News of the Air India plane crash is traumatic. Here's how to make sense of the risk
On Thursday afternoon local time, an Air India passenger plane bound for London crashed shortly after takeoff from the northwestern Indian city of Ahmedabad. There were reportedly 242 people onboard, including two pilots and ten cabin crew.
The most up-to-date reports indicate the death toll has surpassed 260, including people on the ground.
Miraculously, one passenger - British national Vishwashkumar Ramesh - survived the crash.
Thankfully, catastrophic plane crashes such as this are very rare. But seeing news of such a horrific event is traumatic, particularly for people who may have a fear of flying or are due to travel on a plane soon.
If you're feeling anxious following this distressing news, it's understandable. But here are some things worth considering when you're thinking about the risk of plane travel.
One of the ways to make sense of risks, especially really small ones, is to put them into context.
Although there are various ways to do this, we can first look to figures that tell us the risk of dying in a plane crash per passenger who boards a plane. Arnold Barnett, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calculated that in 2018-22, this figure was one in 13.7 million. By any reckoning, this is an incredibly small risk.
And there's a clear trend of air travel getting safer every decade. Barnett's calculations suggest that between 2007 and 2017, the risk was one per 7.9 million.
We can also compare the risks of dying in a plane crash with those of dying in a car accident. Although estimates of motor vehicle fatalities vary depending on how you do the calculations and where you are in the world, flying has been estimated to be more than 100 times safer than driving.
The risk of being involved in a plane crash is extremely small. But for a variety of reasons, we often perceive it to be greater than it is.
First, there are well-known limitations in how we intuitively estimate risk. Our responses to risk (and many other things) are often shaped far more by emotion and instinct than by logic.
As psychologist Daniel Kahneman explains in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, much of our thinking about risk is driven by intuitive, automatic processes rather than careful reasoning.
Notably, our brains evolved to pay attention to threats that are striking or memorable. The risks we faced in primitive times were large, immediate and tangible threats to life. Conversely, the risks we face in the modern world are generally much smaller, less obvious, and play out over the longer term.
The brain that served us well in prehistoric times has essentially remained the same, but the world has completely changed. Therefore, our brains are susceptible to errors in thinking and mental shortcuts called cognitive biases that skew our perception of modern risks.
This can lead us to overestimate very small risks, such as plane crashes, while underestimating far more probable dangers, such as chronic diseases.
There are several drivers of our misperception of risks when it comes to flying specifically.
The fact events such as the Air India plane crash are so rare makes them all the more psychologically powerful when they do occur. And in today's digital media landscape, the proliferation of dramatic footage of the crash itself, along with images of the aftermath, amplifies its emotional and visual impact.
The effect these vivid images have on our thinking around the risks of flying is called the availability heuristic. The more unusual and dramatic an event is, the more it stands out in our minds, and the more it skews our perception of its likelihood.
Another influence on the way we perceive risks relevant to flying is called dread risk, which is a psychological response we have to certain types of threats. We fear certain risks that feel more catastrophic or unfamiliar. It's the same reason we may disproportionately fear terrorist attacks, when in reality they're very uncommon.
Plane crashes usually involve a large number of deaths that occur at one time. And the thought of going down in a plane may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overweighting of the risks.
Another factor that contributes to our overestimation of flying risks is our lack of control when flying. When we're passengers on a plane, we are in many ways completely dependent on others. Even though we know pilots are highly trained and commercial aviation is very safe, the lack of control we have as passengers triggers a deep sense of vulnerability.
This absence of control makes the situation feel riskier than it actually is, and often riskier than activities where the threat is far greater but there is an (often false) sense of control, such as driving a car.
We have an evolutionary bias toward reacting more strongly to particular threats, especially when these events are dramatic, evoke dread and when we feel an absence of control.
Although events such as Air India crash affect us deeply, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport. Understandably, this can get lost in the emotional aftermath of tragic plane crashes.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New Indian Express
2 hours ago
- New Indian Express
Air India: Descent into Despair
Once upon a time, the Maharajah wearing a turban, smiled engagingly, and served you warm towels. Today, he serves you cockroaches in your omelette and plummets you 10,000 feet to death. Welcome to Air India, 2.0. When the Tatas took over the airline in 2022, it was hailed as a corporate coronation: the return of the prodigal to its original home, to be lovingly nursed back to world-class splendour. Instead, it's a Titanic with wings. Let's not mince words: passengers have died. Before, too. When AI 171 fell out of the sky in Ahmedabad, the world was told it was a tragedy. No, it was a reckoning. It lasted 30 seconds in the air. It cost over 270 lives. Days later, a Delhi-bound AI Dreamliner returned to Hong Kong, its airport of origin, after the pilot suspected a technical issue. He said, 'We don't want to continue further.'—a clear indication that the traumatised pilot would rather go back to base than trust his machine. Another flight from San Francisco to Mumbai was stuck in Kolkata because of a technical snag. Yet another was forced back to Delhi post-takeoff due to technical failure—marking yet another unscheduled diversion. On Tuesday, Air India cancelled seven international flights, including six operated by Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners, as part of precautionary checks on its Dreamliner fleet, following heightened safety scrutiny by aviation authorities in the aftermath of the Ahmedabad crash.
Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
Spain's BNB bust: Why Indian tourists are ditching tapas for Taj Mahal tours
During her spring break, an Indian MBA student enrolled in a top Spanish business school had planned to explore the Basque countryside, a quiet getaway after months of rigorous coursework. But just days before the trip, her charming bed and breakfast in San Sebastián got abruptly cancelled. With prices for alternative accommodations skyrocketing and options limited, she stayed back in Madrid and settled for local sightseeing. As Spain grapples with protests against mass tourism, anecdotes like this one are coming up frequently this year. The Spanish government recently ordered Airbnb to take down more than 66,000 rental listings that failed to comply with regulations, particularly those that didn't clarify ownership, while a Madrid court called for the immediate removal of 5,000 such listings. These moves follow mounting protests across major cities like Barcelona and Seville where locals say tourism is pricing them out of housing. That tension is now echoing back to India's outbound travel industry, with data indicating a noticeable shift away from Spain, particularly among value-conscious and mid-range Indian travellers. According to the latest data from Turespaña, Spain's national tourism board, more than 226,000 Indian tourists visited the country in 2024, growing over 60% from 2022. The increasing negative sentiment and hostility towards tourism may now weigh on the growth, say travel industry insiders. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now Undo 'Spain has always been a favourite for Indian travellers, but over the past year, we've seen a noticeable shift,' said Tavleen Bhatia, chief marketing and revenue officer at travel services company Cleartrip. 'This year, pre-monsoon season, bookings to Spain dipped by 32%.' 'Lot of Planning Needed Now' Indian travellers are broadening their European bucket list and are increasingly turning to destinations like Georgia, Romania, Serbia and Sweden for their rich culture and more affordable experiences, Bhatia said. Live Events Other factors may also be affecting the shift in traveller intent. 'The numbers this year have been a bit muted. That can be attributed to multiple factors, like changing preferences or less disposable income to spend,' said Rajiv Mehra, general secretary of the Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism and Hospitality. He also explained the hostility faced by tourists in Spain. 'Accommodation has become an issue of prioritising locals over tourists. Locals view tourists as the prime cause of increased rentals, and they find it unaffordable. The whole issue sprang from there. Tourists avoid those destinations where they feel unwelcome by the locals.' The lack of affordable accommodation options is also being felt. Hari Ganapathy, co-founder of customised tour package provider Pickyourtrail, said: 'A holiday in Spain now requires much earlier planning, primarily due to the limited availability of accommodations, which has become a more prominent issue recently.' The well-heeled, however, are still finding their way to the Iberian Peninsula with enthusiasm. According to SOTC Travel president SD Nandakumar, even with a 7-10% increase in tour pricing this year, 'Spain continues to witness strong interest from our customers.' The average 9N/10D itinerary is now priced around `2.9 lakh per person. Travellers are booking personalised holidays that include winery tours in La Rioja and Ribera del Duero, football stadium visits in Madrid and Barcelona, and nightlife experiences in Ibiza. There has also been a shift in where and how people travel. 'There's a clear uptick in demand for boutique hotels, luxury villas and heritage stays, reflecting the intent to slow down and explore more deeply,' he said. At Thomas Cook (India), per-person spends for Spain range from 2 lakh to 3 lakh, often with bookings in 4- to 5-star hotels or even luxury resorts. Rajeev Kale, president, Thomas Cook (India), said, 'Interestingly, we are witnessing shorter booking windows — approximately 1.5-2 months in advance, aligning with faster visa processing times.' According to Kale, emerging locales like Málaga and Costa del Sol in Andalusia, Ronda and Segovia are gaining traction.
Economic Times
3 hours ago
- Economic Times
Spain's BNB bust: Why Indian tourists are ditching tapas for Taj Mahal tours
'Lot of Planning Needed Now' Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel During her spring break, an Indian MBA student enrolled in a top Spanish business school had planned to explore the Basque countryside, a quiet getaway after months of rigorous coursework. But just days before the trip, her charming bed and breakfast in San Sebastián got abruptly cancelled. With prices for alternative accommodations skyrocketing and options limited, she stayed back in Madrid and settled for local Spain grapples with protests against mass tourism, anecdotes like this one are coming up frequently this year. The Spanish government recently ordered Airbnb to take down more than 66,000 rental listings that failed to comply with regulations, particularly those that didn't clarify ownership, while a Madrid court called for the immediate removal of 5,000 such listings. These moves follow mounting protests across major cities like Barcelona and Seville where locals say tourism is pricing them out of tension is now echoing back to India's outbound travel industry, with data indicating a noticeable shift away from Spain, particularly among value-conscious and mid-range Indian travellers. According to the latest data from Turespaña, Spain's national tourism board, more than 226,000 Indian tourists visited the country in 2024, growing over 60% from 2022. The increasing negative sentiment and hostility towards tourism may now weigh on the growth, say travel industry insiders.'Spain has always been a favourite for Indian travellers, but over the past year, we've seen a noticeable shift,' said Tavleen Bhatia, chief marketing and revenue officer at travel services company Cleartrip. 'This year, pre-monsoon season, bookings to Spain dipped by 32%.'Indian travellers are broadening their European bucket list and are increasingly turning to destinations like Georgia, Romania, Serbia and Sweden for their rich culture and more affordable experiences, Bhatia factors may also be affecting the shift in traveller intent. 'The numbers this year have been a bit muted. That can be attributed to multiple factors, like changing preferences or less disposable income to spend,' said Rajiv Mehra, general secretary of the Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism and also explained the hostility faced by tourists in Spain. 'Accommodation has become an issue of prioritising locals over tourists. Locals view tourists as the prime cause of increased rentals, and they find it unaffordable. The whole issue sprang from there. Tourists avoid those destinations where they feel unwelcome by the locals.'The lack of affordable accommodation options is also being felt. Hari Ganapathy, co-founder of customised tour package provider Pickyourtrail, said: 'A holiday in Spain now requires much earlier planning, primarily due to the limited availability of accommodations, which has become a more prominent issue recently.'The well-heeled, however, are still finding their way to the Iberian Peninsula with enthusiasm. According to SOTC Travel president SD Nandakumar, even with a 7-10% increase in tour pricing this year, 'Spain continues to witness strong interest from our customers.'The average 9N/10D itinerary is now priced around `2.9 lakh per person. Travellers are booking personalised holidays that include winery tours in La Rioja and Ribera del Duero, football stadium visits in Madrid and Barcelona, and nightlife experiences in Ibiza. There has also been a shift in where and how people travel.'There's a clear uptick in demand for boutique hotels, luxury villas and heritage stays, reflecting the intent to slow down and explore more deeply,' he Thomas Cook (India), per-person spends for Spain range from 2 lakh to 3 lakh, often with bookings in 4- to 5-star hotels or even luxury resorts. Rajeev Kale, president, Thomas Cook (India), said, 'Interestingly, we are witnessing shorter booking windows — approximately 1.5-2 months in advance, aligning with faster visa processing times.'According to Kale, emerging locales like Málaga and Costa del Sol in Andalusia, Ronda and Segovia are gaining traction.
