Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Winning Democratic Primary

Andrew Cuomo is emerging as the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, with new polling showing he is the first choice of nearly 40 percent of likely voters.
The strong early showing suggests that Cuomo's political base remains solid, despite past issues, and that his message is resonating with a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate. If these numbers persist, his path to the nomination may be shorter and smoother than expected—reshaping the dynamics of the race and putting pressure on rivals to consolidate support or risk elimination.
A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations—which he has consistently denied.
According to a new survey by Marist Poll, conducted between May 1-8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo is the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are undecided, but leaning toward a candidate.
With his closest rival, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, trailing at 18 percent, Cuomo's commanding lead places him in a strong position ahead of what's expected to be a fiercely contested race.
Trailing Mamdani are NYC Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (9 percent), NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (8 percent), former Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer (4 percent), and State Senator Zellnor Myrie (3 percent).
State Senator Jessica Ramos earns 2 percent, Whitney Tilson 1 percent, and former Democratic National Convention Vice Chair Michael Blake polls at under 1 percent.
But notably, 17 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided—leaving room for late shifts in momentum.
Nonetheless, the poll shows that Cuomo's support is not only broad, but geographically strong, signaling that his appeal is widespread. He performs best in the Bronx, where he garners 50 percent, and holds 48 percent in both Queens and Staten Island. In Manhattan, he leads with 32 percent, while he and Mamdani are tied at 25 percent each in Brooklyn.
Cuomo is also consolidating support among key Democratic constituencies, particularly older voters and communities of color, giving him a critical advantage in the New York City mayoral primary. According to the poll, nearly half of likely Democratic voters aged 45 and older back Cuomo—an important edge given that older voters historically turn out in much higher numbers than younger ones.
Mamdani, meanwhile, leads among younger voters, capturing 38 percent of Democrats under 45 compared to just 18 percent for Cuomo. He also commands strong support from the party's left flank, winning nearly half of voters who identify as "very liberal." Cuomo, by contrast, dominates among Democrats who describe themselves as liberal, moderate, or conservative.
Racial and ethnic divides are also shaping the race. Cuomo holds overwhelming support among Black voters, with 50 percent saying they plan to vote for him—far ahead of other candidates, including Adams, who is backed by about one in seven Black Democrats. Cuomo also leads among Latino voters, securing 41 percent support—more than double Mamdani's 20 percent.
Jewish voters are more divided, with Cuomo leading at 26 percent, followed by Lander (17 percent), Mamdani (14 percent), and Adams (10 percent).
And in ranked choice voting projections, Cuomo begins with 44 percent of the vote in the first round—more than double Mamdani's 22 percent. Adams follows with 11 percent, and Lander with 10 percent. By the fifth round, Cuomo breaks the 50 percent threshold, winning with 53 percent of likely Democratic voters (excluding undecided voters), while Mamdani ends with 29 percent, and Lander with 18 percent.
Cuomo also led in ranked choice voting projections in a survey conducted by Data for Progress between March 17–24 among 854 likely Democratic primary voters.
In that poll, in the first round of the ranked choice simulation, Cuomo led with 39 percent, followed by Mamdani at 15 percent, Lander at 8 percent, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7 percent. City Council Speaker Adams received 5 percent, while all other candidates polled below that mark. The poll had a margin of error of +3 percentage points.
But with three months remaining until the primary election, the dynamics of the race may still shift. Around this point in 2021, Andrew Yang led in public polling by double digits, but ultimately finished fourth, with 12 percent of the vote.
Online betting site Polymarket currently puts Cuomo's odds of winning the Democratic primary at 89 percent. Mamdani follows with odds of 7 percent. Every other candidate has odds of 1 percent or less.
Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines.
On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party's nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign.
Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down."
Early voting for the primary is set to run from June 14-22.
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Hochul's recent criticism of the East River rehab, paired with open hostility toward Amtrak from officials at the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, are yet another sore spot between the Democratic governor and the Trump administration over transit — one among many. Trump is trying to kill New York's signature congestion pricing program. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy recently seized control of the high-profile overhaul of Penn Station and handed it to Amtrak, under the supervision of former MTA head Andy Byford. But the tunnel clash adds animosity to what was once widely regarded as a slam dunk repair project by Amtrak to its own tunnels. Sandy flooded two of four East River train tunnels, leaving behind a salty residue that's eating away at the concrete casing. Since then, Amtrak has been working on a plan to fix the century-old tubes by closing them one after another for two-and-a-half years of repair work. The closures could prompt delays for Long Island commuters if something goes wrong in any of the other tunnels. Hochul worries those delays could shred public confidence in transit after the state is 'finally getting our footing.' 'The last thing I want to do is have a setback that can go on for years,' Hochul said. 'So I was very clear in my messaging to Amtrak: Don't screw this up.' As the tunnel repair project loomed, Hochul and the MTA asked Amtrak to rip up its closure plans and take a different approach known as 'repair in place,' which would shift the work to nights and weekends and keep the tunnels open during peak commuting times. In doing so, she and her allies have used rhetoric that would have been hard to imagine when Biden was president. 'Amtrak's track record for us is a little terrifying,' MTA CEO Janno Lieber said, citing unrelated problems with Amtrak's system that caused massive headaches for New Jersey commuters last summer. Lisa Daglian, the head of the Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee to the MTA, cited a history of Amtrak system problems to suggest that if something went wrong with the East River tunnels, the 2017 'summer of hell' transit crisis in New York City would look like a 'warm spring day.' In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy and members of the state's congressional delegation have expressed frustration with Amtrak, but for other reasons and in more muted terms. Murphy, a Democrat, stepped in to broker a peace between Amtrak and NJ Transit last summer after the two railroads got into a spat over who was to blame for massive delays for Garden State commuters. Now, every few months, Murphy gathers NJ Transit and Amtrak leaders in front of cameras to field reporters' questions about their joint work. Not so in New York. New York's criticism of Amtrak intensified shortly after Duffy announced in mid-April that it would be in charge of Penn Station, a move that sidelined the MTA and Lieber, who has his own particular vision for what should happen there. It's hard to know if the tunnel flare up aimed at Amtrak is part of a tit-for-tat, but it's a theory few people are discounting given that the MTA and Amtrak had been talking about the tunnel work for years. 'We were surprised by this sudden disavowment of a plan that we had worked together on for a long time,' said Laura Mason, Amtrak's executive vice president for capital project delivery. New York contends it has long harbored worries about Amtrak's plan to close one tunnel for 13 months of repairs, reopen it and then close the other for 13 more months. The East River tunnels are used by Amtrak, the MTA's Long Island Rail Road and NJ Transit, which sends trains to Queens so they can be ready to head back to New Jersey during rush hour. NJ Transit has not raised a ruckus over the tunnel project. But LIRR, which is part of the MTA, is the biggest user of the tunnels. And its leader, Rob Free, is worried because it sends more than 450 trains and 125,000 customers through them each day. In early May, Amtrak handed LIRR an easy anecdote to bash it with even before repairs began: Poor quality control meant one of the tunnels wasn't ready to go after an overnight outage, inconveniencing tens of thousands of Long Island commuters. If another tunnel had been closed for repair when that happened, there would have been even more delays and cancellations. 'The governor of New York seems to be more concerned about Amtrak customers than they do,' Free, the head of LIRR, said during a press conference in remarks that echoed Hochul's own. Mason of Amtrak responded that the critique 'didn't hurt because it wasn't true,' but she was frustrated by Free 'misrepresenting the collective effort that went into these plans.' Mason said that while the MTA has had concerns, it has been part of the project for years — the MTA has helped get the money for the project, signed off on the design and participated in the procurement. But there's been a bipartisan group of New York members worried about Amtrak for a while, including everything from Amtrak's service cuts to the full closure of the tunnels. Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's ideas about how to run a railroad also loom over the dispute. To avoid a shutdown of the L subway line in 2019, Cuomo's administration instead shifted most of the work to nights and weekends. He was hailed as a sort of hero at the time and wanted to use that same repair-in-place approach on other projects, including Gateway. Now Hochul wants to use the idea for the East River tunnels. Amtrak recently fought back against it by offering a rare media tour of one of the East River tunnels to show just how fragile the tunnels are and why it considers repair-in-place unworkable. The tour began on a recent Thursday with a descent into Tunnel 2 at 1 a.m. Down there, travelling on the back of a truck in an otherwise empty tunnel dozens of feet below Manhattan's 1st Avenue and the East River itself, Amtrak officials pointed to the extent of the damage done by time and Sandy. Rickety catwalks meant for escape in an emergency seemed questionable at best. Water dripped from the ceiling, pooling near tracks in a way that could force trains to slow or stop. Cast-iron casing crumbled in one Amtrak worker's hand. The tunnel repairs Amtrak is making should ensure people can escape in an emergency. It won't stop all the dripping, but it's expected to prevent puddles from shutting down service and will upgrade the tunnel's interior and electrical work. 'What we're designing is a tunnel that helps itself,' said Liam McQuat, Amtrak's vice president of engineering services. 'This has been 12 years in the making.' The biggest impression Amtrak made was just how hard it would be to cram in work on nights and weekends: It seemed hard enough to get a gaggle of reporters in and out of the tunnel — no trains could travel in the tunnel that had to be blocked off and powered down for safety. The message Amtrak sent was that trying to get hundreds of workers and all their equipment in and out of the tunnel each night and have the tunnel reopened in time for the morning commute would be challenging and inefficient. It could also triple or quadruple the time it would take to make the repairs. In a press conference the next day, Free dismissed Amtrak's tour as the work of a car salesman. 'The salesman pulls the car up, you sit in the car, pulls at your heartstrings, pulls at your emotions,' Free said. 'But at the end of the day, it's about the details, it's about what's the bottom line.'