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The Hill
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
NYC mayoral race tightens: Polling
The Democratic primary for the New York City mayor's race has tightened further in the latest Marist Poll, with former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo ahead but with a narrower lead. The poll released Wednesday showed Cuomo winning in the city's ranked-choice voting system in the seventh round, 55 percent to 45 percent, over state Assembly member Zohran Mamdani in second. That's still a somewhat comfortable margin for Cuomo but closer than the 60 percent to 40 percent margin in the last round that Marist's poll from last month showed. Ranked choice allows voters to select up to five candidates in order of the preference of support. The candidate with the fewest top preference votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed according to their supporters' next preference. The process continues until a candidate receives a majority. In the first round, Cuomo is ahead with 43 percent, followed by Mamdani with 31 percent. City Comptroller Brad Lander, who made headlines Tuesday after his arrest by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, came in third with 8 percent, while New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams received 7 percent and former Comptroller Scott Stringer received 4 percent. The other candidates received 2 percent or less. The poll was conducted before Lander was detained as he was trying to guide an immigrant through court and released shortly after. While Cuomo has the lead, an overview of the poll from Marist notes some voters' support remains up for grabs for the top contenders, with 11 percent undecided in the first round and 11 percent not choosing Cuomo or Mamdani at any point on their ballot. The results support other polls that show Mamdani closing the gap behind Cuomo, who has been the front-runner in the race for months. The margin of Cuomo's lead has depended on the poll, but he's kept the lead by at least several points in public, independent polling of the race. The Marist poll showed Cuomo is strongest in the Bronx, with 49 percent support, and Queens and Staten Island, where he receives 44 percent. He rose in Manhattan from 32 percent last month to 41 percent now, while Mamdani is strongest in Brooklyn, where he receives 36 percent, up 11 points. Mamdani has also made gains among Latinos, doubling his support from last month from 20 percent to 41 percent. He leads Cuomo among that group. While Mamdani has made gains and notched key endorsements, including from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a win over Cuomo would be considered a significant upset. Mamdani is formally receiving an endorsement from 2021 mayoral candidate Maya Wiley, who came in third and ran as a progressive, on Wednesday. Pollsters also found an increasing number of voters are following the race closely ahead of the primary next week. Three quarters of respondents said they're following it closely or very closely, an increase from two thirds last month. The poll was conducted among 1,350 likely Democratic primary voters from June 9 to 12. The margin of error is 4.3 percentage points.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Andrew Cuomo's lead over Zohran Mamdani shrinking in final stretch of NYC mayoral race: poll
Andrew Cuomo's lead in the 2025 mayoral race is shrinking, with runner-up candidate Zohran Mamdani cutting the ex-governor's edge over him nearly in half over the past month, according to a new poll that also found a significant chunk of voters remain undecided. The new poll, conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, quizzed 1,350 likely Democratic primary election voters between June 9 and June 12. The poll's margin of error is plus-minus 4.3%. Cuomo, who has consistently polled as the frontrunner in next Tuesday's Democratic mayoral primary, was ranked as the first choice by 38% of New Yorkers surveyed, the Marist poll found. Mamdani, a democratic socialist Assembly member representing western Queens, nabbed 27% of the poll's first-choice picks, putting him 11% behind Cuomo. That's a marked improvement for Mamdani compared to the last mayoral race poll Marist released May 14, which found Cuomo holding a 19% lead over the lawmaker. Additionally, the new poll found 11% of voters are still undecided. The poll from May had 17% of respondents listed as undecided. Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist poll, explained the relatively large margin of undecided voters could be a worrisome sign for Cuomo. 'Cuomo's numbers haven't moved that much, his support is staying about the same,' he told the Daily News. 'But it's that the undecideds are getting involved and they're going a lot to Mamdani. [Mamdani] has a shot.' Of the Cuomo team, Miringoff continued: 'I would be watchful and wouldn't think that this is in the bank at this point. It's still a contest, it's still competitive, but he is the favorite and it is always better to be ahead than behind.' The other candidates in the mayoral race only clinched single digits of support in the poll, with City Comptroller Brad Lander and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams sharing third place with 7% support each. Early voting started last weekend in the June 24 Democratic mayoral primary. The primary is ranked-choice, meaning voters can put five candidates in order of preference on their ballots. In a ranked-choice simulation conducted by Marist's pollsters, Cuomo would win in the seventh round by a 55%-45% margin over Mamdani. Comptroller Brad Lander was the only other candidate left in the sixth round of that simulation, earning 13% support. Ranked-choice math can get tricky, Miringoff acknowledged, and it's hard to predict in a poll how those tabulations will shake out. In a bid to beef up their own chances, Mamdani and Lander have crossed-endorsed each other, urging their respective supporters to rank the other candidate second on their ballots. 'That leaves some question mark on Cuomo as the front-runner,' Miringoff said. Another significant finding in the new poll is that Mamdani has expanded his support among Latino voters by broad margins, earning 41% support from that constituency, a 21% increase from his levels in the May survey. Cuomo's support among Latinos, meanwhile, decreased to 36% from 41%, according to the new poll. The boost in Latino support for Mamdani comes after New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the Democratic Party's most popular figures, endorsed him as her No. 1 pick on June 5. Mamdani, who's running on a left-wing platform that includes promises to expand free childcare and freeze rent for stabilized tenants, has also aired Spanish language ads in recent weeks.
Newsweek
05-06-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Winning New York Mayoral Race
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has a strong chance of winning the New York mayor primary, latest betting odds show. Cuomo's odds of success stand at 82 percent while his nearest rival, Zohran Mamdani, is on 19 percent, according to Polymarket, at the time of publishing. Why It Matters Cuomo is standing in the primaries for New York City mayor, returning to public life after he resigned as New York Governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations. Cuomo has always denied the accusations and no charges were ever brought against him. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely win the race, as New York City is reliably Democratic. Andrew Cuomo speaks during a Democratic mayoral primary debate, Wednesday, June 4, 2025, in New York. Andrew Cuomo speaks during a Democratic mayoral primary debate, Wednesday, June 4, 2025, in New York. AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, Pool The election uses ranked-choice ballots, meaning voters select up to five candidates in order of preference. What To Know On Wednesday, nine Democratic candidates faced off in a two-hour debate. The latest odds measure how prospective voters responded to the debate. They show that Cuomo had a slight dip from his 84 percent odds of victory before the debate, but that overall the debate didn't affect voting behavior to a large extent. Polls have shown Cuomo has a strong lead in the run up to the election. A May Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered voters, found that 35 percent backed Cuomo on the first round of the ranked-choice ballot, while Mamdani was favored by 23 percent. According to a Marist Poll conducted between May 1 and 8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo was the first choice of 37 percent of respondents, including those who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate. What People Are Saying William F. Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri told Newsweek: "Several important factors, including the huge name recognition advantage and extensive political experience, coupled with the significant challenges that any Muslim candidate would face, including Mamdani as a Muslim American running for public office in a major American city populated with an extensive Jewish constituency and heavily sympathetic Jewish leaning political environment, the odds for his chances for success in the New York City Mayoral race, would appear to be extremely daunting and highly unlikely. "Despite several of Cuomo's negative issues that have blemished his career, on balance, there nonetheless still does appear to be a strong viable window for victory for Cuomo, because of the many positive successes he achieved while in public office in the past and especially, in light of the current difficulties experienced in the New York City's Mayors office, under the incumbent." Cuomo during the debate: "I know how to deal with Donald Trump because I've dealt with him before. We fought on a daily basis through COVID. And I won many of those battles ... So he can be beaten, but he has to know that he's up against an adversary who can actually beat him." Queens assemblyman and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, during the debate: "The difference between myself and Andrew Cuomo is that my campaign is not funded by the very billionaires who put Donald Trump in D.C." What Happens Next The Democratic primary takes place on 24 June. The general mayoral election takes place on 4 November. Meanwhile, Cuomo is facing another legal issue as House Oversight Chair James Comer requested that the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigate and potentially prosecute him for allegedly lying to Congress about New York State's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in nursing homes. Cuomo's spokesperson Rich Azzopardi told Politico the claims were "nonsense," adding: "As the DOJ constantly reminds people, this kind of transparent attempt at election interference and lawfare violates their own policies."
Miami Herald
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Winning Democratic Primary
Andrew Cuomo is emerging as the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, with new polling showing he is the first choice of nearly 40 percent of likely voters. The strong early showing suggests that Cuomo's political base remains solid, despite past issues, and that his message is resonating with a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate. If these numbers persist, his path to the nomination may be shorter and smoother than expected—reshaping the dynamics of the race and putting pressure on rivals to consolidate support or risk elimination. A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations—which he has consistently denied. According to a new survey by Marist Poll, conducted between May 1-8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo is the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are undecided, but leaning toward a candidate. With his closest rival, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, trailing at 18 percent, Cuomo's commanding lead places him in a strong position ahead of what's expected to be a fiercely contested race. Trailing Mamdani are NYC Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (9 percent), NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (8 percent), former Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer (4 percent), and State Senator Zellnor Myrie (3 percent). State Senator Jessica Ramos earns 2 percent, Whitney Tilson 1 percent, and former Democratic National Convention Vice Chair Michael Blake polls at under 1 percent. But notably, 17 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided—leaving room for late shifts in momentum. Nonetheless, the poll shows that Cuomo's support is not only broad, but geographically strong, signaling that his appeal is widespread. He performs best in the Bronx, where he garners 50 percent, and holds 48 percent in both Queens and Staten Island. In Manhattan, he leads with 32 percent, while he and Mamdani are tied at 25 percent each in Brooklyn. Cuomo is also consolidating support among key Democratic constituencies, particularly older voters and communities of color, giving him a critical advantage in the New York City mayoral primary. According to the poll, nearly half of likely Democratic voters aged 45 and older back Cuomo—an important edge given that older voters historically turn out in much higher numbers than younger ones. Mamdani, meanwhile, leads among younger voters, capturing 38 percent of Democrats under 45 compared to just 18 percent for Cuomo. He also commands strong support from the party's left flank, winning nearly half of voters who identify as "very liberal." Cuomo, by contrast, dominates among Democrats who describe themselves as liberal, moderate, or conservative. Racial and ethnic divides are also shaping the race. Cuomo holds overwhelming support among Black voters, with 50 percent saying they plan to vote for him—far ahead of other candidates, including Adams, who is backed by about one in seven Black Democrats. Cuomo also leads among Latino voters, securing 41 percent support—more than double Mamdani's 20 percent. Jewish voters are more divided, with Cuomo leading at 26 percent, followed by Lander (17 percent), Mamdani (14 percent), and Adams (10 percent). And in ranked choice voting projections, Cuomo begins with 44 percent of the vote in the first round—more than double Mamdani's 22 percent. Adams follows with 11 percent, and Lander with 10 percent. By the fifth round, Cuomo breaks the 50 percent threshold, winning with 53 percent of likely Democratic voters (excluding undecided voters), while Mamdani ends with 29 percent, and Lander with 18 percent. Cuomo also led in ranked choice voting projections in a survey conducted by Data for Progress between March 17–24 among 854 likely Democratic primary voters. In that poll, in the first round of the ranked choice simulation, Cuomo led with 39 percent, followed by Mamdani at 15 percent, Lander at 8 percent, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7 percent. City Council Speaker Adams received 5 percent, while all other candidates polled below that mark. The poll had a margin of error of +3 percentage points. But with three months remaining until the primary election, the dynamics of the race may still shift. Around this point in 2021, Andrew Yang led in public polling by double digits, but ultimately finished fourth, with 12 percent of the vote. Online betting site Polymarket currently puts Cuomo's odds of winning the Democratic primary at 89 percent. Mamdani follows with odds of 7 percent. Every other candidate has odds of 1 percent or less. Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines. On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party's nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign. Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down." Early voting for the primary is set to run from June 14-22. Related Articles Donald Trump's Approval Rating Suffers Double DentPete Buttigieg's 2028 Chances as He Gives Update on Possible RunNew Jersey Governor Race Update: What Polls Say Four Weeks Ahead of PrimaryDonald Trump's Approval Rating Reaches New Low Point: Poll 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Winning Democratic Primary
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Andrew Cuomo is emerging as the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, with new polling showing he is the first choice of nearly 40 percent of likely voters. Why It Matters The strong early showing suggests that Cuomo's political base remains solid, despite past issues, and that his message is resonating with a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate. If these numbers persist, his path to the nomination may be shorter and smoother than expected—reshaping the dynamics of the race and putting pressure on rivals to consolidate support or risk elimination. A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations—which he has consistently denied. What To Know According to a new survey by Marist Poll, conducted between May 1-8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo is the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are undecided, but leaning toward a candidate. With his closest rival, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, trailing at 18 percent, Cuomo's commanding lead places him in a strong position ahead of what's expected to be a fiercely contested race. Trailing Mamdani are NYC Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (9 percent), NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (8 percent), former Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer (4 percent), and State Senator Zellnor Myrie (3 percent). State Senator Jessica Ramos earns 2 percent, Whitney Tilson 1 percent, and former Democratic National Convention Vice Chair Michael Blake polls at under 1 percent. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks during a mayoral candidates' forum on April 23, 2025, in New York City. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks during a mayoral candidates' forum on April 23, 2025, in New York City. Frank Franklin II/AP But notably, 17 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided—leaving room for late shifts in momentum. Nonetheless, the poll shows that Cuomo's support is not only broad, but geographically strong, signaling that his appeal is widespread. He performs best in the Bronx, where he garners 50 percent, and holds 48 percent in both Queens and Staten Island. In Manhattan, he leads with 32 percent, while he and Mamdani are tied at 25 percent each in Brooklyn. Cuomo is also consolidating support among key Democratic constituencies, particularly older voters and communities of color, giving him a critical advantage in the New York City mayoral primary. According to the poll, nearly half of likely Democratic voters aged 45 and older back Cuomo—an important edge given that older voters historically turn out in much higher numbers than younger ones. Mamdani, meanwhile, leads among younger voters, capturing 38 percent of Democrats under 45 compared to just 18 percent for Cuomo. He also commands strong support from the party's left flank, winning nearly half of voters who identify as "very liberal." Cuomo, by contrast, dominates among Democrats who describe themselves as liberal, moderate, or conservative. Racial and ethnic divides are also shaping the race. Cuomo holds overwhelming support among Black voters, with 50 percent saying they plan to vote for him—far ahead of other candidates, including Adams, who is backed by about one in seven Black Democrats. Cuomo also leads among Latino voters, securing 41 percent support—more than double Mamdani's 20 percent. Jewish voters are more divided, with Cuomo leading at 26 percent, followed by Lander (17 percent), Mamdani (14 percent), and Adams (10 percent). And in ranked choice voting projections, Cuomo begins with 44 percent of the vote in the first round—more than double Mamdani's 22 percent. Adams follows with 11 percent, and Lander with 10 percent. By the fifth round, Cuomo breaks the 50 percent threshold, winning with 53 percent of likely Democratic voters (excluding undecided voters), while Mamdani ends with 29 percent, and Lander with 18 percent. Cuomo also led in ranked choice voting projections in a survey conducted by Data for Progress between March 17–24 among 854 likely Democratic primary voters. In that poll, in the first round of the ranked choice simulation, Cuomo led with 39 percent, followed by Mamdani at 15 percent, Lander at 8 percent, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7 percent. City Council Speaker Adams received 5 percent, while all other candidates polled below that mark. The poll had a margin of error of +3 percentage points. But with three months remaining until the primary election, the dynamics of the race may still shift. Around this point in 2021, Andrew Yang led in public polling by double digits, but ultimately finished fourth, with 12 percent of the vote. Online betting site Polymarket currently puts Cuomo's odds of winning the Democratic primary at 89 percent. Mamdani follows with odds of 7 percent. Every other candidate has odds of 1 percent or less. Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines. On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party's nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign. What People Are Saying Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down." What Happens Next Early voting for the primary is set to run from June 14-22.
