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Politico
11 hours ago
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Playbook: What MAGA ‘civil war'?
Presented by With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On this morning's Playbook Podcast, Adam and Zack Stanton discuss whether Iran is dividing MAGA, how the specter of Iraq looms and the emergence of a new 2028 litmus test. Good Friday morning. This is Adam Wren. How about those Indiana Pacers? Get in touch. In today's Playbook … — Is talk of a 'civil war' over Iran within the MAGA universe overblown? — Ro Khanna tells Dasha Burns he's tired of Chuck Schumer's 'gobbledygook' answers about Iran and an authorization for use of military force. — A federal appeals court unanimously ruled in favor of Donald Trump over Gavin Newsom in the California National Guard case. DRIVING THE DAY THE BIG QUESTION: What exactly is Trump going to do about Iran? That question, its potential answer and the implications that flow from it will ricochet around Washington today. In Geneva: The foreign policy chiefs of the U.K., France, Germany and EU are meeting with their Iranian counterpart for nuclear talks with an eye toward an off-ramp on bombing Iran, as my POLITICO colleagues report from London. Among the attendees is U.K. Foreign Minister David Lammy, who yesterday had a 40-minute meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff — and 'came out believing that Trump really does prefer a deal over military action,' POLITICO's Sam Blewett reports in this morning's London Playbook. In Washington: The president will hold a national security meeting in the Oval Office at 11 a.m. That comes as Trump yesterday retreated to a familiar safe space as he weighs his choice: a 'two week' period during which he'll make a decision. If that timetable sounds familiar, there's a reason. 'Two weeks,' as NYT's Shawn McCreesh notes, is a long-running 'slippery thing' and 'not a measurement of time so much as a placeholder' for Trump. 'Tax plans, health care policies, evidence of conspiracy theories he claimed were true, the fight against ISIS, the opening of some coal mines, infrastructure plans — all were at one point or another riddles he promised to solve for the public in about two weeks,' he writes. ('With President Trump, two weeks sometimes can be kind of nebulous,' Steve Bannon told Playbook late last night.) Instead of playing the will-he-or-won't-he game, let's dive into the politics at play. Whatever path Trump chooses vis-à-vis Iran will unfurl a reality that could shape American politics for years to come. IS THE MAGA 'CIVIL WAR' ON IRAN REAL? Since Iran emerged as a central issue in Washington, there has been copious chatter about a 'civil war' within the MAGA movement over potential U.S. involvement in Iran. And for good reason: Opposing foreign intervention was one of the central planks of Trump's campaign platform and played a huge part in his rise to power. Attacking Iran could risk shattering Trump's MAGA coalition and alienating the true believers. It's worth asking whether that's more the stuff of a Resistance fever dream, though. Based on a number of conversations we've had with MAGA leaders, there are few signs anyone has the appetite or interest in seriously taking on the president over this. Not Steve Bannon: The 'War Room' host and keeper of the 'America First' flame had lunch with Trump yesterday. Though he declined to discuss his meal with the president, Bannon told Playbook last night that 'the MAGA movement tonight is in a great place.' Trump 'clearly stated' that he wants 'to look at other alternatives,' Bannon told Playbook. 'This is a guy, before he turns to violence in terms of military kinetic action, he looks at every other alternative you can do. I think it just once again reinforces the reason that the MAGA movement loves him.' (Bannon puts the onus on Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, saying 'Netanyahu's government needs to finish what it started.') Not Charlie Kirk: There is perhaps no greater proof point of a ratcheting down of MAGA consternation on Iran engagement than Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA. Kirk posted to X earlier this week that 'No issue currently divides the right as much as foreign policy,' and added that a schism on Iran could 'disrupt our momentum and our insanely successful Presidency.' But when Playbook spoke with him yesterday, he was singing from a different hymnal. 'It's not a civil war,' Kirk told us. 'I think that there is robust and healthy disagreement and discussion.' What explains it? Ryan Girdusky, a Republican political consultant with ties to VP JD Vance, put it to Playbook succinctly: 'No one gives a fuck about a few bombs so long as we don't send in ground troops.' Another factor, of course: For the last decade, Trump — rather than any specific policy issue — has been a sort of one-man dividing line defining the sides in American politics: For or against? It's hard to see that changing, especially in an era of negative partisanship. ON THE HILL: Left unsaid in White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt's briefing yesterday: Whether Trump would seek authority from Congress for any military action in Iran. If he does, he seems to have a partner in one of his own party's biggest advocates for Congress wresting back war powers from the president: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.). What's surprising about this: Young is no reflexive MAGA booster and did not endorse Trump's 2024 campaign. For years, he has teamed up with Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) to reassert Congress' role in authorizing military force. With Iran driving the news, Kaine is again demanding a new vote on authorization for the use of military force. But now, Young sounds unlikely to join his longtime Hill ally on the issue — at least with the same vociferousness as in the past. A spokesperson for Young tells Playbook that the senator 'plans to review the text [of Kaine's proposal], and will be following events closely leading up to any votes.' Earlier in the week, Young, who has long argued for a tougher stance on Iran, said on X he would 'work with the Administration should any congressional authorization be necessary to protect the American people and advance our core national security interests.' But the issue is dividing Democrats: At least one prominent Hill Dem is not impressed with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's leadership on Iran. In a clip just posted on YouTube, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) tells Playbook's Dasha Burns he's disappointed by Schumer's answer on whether he'll help push for a vote on Kaine's AUMF resolution. 'He could have said, 'No, I'm not, because I want Trump to attack Iran.' Or he could have just said, 'Yes, I am' — which is where I think the Democratic Party should be,' said Khanna. 'Instead, he gave this gobbledygook answer, which no one other than Washington Beltway consultants understand. Part of my problem is he didn't take a clear stand. That's exactly what people hate about the Democratic Party.' The full episode posts on Sunday morning. Subscribe to 'The Conversation with Dasha Burns' For your planning: Schumer has privately confirmed there will be an all-senators classified briefing on Iran early next week, an aide for the minority leader told POLITICO'S Inside Congress this morning. WHERE THERE *IS* SOME TREPIDATION: It's within Trump's own Cabinet, where some of the most significant opposition to an Iran strike lies. In March, DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and she has suggested Washington political elite are 'carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.' (Trump dismissed her testimony earlier this week with a curt, 'I don't care what she said.') What's going on here? Gabbard's views on foreign interventionism were hugely shaped by having deployed to Iraq as a member of the Army National Guard from 2004–2005, which she has cited as a turning point for her on any number of issues. On a different place on the spectrum is another Iraq veteran: Vance, whose social media diplomacy has at least somewhat quieted MAGA's sturm und drang on another foreign entanglement. One theory from MAGA world: Laura Loomer, the influential far-right activist who met with Vance at the White House complex earlier this month, suggested to Playbook that Gabbard is 'posturing to undermine JD Vance' to serve her own 'presidential and electoral interests come 2028.' (In an interview with Megyn Kelly last month, Gabbard herself said of a 2028 bid that she 'will never rule out any opportunity to serve my country.') Presented with Loomer's quotes, a Gabbard spokesperson did not comment to Playbook but sent along positive X posts from Loomer last year about a Gabbard-Trump 'unity ticket.' Loomer has since soured on Gabbard, though she stopped short of calling for her resignation as DNI. 'This is the problem with coalition-building,' Loomer told Playbook. 'The Democrats who were awarded Cabinet positions in the Trump administration essentially participated in an extortion campaign to make a deal with the president.' Bannon, at least in our chat, was less pessimistic about the state of the MAGA coalition. 'Sunday was the 10th anniversary of [Trump] coming down the golden escalator,' he said. 'We've been through trials and tragedies. We've been through victories and defeats. We've been through great days and horrible days. The one thing our movement has is resilience.' ON THE HILL RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Democrats are meeting with the Senate parliamentarian today, ahead of the crucially important Finance Committee's Byrd bath arguments on the reconciliation bill, which kick off Sunday, Punchbowl's Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio report. This process will decide what's fair game in the GOP's megabill — and Democrats are gearing up for a fight on roughly 60 tax and health provisions. Both Democratic and Republican aides are meeting with the parliamentarian beforehand. Odd man out: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, should technically be leading border security spending negotiations on the megabill — but it's really Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) running the show, POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs reports this morning. Some minor shade from Graham: 'Senator Paul usually votes 'no' and blames everybody else … [His] reducing the amount [for border security] didn't withstand scrutiny … The analysis was shallow.' Also on the outs: the SALT caucus, with Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) calling up Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) on Wednesday to get a compromise, Weiss and Desiderio report. Mullin proposed keeping the House's coveted $40,000 cap but lowering the income threshold — but they're still not close to a deal, the Washington Examiner's Rachel Schilke writes. The fallout: The megabill's 'no tax on tips' provision isn't popular with parts of the restaurant industry, AP's Dee-Ann Durbin writes. The proposal doesn't address low pay for workers who don't get tips, like dishwashers and cooks, and the Independent Restaurant Coalition is asking Congress to reconsider. Sounding the alarm: The 'Little Lobbyists,' about two dozen children with disabilities and their families, warned members of Congress this week that the proposed cuts to Medicaid would be 'devastating,' NYT's Megan Mineiro and Margot Sanger-Katz report. Losing credit: Three-quarters of electricity generation projects that benefit from Biden-era clean energy tax credits are in GOP districts, but the megabill would functionally ax them, POLITICO's Kelsey Tamborrino and Jessie Blaeser report. Democrats and clean energy advocates have been ramping up pressure to save the projects ahead of next week's potential vote, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune said yesterday the language is 'not totally settled yet,' WSJ's Lindsay Wise and Jennifer Hiller report. SWORD OF DAMOCLES: Looming in the background is OMB Director Russ Vought, who's threatening to trigger a rare (and wonky) pocket rescission to codify DOGE's spending cuts. It's not playing well with some Republicans, POLITICO's Jennifer Scholtes reports this morning. 'Pocket rescissions are illegal, in my judgment,' Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said, 'and contradict the will of Congress.' But but but: 'Talking is one thing. We'll see if he actually does it,' said Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.). ALSO COMING NEXT WEEK: Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) is a growing favorite to win the caucus vote for House Oversight ranking member, but he's backed away from calling it 'generational change,' POLITICO's Nick Wu and Hailey Fuchs write. He's met with almost all the sitting House Dems and is branding himself 'less as an anti-Trump attack dog and more as a consensus-builder.' BEST OF THE REST BREAKING LATE LAST NIGHT: A federal appeals court officially allowed Trump to retain control of the National Guard in California, against the challenge from Gov. Gavin Newsom, the AP reports. It was a unanimous ruling for Trump from a panel that included Republican and Democratic appointees. But they did reject the administration's contention that even a National Guard federalization that was 'obviously absurd or made in bad faith' couldn't be overturned by the courts. Newsom vowed to 'press forward with our challenge' to Trump's deployment of the military. L.A. confidential: The city isn't finished with its turn in the national spotlight as the epicenter of the immigration debate: Vance could make a trip to Los Angeles this week, NBC's Jacob Soboroff scooped. Plans are in the works, though not final yet. … Separately, the LA Dodgers said yesterday that they'd blocked federal agents from entering their storied stadium, but DHS contested their version of events, the LA Times' Terry Castleman and Jack Harris report. Immigration files: A federal judge issued an injunction barring the Transportation Department from conditioning infrastructure funding to blue states on cooperation with immigration enforcement, per Reuters. … After the whiplash-inducing Trump pivots on whether to conduct ICE raids at agricultural and hospitality workplaces, border czar Tom Homan pledged they will continue, per Axios. But the raids have sent a chill through key industries, where many migrants aren't showing up to work, Bloomberg's Alicia Caldwell and colleagues report. Businesses have been left befuddled by the back and forth, AP's Paul Wiseman reports. How it's playing: Focus groups with swing-state Latino Trump voters show most of them still support the president, though there are some mixed opinions about mass deportations, NBC's Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar report. POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH: Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) said he'd been run off the road by a man who had issued death threats to him and waved a Palestinian flag. 'We know who you are, young man, and the police are going to be paying you a visit,' Miller warned in a video on X, decrying the 'blatant antisemitic violence.' More from The Hill … Meanwhile in NYC, police said a man had left a voicemail suggesting that he'd blow up Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's car (though he doesn't actually own one), per the N.Y. Daily News. The NYPD has launched a hate crimes investigation. The long tail of violence: Former Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), who survived the congressional baseball shooting, tells POLITICO's Ben Jacobs that he still carries a gun for safety eight years later. Meanwhile, WaPo's Paul Kane notes that the House doesn't have a plan for what happens if violence tips the balance of power — as it has in Minnesota. BLEEDING CUTS: As Trump proposes slashing the President's Malaria Initiative budget in half, a new study projects that fully funding it would stop close to 14 million malaria cases and save more than 100,000 lives, FT's Michael Peel reports. Domestically, NYT's Kate Morgan reports that black lung is making a comeback among younger coal miners — and many federal scientists who were trying to solve the health crisis have now been fired. PAGING VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY: 'Washington has had it with Andriy Yermak,' by POLITICO's Amy Mackinnon and Jamie Dettmer: It's a 'rare point of bipartisan consensus … The second most powerful man in Ukraine, Yermak has been a particularly frustrating interlocutor for the Trump administration … [M]any in Washington have found Yermak to be uninformed about U.S. politics, abrasive and overly demanding with U.S. officials.' Yermak responded in a statement that he's doing all he can to save his country: 'If that means being considered 'challenging' by others — so be it.' SCOTUS FALLOUT: After the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee's ban on gender transition-related medical care for minors, NYT Magazine's Nicholas Confessore has a sprawling read on recriminations within the transgender rights movement. Some LGBTQ+ advocates long thought this was a losing case and questioned the strategy of bringing it to the high court — 'a tragic gamble' that perhaps 'set their movement back a generation.' The plaintiffs argue that Republican scapegoating of trans people is really to blame. Still, advocates think the ruling left them some legal room to maneuver, Reuters' Andrew Chung reports. THE WEEKEND AHEAD TV TONIGHT — PBS' 'Washington Week': Jonathan Karl, David Ignatius, David Sanger and Nancy Youssef. SUNDAY SO FAR … POLITICO 'The Conversation with Dasha Burns': Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). FOX 'Fox News Sunday': Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). Supreme Court panel: Tom Dupree and Jonathan Turley. Panel: Matt Gorman, Stef Kight, Roger Zakheim and Juan Williams. CBS 'Face the Nation': Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) … Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter … retired Gen. Frank McKenzie. NBC 'Meet the Press': Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). Panel: Lanhee Chen, Ashley Etienne, Jonathan Martin and Andrea Mitchell. ABC 'This Week': Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … Steve Ganyard … Karim Sadjadpour … Chris Christie. CNN 'State of Union': Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Xochitl Hinojosa and Scott Jennings. NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) … Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.). Panel: Ian Swanson, James Hohmann, Molly Ball and Jasmine Wright. TALK OF THE TOWN Christopher Tattersall, an arborist who helped erect the two new White House flagpoles, found himself standing by the president as Donald Trump told reporters about a potential strike on Iran. A similar thing happened to players from the Italian soccer club Juventus. Timothy Weah, a U.S. soccer player in the room with Trump, said the experience was 'a bit weird' because 'I just want to play football, man.' But Tattersall said it was 'pretty cool.' Mark Cuban confirmed that Kamala Harris' campaign requested he submit VP vetting papers. He said he declined, because it would take too long and he wouldn't have been 'very good as the No. 2 person.' PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION: 'On Juneteenth, a march in D.C. that retraces the steps to freedom,' by WaPo's Ellie Silverman and Afia Barrie: 'It's been four years since Juneteenth was designated a federal holiday … But people marching in the nation's capital Thursday said they felt like the country was moving backward … People came alone, alongside friends or with their children to celebrate the same history they feel the administration is trying to erase.' — Miss Pixie's, the iconic vintage and antiques store in Adams Morgan, is closing its doors later this year. Antique lovers everywhere, we feel your pain. MEDIA MOVES — The Atlantic is adding Quinta Jurecic, Toluse Olorunnipa and Nancy Youssef as staff writers. Jurecic previously has been a contributing writer for The Atlantic and senior editor at Lawfare. Olorunnipa previously was a national political reporter at WaPo. Youssef previously was a national security correspondent at the WSJ. TRANSITION — Shefali Razdan Duggal is now a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a speaker for Creative Artists Agency. She recently retired as U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Louis Nelson, an editor at POLITICO, and Becky Nelson, a managing director at FGS Global, welcomed Elizabeth Reeves Nelson this week. Lizzie joins big sister Juliet, who is delighted to have a baby sister, and older brother Jimmy, who is warming up to the idea. — Nicole (Ginis) Del Beccaro, a producer at Newsmax, and Thomas G. Del Beccaro, an author, historian and political commentator, welcomed Thomas Lucca Del Beccaro on Monday. He came in at 8 lbs, 12 oz and 19 1/2 inches. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro … Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) (5-0) … Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) … Adrienne Elrod … POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Mackenzie Wilkes … Ian Prior … CNN's Janie Boschma … Jeremy Wiggins … Brandon Arnold of the National Taxpayers Union … Tom Zigo of the MPA … Brad Howard of Corcoran Street Group … Ryan Walker of Heritage Action … Kristin White … Leon Rodriguez of Seyfarth Shaw … Ginger Loper … former Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.) … Gisselle Reynolds of Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart's (R-Fla.) office … Sara Pearl Kenigsberg … Emma Tenery of Speaker Mike Johnson's office … Chris Grieco … Susan O'Neill … Kai Bernier-Chen of Trident GMG Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
Politico
a day ago
- Climate
- Politico
Playbook: Inside Trump's thinking on Iran
Presented by With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco Good Thursday morning, and Happy Juneteenth. This is Jack Blanchard. INCOMING: The first big heatwave of the summer is on its way to D.C., per the Capital Weather Gang. 'Starting Sunday, high temperatures are predicted to reach at least the mid-90s,' writes chief meteorologist Jason Samenow, 'and could flirt with 100-degree levels early next week.' Yeesh. And there's more: 'Brutal humidity levels will make it feel even hotter. Heat indexes, which factor in humidity, could reach 110 degrees or so by Monday,' he adds, noting these conditions could last up to a week. 'If the most aggressive models are accurate, the heat could approach or even exceed records between Monday and Wednesday.' Your Playbook author is already regretting promising to take the kids to the zoo … Send me your tips on how to survive. In today's Playbook … — Inside Trump's thinking as the world braces for U.S. strikes on Iran. — New 8,000-person megapoll offers a sliver of midterm hope for the House GOP. — Dems in disarray as DNC infighting hits new heights … Who's surprised? BREAKING OVERNIGHT: One of Israel's main hospitals, the Soroka Medical Center, was hit by an Iranian ballistic missile strike overnight, with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu vowing Iran will 'pay a heavy price.' 'A hospital statement said several parts of the medical center were damaged and that the emergency room was treating several minor injuries,' per AP. Israel, too, carried out another wave of strikes last night, including on Iran's Arak heavy water reactor. NYT reports hundreds of Iranian civilians have been killed over the past seven days. DRIVING THE DAY THE WAR PRESIDENT: Donald Trump will be back in the Situation Room with his top intelligence officials this morning as expectation grows of an imminent U.S. strike on Iran. As Playbook told you yesterday, the president is leaning firmly toward military action to take out Iran's nuclear facilities — but insists he won't make a final call until the very last moment. In the meantime, America continues to build up military firepower within striking distance of Iran … while Europe launches a last-minute diplomatic bid to avert war. Quote of the day: 'I have ideas as to what to do,' Trump said during an impromptu Oval Office press huddle yesterday afternoon. 'I like to make a final decision one second before it's due.' He's not kidding: It's worth recalling how, in 2019, Trump was minutes away from ordering airstrikes against Iran before pulling the plug at the final moment, with the planes literally in the sky. (The NYT reported at the time that Trump 'liked the 'command' of approving the strike, but also the decisiveness of calling it off.') And while today's situation is too serious for TACO jokes, it's worth remembering too what we've learned from Trump's on/off tariff moves — that this president likes to build up extreme leverage before suddenly moving to cut a deal. But let's be clear: That is definitely not the signal coming out of the administration this morning, as multiple outlets are now reporting. WSJ's Alex Ward and colleagues say Trump has approved final attack plans on Iran, but has yet to give the final green light. ABC's Mary Bruce and colleagues confirmed the story and say Trump is 'getting comfortable' with the idea of a targeted strike. Bloomberg's Stephanie Lai and colleagues have got wind of 'potential plans' for an attack this coming weekend. 'The next week is going to be very big,' Trump said yesterday. 'Maybe less than a week.' SCOOP: And now read this: A senior White House official has given my Playbook colleague Dasha Burns a glimpse inside the president's thinking, as he mulls perhaps the most momentous decision of his presidency. This well-placed person says Trump is very conscious of the moment he finds himself in. 'He's in his last term of his presidency,' the official said. 'He may or may not see a window to do something that is something he's always believed is right and is important for the world, and has the added benefit of being legacy-building. And this is a window. It's never existed before. It will likely never exist again insofar as he can do anything about it. So while he has that window, he's going to take a shot, even if it is not something that everybody agrees with.' Nuclear fallout: It's certainly true that attacking Iran is not something that everybody agrees with — a snap WaPo poll last night found 45 percent of Americans are against military strikes, vs. 25 percent in support. Most importantly for Trump, the issue continues to cleave his supporters down the middle, as this viral diatribe from Candace Owens neatly illustrates. It was striking, too, to see Theo Von — who famously interviewed Trump last year on what is the fourth-biggest podcast in the U.S., per Spotify — come out against military action yesterday. Here's the clip But but but: Trump remains unfazed, the senior official quoted above tells Dasha, and confident his supporters will back him to the hilt. 'He's always aware [of the criticism],' the person said. 'He'll bring people along … Some people are trying to shape the discourse a little bit, but he's the primary shaper of discourse at the macro level, and perhaps the micro too.' And there's also this: 'People say we've got to keep the coalition together,' the official added. 'Well, if you're Donald Trump, who, in your heart, knows you're not running again — do you? Or do you just have to do what's right? He is primarily focused on doing what he thinks is right for the country, and what he always wanted to do for the country.' Who Trump listens to: WaPo's Warren Strobel and colleagues have confirmed POLITICO's Tuesday night scoop that DNI Tulsi Gabbard is on the outs — and added a must-read extra layer of juice: They say Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is also being frozen out of key decisions. They cite two current U.S. officials who say U.S. Central Command chief Erik Kurilla — profiled by POLITICO yesterday — and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine 'have taken the lead on discussing military options with Trump, largely sidestepping Hegseth and his team at the Pentagon.' Ouch. Brutal quote: 'Nobody is talking to Hegseth,' one official tells WaPo. 'There is no interface operationally between Hegseth and the White House at all.' Naturally, Hegseth's team is pushing back hard. Speaking of the military: One of the (many) remarkable things about 2025 is the ability to watch America's military build-up in the Middle East in real time. The most fearsome air force in the world is currently being tracked by a bunch of online enthusiasts as it traverses the globe — and then filmed whenever it stops to refuel. Your Playbook author got mildly hypnotized last night by some British planespotter's popular livestream of USA F-22 Raptors arriving to refuel in the U.K., en route to the Middle East. (You can watch them coming in to land around 20 minutes in, if you're so inclined.) But there's been no sighting yet … Of those all-important B-2s, the stealth bombers capable of carrying bunker-busting bombs. Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo report that Trump has specifically asked his military advisers whether these weapons are genuinely capable of destroying Iran's flagship nuclear facility, which is buried under a mountainside at Fordo. 'Pentagon officials told Trump they're confident,' Axios reports. 'But it's not clear Trump was totally convinced.' Might he yet hold back? Plan B: Axios reckons the Israelis told the Trump administration that while they may not be able to reach deep enough into the mountain to blow up Fordo with bombs, they could potentially 'do it with humans' … which is all getting a little bit James Bond. Meanwhile in Europe: A frantic last-ditch diplomacy effort is underway to offer the Iranians a way out. The foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain plan to hold nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart on Friday in Geneva, a German diplomatic source told Reuters. It says the talks 'are taking place in coordination with the United States' … If there is to be an alternative route out of this crisis, this just might be it. And elsewhere in the world … Other brutal wars continue to play out, while attention is fixed on Iran. Which is fortunate for guys like Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was meant to be under pressure to agree a ceasefire but instead has ramped up nightly attacks on residential apartment blocks across Ukraine. (Just watch this video, via the Kyiv Independent.) And it's fortunate too for Netanyahu, with nobody now paying much attention to his latest incursion into Gaza — where the United Nations yesterday warned of the 'senseless killings' of starving Palestinians as they queue for food. Reuters reports at least 140 people were killed by Israeli airstrikes and gunfire in the past 24 hours. AND NOW … TO POLITICS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Megapoll klaxon: A new 8,000-person megapoll shared with Playbook offers important lessons for both parties ahead of next year's midterms. The new MRP [Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification] poll by Stack Data Strategy has the Democrats on course to win a narrow majority in the House next year — and puts Trump underwater in his handling of the economy. So far, so predictable. But but but: In the underlying data, there are significant crumbs of comfort for the GOP that suggest Trump could yet bring swing voters around ahead of November 2026. On his handling of the economy, Trump's numbers remain far worse than during his first term, with 35 percent approving vs. 41 percent disapproving. There's no sugar-coating that. But when asked about Trump's assertion that the short-term turbulence will be 'worth it in the long-run,' 42 percent of voters agreed vs. 37 percent who disagreed. And this was true across the vast majority of marginal House districts. So swing voters could be more open to Trump's economic messaging than Dems perceive … if the economy picks up. And there's more: The poll also highlights a small but significant portion of registered Democrats who are drawn to Trump's economic nationalism. An eye-catching 22 percent of Dems said the president's handling of the economy makes them more likely to support the Republican candidate in their district in the midterms — despite the chaos of the past three months. (Caveat: There will of course be real-world economic data between now and November 2026 that shifts these numbers either way.) Trump card: There was even greater Democratic (and independent) support for Trump's approach to immigration, suggesting opposition attacks on his controversial deportations are not widely resonating. In total, 49 percent of voters approved of the administration's handling of immigration, vs. 33 percent who disapproved. Strikingly, a quarter of all Kamala Harris 2024 voters approved of the president's immigration policy. That's quite a number. (Another caveat: This poll was in the field for almost three weeks, but ended just before the anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles that provoked Trump to send in the National Guard. It's untested how those events affected voters' views.) BILL WATCH: Stack's findings on the 'big, beautiful bill' also contained more positive snippets for the GOP than several smaller polls published this week — including this bleak offering yesterday from Fox News — which all found broad disapproval for the legislation. Stack polled the bill's individual measures using what the firm believes to be neutral language and found net support for most of the bill's individual measures. The 2026 messaging war: Cuts to Medicaid remain the most-divisive aspect, splitting largely down party lines — although Americans do appear open to the idea of Medicaid reform. When asked about new restrictions on Medicaid, including work requirements, 42 percent of voters were supportive vs. 32 percent opposed. It's worth noting previous polls have found strong public opposition to what Dems say will be the real-world impacts of cuts, such as less funding for hospitals or care being stripped from the needy, which suggests the messaging war over Medicaid — i.e. which party can best define these cuts — could be an important theme in 2026. Let's not get carried away: Trump's numbers on the economy are still bad. The Dems should still be anyone's favorites to win back the House — if not the Senate — next year. But the underlying data suggests voters' views are less cut and dry than basic poll questions sometimes suggest. And of course, there's still a long way to go. NEWS FROM THE WILDERNESS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Chair in the hot seat: Less than five months into his time as head of the DNC, Ken Martin's tenure as chair is 'engulfed by bitter infighting,' with DNC members describing him as 'weak and whiny' and calling his leadership 'disappointing,' POLITICO's Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider report this morning. There's the messaging problem: 'We're in the most serious existential crisis with Donald Trump both at home and abroad — and with the biggest political opportunity in a decade,' says former Obama-era White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel. 'And the DNC has spent six months on a firing squad in the circle, and can't even fire a shot out. And Trump's world is a target-rich environment.' There's the organizational problem: Martin's DNC has seen two major labor leaders — AFT President Randi Weingarten and AFSCME President Lee Saunders — quit their posts with the committee, a major controversy erupt over now-ousted Vice Chair David Hogg's pledge to primary 'ineffective' Dems, and a swell of infighting after Martin purged more than a dozen officials from the DNC's influential rules and bylaws committee. And then there's the money problem: The cash crunch is so bad that DNC leaders are considering borrowing money to pay the committee's bills, NYT's Shane Goldmacher and Reid Epstein report. Major donors have been reluctant to give under Martin's tenure, a hesitance that has deepened as Martin 'has still not spoken with' a number of them. From January through April, the party's 'total cash reserves shrank by $4 million.' Meanwhile, the RNC's 'coffers swelled by roughly $29 million.' For his part … Martin acknowledged to the Times that his efforts to rebuild the party had been 'overshadowed by some of this inside baseball stuff,' and attributed some of the grumbling about his leadership to sour grapes. 'I know there's a lot of people that are carrying grudges, that are still litigating the campaign that their person didn't win,' he said. 'I am not one of those people.' BEST OF THE REST TODAY'S BUZZIEST READ: The NYT is out with a 3,500-word profile on one half of what used to be the ultimate White House power couple — Katie and Stephen Miller. She was operating as Elon Musk's spokeswoman; he was (and remains) the driving force behind Trump's hard-line immigration policy. 'Now, Mr. Musk is gone — or out of Washington, anyway,' NYT's Matt Flegenheimer writes. 'And life in the home of Katie and Stephen Miller has gotten complicated.' I'll bet it has. Knowing Katie Miller: 'A relentless operator often publicly defined by her relationships to others but long determined to leave her own mark on the capital, Ms. Miller finds herself buffeted by the flammable men who had empowered her in the first place,' Flegenheimer writes. 'Many who know Ms. Miller have described her as more of a chameleonic aide than a consistent ideologue in the Stephen Miller mold — the sort of figure most comfortable speaking with the cover of someone else's voice.' SPEAKING OF MUSK: He was back on political X last night with a choice barb for White House personnel chief Sergio Gor — reportedly the guy who got Musk's pick for NASA chief, Jared Isaacman, nixed at the eleventh hour, triggering the final Musk/Trump breakup. 'He's a snake,' Musk complained to his 220 million followers. Musk is also still producing negative drug tests, for those who are interested. RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles made it clear to Senate Republicans yesterday: The administration is adamant about passing the GOP megabill by July 4 — even as many lawmakers 'cast doubt on whether it will be possible to move that fast,' POLITICO's Jordain Carney reports. Majority Leader John Thune is still eyeing the middle of next week for an initial procedural vote on the measure. Speaker Mike Johnson has already signaled he might cancel the House's planned recess ahead of the July Fourth holiday. The prickly problems: As senators hammer out the details of their version of the bill, a group of so-called Medicaid moderates — including Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) — are working with Thune and others to broker a compromise on proposed Medicaid changes they fear would devastate rural hospitals, Jordain and Robert King report. But that, of course, could complicate the House math. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Endorsement watch: The Congressional Black Caucus PAC — which operates with the goal of increasing the number of Black members in Congress — is jumping into the race to replace retiring Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, endorsing Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), POLITICO's Shia Kapos writes in. Kelly is locked in a crowded race for the seat along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.). TRIGGER HAPPY: As the Trump administration works to shrink down the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the DOJ announced yesterday it will eliminate 541 of the estimated 800 inspectors who monitor federally licensed gun dealers and ensure regulations are followed, NYT's Glenn Thrush reports. 'A.T.F. officials, law enforcement groups and gun control activists see such routine monitoring as a fundamental safeguard against abuses that have led some retail outlets to become sources for criminals and straw purchasers paid to buy guns.' TALK OF THE TOWN JD Vance joined — and was quickly booted from — Bluesky, apparently just to troll the libs. Good times. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Tuesday night at EU Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė's residence for the EU Alumni Reunion 2025 with a concert by Wicked Game: Halimah Najieb-Locke, Everett Eissenstat, Shiyana Gunasekara, Irene Mingasson, Adriana Brassart, Christina Sevilla, Steve Rochlin, Jack Doll and Michael Mucchetti. — SPOTTED at Consumer Bankers Association's media happy hour last night: Lindsey Johnson, Billy Rielly, Weston Loyd, Molly Meiners, Stephanie Nye, Eileen Kelly, Katy O'Donnell, Evan Weinberger, Claire Williams, Stephanie Dhue, Karen James Sloan, Ian McKendry, Evan Lapiska, Jeff Naft, Brooke Nethercott, Flo Scott, Rachel Stephens, Brendan Pedersen, Rob Sumner, Lauren Williams, Danielle Smotkin and Ali Hattamer. MEDIA MOVES — Bloomberg is adding Liam Knox as an education reporter and Katy O'Donnell as a housing reporter. Knox currently is a reporter at Inside Higher Ed. O'Donnell currently is a senior reporter at POLITICO covering financial services. TRANSITIONS — Nick Alexander is now a legislative assistant for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). He previously was a legislative correspondent for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). … Jacob Downs is now press secretary for Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.). He most recently was press assistant for Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) … Reuters' Jeff Mason … Anne Gearan … Alex Kisling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies … Marcus Brauchli … Aimee Strudwick Gilroy … Axios' Alex Isenstadt … POLITICO's Laura Maggi … Michael Akin … Christina Ruffini … CyberScoop's Tim Starks … David Di Martino … Patrick Rooney … Ben Castagnetti of Sen. Maria Cantwell's (D-Wash.) office … Hodan Omaar … Mary Dalrymple of Eagle Hill Consulting … Mike Naple … former Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) … former SEC Chair Mary Schapiro (7-0) … Michael Robbins … Melissa Cooke … Zac Rutherford of Rep. Diana Harshbarger's (R-Tenn.) office … Michelle Ringuette … Actum's Alexander Rauda … Jennifer Hazelton … Emily Hoffman… Julia Palomino-Causey and Daniel Causey … Mary Carpenter of the Nuclear Energy Institute … Treasury's Rebecca Karabus … Tate Mitchell of Sen. Tim Sheehy's (R-Mont.) office Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
Politico
2 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Trump's next move on Iran
Presented by With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On today's Playbook Podcast, Jack is joined by Nahal Toosi, POLITICO's senior foreign affairs correspondent, to discuss the latest developments in Iran. Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, wondering how on earth we're not even half way through the week. In today's Playbook … — No announcement yet on Iran … but Playbook has the goods on where Trump might be headed. — Meet the hawkish Middle East general who's won the ear of the Trump administration. — How DNI Tulsi Gabbard fell out of favor with the White House at a critical moment. DRIVING THE DAY RALLY AROUND THE FLAG(POLES): Iran and Israel traded further blows overnight as the world awaits President Donald Trump's decision on joining the war. As dawn broke in Tehran, there had been no sign yet of U.S. military intervention, and no late-night statement from the president either — beyond various off-topic Truth Social posts, including one announcing 'beautiful' 100-foot flagpoles will be installed on the White House lawns today. (Old Glory should be raised at about 11 a.m., if you're keen to watch.) But behind the scenes, expectations are growing that Trump is indeed ready to send U.S. bombers into Iran. SCOOP — Direction of travel: 'The movement right now is away from diplomacy and toward U.S. involvement,' a Trump administration official tells my Playbook colleague Dasha Burns. 'We are moving toward taking out Iranian nuclear facilities.' If confirmed, it would mark a seismic moment in Trump's presidency. The world will be watching closely in the hours ahead. Timing is everything: As we know, any U.S. intervention would likely involve USAF B-2 bombers flying stealth missions to destroy Iran's largest nuclear sites, including the sprawling underground network at Fordo. AP reports each B-2 bomber 'would have to make the 30-hour round trip from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, refueling multiple times' — which might explain why we've seen no direct U.S. action just yet. But here's the key point: The White House firmly believes U.S. involvement can be restricted to a series of tactical strikes against specific facilities, without descending into an extended war. 'No one in the West Wing is talking regime change,' the same administration official tells Dasha. 'It's not regime change. It's taking out their nukes.' Good luck with that: It's certainly possible the U.S. could deliver carefully targeted strikes against Iran's nuclear sites with no real comeback. After all, Iran's most powerful allies, Russia and China, have been largely muted so far, and the already-weakened Iranian regime may decide it's safest to avoid an escalation that may further loosen its grip on the country. But equally — it's easier to start a war than to end one, as Gabriel García Márquez famously wrote. And we've seen these things get out of hand before. And then there's this: 'It's important to remember Iran has ways of fighting back beyond weapons,' POLITICO's senior foreign affairs correspondent, Nahal Toosi, emails Playbook to say. 'A former Western intelligence official told me the spy community suspects the Islamist regime in Tehran has sleeper cells in various countries to carry out attacks if it feels an existential threat. The regime also could round up Americans in Iran and effectively hold them hostage — as it has done in the past.' (There's more from Nahal on today's Playbook Podcast.) FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A name you should know: Within Trump's wider orbit, one largely unheralded voice has become a central player in driving U.S. policy toward Iran — a hawkish general known (for obvious reasons) as 'The Gorilla.' Gen. Erik Kurilla, chief of U.S. Central Command, has 'played an outsized role in the escalating clashes between Tehran and Israel,' POLITICO's Jack Detsch and Paul McLeary write this morning. Kurilla warfare: Officials say Kurilla has the ear of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and that almost every demand he's made for more aircraft carriers and fighter planes in the Middle East has been approved — despite the concerns of senior colleagues, including Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine and Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby. 'If the senior military guys come across as tough and warfighters, Hegseth is easily persuaded to their point of view,' says one former official. And Kurilla 'has been very good at getting what he wants.' Watching brief: Hegseth and Caine are both set to appear before a Senate committee at 9:30 a.m. SCOOP — Falling out of favor: One voice considerably less likely to influence the Iran conversation is that of DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who has fallen badly out of favor with the president, POLITICO's Rachael Bade and colleagues revealed last night. They report Trump was incensed by Gabbard's cryptic three-minute video last week warning the world about nuclear annihilation — a clip that largely bemused D.C. at the time, but was seen inside the White House as a rebuke to Trump over what was about to unfold in Iran. 'I don't think he dislikes Tulsi as a person,' one senior administration official tells POLITICO. 'But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn't like it when people are off message.' The coolness of relations was evident again on Tuesday night, when Trump was briskly dismissive of Gabbard's recent warning that Iran was not actually trying to build a nuclear bomb. 'I don't care what she said,' the president told reporters on the flight home from Canada. 'I think they were very close to having a weapon.' Pushback: Gabbard's team pushed back last night, with one ally describing our story as 'clickbait.' The White House said in a statement it has confidence in its national security team. Interestingly, VP JD Vance's team also contacted POLITICO, unprompted, to voice his support. 'Tulsi Gabbard is a veteran, a patriot, a loyal supporter of President Trump, and a critical part of the coalition he built in 2024,' Vance said. DASHA REPORTS — Rattled nerves: Indeed, it seems the reaction of anti-war Trump supporters is the thing really animating those close to the president. Dasha tells Playbook there are already sprawling text chains bouncing around D.C. between White House officials and allies, debating the merits of military action. 'MAGA world has angst,' the administration official quoted at the top of this newsletter tells her. 'Word is we have to rally around POTUS to protect him … [There's] big concern that this is the first big issue that could split the base.' And therein lies the key political risk for Trump, beyond something going badly wrong over Iranian skies. It's been rare that you could slip even a cigarette paper between Trump and his MAGA movement this past 10 years. Could another Middle East bombing campaign be a moment parts of his movement peel away? It's possible: Die-hard supporters like Laura Loomer are already going around collecting names of the 'shit talking' right-wingers who have turned on Trump over Iran, which doesn't bode well for harmony. And there's no doubt plenty of on-off supporters like Dave Smith (of Joe Rogan fame) are enraged at the prospect of military action. 'He'll lose his coalition on this,' a fuming Smith said this week. It's worth looking at the lengthy explainers offered yesterday by two of Trump's most loyal social media warriors, Vance and Charlie Kirk, to see how the administration is trying to win the MAGA base round. Expect plenty more in the days ahead. Splits on the right: In the meantime, there's no better illustration of the right's big schism over Iran than the preview clips of anti-war podcaster Tucker Carlson interviewing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) yesterday. The full interview is out later today, but the segments released last night have already gone viral — especially this one of Carlson calling out Cruz for not knowing basic facts about Iran's population. Liberal types are lapping it all up. FIRE AND ICE FROM THE WEST SIDE: As tensions escalate on the international stage, the pressures on the streets of Los Angeles have eased sufficiently. Last night, LA Mayor Karen Bass lifted the downtown curfew in place since last week's protests against ICE, the LA Times' Noah Goldberg reports. Bass touted the curfew as a success 'in protecting stores, restaurants, businesses and residential communities,' while vowing that she is 'prepared to reissue a curfew if needed.' But the troops can stay: 'A federal appeals court appears poised to permit President Donald Trump's deployment of National Guard troops in Los Angeles to continue uninterrupted, despite the protests of California Gov. Gavin Newsom,' POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. A three-judge panel from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals panel features two Trump appointees and Biden appointee; all three 'appeared openly skeptical of California's position that courts can second-guess Trump's determination that immigration protests in Los Angeles had amounted to a potential 'rebellion' against the government.' TO THE EAST COAST: ICE officers arrested New York City Comptroller (and progressive mayoral candidate) Brad Lander yesterday after he linked arms with a man they were trying to detain at a federal building in Manhattan, per AP's Cedar Attanasio. After roughly four hours in custody, Lander was released, POLITICO's Jeff Coltin and colleagues report, and left the building with Gov. Kathy Hochul, who came to the facility to intervene on his behalf. Charge it? While Hochul told reporters that it was her understanding that Lander would not face charges, Nicholas Biase, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said that the office was 'continuing to investigate' Lander's actions, and vowing to 'prosecute violations of federal law.' The arrest threw a proverbial curveball into the city's Democratic mayoral primary, as POLITICO's Emily Ngo and colleagues report, with Lander's arrest upstaging frontrunners Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani in a race that 'has become increasingly fluid in the homestretch' ahead of the June 24 election. Even so, Lander has some catching up to do — a Marist poll released overnight finds Cuomo with a steady but shrinking lead over Mamdani, with Lander in a distant third place. With friends like these …: POLITICO's Abhinanda Bhattacharyya and Jeff Coltin have a fascinating piece out this morning looking at how many of Cuomo's top endorsements have come from people who publicly condemned him four years ago when he stepped down as New York governor in disgrace. THE ECONOMY FED UP: The Federal Reserve makes its latest announcement on interest rates at 2 p.m., with Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to make public remarks at 2:30 p.m. And given nobody expects a cut today, we'll presumably get the first angry Truth Social post from inside the White House shortly after that. What to watch for: 'Among the biggest things to watch will be whether Federal Open Market Committee members stick with their previous forecast of two rate cuts this year,' CNBC's Jeff Cox previews. The agency has kept rates steady since Trump took office, with the last rate cut in December 2024, but Powell and other officials have signaled that they may make a move once economic concerns around Trump's tariff battle resolve. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — TRADING SPACES: You won't find too many mainstream economists making the case for Trump's tariffs. But Stephen Miran, the head of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, does just that in a newly published interview with POLITICO's Victoria Guida. He says the U.S. has enough leverage to make foreign trading partners eat the cost of tariffs, leading to higher revenue for the U.S. government and supply chains more aligned with America's national interests. But for that to work, 'foreign firms have to believe that, unless they capitulate, U.S. companies really will relocate their supply chains elsewhere,' Victoria writes. 'The recalibration, in other words, will take some time. And that time could come at a price for the economy, as Trump's shifting tariffs and fluid negotiations leave businesses hesitant to take action.' BEST OF THE REST WATCHING BRIEF: It's decision day at the Supreme Court, with the justices due to hand down judgments at 10 a.m. Nobody knows what's coming, but there are still 21 outstanding cases we're expecting rulings on before they head off on their vacations in early July, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein texts Playbook to say. They include Trump's efforts to ban birthright citizenship and restrict the reach of local judges; plus a ruling on Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care for minors. Watch this space. Speaking of SCOTUS: Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has been paid nearly $3 million in a book advance for her memoir, according to a financial disclosure released yesterday. RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is hoping to take a first vote on the GOP megabill by next Wednesday or Thursday, setting up a vote on the final package over the following weekend. But he can only afford to lose the support of three Republicans. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has said he's a 'no' at this point. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) have voiced deep concerns about the bill's impact on rural hospitals, POLITICO's Benjamin Guggenheim and Jordain Carney report. And Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has her own concerns on Medicaid. That leaves the package with a narrow path to passage, especially by July 4. Not too optimistic: 'My guess is it will fail,' predicted Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) when asked about potentially calling votes next week. 'I don't want to see it fail. I want this thing to succeed.' BIDEN WATCH: The Senate Judiciary Republicans will question former White House press secretary Sean Spicer and other witnesses at a 10:15 a.m. hearing over the alleged 'cover-up' of former President Joe Biden's reported decline while in office. FOR YOUR RADAR: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was taken to the hospital yesterday for an allergic reaction, CNN first reported. A DHS spokesperson told POLITICO that Noem was transported there 'out of an abundance of caution' and was 'alert and recovering.' TALK OF THE TOWN SPOTTED: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the Four Seasons in Georgetown with a to-go order from Bourbon Steak. Kennedy can rest easy knowing that Bourbon Steak cooks their fries in duck fat. OUT AND ABOUT — The Fiber Broadband Association, the Rural Broadband Association, the Telecommunications Industry Association and the Wireless Infrastructure Association hosted their annual summer happy hour at Santa Rosa Taqueria on Capitol Hill last night. SPOTTED: Marissa Mitrovich, Colin Andrews, Patrick Lozada, Melissa Newman, Mike Saperstein, Stephen Keegan, Makenzie Shellnutt, Mike Romano, Harsha Mudaliar, Tom Hastings, Al David Saab, Johanna Shelton, John Lin, Asad Ramzanali, Tim Donovan, Bill Wilhelm and Crystal Tully. — SPOTTED last night at Meridian's reception with guest Jacob Helberg at Ned's Club: Belgian Ambassador Frédéric Bernard, Luxembourg Ambassador Nicole Bintner-Bakshian, Dutch Ambassador Birgitta Tazelaar, Latvian Ambassador Elita Kuzma, Greek Ambassador Ekaterini Nassika, Filipino Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez, Liechtenstein Ambassador Georg Sparber, Teresa Carlson, Maryam Mujica, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Joe Bartlett, Michael Kratsios, Yehuda Kaploun, Paolo Zampolli, Ivan Kanapathy, Nick Clemens, Elena Hernandez, Jason Geske, Stewart Barber, Tammy Haddad, Heather Podesta, Anita McBride, Mary Brady, Ashley Callen, Craig Carbone, Jake Denton, Joel Gardner, Karalee Geis, Jimmy Loomis, Parker Magid, James Rockas and Brendan Shields. — The Walt Disney Company and the Motion Picture Association co-hosted a screening last night of 'Elio' to honor officers and officials at the Defense Department. SPOTTED: John Bentivegna, Paul Norris, Tami Radabaugh, Bill Bailey, Troy Dow, Jessica Moore and Larissa Knapp. — SPOTTED at KDCR Partners' welcome reception for recently hired principal Lindsay Garcia: Evan Armstrong, Emily Benack, Courtney Titus Brooks, Judy Brown, Nick Pearson, Nicholas Graham, Aparna Paladugu and Barbara Saverino. TRANSITIONS — Sharmistha Das has rejoined Crowell & Moring as a partner. She most recently was deputy chief of staff and deputy general counsel at DHS. … Samantha Kemp is now director of government affairs at Target. She previously was deputy director of government affairs at Albertsons Companies. … Joshua Kurland is now a partner with Hogan Lovells' international trade and investment practice. He previously was a trial attorney and senior trial counsel at DOJ. … … Catherine Simonsen, Shaoul Sussman, Nicolas Stebinger and Kate Brubacher have launched Simonsen Sussman, a law firm that aims to fill gaps in antitrust enforcement left by the federal government, Reuters' Mike Scarcella reports. Simonsen, Sussman and Stebinger were previously at the FTC, and Brubacher is a former U.S. attorney for Kansas. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Allison Tinsey, senior counsel for the Senate Homeland Security Border Management, Federal Workforce and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee Dems, and Josh Abbott, senior scientist at Rapafusyn Pharmaceuticals, welcomed Claire Marie on June 11. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) … David Drucker … CNN's DJ Judd … Robert O'Brien … Axios' Nick Johnston … Causeway Strategy Group's John McCarthy … Niall Stanage of The Hill … Jim Stinson … MPA's Rachel Alben … Kate Knudson … Devan Cole … Clare Bresnahan English … Will Kinzel … Bert Gómez … Tom Readmond … former Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) … former Sens. Jay Rockefeller ( and Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) … Narric Rome … Daniel Epstein … POLITICO's Isabel Delgado and Amber Ebersohl … Debbie Shore of Share Our Strength … Hattie Hobart of Nature Is Nonpartisan … Dina Powell McCormick … Mark P. Adams … SKDK's Ajashu Thomas … Fred Barbash … Wyatt Detrick Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
Politico
3 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Playbook: Trump's moment of truth
Presented by With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On today's Playbook Podcast, Jack and Dasha discuss war and peace in the Middle East — and the mood inside the White House as Trump departs the G7. Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. In today's Playbook … — Trump swaps the G7 for the Situation Room, with the Middle East on fire. — World holds its breath as Trump weighs missiles vs. diplomacy in Iran. — MAGA world in meltdown over prospect of another foreign war. DRIVING THE DAY THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS: President Donald Trump will gather his closest military advisers in the Situation Room this morning as he weighs perhaps the most consequential decision of his presidency: whether to join Israel's bombardment of Iran. Trump's sudden dash back to D.C. last night, mid-way through the G7 leaders' summit in Canada — and shortly after urging all 10 million residents of Tehran to evacuate the city — gave the unshakable impression that an American attack is now imminent. But we've seen no U.S. military activity as yet, and there's some counter-evidence this morning that the president still hopes to cut a deal. Nobody knows for sure how this plays out. But it's hard to overstate the significance of this moment. American involvement in this war could end Iran's nuclear ambitions, and even topple its autocratic government — reshaping the Middle East for decades to come. But it would be fraught with political risk. The history books are littered with leaders whose reputations never recovered from overseas folly. You hardly need reminding about JFK and the Bay of Pigs; LBJ and Vietnam; George W. Bush and Iraq. Joe Biden's ham-fisted withdrawal from Afghanistan can probably be added to the list. These things can go horribly wrong and are never forgotten. To govern is to choose: The NYT laid out Trump's options last night via a must-read analysis by David Sanger and Jonathan Swan. In essence, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu wants U.S. military assistance to take out one of the central pillars of Iran's nuclear enrichment program — the famous Fordo facility, buried deep in a mountain 100 miles south of Tehran. Received wisdom has it that only USAF 'bunker-busters' — massive bombs weighing the equivalent of several large elephants, purpose-built to tear through mountainsides — could do the job. And that means American pilots flying B-2 stealth bomber raids across Iran. Chance of a lifetime: The U.S. — and Israel — have had Fordo in their sights for the past 15 years, and Iran hawks are urging Trump to grasp a generational opportunity to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities, and perhaps the regime itself. Iran's air defenses look shattered by the sophisticated Israeli attacks of the past few days, and those in favor of U.S. action are telling Trump this is a one-off chance. On the other hand: This is a president who campaigned for years on ending American involvement in overseas wars; a man who, in 2011 and 2012, mockingly claimed then-President Barack Obama was about to start a war with Iran just to distract from his own failings. Only a couple of months ago, his own director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said Iran is 'not building a nuclear weapon.' And this is the self-styled 'dealmaker-in-chief.' Is he really going to flip it all around with a Middle East bombing campaign? Maybe not: Speaking earlier yesterday, Trump had sounded optimistic about cutting a deal. 'I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table where they want to make a deal, and as soon as I leave here, we're going to be doing something,' Trump said at the G7. Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo reported last night the White House was discussing the possibility of a meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Bon chance: Trump's fellow G7 leaders, too, had sounded confident Trump was headed off to engage in diplomacy. French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters: 'There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange. An offer was made especially to get a ceasefire and to then kickstart broader discussions. We have to see now whether the sides will follow.' But but but: Trump's Truth Social feed in the early hours of this morning told a very different picture. 'Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran. Wrong!' Trump wrote at 1:15 a.m. ET, while flying home on Air Force One. 'He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!' Direct from the source: 'I have not reached out to Iran for 'Peace Talks' in any way, shape, or form,' Trump said in a 5:20 a.m. post on Truth Social. 'If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!!' Inside the White House this morning, aides say Trump is taking advice from a range of sources — military, intelligence and civilian — as he weighs his options, my Playbook colleague Dasha Burns texts in to say. They stress Trump has long been consistent in his messaging on Iran — that it can never acquire nuclear weapons, no matter what. And if you think that sounds like a surreptitious threat, you'd be right. An array of trusted voices in the Situation Room will offer Trump their views. They include Marco Rubio, his once-hawkish secretary of State and national security adviser, who flew back with Trump from Calgary last night; VP JD Vance, an avowed isolationist who has long preached caution in the Middle East; and Dan Caine, Trump's new — and highly inexperienced — chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. More from Dasha: 'The White House is engaged in a process of deterrence,' a person close to the White House texts Dasha to say. 'It only works if he's willing to go through with the threat. And he almost certainly is.' This person added: 'Trump has been consistent that Iran can't have a nuclear bomb. Given the state of Iran's air defenses there are a lot of options … ' Again, it sounds like a drumbeat toward war. While we're talking about war … This seems like an opportune moment to remind ourselves (and the White House) that it's Congress that actually holds the power to declare war. Last night, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) put forward a bipartisan effort to force Trump to seek congressional approval before attacking Iran. Their War Powers Resolution will be introduced today and has already drawn support from a handful of independently minded representatives from both sides of the House. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) put forward a similar measure in the Senate yesterday. You can expect plenty of colorful debate over the days ahead. But the real battle for control is happening inside the MAGA movement, where the prospect of Trump attacking Iran is causing deep divisions. Trump's repeated attacks on the MAGA-friendly broadcaster Tucker Carlson — he was at it again last night on Truth Social — have upset staunch allies like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who was out defending Carlson on X. It's worth listening too to Steve Bannon — who had Carlson as his guest on the 'War Room' podcast yesterday — and just how unsettled he sounds about where Trump is at. Bannon fears Trump and his allies are being overwhelmed by warmongering Deep State forces and that the Trump 2.0 project is now at a critical juncture. Die-hard supporters, like Laura Loomer, are in turn attacking Carlson, Bannon and co. The whole thing is a mess. Back at the G7 … The remaining six leaders will be feeling a little more relaxed — if a lot more irrelevant — in Trump's absence. Canadian PM Mark Carney can boast he at least got an agreement to aim for a U.S.-Canada trade deal within 30 days, though British PM Keir Starmer went one better (again) and bagged an extension to his existing trade agreement. Starmer did, however, have to ferret around on the floor to scoop up the paperwork — you will struggle to find a more telling image of the modern-day 'special relationship.' But the biggest loser from it all … is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had been due to bag some precious face-time with Trump today. The U.S. president's noises-off at the summit — rejecting fresh sanctions on Russia and bemoaning the decision to throw Russian President Vladimir Putin out of the then-G8 in 2014 — were not the interventions of a man preparing to get tough on Russia. And by canceling his appointment with Zelenskyy, Trump makes his priorities crystal clear. Meanwhile in Kyiv: Putin continues to kill innocent civilians as they sleep in their beds, night after night. Here's a video of a Russian drone striking a residential apartment block in the early hours of this morning. At least 15 people were killed across the city last night, per Zelenskyy. MINNESOTA FALLOUT SECURITY CONCERNS: Senators will receive a classified security briefing today via Capitol Police and the Senate sergeant at arms, days after the brutal shootings of two state lawmakers and their partners in Minnesota. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is also set to hold a virtual briefing. The sessions come as congressional Democrats continue to sound the alarm on the need to heighten security for members. Hit list: New details from authorities revealed that a number of lawmakers appeared on suspect Vance Boelter's alleged hit list, per Axios' Andrew Solender. Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Kelly Morrison (D-Minn.) and Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) were potential targets, but so were other members of Congress ranging from Ohio to Wisconsin to Texas. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) canceled her town hall in Michigan yesterday 'out of an abundance of caution,' Solender reports. The list was all Democrats — in what acting U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson called 'the stuff of nightmares,' NPR's Meg Anderson and colleagues report. The fallout: The killings of state House Democratic leader Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark Hortman sparked outrage on the Hill and fears about a growing trend of political violence, NOTUS' Riley Rogerson and colleagues report. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asked Capitol Police to ramp up security for Smith and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Roll Call's Justin Papp reports. House Dems are also calling on Speaker Mike Johnson to increase funding for members' security, per POLITICO's Nick Wu and Katherine Tully-McManus. Face to face: Smith confronted Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) in a hallway off the Senate floor yesterday, blasting him for blaming the assassination on 'Marxists' on his social media, POLITICO's Jordain Carney and Calen Razor report. 'I needed him to hear from me directly what impact I think his cruel statement had on me, his colleague,' Smith told reporters after the confrontation. Lee refused to comment on his posts or the conversation, as captured in a video by NBC's Brennan Leach. And there's more: One of Smith's top aides penned a scathing email to Lee's staff saying the senator 'exploited the murder of a lifetime public servant and her husband to post some sick burns about Democrats.' Read the email ON THE HILL FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The White House is ramping up messaging on the reconciliation bill today by sending all Senate and House Republicans a one-pager. The document cites a Council of Economic Advisers analysis that shows how much average households in each state would see their wages and take-home pay increase in the long term. Read it here Reconcilable differences: Senate Republicans will meet at 12:30 p.m. for their weekly lunch at a pivotal moment for the party's megabill. After the Senate Finance Committee released its all-important bill text yesterday, Republicans in both chambers are still digesting some surprising changes — but Senate GOP leaders nonetheless hope to pass this reconciliation behemoth next weekend. Inside the bill: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo's (R-Idaho) legislation makes a number of alterations to the House bill, with both moderates and hardliners finding items to celebrate and rue, POLITICO's Brian Faler reports. Without a dollar amount for the cost yet, it's not clear whether this comes in under the House's $4 trillion budget. Here's a rapid-fire rundown of what you need to know: The big questions outstanding: Can it get through the Senate? Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he still opposes the bill, while one senator warned that 'we're further away than we were before,' per Axios' Hans Nichols and colleagues. And 'immediate reaction from lawmakers across the ideological spectrum … indicated leadership has a ways to go,' POLITICO's Jordain Carney and colleagues report. Our Inside Congress colleagues have more on the conflicts facing Senate Majority Leader John Thune. And what about the House? Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) was among those suggesting he wouldn't accept the new Medicaid cuts. ELSEWHERE IN CONGRESS: At 10:30 a.m., DNI Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe will testify before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee. And the Senate will vote in the late afternoon on the GENIUS Act, the landmark cryptocurrency bill that would create the first-ever (and industry-friendly) regulatory structure for digital assets known as stablecoins. BEST OF THE REST DEPORTATION U-TURN: Immigration raids will now once again target farms, hotels and restaurants — after DHS yesterday reversed the updated guidance the Trump administration shared with immigration officers just last week, WaPo's Carol Leonnig and colleagues scooped. The move undoes the pullback of enforcement in agricultural sectors that rely on migrant workers, which was reportedly pushed by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller had privately opposed the exceptions. Chilling effect: The 'reversal of the reversal,' as The Bulwark's Sam Stein put it, will no doubt ripple across agricultural and hospitality industries. Divisions over migrant laborers run deep — both support from the agriculture industry and from voters in favor of mass deportations helped launch Trump to his second term, POLITICO's Samuel Benson and colleagues report. The tensions came to a head as top industries lobbied for a change: 'Farm and meatpacking representatives argued that labor shortfalls loomed if current policy continued, and that the result could be higher food prices,' WSJ's Arian Campo-Flores and colleagues report. By the numbers: Less than 10 percent of immigrants arrested by ICE this fiscal year have serious criminal convictions like rape or murder, per CNN's Casey Tolan and colleagues. Three-quarters had no criminal convictions beyond immigration or traffic offenses. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — O, Canada: POLITICO's Jonathan Martin is up with a new piece from Boston this morning detailing a confab that brought a group of American governors and Canadian premiers together for a private and then public conversation (and at times commiseration) about Trump's tariffs. 'It was a largely amiable, at times awkward and bizarre-if-fitting culmination of the Trump Decade: Who else could hurl America into a fight with our friendly neighbor to the north, eh? Nobody was amused under the golden dome on Beacon Hill, though.' JUDICIARY SQUARE: There was a flurry of activity in America's legal system yesterday, but none more dramatic than in Reagan-appointed federal judge William Young's courtroom. He barred NIH cuts to research related to racial minorities and LGBTQ+ people, and blasted the Trump administration's orders as amounting to open discrimination against those groups. 'I would be blind not to call it out,' Young said. 'Have we fallen so low? Have we no shame?' POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Danny Nguyen write that it 'was an extraordinary departure for a federal judge of any era.' AS HURRICANE SEASON ARRIVES: 'Cuts to FEMA's storm prep program hammer communities that voted for Trump,' by CBS' Michael Kaplan and colleagues: 'A CBS News investigation found two-thirds of counties that have lost funding from this FEMA program supported President Trump in the 2024 election.' VACCINE SIREN: Senior CDC scientist Fiona Havers resigned, saying that she no longer trusted the Trump administration to use the Covid or RSV hospitalization data she oversaw 'objectively' or assess it 'with appropriate scientific rigor,' Reuters' Julie Steenhuysen scooped. Meanwhile, all 17 members of the immunization advisory committee fired by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke out in a Journal of the American Medical Association editorial. They warned that the dismissals and other changes 'may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people's access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses.' KFILE STRIKES AGAIN: 'Pirro endorsed threat to criminally investigate January 6 prosecutors in office she now runs,' by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck TALK OF THE TOWN A federal jury found that Mike Lindell defamed a former security director at Dominion Voting Systems, and ordered him to pay $2.3 million. Cristiano Ronaldo signed a jersey with a personal message for Donald Trump ('Playing for Peace'), presented to the president by António Costa. The NAACP is excluding Trump from its national convention in North Carolina next month — the first time in the organization's 116-year history that a sitting president has not been invited, per AP. IN MEMORIAM — 'William Langewiesche, the 'Steve McQueen of Journalism,' Dies at 70,' by NYT's Trip Gabriel: He 'was one of the most prominent long-form nonfiction writers of recent decades. He was an international correspondent for Vanity Fair, a writer-at-large for The New York Times Magazine and a national correspondent for The Atlantic. For 10 years running, from 1999 to 2008, his pieces were finalists for the National Magazine Award, and he won it twice.' PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Print WaPo subscribers will no longer get a standalone Metro section: Matt Murray announced a reshuffle of the paper's sections, combining Metro with Sports and Style some days, though he said the number of stories published will be the same. The changes take effect next week. OUT AND ABOUT — Great Opportunity Policy, a group closely tied to Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), held its annual policy summit at the Mayflower Hotel yesterday. SPOTTED: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, FBI Director Kash Patel, Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Shelley Moore Capito ( Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Paul Singer, Daniel Loeb, Eva Moskowitz, Marc Andreessen, Bill Ackman, Mike Gallagher, Emilie Choi, Arjun Sethi, Heath Tarbert, Ja'Ron Smith, Cory Gardner, Jennifer DeCasper and Jessica Anderson. TRANSITIONS — Mackenzie Martinez is now public affairs adviser at the Commerce Department's International Trade Administration. She previously was comms director for Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.). … The America First Policy Institute is adding Julie Kirchner, Tony Pham and Emilio González to build out its stable of immigration policy experts. … Chad Banghart is now president of the New Tolerance Campaign. He is an RNC and U.S. Chamber of Commerce alum. … … Eric Feder is now local legal initiative director at the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press. He previously was a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine. … Ben Melano is now director of government affairs at the American Podiatric Medical Association. He previously was deputy director of federal affairs at the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. … Vik Ath will be managing director at Climate Solutions Fund. He previously was director of donor comms at Stand Together and is a Steve Daines alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Scott Peters (D-Calif.) … Newt Gingrich … Matt Canter of Global Strategy Group … Matt Miller … Diane Blagman of Greenberg Traurig … Maxwell Nunes … CNBC's Christina Wilkie … Allie Malloy … Maxine Joselow … Will Sommer … Kent Lassman … Paul Steinhauser … Nisha Ramachandran … Conservation International's Miro Korenha … Scott Thuman … Gabe Horwitz … former Reps. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) and Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) … Chris Bedford … POLITICO's Elizabeth Kisiday, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Christina Lei and Samuel Ogozalek … Jessica Boulanger … Boris Abreu ... Katie Grant Drew … CBS' Nicole Domenica Sganga ... PBS NewsHour's Jaywon Choe ... Linda Chavez … Chris Jennings … Precision's Noah Cavicchi … Melissa Sabatine ... former HHS Secretary Alex Azar … Janice Lachance … former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett … Kerri Chyka … Jacob McIntosh of TriNet … Nora Taktajian of Rep. Doris Matsui's (D-Calif.) office (3-0) … Jordan Wells … Dan Hanlon … Lauren Kennedy of Sen. Thom Tillis' (R-N.C.) office … David D'Antonio … Zainab Chaudary of New Heights Communications … former Education Secretary Rod Paige (92) … NewsNation's Blake Burman … Connor Joseph … Ryan Serote of Meguire Whitney … Katie Wright of the Herald Group Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
Politico
4 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
10 years of Trump
Presented by With help from Eli Okun and Bethany Irvine On the Playbook Podcast this morning, Jack and Dasha discuss an extraordinary weekend of news in the run-up to Donald Trump's trip to the G7 summit in Canada — and how the president has shaped all our lives over the past 10 years. Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. A DECADE LIKE NO OTHER: It's 10 years to the day that Trump descended that famous golden elevator in New York's Trump Tower and announced he was running for president. That slow ride down, that first boisterous, rambling press conference; other surreal moments that were met with shrugs of amusement at the time but can now be seen as a turning point in America's history. Trump has dominated the decade that followed — unpredictable, inescapable, among the most consequential political figures of our lives. Nobody saw it coming. But there were hints of what lay ahead, writes my POLITICO colleague Alex Burns, who was there in Trump Tower on June 16, 2015, to watch the drama unfold. 'A few things come to mind,' Alex recalls, via a Slack message to Playbook on Sunday night. 'For starters: The crowd. This was not like the Romney/Santorum/Gingrich events of 2012 or the MAGA rallies that would come later. The people at the base of the escalator were besuited, bejeweled, familiar with the tanning bed. We know them well now — the Trump Hotel/Doral/Bedminster set.' Another: 'In Trump's strutting, meandering speech, there was one earnest digression that lodged in my memory. Trump recalled his long-deceased father warning him away from Manhattan real estate, and said he insisted to his father: 'I've got to go into Manhattan. I've got to build those big buildings. I've got to do it, Dad. I've got to do it.' The line drew zero attention that day … It just captured the core of Trump's grasping, striving, consuming ambition to make it in the big time.' Finally: 'Around the announcement, I spoke with a few Trump associates who proved especially prescient. One, Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy, predicted some Republicans would embrace Trump because they craved access to celebrity culture. Another, Geraldo Rivera, said Trump would do well because he was simply more interesting to watch than Jeb Bush. I didn't quote this at the time, but I have it in my notes: 'He rates,' Geraldo said of Trump. 'That's the bottom line. He rates.'' In today's Playbook … — Relief as police arrest suspect following Minnesota state senator shootings. — Trump meets world leaders at the G7 summit as the Middle East burns. — Trump recasts immigration U-turn as an attack on Dem-held cities. LAST NIGHT IN MINNESOTA WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz hailed the work of law enforcement officers after the suspect in the shooting of two state senators was finally apprehended. Suspected gunman Vance Boelter was captured — after a 48-hour manhunt — in Sibley County, Minnesota, not far from his home, after a police officer saw him fleeing into woodland. Police chiefs said Boelter was armed but gave himself up without a struggle. The Minnesota Star Tribune has a liveblog from the late-night presser. Assassin strikes: The arrest follows the weekend assassinations of Minnesota state House Democratic leader Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark Hortman, who were shot and killed in their home in the early hours of Saturday morning. That attack followed a similar assault earlier in the night on Hortman's colleague and near-neighbor, state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette Hoffman. They both were shot multiple times in their home but survived — as did their daughter Hope, whom Yvette reportedly shielded from incoming fire. Kill list: An apparent list of several dozen targets was discovered, including other Democratic politicians as well as Planned Parenthood locations. But police who rushed to check on the Hortmans following the initial shootings at the Hoffman residence caught the suspect in the act, helping cops to identify him. Walz said last night: 'When the story comes out … the heroic actions by the Hoffman family and their daughter Hope saved countless lives.' Where do we go from here? Congress returns today in a state of shock and alarm after the assassinations, which have left politicians nationwide rattled over personal security. At the request of Senate leaders, the Senate sergeant at arms and Capitol Police are due to brief senators tomorrow, per POLITICO's Jordain Carney. 'We have to reevaluate how we are protecting members of Congress and staffs in the face of rising threats,' Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also hold a virtual briefing tomorrow, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Disagreements in Congress: Despite widespread condemnation of the killings, there are some divides among over how much security is necessary. On a weekend call, rank-and-file House Republicans pressed for concrete steps to beef up security, but one member told Axios that GOP leaders weren't receptive to changes. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said he may force a vote on a rare House 'secret session' to discuss security. Fear at state level: With America's political violence epidemic hitting the state level, legislators are grappling with whether they should continue to have their home addresses publicly posted, NYT's Mitch Smith reports. Others questioned the wisdom of continuing a life devoted to public service. 'Honestly I'm struggling with this news,' Ohio state Sen. Casey Weinstein wrote on Facebook. 'I'm worried for my family. I worry I'm putting them in harm's way by being in office.' The bottom line: Nobody seems to have any idea how to stop this phenomenon spiraling further and further out of control. DRIVING THE DAY WAR SUMMIT: Trump sits down with fellow G7 leaders in Canada this morning as the world grapples with a dizzying array of crises. Top of Trump's mind at the annual G7 summit at Kananaskis, west of Calgary, will be the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where Israel and Iran last night continued to trade barrages of deadly missile strikes. But front and center too will be global trade, immigration and the war in Ukraine, with the White House lining up a series of face-to-face talks with relevant world leaders over the next two days. The first of those … is scheduled for today at 11 a.m. ET (9 a.m. local time) with the summit's host, Canadian PM Mark Carney, and you'd imagine trade will be the central theme. (Trump also has a first bilateral scheduled at this summit with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the other U.S. neighbor bearing the brunt of his tariffs.) Carney will press Trump on defense issues, too, and there should be a chance for reporters to ask both leaders questions at the very top. The only question that matters: Is Trump going to get the U.S. military directly involved with what now looks like an era-defining moment in the Middle East? Some observers believe Iran's regime is teetering on the brink, and that a historic opportunity presents itself. Opponents point to Trump's numerous pledges to end American involvement in foreign wars. 'It's possible we could get involved,' Trump told ABC's Rachel Scott yesterday. 'But we are not at this moment involved.' It was hardly a hard 'no.' This struggle continues to be played out in MAGA world, with commentators as diverse as Newt Gingrich (here) and Laura Loomer (here) pushing for regime change; while opponents like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (here) and Tucker Carlson (basically everywhere) urge America to avoid involvement at all costs. For the time being, Trump seems hopeful the devastating losses suffered by Iran will force its leaders to cut a deal he can herald as a win. Exhibit A: All those extraordinary stories yesterday revealing that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to take out Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This was first revealed by Reuters and then rapidly confirmed by multiple other outlets soon after — and the Trump administration's willingness to have this story out there really does tell its own story. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu did not deny the reports were true when interviewed on Fox News. Latest from the war zone: Israel last night sustained another barrage of Iranian missile strikes as citizens sheltered from the blasts, per Reuters. Once again, residential areas were hit, and minor damage was reported at the U.S. Embassy branch office in Tel Aviv. One extraordinary thing about this conflict is the high-quality video footage of ballistic missile attacks now being captured and instantly shared on social media. So you can see Iraqis watching last night's Iranian missile launches here; and then terrifying first-person videos of the incoming strikes on residential blocks here and here. Not for the faint hearted. Also worth your time: 'Crimes of the Century: How Israel, with the help of the U.S., broke not only Gaza but the foundations of humanitarian law' — a 10,000-word investigation on Israeli conduct in Gaza by NY Mag's Suzy Hansen …. And 'Opinion: Iran's Target Isn't Just Israel. It's Us,' by Mathias Döpfner, chair and CEO of Axel Springer, POLITICO's parent company. Also on Trump's itinerary in Canada … Some kind of progress on the war in Ukraine, given Trump has a bilateral meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scheduled in the next 36 hours — their first face-to-face meeting since that dramatic sit-down in the Vatican on April 26. Expect Zelenskyy to (again) make the case that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing Trump along, and that it's time for the U.S. to get serious on sanctions. But Trump spoke to Putin by phone only this past Saturday, and gave little indication that he's about to change tack. IMMIGRATION NATION DEFINITELY NOT A U-TURN: On his flight to Canada, Trump tried to clarify his latest volte-face on immigration, having instructed ICE officers to stop targeting the agricultural and hospitality industries (per an NYT scoop last Friday). That move was driven by months of pressure from strained industries, conveyed to Trump in a pivotal call by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Axios' Brittany Gibson and colleagues report. But the shift in position was proving predictably unpopular on the MAGA right. Hence … last night's lengthy Truth Social post, which — once you've filtered out the false accusations and the odd conspiracy theory — amounted to a newsy announcement that ICE raids will now be targeted at Democratic-run inner city areas. 'We must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America's largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside,' Trump wrote, the random capitalization all his own work. It looks like a neat way of explaining the pivot away from rural areas. Why it matters: Trump is attempting a tricky balancing act here — delivering on his pledge of the 'biggest mass deportation in history' without damaging key economic sectors or undermining his own support base. The end result may well be more scenes like those we saw in LA last week, which — as Playbook has previously noted — Trump's White House believes played out well for them. Watch this space. Meanwhile in the real world: Last week's high-profile meatpacking plant raid in Omaha, Nebraska, left the business reeling and the city's immigrant population fearful, NBC's Nicole Acevedo reports. But the company also quickly saw a surge of interest in the newly vacant positions. Separately, WaPo's Teo Armus and Rasha Ali have the story of a Sudanese couple, one currently here in the U.S., who had hoped to marry but are now kept apart by Trump's travel ban. The protests: LA was way calmer yesterday, with just 200 people protesting after Saturday's big 'No Kings' demonstrations, per the LA Times. LA police said another 35 people had been arrested during Saturday's protests, bringing the total since June 7 to 561. But tragedy struck in Salt Lake City, Utah, where a 'No Kings' protester died after being shot by someone on the protest's 'peacekeeping team,' who was trying to shoot at a different suspect, per The Salt Lake Tribune. BEST OF THE REST FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Emil Bove's judicial nomination has fractured the conservative legal community, with some establishment critics warning that he'd value loyalty to Trump over the law, POLITICO's Ankush Khardori writes. It's an early flashpoint in what has become a growing divide between MAGA diehards and Federalist Society types, who were allied in Trump's first term. Some prominent conservatives say Bove's record makes his fitness to be a judge questionable. It's not clear yet how he'll fare in the Senate. But as Ankush writes, many of the boundaries Trump is pushing have their roots in arguments by the conservative legal establishment that now questions him. Survey says: An overwhelming majority of Americans continue to believe the president must follow court orders, even as Trump allies threaten a constitutional crisis, per a new NBC poll. Eighty-one percent of voters say the administration has to obey rulings that certain executive actions are illegal, though it's 50/50 among MAGA supporters. 2026 WATCH: There's now 'widespread' chatter among Republicans about whether Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) might not run for reelection, WSJ's John McCormick and Lindsey Wise report, even as Democrats see her as more vulnerable due to her 'we all are going to die' comment, which went viral after a recent town hall. MORE DNC TURMOIL: Top union leaders Randi Weingarten and Lee Saunders both resigned from the DNC, indicating deep disagreements with Chair Ken Martin's leadership of the party, NYT's Shane Goldmacher and Reid Epstein report. The prominent labor leaders had supported Ben Wikler in the DNC chair election, and Weingarten had supported David Hogg's controversial move to back primary challenges. Their departure letters, which warned that the DNC was failing to expand the tent or make sufficient changes, amount to 'a major rebuke' of Martin and 'a significant erosion of trust in the D.N.C.' NATIONALIZATION BY ANOTHER NAME? ''Golden Share' in U.S. Steel Gives Trump Extraordinary Control,' by NYT's Ana Swanson and Lauren Hirsch: 'New details of the agreement show that the structure would give President Trump and his successors a permanent stake in U.S. Steel, significant sway over its board and veto power over a wide array of company actions, an arrangement that could change the nature of foreign investment in the United States. … Activities requiring the president's permission include the company transferring production or jobs outside the United States, closing or idling plants before agreed-upon time frames and making certain changes to how it sources its raw materials.' HACK ATTACK: Multiple WaPo journalists had their emails compromised by a cyberattack that may have originated from a foreign government, WSJ's Dustin Volz and colleagues scooped. Those affected included national security, economic policy and China reporters. TALK OF THE TOWN Tom Carper said he's not a fan of retirement: 'I fear for my country, I fear for democracy. I miss my friends, I miss my colleagues,' he said aboard an Amtrak. AND THE AWARD GOES TO — The Partnership for Public Service is announcing its annual Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals (Sammies) winners ahead of tomorrow's awards ceremony, honoring the federal government's top civil servants at a more fraught moment than ever for that workforce. The winners: The top prize goes to David Lebryk, the longtime Treasury official in charge of government payments, whose work helped recover $7 billion in wrongful payments last year — and who was forced out in January after he refused to give DOGE access to the system. Other honorees include the officials who negotiated Medicare Part D prescription drug prices, created an online passport renewal system, reduced IRS wait times and developed a supercomputer for nuclear simulations. Read about all 23 winning people/teams MEDIA MOVE — Peter Cook is joining NOTUS as senior director of partnerships. He most recently has been director of strategic partnerships at POLITICO. TRANSITIONS — John Barsa is joining Continental Strategy as a partner. He previously was acting USAID administrator in Trump's first term. … Alex Floyd is joining the new anti-Trump war room Defend America Action as rapid response director. He previously was rapid response director at the DNC, and is an Andy Beshear alum. … Lauren Oppenheimer is joining Brunswick Group as a director. She most recently was chief of staff and senior deputy comptroller for public affairs at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. … … Graeme Crews will be senior director of media and public relations at Brady United. He previously was comms director for Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) and the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus. … Valeria Ojeda-Avita will be chief comms officer for BOLD PAC. She previously was deputy chief of staff, senior adviser and comms director for Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.). … Jane Vickers is now a press assistant for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. She most recently was a press assistant for Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook's own Zack Stanton … Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) … Don McGahn … Michael Isikoff … Phil Singer of Marathon Strategies … Liz Bourgeois … NPR's Steve Inskeep … POLITICO's Madison Fernandez, Sophie Gardner, Greta Forslund, Nicole Norman and Cristina Gallotto … Colin Diersing … PBS NewsHour's Rachel Wellford … Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor … Matt Gruda … Indira Lakshmanan … Matthew Bartlett … Mark Tapscott … Frank Sánchez … Rocky Deal … former Rep. Robert Hurt (R-Va.) … Reid Wilson … Angela Kelley … Phil Cox of GP3 Partners and P2 Public Affairs … Jared Kamrass of Technicolor Political … Jim Kim of the American Cleaning Institute … Ryan Yeager Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday's Playbook misstated the number of years that have elapsed since June 2020. It has also been updated to clarify the role played by National Guard military police in the June 2020 federal response to the protests in Lafayette Square.
