Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Winning Democratic Primary
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Andrew Cuomo is emerging as the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, with new polling showing he is the first choice of nearly 40 percent of likely voters.
Why It Matters
The strong early showing suggests that Cuomo's political base remains solid, despite past issues, and that his message is resonating with a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate. If these numbers persist, his path to the nomination may be shorter and smoother than expected—reshaping the dynamics of the race and putting pressure on rivals to consolidate support or risk elimination.
A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations—which he has consistently denied.
What To Know
According to a new survey by Marist Poll, conducted between May 1-8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo is the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are undecided, but leaning toward a candidate.
With his closest rival, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, trailing at 18 percent, Cuomo's commanding lead places him in a strong position ahead of what's expected to be a fiercely contested race.
Trailing Mamdani are NYC Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (9 percent), NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (8 percent), former Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer (4 percent), and State Senator Zellnor Myrie (3 percent).
State Senator Jessica Ramos earns 2 percent, Whitney Tilson 1 percent, and former Democratic National Convention Vice Chair Michael Blake polls at under 1 percent.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks during a mayoral candidates' forum on April 23, 2025, in New York City.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks during a mayoral candidates' forum on April 23, 2025, in New York City.
Frank Franklin II/AP
But notably, 17 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided—leaving room for late shifts in momentum.
Nonetheless, the poll shows that Cuomo's support is not only broad, but geographically strong, signaling that his appeal is widespread. He performs best in the Bronx, where he garners 50 percent, and holds 48 percent in both Queens and Staten Island. In Manhattan, he leads with 32 percent, while he and Mamdani are tied at 25 percent each in Brooklyn.
Cuomo is also consolidating support among key Democratic constituencies, particularly older voters and communities of color, giving him a critical advantage in the New York City mayoral primary. According to the poll, nearly half of likely Democratic voters aged 45 and older back Cuomo—an important edge given that older voters historically turn out in much higher numbers than younger ones.
Mamdani, meanwhile, leads among younger voters, capturing 38 percent of Democrats under 45 compared to just 18 percent for Cuomo. He also commands strong support from the party's left flank, winning nearly half of voters who identify as "very liberal." Cuomo, by contrast, dominates among Democrats who describe themselves as liberal, moderate, or conservative.
Racial and ethnic divides are also shaping the race. Cuomo holds overwhelming support among Black voters, with 50 percent saying they plan to vote for him—far ahead of other candidates, including Adams, who is backed by about one in seven Black Democrats. Cuomo also leads among Latino voters, securing 41 percent support—more than double Mamdani's 20 percent.
Jewish voters are more divided, with Cuomo leading at 26 percent, followed by Lander (17 percent), Mamdani (14 percent), and Adams (10 percent).
And in ranked choice voting projections, Cuomo begins with 44 percent of the vote in the first round—more than double Mamdani's 22 percent. Adams follows with 11 percent, and Lander with 10 percent. By the fifth round, Cuomo breaks the 50 percent threshold, winning with 53 percent of likely Democratic voters (excluding undecided voters), while Mamdani ends with 29 percent, and Lander with 18 percent.
Cuomo also led in ranked choice voting projections in a survey conducted by Data for Progress between March 17–24 among 854 likely Democratic primary voters.
In that poll, in the first round of the ranked choice simulation, Cuomo led with 39 percent, followed by Mamdani at 15 percent, Lander at 8 percent, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7 percent. City Council Speaker Adams received 5 percent, while all other candidates polled below that mark. The poll had a margin of error of +3 percentage points.
But with three months remaining until the primary election, the dynamics of the race may still shift. Around this point in 2021, Andrew Yang led in public polling by double digits, but ultimately finished fourth, with 12 percent of the vote.
Online betting site Polymarket currently puts Cuomo's odds of winning the Democratic primary at 89 percent. Mamdani follows with odds of 7 percent. Every other candidate has odds of 1 percent or less.
Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines.
On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party's nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign.
What People Are Saying
Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down."
What Happens Next
Early voting for the primary is set to run from June 14-22.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Newsweek
36 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Zohran Mamdani Responds to Car Bomb Death Threats: 'Not Surprising'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who is running in the Democratic primary for mayor in New York City, issued a statement after his office said it received multiple threats about blowing up his car. Newsweek reached out to Mamdani's campaign and the New York City Police Department outside of business hours for comment. The Context Mamdani has emerged as a leading candidate among the city's most progressive voters in the mayoral primary election due to policy proposals, including rent freezes and city-owned grocery stores to combat rising grocery costs. He has been endorsed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Most polls show that one of his rivals, Andrew Cuomo, a centrist candidate who resigned in 2021 as New York's governor amid allegations of sexual harassment that he has denied, has a lead over Mamdani. Whichever candidate wins will likely become the favorite in the November general election, given that New York City is a Democratic stronghold. Mamdani's campaign recently hired security to deal with the increasing threats made against him. He told reporters this week that he receives anti-Muslim messages and death threats. Zohran Mamdani attends the 2025 National Puerto Rican Day Parade in New York City on June 8, 2025. Zohran Mamdani attends the 2025 National Puerto Rican Day Parade in New York City on June 8, 2025. Credit: Katie Godowski/MediaPunch /IPX What To Know Mamdani's office received four voicemails from an unknown individual who said they would blow up his car, a spokesperson for his campaign told various news outlets. "After multiple death threats and racist messages, Assemblymember Mamdani's office is participating in an ongoing investigation by the NYPD's Hate Crimes Task Force," the statement said. "While Zohran does not own a car, the violent and specific language of what appears to be a repeat caller is alarming and we are taking every precaution. While this is a sad reality, it is not surprising after millions of dollars have been spent on dehumanizing, Islamophobic rhetoric designed to stoke division and hate. Violence and racism should have no place in our politics. Zohran remains focused on delivering a safe and affordable New York." The NYPD said it was investigating the report and added that the calls, which included "threatening anti-Muslim statements," were made on various dates and reported on Wednesday. What People Are Saying Zohran Mamdani told reporters earlier this week: "I get messages that say things like the only good Muslim is a dead Muslim. I get threats on my life and on the people that I love and I try not to talk about it." Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is also running in the primary, said in a statement thatit was "an atrocious threat of political violence" that "has no place in our politics or our society." What Happens Next The investigation into the threats is ongoing and is being conducted by the Hate Crime Task Force division of the NYPD. The primary election is next Tuesday, June 24, and early voting has opened. The general election for mayor is November 4, 2025.
Yahoo
39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Making NYC affordable: Where the mayoral primary candidates stand on the housing crisis
NEW YORK — New York City is facing intertwined housing and affordability crises, with record rents and historically low apartment vacancy rates. About half of households struggle to pay for the basics while a quarter live in poverty. Within the debate over affordability, finding ways to create more affordable housing has become a major concern for voters. With the Democratic primary for mayor approaching on Tuesday, the Daily News is breaking down some of the key issues for voters and where each candidate stands on them. Here is how the contenders have proposed tackling the housing crisis on social media, in interviews, during debates and as part of their formal policy plans. We have included the top seven candidates who met the fundraising thresholds to qualify for the second debate. Adams has touted her housing record as Speaker, saying she is 'doing the work' with large-scale rezonings like City of Yes, Innovation QNS and the Atlantic Avenue Mixed-Use Plan. As mayor she pledged to 'use every tool available' to address the housing crisis by cutting red tape and using emergency powers to get affordable housing built. She and the broader City Council also passed an expansion of the CityFHEPS rental assistance program as part of a protracted legal battle with Mayor Eric Adams. She has indicated she supports a rent freeze at least this year for tenants in rent-stabilized apartments. Cuomo has said he would use 'every option available' to develop 500,000 new apartments over a 10-year period. During the first debate, the former HUD secretary vowed to 'blow up' the city's Department of Housing Preservation and Development to minimize bureaucracy, a proposal that was warmly received by real estate players but balked at by tenant advocates. Cuomo has not supported a rent freeze for rent-stabilized tenants, dismissing it as a 'politically convenient posture.' Opponents of a freeze have argued that the cost of operating and maintaining buildings would continue to rise while rents remained flat, potentially putting property owners in a precarious financial position. Lander has said he would be 'the best-prepared housing mayor,' citing his years in urban planning and work passing the Gowanus rezoning while on the Council. His lengthy housing plan involves declaring a housing emergency to expedite the development of 500,000 new units of housing over a decade, including on city-owned golf courses. It also calls for coming down harder on 'irresponsible' landlords and increasing funding for NYCHA and the Department of Housing Preservation and Development. Lander has called for a one-year rent freeze in his capacity as comptroller and expressed an openness to doing so again as mayor. Mamdani has made freezing rents for rent-stabilized tenants a centerpiece of his campaign, saying he would do so for all four years if elected mayor. His housing plan would triple the City's production of affordable housing with the aim of producing 200,000 new homes over ten years. Mamdani would also fast-track 100% affordable projects, double the money being spent to preserve public housing and beef up municipal housing agencies. Mamdani proposes funding many of his ambitious plans by increasing taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers. Myrie has pitched himself as the 'YIMBY' candidate, with a plan to build and preserve one million homes over a decade. It includes revitalizing NYCHA, building more in Midtown, reallocating shelter financing for housing and expanding the Right to Counsel program. Myrie has called for a one-year rent freeze for tenants in rent-stabilized apartments and said he would consider it in the future. Stringer's housing plan — dubbed 'Mitchell-Lama 2.0' — includes developing affordable homes by building on underutilized city-owned lots and reclaiming derelict properties from neglectful landlords. He further hopes to bolster public housing by securing $40 billion for NYCHA improvements. The former hedge fund manager summarized his housing mantra as 'unleash the private sector.' Tilson says he would cut red tape in order to create more affordable housing by streamlining zoning and approval processes, and said the city should be constructing at least 100,000 new units annually. Tilson indicated at the second debate that he does not support a rent freeze for rent-stabilized tenants this year.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Is Backsliding
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's approval rating is backsliding, according to new polling. The RealClearPolitics' polling average shows that as of June 17, Trump's approval stands at 46.5 percent, with 51 percent disapproving—a decline from June 3, when he held a narrower gap at 47.5 percent approval to 49.7 percent disapproval. President Donald Trump talks with reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on June 18, 2025, in Washington. President Donald Trump talks with reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on June 18, 2025, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP Why It Matters RealClearPolitics includes several pollsters that tend to show more favorable results for Trump, such as Rasmussen Reports. The dip suggests growing discontent, even within a polling mix that has historically leaned more Republican-friendly. What To Know Multiple polls have shown a downward trend in Trump's approval rating in recent days. That includes Newsweek's tracker, which shows Trump's net approval rating at -4 points, with 47 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. That is down from earlier this month when Trump's net approval rating sat at -2 for more than a week. Rasmussen's daily poll tracker also put Trump's ratings down from last week, when his net approval peaked at +8 points. It now stands at +5 points, with 52 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. Meanwhile, the latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted between June 13-16 among 1,512 adults, put Trump's approval rating at 41 percent, down 2 points since last week, with 54 percent disapproving, up 2 points. The latest Morning Consult poll, conducted between June 13-15 among 2,207 registered voters, put Trump's approval rating at 46 percent, down from 47 percent last week, with 52 percent disapproving, up from 51 percent. And in the latest J.L. Partners poll, conducted on June 16-17, Trump's approval held steady at 46 percent. But disapproval was up 11 points to 51 percent since their last poll in February. Approval also held steady in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll (June 11-16) at 42 percent, but his disapproval rose by 2 points to 54 percent. A HarrisX/Harvard survey, on June 11-12, registered a more noticeable shift as approval slipped to 46 percent, down from 47 percent in May, while disapproval rose to 50 percent from 48 percent. Still, a handful of polls recorded slight gains for Trump, though largely within the margin of error. In the latest Echelon Insights poll (June 17-18) and Fox News poll (June 13-16), Trump approval rating was up 2 points, while disapproval was down by 1 point compared to last month. An Insider Advantage poll, conducted on June 15-16 among 1,000 likely voters, put his approval rating at 54 percent, with 44 percent disapproving, giving him a net approval rating of +10 points. That was virtually unchanged from May. The latest Clarity Campaign Labs poll, which put Trump's approval rating at 47 percent, while 50 percent disapproved, was also virtually unchanged. What Happens Next Trump's approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events.
