Playbook: Trump's moment of truth
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With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Jack and Dasha discuss war and peace in the Middle East — and the mood inside the White House as Trump departs the G7.
Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard.
In today's Playbook …
— Trump swaps the G7 for the Situation Room, with the Middle East on fire.
— World holds its breath as Trump weighs missiles vs. diplomacy in Iran.
— MAGA world in meltdown over prospect of another foreign war.
DRIVING THE DAY
THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS: President Donald Trump will gather his closest military advisers in the Situation Room this morning as he weighs perhaps the most consequential decision of his presidency: whether to join Israel's bombardment of Iran. Trump's sudden dash back to D.C. last night, mid-way through the G7 leaders' summit in Canada — and shortly after urging all 10 million residents of Tehran to evacuate the city — gave the unshakable impression that an American attack is now imminent. But we've seen no U.S. military activity as yet, and there's some counter-evidence this morning that the president still hopes to cut a deal. Nobody knows for sure how this plays out.
But it's hard to overstate the significance of this moment. American involvement in this war could end Iran's nuclear ambitions, and even topple its autocratic government — reshaping the Middle East for decades to come. But it would be fraught with political risk. The history books are littered with leaders whose reputations never recovered from overseas folly. You hardly need reminding about JFK and the Bay of Pigs; LBJ and Vietnam; George W. Bush and Iraq. Joe Biden's ham-fisted withdrawal from Afghanistan can probably be added to the list. These things can go horribly wrong and are never forgotten.
To govern is to choose: The NYT laid out Trump's options last night via a must-read analysis by David Sanger and Jonathan Swan. In essence, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu wants U.S. military assistance to take out one of the central pillars of Iran's nuclear enrichment program — the famous Fordo facility, buried deep in a mountain 100 miles south of Tehran. Received wisdom has it that only USAF 'bunker-busters' — massive bombs weighing the equivalent of several large elephants, purpose-built to tear through mountainsides — could do the job. And that means American pilots flying B-2 stealth bomber raids across Iran.
Chance of a lifetime: The U.S. — and Israel — have had Fordo in their sights for the past 15 years, and Iran hawks are urging Trump to grasp a generational opportunity to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities, and perhaps the regime itself. Iran's air defenses look shattered by the sophisticated Israeli attacks of the past few days, and those in favor of U.S. action are telling Trump this is a one-off chance.
On the other hand: This is a president who campaigned for years on ending American involvement in overseas wars; a man who, in 2011 and 2012, mockingly claimed then-President Barack Obama was about to start a war with Iran just to distract from his own failings. Only a couple of months ago, his own director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said Iran is 'not building a nuclear weapon.' And this is the self-styled 'dealmaker-in-chief.' Is he really going to flip it all around with a Middle East bombing campaign?
Maybe not: Speaking earlier yesterday, Trump had sounded optimistic about cutting a deal. 'I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table where they want to make a deal, and as soon as I leave here, we're going to be doing something,' Trump said at the G7. Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo reported last night the White House was discussing the possibility of a meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Bon chance: Trump's fellow G7 leaders, too, had sounded confident Trump was headed off to engage in diplomacy. French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters: 'There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange. An offer was made especially to get a ceasefire and to then kickstart broader discussions. We have to see now whether the sides will follow.'
But but but: Trump's Truth Social feed in the early hours of this morning told a very different picture. 'Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran. Wrong!' Trump wrote at 1:15 a.m. ET, while flying home on Air Force One. 'He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!'
Direct from the source: 'I have not reached out to Iran for 'Peace Talks' in any way, shape, or form,' Trump said in a 5:20 a.m. post on Truth Social. 'If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!!'
Inside the White House this morning, aides say Trump is taking advice from a range of sources — military, intelligence and civilian — as he weighs his options, my Playbook colleague Dasha Burns texts in to say. They stress Trump has long been consistent in his messaging on Iran — that it can never acquire nuclear weapons, no matter what. And if you think that sounds like a surreptitious threat, you'd be right.
An array of trusted voices in the Situation Room will offer Trump their views. They include Marco Rubio, his once-hawkish secretary of State and national security adviser, who flew back with Trump from Calgary last night; VP JD Vance, an avowed isolationist who has long preached caution in the Middle East; and Dan Caine, Trump's new — and highly inexperienced — chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
More from Dasha: 'The White House is engaged in a process of deterrence,' a person close to the White House texts Dasha to say. 'It only works if he's willing to go through with the threat. And he almost certainly is.' This person added: 'Trump has been consistent that Iran can't have a nuclear bomb. Given the state of Iran's air defenses there are a lot of options … ' Again, it sounds like a drumbeat toward war.
While we're talking about war … This seems like an opportune moment to remind ourselves (and the White House) that it's Congress that actually holds the power to declare war. Last night, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) put forward a bipartisan effort to force Trump to seek congressional approval before attacking Iran. Their War Powers Resolution will be introduced today and has already drawn support from a handful of independently minded representatives from both sides of the House. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) put forward a similar measure in the Senate yesterday. You can expect plenty of colorful debate over the days ahead.
But the real battle for control is happening inside the MAGA movement, where the prospect of Trump attacking Iran is causing deep divisions. Trump's repeated attacks on the MAGA-friendly broadcaster Tucker Carlson — he was at it again last night on Truth Social — have upset staunch allies like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who was out defending Carlson on X.
It's worth listening too to Steve Bannon — who had Carlson as his guest on the 'War Room' podcast yesterday — and just how unsettled he sounds about where Trump is at. Bannon fears Trump and his allies are being overwhelmed by warmongering Deep State forces and that the Trump 2.0 project is now at a critical juncture. Die-hard supporters, like Laura Loomer, are in turn attacking Carlson, Bannon and co. The whole thing is a mess.
Back at the G7 … The remaining six leaders will be feeling a little more relaxed — if a lot more irrelevant — in Trump's absence. Canadian PM Mark Carney can boast he at least got an agreement to aim for a U.S.-Canada trade deal within 30 days, though British PM Keir Starmer went one better (again) and bagged an extension to his existing trade agreement. Starmer did, however, have to ferret around on the floor to scoop up the paperwork — you will struggle to find a more telling image of the modern-day 'special relationship.'
But the biggest loser from it all … is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had been due to bag some precious face-time with Trump today. The U.S. president's noises-off at the summit — rejecting fresh sanctions on Russia and bemoaning the decision to throw Russian President Vladimir Putin out of the then-G8 in 2014 — were not the interventions of a man preparing to get tough on Russia. And by canceling his appointment with Zelenskyy, Trump makes his priorities crystal clear.
Meanwhile in Kyiv: Putin continues to kill innocent civilians as they sleep in their beds, night after night. Here's a video of a Russian drone striking a residential apartment block in the early hours of this morning. At least 15 people were killed across the city last night, per Zelenskyy.
MINNESOTA FALLOUT
SECURITY CONCERNS: Senators will receive a classified security briefing today via Capitol Police and the Senate sergeant at arms, days after the brutal shootings of two state lawmakers and their partners in Minnesota. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is also set to hold a virtual briefing. The sessions come as congressional Democrats continue to sound the alarm on the need to heighten security for members.
Hit list: New details from authorities revealed that a number of lawmakers appeared on suspect Vance Boelter's alleged hit list, per Axios' Andrew Solender. Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Kelly Morrison (D-Minn.) and Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) were potential targets, but so were other members of Congress ranging from Ohio to Wisconsin to Texas. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) canceled her town hall in Michigan yesterday 'out of an abundance of caution,' Solender reports. The list was all Democrats — in what acting U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson called 'the stuff of nightmares,' NPR's Meg Anderson and colleagues report.
The fallout: The killings of state House Democratic leader Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark Hortman sparked outrage on the Hill and fears about a growing trend of political violence, NOTUS' Riley Rogerson and colleagues report. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asked Capitol Police to ramp up security for Smith and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Roll Call's Justin Papp reports. House Dems are also calling on Speaker Mike Johnson to increase funding for members' security, per POLITICO's Nick Wu and Katherine Tully-McManus.
Face to face: Smith confronted Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) in a hallway off the Senate floor yesterday, blasting him for blaming the assassination on 'Marxists' on his social media, POLITICO's Jordain Carney and Calen Razor report. 'I needed him to hear from me directly what impact I think his cruel statement had on me, his colleague,' Smith told reporters after the confrontation. Lee refused to comment on his posts or the conversation, as captured in a video by NBC's Brennan Leach.
And there's more: One of Smith's top aides penned a scathing email to Lee's staff saying the senator 'exploited the murder of a lifetime public servant and her husband to post some sick burns about Democrats.' Read the email
ON THE HILL
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The White House is ramping up messaging on the reconciliation bill today by sending all Senate and House Republicans a one-pager. The document cites a Council of Economic Advisers analysis that shows how much average households in each state would see their wages and take-home pay increase in the long term. Read it here
Reconcilable differences: Senate Republicans will meet at 12:30 p.m. for their weekly lunch at a pivotal moment for the party's megabill. After the Senate Finance Committee released its all-important bill text yesterday, Republicans in both chambers are still digesting some surprising changes — but Senate GOP leaders nonetheless hope to pass this reconciliation behemoth next weekend.
Inside the bill: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo's (R-Idaho) legislation makes a number of alterations to the House bill, with both moderates and hardliners finding items to celebrate and rue, POLITICO's Brian Faler reports. Without a dollar amount for the cost yet, it's not clear whether this comes in under the House's $4 trillion budget. Here's a rapid-fire rundown of what you need to know:
The big questions outstanding: Can it get through the Senate? Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he still opposes the bill, while one senator warned that 'we're further away than we were before,' per Axios' Hans Nichols and colleagues. And 'immediate reaction from lawmakers across the ideological spectrum … indicated leadership has a ways to go,' POLITICO's Jordain Carney and colleagues report. Our Inside Congress colleagues have more on the conflicts facing Senate Majority Leader John Thune. And what about the House? Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) was among those suggesting he wouldn't accept the new Medicaid cuts.
ELSEWHERE IN CONGRESS: At 10:30 a.m., DNI Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe will testify before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee. And the Senate will vote in the late afternoon on the GENIUS Act, the landmark cryptocurrency bill that would create the first-ever (and industry-friendly) regulatory structure for digital assets known as stablecoins.
BEST OF THE REST
DEPORTATION U-TURN: Immigration raids will now once again target farms, hotels and restaurants — after DHS yesterday reversed the updated guidance the Trump administration shared with immigration officers just last week, WaPo's Carol Leonnig and colleagues scooped. The move undoes the pullback of enforcement in agricultural sectors that rely on migrant workers, which was reportedly pushed by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller had privately opposed the exceptions.
Chilling effect: The 'reversal of the reversal,' as The Bulwark's Sam Stein put it, will no doubt ripple across agricultural and hospitality industries. Divisions over migrant laborers run deep — both support from the agriculture industry and from voters in favor of mass deportations helped launch Trump to his second term, POLITICO's Samuel Benson and colleagues report. The tensions came to a head as top industries lobbied for a change: 'Farm and meatpacking representatives argued that labor shortfalls loomed if current policy continued, and that the result could be higher food prices,' WSJ's Arian Campo-Flores and colleagues report.
By the numbers: Less than 10 percent of immigrants arrested by ICE this fiscal year have serious criminal convictions like rape or murder, per CNN's Casey Tolan and colleagues. Three-quarters had no criminal convictions beyond immigration or traffic offenses.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — O, Canada: POLITICO's Jonathan Martin is up with a new piece from Boston this morning detailing a confab that brought a group of American governors and Canadian premiers together for a private and then public conversation (and at times commiseration) about Trump's tariffs. 'It was a largely amiable, at times awkward and bizarre-if-fitting culmination of the Trump Decade: Who else could hurl America into a fight with our friendly neighbor to the north, eh? Nobody was amused under the golden dome on Beacon Hill, though.'
JUDICIARY SQUARE: There was a flurry of activity in America's legal system yesterday, but none more dramatic than in Reagan-appointed federal judge William Young's courtroom. He barred NIH cuts to research related to racial minorities and LGBTQ+ people, and blasted the Trump administration's orders as amounting to open discrimination against those groups. 'I would be blind not to call it out,' Young said. 'Have we fallen so low? Have we no shame?' POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Danny Nguyen write that it 'was an extraordinary departure for a federal judge of any era.'
AS HURRICANE SEASON ARRIVES: 'Cuts to FEMA's storm prep program hammer communities that voted for Trump,' by CBS' Michael Kaplan and colleagues: 'A CBS News investigation found two-thirds of counties that have lost funding from this FEMA program supported President Trump in the 2024 election.'
VACCINE SIREN: Senior CDC scientist Fiona Havers resigned, saying that she no longer trusted the Trump administration to use the Covid or RSV hospitalization data she oversaw 'objectively' or assess it 'with appropriate scientific rigor,' Reuters' Julie Steenhuysen scooped. Meanwhile, all 17 members of the immunization advisory committee fired by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke out in a Journal of the American Medical Association editorial. They warned that the dismissals and other changes 'may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people's access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses.'
KFILE STRIKES AGAIN: 'Pirro endorsed threat to criminally investigate January 6 prosecutors in office she now runs,' by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck
TALK OF THE TOWN
A federal jury found that Mike Lindell defamed a former security director at Dominion Voting Systems, and ordered him to pay $2.3 million.
Cristiano Ronaldo signed a jersey with a personal message for Donald Trump ('Playing for Peace'), presented to the president by António Costa.
The NAACP is excluding Trump from its national convention in North Carolina next month — the first time in the organization's 116-year history that a sitting president has not been invited, per AP.
IN MEMORIAM — 'William Langewiesche, the 'Steve McQueen of Journalism,' Dies at 70,' by NYT's Trip Gabriel: He 'was one of the most prominent long-form nonfiction writers of recent decades. He was an international correspondent for Vanity Fair, a writer-at-large for The New York Times Magazine and a national correspondent for The Atlantic. For 10 years running, from 1999 to 2008, his pieces were finalists for the National Magazine Award, and he won it twice.'
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Print WaPo subscribers will no longer get a standalone Metro section: Matt Murray announced a reshuffle of the paper's sections, combining Metro with Sports and Style some days, though he said the number of stories published will be the same. The changes take effect next week.
OUT AND ABOUT — Great Opportunity Policy, a group closely tied to Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), held its annual policy summit at the Mayflower Hotel yesterday. SPOTTED: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, FBI Director Kash Patel, Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Paul Singer, Daniel Loeb, Eva Moskowitz, Marc Andreessen, Bill Ackman, Mike Gallagher, Emilie Choi, Arjun Sethi, Heath Tarbert, Ja'Ron Smith, Cory Gardner, Jennifer DeCasper and Jessica Anderson.
TRANSITIONS — Mackenzie Martinez is now public affairs adviser at the Commerce Department's International Trade Administration. She previously was comms director for Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.). … The America First Policy Institute is adding Julie Kirchner, Tony Pham and Emilio González to build out its stable of immigration policy experts. … Chad Banghart is now president of the New Tolerance Campaign. He is an RNC and U.S. Chamber of Commerce alum. …
… Eric Feder is now local legal initiative director at the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press. He previously was a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine. … Ben Melano is now director of government affairs at the American Podiatric Medical Association. He previously was deputy director of federal affairs at the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. … Vik Ath will be managing director at Climate Solutions Fund. He previously was director of donor comms at Stand Together and is a Steve Daines alum.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Scott Peters (D-Calif.) … Newt Gingrich … Matt Canter of Global Strategy Group … Matt Miller … Diane Blagman of Greenberg Traurig … Maxwell Nunes … CNBC's Christina Wilkie … Allie Malloy … Maxine Joselow … Will Sommer … Kent Lassman … Paul Steinhauser … Nisha Ramachandran … Conservation International's Miro Korenha … Scott Thuman … Gabe Horwitz … former Reps. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) and Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) … Chris Bedford … POLITICO's Elizabeth Kisiday, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Christina Lei and Samuel Ogozalek … Jessica Boulanger … Boris Abreu ... Katie Grant Drew … CBS' Nicole Domenica Sganga ... PBS NewsHour's Jaywon Choe ... Linda Chavez … Chris Jennings … Precision's Noah Cavicchi … Melissa Sabatine ... former HHS Secretary Alex Azar … Janice Lachance … former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett … Kerri Chyka … Jacob McIntosh of TriNet … Nora Taktajian of Rep. Doris Matsui's (D-Calif.) office (3-0) … Jordan Wells … Dan Hanlon … Lauren Kennedy of Sen. Thom Tillis' (R-N.C.) office … David D'Antonio … Zainab Chaudary of New Heights Communications … former Education Secretary Rod Paige (92) … NewsNation's Blake Burman … Connor Joseph … Ryan Serote of Meguire Whitney … Katie Wright of the Herald Group
Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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How Senate Republicans want to change the tax breaks in Trump's big bill
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Here's a look at some of the key differences between the two bills: The child tax credit currently stands at $2,000 per child. The House bill temporarily boosts the child tax credit to $2,500 for the 2025 through 2028 tax years, roughly the length of President Donald Trump's second term. It also indexes the credit amount for inflation beginning in 2027. The Senate bill provides a smaller, initial bump-up to $2,200, but the bump is permanent, with the credit amount indexed for inflation beginning next year. Trump promised on the campaign trail that he would seek to end income taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits. Also, he would give car buyers a new tax break by allowing them to deduct the interest paid on auto loans. The House and Senate bills incorporate those promises with temporary deductions lasting from the 2025 through 2028 tax years, but with some differences. The House bill creates a deduction on tips for those working in jobs that have customarily received tips. The House also provides for a deduction for overtime that's equal to the amount of OT a worker has earned. The Senate bill comes with more restrictions. The deduction for tips is limited to $25,000 per taxpayer and the deduction for overtime is limited to $12,500 per taxpayer. The House and Senate bills both provide a deduction of up to $10,000 for interest paid on loans for vehicles made in the United States. And on Social Security, the bills don't directly touch the program. Instead, they grant a larger tax deduction for Americans age 65 and older. The House sets the deduction at $4,000. The Senate sets it at $6,000. Both chambers include income limits over which the new deductions begin to phase out. The caps on state and local tax deductions, known in Washington as the SALT cap, now stand at $10,000. The House bill, in a bid to win over Republicans from New York, California and New Jersey, lifts the cap to $40,000 per household with incomes of less than $500,000. The credit phases down for households earning more than $500,000. The Senate bill keeps the cap at $10,000. That's a non-starter in the House, but Republicans in the two chambers will look to negotiate a final number over the coming weeks that both sides can accept. The House bill prohibits states from establishing new provider taxes or increasing existing taxes. These are taxes that Medicaid providers, such as hospitals, pay to help states finance their share of Medicaid costs. In turn, the taxes allow states to receive increased federal matching funds while generally holding providers harmless through higher reimbursements that offset the taxes paid. Such taxes now are effectively capped at 6%. The Senate looks to gradually lower that threshold for states that have expanded their Medicaid populations under the Affordable Care Act, or 'Obamacare,' until it reaches 3.5% in 2031, with exceptions for nursing homes and intermediate care facilities. Industry groups have warned that limiting the ability of states to tax providers may lead to some states making significant cuts to their Medicaid programs as they make up for the lost revenue in other ways. The Medicaid provision could be a flashpoint in the coming House and Senate negotiations. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., was highly critical of the proposed Senate changes. 'This needs a lot of work. It's really concerning and I'm really surprised by it,' he said. 'Rural hospitals are going to be in bad shape.' The House bill would allow companies for five years to fully deduct equipment purchases and domestic research and development expenses. The Senate bill includes no sunset, making the tax breaks permanent, which was a key priority of powerful trade groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Republicans in both chambers are looking to scale back the clean energy tax credits enacted through then-President Joe Biden's climate law. It aimed to boost the nation's transition away from planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions toward renewable energy such as wind and solar power. Under the Senate bill, the tax credits for clean energy and home energy efficiency would still be phased out, but less quickly than under the House bill. Still, advocacy groups fear that the final measure will threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive up household energy costs. The House bill would allow millions of Americans to use their health savings accounts to pay for gym memberships, with a cap of $500 for single taxpayers and $1,000 for joint filers. The Senate bill doesn't include such a provision. The House reinstates a charitable deduction for non-itemizers of $150 per taxpayer. The Senate bill increases that deduction for donations to $1,000 per taxpayer. Republicans in the House bill included a new annual fee of $250 for EV owners and $100 for hybrid owners that would be collected by state motor vehicle departments. The Senate bill excludes the proposed fees.
