Trump's next move on Iran

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With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Jack is joined by Nahal Toosi, POLITICO's senior foreign affairs correspondent, to discuss the latest developments in Iran.
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, wondering how on earth we're not even half way through the week.
In today's Playbook …
— No announcement yet on Iran … but Playbook has the goods on where Trump might be headed.
— Meet the hawkish Middle East general who's won the ear of the Trump administration.
— How DNI Tulsi Gabbard fell out of favor with the White House at a critical moment.
DRIVING THE DAY
RALLY AROUND THE FLAG(POLES): Iran and Israel traded further blows overnight as the world awaits President Donald Trump's decision on joining the war. As dawn broke in Tehran, there had been no sign yet of U.S. military intervention, and no late-night statement from the president either — beyond various off-topic Truth Social posts, including one announcing 'beautiful' 100-foot flagpoles will be installed on the White House lawns today. (Old Glory should be raised at about 11 a.m., if you're keen to watch.) But behind the scenes, expectations are growing that Trump is indeed ready to send U.S. bombers into Iran.
SCOOP — Direction of travel: 'The movement right now is away from diplomacy and toward U.S. involvement,' a Trump administration official tells my Playbook colleague Dasha Burns. 'We are moving toward taking out Iranian nuclear facilities.' If confirmed, it would mark a seismic moment in Trump's presidency. The world will be watching closely in the hours ahead.
Timing is everything: As we know, any U.S. intervention would likely involve USAF B-2 bombers flying stealth missions to destroy Iran's largest nuclear sites, including the sprawling underground network at Fordo. AP reports each B-2 bomber 'would have to make the 30-hour round trip from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, refueling multiple times' — which might explain why we've seen no direct U.S. action just yet.
But here's the key point: The White House firmly believes U.S. involvement can be restricted to a series of tactical strikes against specific facilities, without descending into an extended war. 'No one in the West Wing is talking regime change,' the same administration official tells Dasha. 'It's not regime change. It's taking out their nukes.'
Good luck with that: It's certainly possible the U.S. could deliver carefully targeted strikes against Iran's nuclear sites with no real comeback. After all, Iran's most powerful allies, Russia and China, have been largely muted so far, and the already-weakened Iranian regime may decide it's safest to avoid an escalation that may further loosen its grip on the country. But equally — it's easier to start a war than to end one, as Gabriel García Márquez famously wrote. And we've seen these things get out of hand before.
And then there's this: 'It's important to remember Iran has ways of fighting back beyond weapons,' POLITICO's senior foreign affairs correspondent, Nahal Toosi, emails Playbook to say. 'A former Western intelligence official told me the spy community suspects the Islamist regime in Tehran has sleeper cells in various countries to carry out attacks if it feels an existential threat. The regime also could round up Americans in Iran and effectively hold them hostage — as it has done in the past.' (There's more from Nahal on today's Playbook Podcast.)
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A name you should know: Within Trump's wider orbit, one largely unheralded voice has become a central player in driving U.S. policy toward Iran — a hawkish general known (for obvious reasons) as 'The Gorilla.' Gen. Erik Kurilla, chief of U.S. Central Command, has 'played an outsized role in the escalating clashes between Tehran and Israel,' POLITICO's Jack Detsch and Paul McLeary write this morning.
Kurilla warfare: Officials say Kurilla has the ear of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and that almost every demand he's made for more aircraft carriers and fighter planes in the Middle East has been approved — despite the concerns of senior colleagues, including Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine and Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby. 'If the senior military guys come across as tough and warfighters, Hegseth is easily persuaded to their point of view,' says one former official. And Kurilla 'has been very good at getting what he wants.'
Watching brief: Hegseth and Caine are both set to appear before a Senate committee at 9:30 a.m.
SCOOP — Falling out of favor: One voice considerably less likely to influence the Iran conversation is that of DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who has fallen badly out of favor with the president, POLITICO's Rachael Bade and colleagues revealed last night. They report Trump was incensed by Gabbard's cryptic three-minute video last week warning the world about nuclear annihilation — a clip that largely bemused D.C. at the time, but was seen inside the White House as a rebuke to Trump over what was about to unfold in Iran.
'I don't think he dislikes Tulsi as a person,' one senior administration official tells POLITICO. 'But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn't like it when people are off message.' The coolness of relations was evident again on Tuesday night, when Trump was briskly dismissive of Gabbard's recent warning that Iran was not actually trying to build a nuclear bomb. 'I don't care what she said,' the president told reporters on the flight home from Canada. 'I think they were very close to having a weapon.'
Pushback: Gabbard's team pushed back last night, with one ally describing our story as 'clickbait.' The White House said in a statement it has confidence in its national security team. Interestingly, VP JD Vance's team also contacted POLITICO, unprompted, to voice his support. 'Tulsi Gabbard is a veteran, a patriot, a loyal supporter of President Trump, and a critical part of the coalition he built in 2024,' Vance said.
DASHA REPORTS — Rattled nerves: Indeed, it seems the reaction of anti-war Trump supporters is the thing really animating those close to the president. Dasha tells Playbook there are already sprawling text chains bouncing around D.C. between White House officials and allies, debating the merits of military action. 'MAGA world has angst,' the administration official quoted at the top of this newsletter tells her. 'Word is we have to rally around POTUS to protect him … [There's] big concern that this is the first big issue that could split the base.'
And therein lies the key political risk for Trump, beyond something going badly wrong over Iranian skies. It's been rare that you could slip even a cigarette paper between Trump and his MAGA movement this past 10 years. Could another Middle East bombing campaign be a moment parts of his movement peel away?
It's possible: Die-hard supporters like Laura Loomer are already going around collecting names of the 'shit talking' right-wingers who have turned on Trump over Iran, which doesn't bode well for harmony. And there's no doubt plenty of on-off supporters like Dave Smith (of Joe Rogan fame) are enraged at the prospect of military action. 'He'll lose his coalition on this,' a fuming Smith said this week. It's worth looking at the lengthy explainers offered yesterday by two of Trump's most loyal social media warriors, Vance and Charlie Kirk, to see how the administration is trying to win the MAGA base round. Expect plenty more in the days ahead.
Splits on the right: In the meantime, there's no better illustration of the right's big schism over Iran than the preview clips of anti-war podcaster Tucker Carlson interviewing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) yesterday. The full interview is out later today, but the segments released last night have already gone viral — especially this one of Carlson calling out Cruz for not knowing basic facts about Iran's population. Liberal types are lapping it all up.
FIRE AND ICE
FROM THE WEST SIDE: As tensions escalate on the international stage, the pressures on the streets of Los Angeles have eased sufficiently. Last night, LA Mayor Karen Bass lifted the downtown curfew in place since last week's protests against ICE, the LA Times' Noah Goldberg reports. Bass touted the curfew as a success 'in protecting stores, restaurants, businesses and residential communities,' while vowing that she is 'prepared to reissue a curfew if needed.'
But the troops can stay: 'A federal appeals court appears poised to permit President Donald Trump's deployment of National Guard troops in Los Angeles to continue uninterrupted, despite the protests of California Gov. Gavin Newsom,' POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. A three-judge panel from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals panel features two Trump appointees and Biden appointee; all three 'appeared openly skeptical of California's position that courts can second-guess Trump's determination that immigration protests in Los Angeles had amounted to a potential 'rebellion' against the government.'
TO THE EAST COAST: ICE officers arrested New York City Comptroller (and progressive mayoral candidate) Brad Lander yesterday after he linked arms with a man they were trying to detain at a federal building in Manhattan, per AP's Cedar Attanasio. After roughly four hours in custody, Lander was released, POLITICO's Jeff Coltin and colleagues report, and left the building with Gov. Kathy Hochul, who came to the facility to intervene on his behalf.
Charge it? While Hochul told reporters that it was her understanding that Lander would not face charges, Nicholas Biase, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said that the office was 'continuing to investigate' Lander's actions, and vowing to 'prosecute violations of federal law.'
The arrest threw a proverbial curveball into the city's Democratic mayoral primary, as POLITICO's Emily Ngo and colleagues report, with Lander's arrest upstaging frontrunners Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani in a race that 'has become increasingly fluid in the homestretch' ahead of the June 24 election. Even so, Lander has some catching up to do — a Marist poll released overnight finds Cuomo with a steady but shrinking lead over Mamdani, with Lander in a distant third place.
With friends like these …: POLITICO's Abhinanda Bhattacharyya and Jeff Coltin have a fascinating piece out this morning looking at how many of Cuomo's top endorsements have come from people who publicly condemned him four years ago when he stepped down as New York governor in disgrace.
THE ECONOMY
FED UP: The Federal Reserve makes its latest announcement on interest rates at 2 p.m., with Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to make public remarks at 2:30 p.m. And given nobody expects a cut today, we'll presumably get the first angry Truth Social post from inside the White House shortly after that.
What to watch for: 'Among the biggest things to watch will be whether Federal Open Market Committee members stick with their previous forecast of two rate cuts this year,' CNBC's Jeff Cox previews. The agency has kept rates steady since Trump took office, with the last rate cut in December 2024, but Powell and other officials have signaled that they may make a move once economic concerns around Trump's tariff battle resolve.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — TRADING SPACES: You won't find too many mainstream economists making the case for Trump's tariffs. But Stephen Miran, the head of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, does just that in a newly published interview with POLITICO's Victoria Guida. He says the U.S. has enough leverage to make foreign trading partners eat the cost of tariffs, leading to higher revenue for the U.S. government and supply chains more aligned with America's national interests.
But for that to work, 'foreign firms have to believe that, unless they capitulate, U.S. companies really will relocate their supply chains elsewhere,' Victoria writes. 'The recalibration, in other words, will take some time. And that time could come at a price for the economy, as Trump's shifting tariffs and fluid negotiations leave businesses hesitant to take action.'
BEST OF THE REST
WATCHING BRIEF: It's decision day at the Supreme Court, with the justices due to hand down judgments at 10 a.m. Nobody knows what's coming, but there are still 21 outstanding cases we're expecting rulings on before they head off on their vacations in early July, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein texts Playbook to say. They include Trump's efforts to ban birthright citizenship and restrict the reach of local judges; plus a ruling on Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care for minors. Watch this space.
Speaking of SCOTUS: Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has been paid nearly $3 million in a book advance for her memoir, according to a financial disclosure released yesterday.
RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is hoping to take a first vote on the GOP megabill by next Wednesday or Thursday, setting up a vote on the final package over the following weekend. But he can only afford to lose the support of three Republicans. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has said he's a 'no' at this point. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) have voiced deep concerns about the bill's impact on rural hospitals, POLITICO's Benjamin Guggenheim and Jordain Carney report. And Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has her own concerns on Medicaid. That leaves the package with a narrow path to passage, especially by July 4.
Not too optimistic: 'My guess is it will fail,' predicted Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) when asked about potentially calling votes next week. 'I don't want to see it fail. I want this thing to succeed.'
BIDEN WATCH: The Senate Judiciary Republicans will question former White House press secretary Sean Spicer and other witnesses at a 10:15 a.m. hearing over the alleged 'cover-up' of former President Joe Biden's reported decline while in office.
FOR YOUR RADAR: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was taken to the hospital yesterday for an allergic reaction, CNN first reported. A DHS spokesperson told POLITICO that Noem was transported there 'out of an abundance of caution' and was 'alert and recovering.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
SPOTTED: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the Four Seasons in Georgetown with a to-go order from Bourbon Steak. Kennedy can rest easy knowing that Bourbon Steak cooks their fries in duck fat.
OUT AND ABOUT — The Fiber Broadband Association, the Rural Broadband Association, the Telecommunications Industry Association and the Wireless Infrastructure Association hosted their annual summer happy hour at Santa Rosa Taqueria on Capitol Hill last night. SPOTTED: Marissa Mitrovich, Colin Andrews, Patrick Lozada, Melissa Newman, Mike Saperstein, Stephen Keegan, Makenzie Shellnutt, Mike Romano, Harsha Mudaliar, Tom Hastings, Al David Saab, Johanna Shelton, John Lin, Asad Ramzanali, Tim Donovan, Bill Wilhelm and Crystal Tully.
— SPOTTED last night at Meridian's reception with guest Jacob Helberg at Ned's Club: Belgian Ambassador Frédéric Bernard, Luxembourg Ambassador Nicole Bintner-Bakshian, Dutch Ambassador Birgitta Tazelaar, Latvian Ambassador Elita Kuzma, Greek Ambassador Ekaterini Nassika, Filipino Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez, Liechtenstein Ambassador Georg Sparber, Teresa Carlson, Maryam Mujica, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Joe Bartlett, Michael Kratsios, Yehuda Kaploun, Paolo Zampolli, Ivan Kanapathy, Nick Clemens, Elena Hernandez, Jason Geske, Stewart Barber, Tammy Haddad, Heather Podesta, Anita McBride, Mary Brady, Ashley Callen, Craig Carbone, Jake Denton, Joel Gardner, Karalee Geis, Jimmy Loomis, Parker Magid, James Rockas and Brendan Shields.
— The Walt Disney Company and the Motion Picture Association co-hosted a screening last night of 'Elio' to honor officers and officials at the Defense Department. SPOTTED: John Bentivegna, Paul Norris, Tami Radabaugh, Bill Bailey, Troy Dow, Jessica Moore and Larissa Knapp.
— SPOTTED at KDCR Partners' welcome reception for recently hired principal Lindsay Garcia: Evan Armstrong, Emily Benack, Courtney Titus Brooks, Judy Brown, Nick Pearson, Nicholas Graham, Aparna Paladugu and Barbara Saverino.
TRANSITIONS — Sharmistha Das has rejoined Crowell & Moring as a partner. She most recently was deputy chief of staff and deputy general counsel at DHS. … Samantha Kemp is now director of government affairs at Target. She previously was deputy director of government affairs at Albertsons Companies. … Joshua Kurland is now a partner with Hogan Lovells' international trade and investment practice. He previously was a trial attorney and senior trial counsel at DOJ. …
… Catherine Simonsen, Shaoul Sussman, Nicolas Stebinger and Kate Brubacher have launched Simonsen Sussman, a law firm that aims to fill gaps in antitrust enforcement left by the federal government, Reuters' Mike Scarcella reports. Simonsen, Sussman and Stebinger were previously at the FTC, and Brubacher is a former U.S. attorney for Kansas.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Allison Tinsey, senior counsel for the Senate Homeland Security Border Management, Federal Workforce and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee Dems, and Josh Abbott, senior scientist at Rapafusyn Pharmaceuticals, welcomed Claire Marie on June 11. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) … David Drucker … CNN's DJ Judd … Robert O'Brien … Axios' Nick Johnston … Causeway Strategy Group's John McCarthy … Niall Stanage of The Hill … Jim Stinson … MPA's Rachel Alben … Kate Knudson … Devan Cole … Clare Bresnahan English … Will Kinzel … Bert Gómez … Tom Readmond … former Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) … former Sens. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) and Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) … Narric Rome … Daniel Epstein … POLITICO's Isabel Delgado and Amber Ebersohl … Debbie Shore of Share Our Strength … Hattie Hobart of Nature Is Nonpartisan … Dina Powell McCormick … Mark P. Adams … SKDK's Ajashu Thomas … Fred Barbash … Wyatt Detrick
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