negatives and then compare whether our 'fast thinking' decision made in earlier pre-analysis matched that of our deliberate post-analysis 'slow thinking.' That was his class exercise in rational decision-making, and also the one lesson I found useful and relevant throughout my life. As my dilemma was novel for the class (should I remain in Canada for graduate work or return to Malaysia?), it was discussed extensively as an example of serious decision-making. For added measure, it morphed into a discussion on community obligations versus personal aspirations, where the two would parallel and when they would be at odds, with our professor guiding and prodding us, Socrates-like. We (especially me) were surprised at how different our decisions were before and after that careful methodical analysis. That was also the first time I had entertained the thought of not returning home immediately but to stay back and continue my studies and gain valuable experience. I wanted to return as a seasoned surgeon, not a half-baked one. Looking back at that class exercise and after using that technique many times since, it is not so much the decisions that I have made over the years, rather the process that I have forced myself to engage in, that is, deliberate downstream analysis instead of a rushed decision swayed by impulses and emotions of the moment. Kahneman elaborated that in his Thinking, Fast and Slow. He remains the rare non-economist to have won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his insights on decision-making. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom in the discipline, humans are not the rational Homo economicus we are made out to be, obsessed only with seeking 'maximal utility.' Emotions and other extraneous factors do come into play, often in major roles, with our decisions. Socrates echoed something similar two millennia ago: know thyself! Or more famously quoted, an unexamined life is not worth living, reflecting the importance of critical self-reflection. As a physician and a Muslim, I disagree. All lives, being Allah's precious gift, are worth living, examined or not. My late father used a comparable technique to make us 'think slow.' Before leaving the house for a trip, he would pause and ask, 'Are we all ready?' If we were to answer with a quick perfunctory 'yes', he would be more specific as to whether the back door of the house had been locked and had we left enough water for the cat. The very act of pausing, or slowing our thinking through asking those questions, forces us to mentally recheck things. It is amazing how often we had forgotten to lock the door or switch off a light. Pausing and thinking, otherwise known as deliberating, would trigger many questions: the hows, whys, whats and whens, and most important, the 'what ifs' and the 'are you sure?' queries. Just by posing those simple questions we are already well on the way of exercising critical thinking and arriving at a more satisfactory as well as a successful solution to our problem, if not a more informed decision. That is also how a child learns, by asking endless 'whys.' That can be exasperating to parents but in the end that sharpens and enhances the child's learning. The lessons I learned from my old philosophy class decades ago are still relevant to me now that I am entering my eighth decade of life. That is, be a child again, and often. Be curious. Keep asking why!
India Gazette
13-06-2025
- India Gazette
News of the Air India plane crash is traumatic. Here's how to make sense of the risk
On Thursday afternoon local time, an Air India passenger plane bound for London crashed shortly after takeoff from the northwestern Indian city of Ahmedabad. There were reportedly 242 people onboard, including two pilots and ten cabin crew. The most up-to-date reports indicate the death toll has surpassed 260, including people on the ground. Miraculously, one passenger - British national Vishwashkumar Ramesh - survived the crash. Thankfully, catastrophic plane crashes such as this are very rare. But seeing news of such a horrific event is traumatic, particularly for people who may have a fear of flying or are due to travel on a plane soon. If you're feeling anxious following this distressing news, it's understandable. But here are some things worth considering when you're thinking about the risk of plane travel. One of the ways to make sense of risks, especially really small ones, is to put them into context. Although there are various ways to do this, we can first look to figures that tell us the risk of dying in a plane crash per passenger who boards a plane. Arnold Barnett, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calculated that in 2018-22, this figure was one in 13.7 million. By any reckoning, this is an incredibly small risk. And there's a clear trend of air travel getting safer every decade. Barnett's calculations suggest that between 2007 and 2017, the risk was one per 7.9 million. We can also compare the risks of dying in a plane crash with those of dying in a car accident. Although estimates of motor vehicle fatalities vary depending on how you do the calculations and where you are in the world, flying has been estimated to be more than 100 times safer than driving. The risk of being involved in a plane crash is extremely small. But for a variety of reasons, we often perceive it to be greater than it is. First, there are well-known limitations in how we intuitively estimate risk. Our responses to risk (and many other things) are often shaped far more by emotion and instinct than by logic. As psychologist Daniel Kahneman explains in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, much of our thinking about risk is driven by intuitive, automatic processes rather than careful reasoning. Notably, our brains evolved to pay attention to threats that are striking or memorable. The risks we faced in primitive times were large, immediate and tangible threats to life. Conversely, the risks we face in the modern world are generally much smaller, less obvious, and play out over the longer term. The brain that served us well in prehistoric times has essentially remained the same, but the world has completely changed. Therefore, our brains are susceptible to errors in thinking and mental shortcuts called cognitive biases that skew our perception of modern risks. This can lead us to overestimate very small risks, such as plane crashes, while underestimating far more probable dangers, such as chronic diseases. There are several drivers of our misperception of risks when it comes to flying specifically. The fact events such as the Air India plane crash are so rare makes them all the more psychologically powerful when they do occur. And in today's digital media landscape, the proliferation of dramatic footage of the crash itself, along with images of the aftermath, amplifies its emotional and visual impact. The effect these vivid images have on our thinking around the risks of flying is called the availability heuristic. The more unusual and dramatic an event is, the more it stands out in our minds, and the more it skews our perception of its likelihood. Another influence on the way we perceive risks relevant to flying is called dread risk, which is a psychological response we have to certain types of threats. We fear certain risks that feel more catastrophic or unfamiliar. It's the same reason we may disproportionately fear terrorist attacks, when in reality they're very uncommon. Plane crashes usually involve a large number of deaths that occur at one time. And the thought of going down in a plane may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overweighting of the risks. Another factor that contributes to our overestimation of flying risks is our lack of control when flying. When we're passengers on a plane, we are in many ways completely dependent on others. Even though we know pilots are highly trained and commercial aviation is very safe, the lack of control we have as passengers triggers a deep sense of vulnerability. This absence of control makes the situation feel riskier than it actually is, and often riskier than activities where the threat is far greater but there is an (often false) sense of control, such as driving a car. We have an evolutionary bias toward reacting more strongly to particular threats, especially when these events are dramatic, evoke dread and when we feel an absence of control. Although events such as Air India crash affect us deeply, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport. Understandably, this can get lost in the emotional aftermath of tragic plane crashes.
Al Etihad
03-06-2025
- Business
- Al Etihad
Dubai Future Academy launches courses on foresight, AI, and leadership
3 June 2025 14:23 DUBAI (ALETIHAD)Dubai Future Academy, the capacity-building arm of the Dubai Future Foundation (DFF) has launched eight new training programmes for 2025 aimed at equipping leaders, professionals, and future-focused individuals across all sectors with the critical skills of foresight, artificial intelligence, and courses are scheduled to run throughout the year, and they are aligned with DFF's efforts in preparing future leaders to shape a more resilient, future-ready society, and empower talent with the skills needed to thrive in a fast-changing on the occasion, Abdulaziz AlJaziri, Deputy CEO of Dubai Future Foundation, said: 'These programmes reflect Dubai's long-standing commitment to equipping individuals and institutions with the knowledge and tools needed to navigate disruption, embrace innovation, and design the future. The Dubai Future Academy remains a key pillar in preparing our talent for the opportunities ahead – across sectors, disciplines, and borders.'The academy welcomes participants across the spectrum of executive, leadership, and strategic roles, including C-suite leaders, policymakers, directors, decision-makers, and mid-to-senior professionals, and individuals seeking to upskill in strategy, innovation, foresight, and specialised courses cover a wide range of disciplines, including scenario planning, AI productivity tools, innovation, leadership resilience, and strategy in partnership with world-class institutions and subject-matter experts, where each course is designed to empower participants with hands-on insights and practical tools for immediate June onwards, the 2025 courses include Foresight Leadership (June 16-17), Future-Proofing Innovation (September 22-24), AI Workplace (October 7-8), Futures Thinking (November 24-25), and Innovation Foresight (December 8-10).Each course is built on the Academy's three core pillars—Futures Literacy, Futures Technologies, and Futures Methodologies—covering skills such as scenario-building, systems thinking, AI applications, and leadership will emerge from the programs with a mix of theoretical understanding, real-world studies, and practical workshops that lay the foundation for a new approach to thinking, planning, and academy welcomes mid to senior level professionals, entrepreneurs, government officials, and change-makers from across industries to join the upcoming sessions. Registrations are now open for courses starting from June to December. Source: Aletihad - Abu Dhabi
Jordan Times
24-04-2025
- Politics
- Jordan Times
Prince El Hassan meets delegations from French Senate, US Congress
HRH Prince El Hassan Bin Talal on Wednesday holds separate meetings with a delegation from the French Senate's Communication, Thinking, Monitoring and Solidarity Group with the Christians of the East (Petra photo) AMMAN — HRH Prince El Hassan Bin Talal on Wednesday held separate meetings with a delegation from the French Senate's Communication, Thinking, Monitoring and Solidarity Group with the Christians of the East and with a US Congressional aides delegation. During the meeting with the French delegation, Prince El Hassan stressed the importance of fostering dialogue across the region, advocating for respect toward the diverse identities of minority communities and recognising their vital role in shaping a shared and inclusive regional future, the Jordan News Agency, Petra, reported. He underscored the necessity of human solidarity among Eastern communities as a foundation for preserving dignity and countering the forces of polarisation and hatred. The Prince also reviewed the efforts of the Royal Institute for Inter-Faith Studies in promoting dialogue among followers of different religions, underlining its contributions to building bridges of understanding and coexistence. During the discussion with the US delegation, Prince El Hassan emphasised the importance of cultivating a 'will to stay' among the peoples of the region by expanding economic, developmental and humanitarian opportunities that empower communities to remain in their homelands. He warned against the deepening threat of sectarianism and called for the strategic use of the Great Rift Valley as a platform for regional cooperation, development and the advancement of human dignity. Highlighting the need for pragmatic, evidence-based strategies, Prince El Hassan also called for a comprehensive approach to development that places human dignity at the core of all policies and initiatives. Also on Wednesday, Senate President Faisal Fayez met with the US Congressional aides delegation to discuss Jordanian-US ties and regional developments. Fayez reiterated the strength of Jordan-US relations and highlighted Jordan's comprehensive reform programme across political, economic and administrative spheres. He also outlined the Kingdom's economic and security challenges amid ongoing regional instability. Fayez also expressed appreciation for US assistance in helping Jordan address these challenges, but urged the US administration to reconsider recently imposed tariffs on Jordanian exports. He also called for the reversal of a decision to halt funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), particularly in critical sectors such as health, education, and the empowerment of women and youth, to support Jordan's development efforts and promote regional peace and stability.
