Latest news with #IMFWorldEconomicOutlook
Gulf Today
14-06-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
Global economic growth outlook plunges to 2.3%, says World Bank
The World Bank lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent previously expected. In its latest economic prospects report, the 189-country organisation attributed the downgrade to escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty, noting that the US President Donald Trump's extensive tariffs have strained international ties and dampened economic outlooks worldwide. This revision marks the latest in a series of downgrades by international organisations. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund said that its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that since the last release of the Fund's World Economic Outlook in April, there have been some positive developments that could support improved economic activity, including a major tariff reduction between the US and China and an initial trade deal between the US and Britain. 'So taken together such announcements combined with the April 9 pause on the high level of tariffs, these could support activity relative to the forecast that we had in April,' Kozack told a regular IMF news briefing. 'But nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue.' The IMF also will take into account US President Donald Trump's added steel and aluminium tariffs, she said. These have now reached 50 per cent for all exporters. The World Bank slashed its 2025 global growth forecast by four-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.3 per cent, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a 'significant headwind' for nearly all economies. The development lender cut forecasts for nearly 70 per cent of all economies - including the US, China and Europe, but the prior forecast came before Trump took office and imposed tariffs on nearly all trading partners. The IMF's steep April forecast cut did take into account Trump's initial tariff assault, reducing the 2025 global growth outlook by half a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.8 per cent, with a slower decline in inflation. Kozack said the next IMF World Economic Outlook update will be issued toward the end of July, but did not provide a specific date. Trump's 'reciprocal' tariff pause is currently scheduled to expire on July 8, with many countries seeking to negotiate tariff-reducing deals before then. And Trump has said there could be extensions of that deadline for countries engaged in good faith negotiations with the US Kozack said that more recent activity indicators reflect 'a complex economic landscape' with first quarter front-loading activity to beat tariffs, while there has been some diversion of trade and an unwinding of import activity in the second quarter. There also could be more trade deals or other developments to take into account. 'So all of this creates kind of a complicated picture for us, with some upside risk, some other developments, and we'll take all of these developments together into account as we update our forecast,' Kozack said. The International Monetary Fund said that its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that since the last release of the Fund's World Economic Outlook in April, there have been some positive developments that could support improved economic activity, including a major tariff reduction between the US and China and an initial trade deal between the US and Britain. 'So taken together such announcements combined with the April 9 pause on the high level of tariffs, these could support activity relative to the forecast that we had in April,' Kozack told a regular IMF news briefing. 'But nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue.' Meanwhile world stock markets fell on Friday, and oil prices surged, as Israel launched military strikes on Iran, sparking inflows into safe havens such as gold and the dollar. An escalation adds uncertainty to financial markets at a time of heightened pressure on the global economy from US President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Brent crude oil prices were last up 7.25 per cent at $74.39 per barrel, having jumped as much as 14 per cent during Asian trading hours. They were set for their biggest one-day jump since 2022, when energy costs spiked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gold, a safe haven in times of global uncertainty, rose 1.4 per cent to $3,432 per ounce, bringing it close to the record high of $3,500.05 from April. The rush to safety was matched by a dash out of risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.65 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.86 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9 per cent. Reuters
RTÉ News
13-06-2025
- Business
- RTÉ News
IMF says July forecasts to take into account trade deals, uncertainty
The International Monetary Fund said its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that since the last release of the Fund's World Economic Outlook in April, there have been some positive developments that could support improved economic activity, including a major tariff reduction between the US and China and an initial trade deal between the US and Britain. "So taken together such announcements combined with the April 9 pause on the high level of tariffs, these could support activity relative to the forecast that we had in April," Kozack told a regular IMF news briefing. "But nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue." The IMF also will take into account US President Donald Trump's added steel and aluminum tariffs, she said. These have now reached 50% for all exporters. The World Bank earlier this week slashed its 2025 global growth forecast by four-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. The development lender cut forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies - including the US, China and Europe, but the prior forecast came before Trump took office and imposed tariffs on nearly all trading partners. The IMF's steep April forecast cut did take into account Trump's initial tariff assault, reducing the 2025 global growth outlook by half a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.8%, with a slower decline in inflation. Kozack said the next IMF World Economic Outlook update will be issued toward the end of July, but did not provide a specific date. Trump's "reciprocal" tariff pause is currently scheduled to expire on July 8, with many countries seeking to negotiate tariff-reducing deals before then. Trump has said there could be extensions of that deadline for countries engaged in good faith negotiations with the US. Kozack said that more recent activity indicators reflect "a complex economic landscape" with first quarter front-loading activity to beat tariffs, while there has been some diversion of trade and an unwinding of import activity in the second quarter. There also could be more trade deals or other developments to take into account. "So all of this creates kind of a complicated picture for us, with some upside risk, some other developments, and we'll take all of these developments together into account as we update our forecast," Kozack said.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
IMF says July forecasts to take into account trade deals, uncertainty
By David Lawder and Karin Strohecker (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that since the last release of the Fund's World Economic Outlook in April, there have been some positive developments that could support improved economic activity, including a major tariff reduction between the U.S. and China and an initial trade deal between the U.S. and Britain. "So taken together such announcements combined with the April 9 pause on the high level of tariffs, these could support activity relative to the forecast that we had in April," Kozack told a regular IMF news briefing. "But nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue." The IMF also will take into account U.S. President Donald Trump's added steel and aluminum tariffs, she said. These have now reached 50% for all exporters. The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its 2025 global growth forecast by four-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. The development lender cut forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies - including the U.S., China and Europe, but the prior forecast came before Trump took office and imposed tariffs on nearly all trading partners. The IMF's steep April forecast cut did take into account Trump's initial tariff assault, reducing the 2025 global growth outlook by half a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.8%, with a slower decline in inflation. Kozack said the next IMF World Economic Outlook update will be issued toward the end of July, but did not provide a specific date. Trump's "reciprocal" tariff pause is currently scheduled to expire on July 8, with many countries seeking to negotiate tariff-reducing deals before then. And Trump has said there could be extensions of that deadline for countries engaged in good faith negotiations with the U.S. Kozack said that more recent activity indicators reflect "a complex economic landscape" with first quarter front-loading activity to beat tariffs, while there has been some diversion of trade and an unwinding of import activity in the second quarter. There also could be more trade deals or other developments to take into account. "So all of this creates kind of a complicated picture for us, with some upside risk, some other developments, and we'll take all of these developments together into account as we update our forecast," Kozack said.
GMA Network
12-06-2025
- Business
- GMA Network
Marcos touts fast growth, low inflation in June 12 toast
"We are confident that we will achieve the six percent GDP growth target in the coming quarters, driven by a steady fiscal consolidation, easing inflation, and progress in trade negotiations with key partners, amongst other initiatives," Marcos said. President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. on Thursday raised a toast to the Philippines' growth of 5.6% in the first quarter, the 1.3% inflation in May, and other gains that had him calling the country "an economic standout" in the region. At the annual Independence Day Vin d'Honneur in Malacañang, Marcos also reported to the diplomatic corps the Philippines' exit from the Financial Action Task Force's grey list of countries under increased monitoring for money laundering and terrorism finance, and the enactment of laws expected to promote further growth. "I am pleased to note that the Philippine economy grew 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025 and is among the fastest in the ASEAN region despite rising global volatilities. This includes growth for major economic sectors of agriculture, forestry, fishing, industry, and services," Marcos said. "We are confident that we will achieve the six percent GDP growth target in the coming quarters, driven by a steady fiscal consolidation, easing inflation, and progress in trade negotiations with key partners, amongst other initiatives," he added. "The forecast is supported by the IMF World Economic Outlook in April of 2025, which similarly painted a rosy projection for the Philippines to be the fastest-growing economy among ASEAN five countries in 2025," Marcos said. As regards the inflation rate, Marcos said that it was the lowest since November 2019. "It's a very encouraging development, not only as it creates a stable and predictable economic environment for businesses, but also because it increases the purchasing power of individuals and households, especially lower-income families," Marcos said. Marcos thanked the diplomats for their countries' help and trust that resulted in the Philippines being taken off the FATF grey list. "Adding to investors' confidence in the country is the exit of the Philippines from the Financial Action Task Force's greylist a few months ago. This we would not have achieved without the help and trust of your governments. So once again, thank you very much," Marcos said. Marcos mentioned as the government's legislative and policy reforms aimed at improving the investment climate in both local and foreign investments. These include: Republic Act No. 12214 of the Capital Markets Efficiency Promotion Act, "which will encourage ordinary Filipinos to invest in the Philippines' capital markets and promote inclusive growth"; Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives of Enterprises, which addresses concerns of value-added tax exemptions and gives investors the flexibility to enjoy income tax holidays, "designed to draw in more investors"; and joint memorandum circular on strengthening the coordination and mechanism between and among investment facilitation network members integration of the provisions of Executive Order No. 18, Series 2023, "to seriously end bureaucratic red tape, improve the ease of doing business, and make the Philippines a more attractive destination for investors." Marcos campaigned anew for the country's bid for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2027 to 2028. 'We just finished an election, and I cannot stop campaigning. Our candidature is anchored in our country's legacy in multilateralism as evidenced by our history of forging cooperation and seeking peace. We earnestly hope to receive the support of your respective governments in that field,' Marcos said. The Philippines has been a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council during the following years: 1957, 1963, 1980 to 1981, and 2004 to 2005. "On this note, at this point, I would like to invite everyone to join me in a toast to everyone's very good health and long life," Marcos said.
IOL News
04-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Petrol price drop offers slight relief for South African consumers
Experts say that a slight decrease in petrol price will create some breathing room for consumers. Image: Tumi Pakkies / Independent Newspapers Experts say that a slight decrease in petrol price will create some breathing room for consumers. This follows the Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe announcing on Wednesday a 5 cents per litre decrease on both grades of petrol and 36.90 cents per litre decrease on both grades of diesel. Waldo Krugell, an economics professor at the North-West University (NWU), said that consumers are lucky that the slightly stronger rand–dollar exchange rate and stable crude oil price have absorbed the impact of the increase in the fuel levy that came into effect today. 'It is not quite relief, but the fact that the price is not going up adds to the little bit of breathing room in household budgets. Last week's repo rate cut will also help. And it is really important as we saw in yesterday's Q1 GDP numbers that household spending is all that is keeping the economy going.' Dr Eliphas Ndou, an economist and author at Unisa's Department of Economics, said that the decreases in fuel prices due to the rand appreciation against the US dollar and lower oil prices are good news for the logistics sector and commuters, as transport costs and fares will remain low. 'It's also good news to producers using these fuels as inputs in their production processes. It's a huge relief to financially constrained consumers, facing an expensive food basket and high administered prices, as food prices may not rise due to low transportation costs.' Ndou added that the latest IMF World Economic Outlook report forecasts oil prices to remain around $65 (R1155) per barrel at least throughout the year. 'Hence, fluctuations at low prices may keep fuel prices lower in the near future, thereby cushioning motorists and producers against the fuel levy increase.' Lerato Nkosi, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Unisa, said that what is crucial about the fuel price is the impact it's going to have on the consumer. 'The fuel levy increase is already a tax burden that the consumers are facing. A decrease in fuel price will decrease transportation costs and as far as logistics go that will be transportation cost of foods. We hope this will lead to a decrease in the price of food and a decrease in consumer price index (CPI).' Lebo Ramolahloane, National Vice Chairperson of the South African Petroleum Retailers Association (SAPRA), said that while the price drop is welcome; the benefits are significantly muted by the simultaneous tax hikes. 'Consumers and businesses were hoping for a more meaningful reprieve, especially after a third consecutive month of fuel price cuts. Unfortunately, the new increases in fuel levies - 16c per litre for petrol and 15c for diesel - are eroding much of that anticipated relief.' Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Ramolahloane added that the revised General Fuel Levy, now R4.15 per litre for petrol and R4.02 for diesel, alongside the Road Accident Fund Levy, still at R2.18 per litre, continues to contribute heavily to the overall fuel price structure. 'Fuel is a key cost driver in virtually every industry. Any increase in fuel-related taxes pushes up the cost of transport, goods, and services. So while the price adjustments in June technically decrease, the net gain to consumers is marginal.' CEO of Debt Rescue Neil Roets says there is no way to sugarcoat the reaction of South Africans to this news. ''This is a slap in the face of motorists and commuters, who have been battling to make ends meet in the face of ever-escalating living costs for over a year, with authorities seemingly turning a blind eye. It is no secret that this minuscule cut in the price of petrol is a direct result of the General Fuel Levy (GFL), which kicks in from Wednesday, 4th June. Petrol was, in fact, set to decrease by around 20c per litre, but with the 15-cent hike in the GFL, this amounted to a reduction of just five cents per litre.' BUSINESS REPORT Visist:
