Latest news with #Botes
IOL News
09-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Rand strengthens below R17,70 amid budget optimism and a softer dollar
Having opened at R17.77 on Monday morning, it continued to trade around that level for the bulk of the day and was at R17.73 as of around 2.30pm. It was last at these levels around mid-December last year. Image: GCIS / File The rand is testing levels below R17.70 to the dollar on a range of factors that include persistent greenback weakness, renewed local confidence following the passage of the third iteration of the National Budget, as well as hints that the inflation target may be dropped to 3% instead of the current 3% to 6% range. Having opened at R17.77 on Monday morning, it continued to trade around that level for the bulk of the day and was at R17.73 as of around 2.30pm. It was last at these levels around mid-December last year. Bianca Botes, director of Citadel Global, explained that the weakening of the dollar has been the biggest short-term driver for the rand. 'When the dollar weakens, often due to softer US economic data or expectations of US interest rate cuts, the rand tends to strengthen,' she said. So far this year, the rand is 5.7% stronger against the dollar, leading the emerging market currency charge, said Botes. The dollar index is softer by 6.6% over the past six months, indicating the broad-based weakness of the currency, she added. Yet, Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, stated that the local currency was not gaining ground against the euro and pound. 'US dollar weakness has been driven by the volatility in US tariffs and uncertainty for the US economy and so global growth, as the US has hiked tariffs steeply then paused, or rolled them back, then re-embarked on tariff increases again in April,' she said. Nolan Wapenaar, co-chief investment officer at Anchor Capital, said that, 'perhaps most tellingly,' the weaker greenback, further de-escalation of the tariffs given recent trade talks as well as less political risk will help the local currency. Botes also noted that, as a commodity linked currency, the rand is sensitive to global product prices. 'The prolonged and drastic gold rally, coupled with a weak oil price, assisted the terms of trade and underscored the rand's strength,' she said. Johann Els, Old Mutual's chief economist, said that the rand is benefiting from the recent soothing of global trade tensions, the passing of the National Budget, easing of concerns that the DA won't walk away from the Government of National Unity as well as higher prices of those commodities that South Africa exports when compared with relatively low price of the country's main import of oil. Wapenaar explained that the rand has also strengthened because a 'sensible budget was passed, and tariffs have been paused and softened'. The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB's) cautious approach to interest rates, cutting rates less aggressively than expected, has helped support the rand by maintaining a favourable interest rate differential with the US, said Botes. 'Anticipated US rate cuts later in 2025 could further benefit the rand if local rates remain steady,' she added. 'We also note that the discussion of a 3% inflation target in South Africa is rand positive and should this progress, we will likely see further strength in the rand,' said Wapenaar. On announcing the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee to, as expected, drop the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on May 21, SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago said that dropping the inflation target to 3% would result in South Africa being a low-inflation, low-interest rate country, which would bring with it economic growth. 'The renewed focus on a lower inflation target is also helping as this will not only reduce pressure on the rand, but also lead to lower interest rates over time,' said Els, adding that this would be beneficial for the economy, while also aiding in fixing government finances. 'I see further strength in the rand over the next few weeks and months, moving closer to R17, and potentially into the R16-handle territory on a short-term basis,' Els said. Bishop noted that the US dollar is expected to see further weakness this year, which would add to the rand's strength against the greenback, and the moderate nature of consumer price inflation, with another fuel price cut due this month. 'The rand's strength against the US dollar this year has contributed significantly towards lower inflation in South Africa,' she said. IOL
The Citizen
06-06-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
Weekly economic wrap: the bleak picture of SA's GDP
Even the Reserve Bank governor, Lesetja Kganyago, echoed the bleak picture, calling the GDP data 'not a pretty picture'. It was a busy week on the economic front with a few announcements, with almost all of them pointing out that the GDP data for the first quarter that showed the economy grew by only 0.1% is indeed correct. Tracey-Lee Solomon, economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) says most of the data releases painted a bleak picture of South Africa's economy. 'Not only was the gross domestic product (GDP) growth dismal, but growth for 2024 was also revised lower to just 0.5%.' Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, says the rand strengthened to R17.86/$ before giving back some of its gains. 'The positive move for the rand is largely thanks to a softer dollar and positive news on the national budget.' Busisiwe Nkonki and Isaac Matshego, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, point out that the rand touched R17.75/$ on Thursday after US private jobs data pointed to a sharp fall in jobs growth in May, with the reading suggesting that US nonfarm payrolls figures could miss market forecasts. The rand traded at R17.77/$ on Friday afternoon. ALSO READ: This is where we would be if SA sustained an economic growth rate of 4.5% Gold starts to shine again, oil price increases OPEC+ and its allies agreed on Saturday to increase oil supply by 411 000 barrels per day in July, matching the additions for May and June, in line with expectations. However, Solomon points out, late-week reports stirred fears that the group might opt for a larger hike. 'This downside surprise, coupled with geopolitical developments, including bombings in Russia and Iran's reaction to a report highlighting its growing stockpile of enriched uranium, shifted market focus to reduced oil supply compared to what was expected at the end of last week. As a result, oil prices increased by nearly 2% over the week.' Botes says the increase in the oil price is partly due to higher demand expected during the summer, as well as concerns that trouble in certain parts of the world could disrupt oil supplies. 'Wildfires in Canada also temporarily reduced the country's oil output by about 7%, although the situation has improved as rain helped control the fires. However, the momentum for higher prices slowed after Saudi Arabia pushed for OPEC+ to boost oil production by over 400,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September, aiming to meet summer demand.' Gold also increased by 1.6% as rising geopolitical and trade tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven asset. Botes says gold prices climbed to around $3,360 per ounce this week, mainly due to recent US economic data, which has been weak, causing investors to seek safer assets in which to invest their money. 'Expectations that the US Fed may not increase interest rates further also made gold more attractive. Gold is on track for a weekly gain of about 2%.' ALSO READ: No fireworks expected, but GDP figures are disappointing — economists South Africa's bleak GDP According to Statistics SA, real GDP expanded by just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This follows downwardly revised growth of 0.4% (previously 0.6%) in the fourth quarter of 2024, which meant that the economy expanded by just 0.5% (from 0.6%) in 2024, down from 0.8% in 2023. Nkonki and Matshego say the meagre 0.1% growth in GDP was slightly better than their and the market's forecasts of no growth. 'Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the economy grew by 0.5%, slower than in the fourth quarter. 'Despite the lower base and patchy picture of the first quarter, we still expect the economy to gain some upward traction in the quarters ahead. The boost will continue coming from consumer demand, which should accelerate as inflation remains subdued, and interest rates decline further, bolstering real incomes and lowering borrowing costs. 'The upside will be capped by slower government spending due to fiscal constraints and sluggish fixed investment, as well as a weaker net trade position caused by fading global growth, subdued commodity prices and persistent policy uncertainties. We expect GDP to grow by 1% in 2025, only moderately better than 0.5% in 2024.' Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, Thanda Sithole, and Koketso Mano, economists at FNB, say that while household consumption expenditure growth was maintained, the demand side of the economy reflected ongoing declines in government consumption, exports, and total fixed investment. 'The benefits of the economic reforms implemented so far are taking longer to materialise, as evidenced by the continued weakness in fixed investment. Nonetheless, we still expect growth to increase towards 2.0% by 2027, supported by ongoing structural reforms and cyclical tailwinds, including easing inflation and interest rate cuts, which should bolster household consumption. 'Overall, our near-term forecasts balance weak investment trends with a gradual recovery in consumer spending. However, risks remain tilted to the downside, particularly for fixed investment, given the still-fluid macroeconomic and policy environment. ALSO READ: Warning from industry that Steel Master Plan has stalled Business confidence decreases for first time in more than a year The results of the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index decreased by five points to 40 in the second quarter of 2025 as the recovery that started in the second quarter of 2024 stalled. Matikinca-Ngwenya, Mkhwanazi, Sithole and Mano say, considering the prevailing weakness in private sector investment and subdued business confidence, they revised their 2025 growth forecast down to 1.0%, from 1.3% previously. 'Businesses were aware that a proposed VAT hike was scrapped, although many responded before the release of Budget 3.0. Political uncertainty surrounding the GNU also influenced sentiment, though concerns about its stability eased somewhat during May.' Nkosiphindile Shange, economist at the BER, says this implies that only four out of ten business respondents in the most cyclically sensitive sectors of the economy were satisfied with prevailing business conditions. 'Only wholesale traders saw an increase in confidence, with declines across all other business segments. However, despite the declines, the confidence of retailers and new vehicle dealers remained above the long-term averages.' ALSO READ: Business confidence tanks in second quarter due to pessimism about trading conditions Absa PMI down for the seventh consecutive month The Absa PMI decreased to 43.1 points in May from 44.7 points in April, remaining in contractionary territory for a seventh consecutive month. There were some improvements in business activity and new sales orders, but the supplier deliveries index pushed the headline PMI lower. The S&P Global South Africa PMI was more positive and rose to 50.8 points in May from 50 points in April as output and new orders rose for a second consecutive month. Shange says this is the first time the PMI has been in growth territory since November 2024. Matikinca-Ngwenya, Mkhwanazi, Sithole and Mano say, fortunately, the index for expected business conditions in the near term increased by 13.9 points to 62.5, highlighting a lift in sentiment as external tariffs have been reduced, and local policy uncertainty has abated. ALSO READ: Manufacturing PMI falls to lowest level since April 2020 — bad news for GDP New vehicle sales 22% higher than a year ago According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa, new vehicle sales in May 2025 came in at 45 308 units, an increase of 22% compared to a year ago after sales grew by 11.9% in April. Out of the total reported industry sales of 45 308 vehicles, 88.4% represented dealer sales, while 6.8% represented sales to the vehicle rental industry, industry corporate fleets (3%) and government sales (1.8%). Exports, on the other hand, performed poorly and fell by 14.6% compared to a year ago. Nkonki and Matshego note that exports fell to 30 112 units as a major original equipment manufacturer (OEM) halted production for upgrades. ALSO READ: New vehicle sales extended winning streak for a fifth time in May Current account deficit still narrowing The latest data from the Sarb showed that South Africa's account deficit narrowed to R35.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, from a revised R39.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. The current account deficit as a ratio of GDP remained at 0.5%, while the trade surplus fell slightly to R221.2 billion from R226.4 billion in the fourth quarter as the value of imports (3.6%) increased more rapidly than exports (2.9%). Nkonki and Matshego say the drop in the nominal figure reflects an improvement in the non-trade deficit (consisting of the services' primary and secondary income accounts), which narrowed due to lower dividend and interest payments. 'Due to subdued trade performance, the current account balance will likely deteriorate this year. Imports are anticipated to outpace exports, driven by a more favourable domestic environment. Subdued inflation, higher real incomes and a relatively resilient rand will continue to bolster import demand. 'Exports face notable downside pressures due to a weaker, uncertain and generally volatile global economy. Export demand will ease on slow growth in key trade economies and softer commodity prices.'
IOL News
02-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
DIRCO defends policy change that will enable Musk's Starlink to operate in SA as 'in the national interest
Elon Musk. Bringing billionaire Elon Musk's controversial satellite internet system, Starlink, into South Africa's airspace is in the country's national interest because it will help meet its developmental goals Image: AFP Bringing billionaire Elon Musk's controversial satellite internet system, Starlink, into South Africa's airspace is in the country's national interest because it will help meet its developmental goals, said Deputy Minister of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, Alvin Botes. During a conference on illicit financial flows, mobilising domestic resources, and financing for development, hosted at SGN Grant Thornton's offices at the end of last week, Botes said that any trade agreement would be subordinate to the Constitution and must facilitate development. Botes also hinted at government's policy towards trade agreements with the United States following President Cyril Ramaphosa's meeting with Trump on May 21. He said that the county's policies are 'not subordinate to trade incentives'. The Deputy Minister added: 'We can only speak about what our constitutional imperatives are.' He explained that it was important that public debates were held as government effects changes in law when public opinion focuses on certain issues. However, Botes also said that the United States is South Africa's second largest trade partner as a country following China. 'It would be reckless to say we don't need the US,' he noted, speaking specifically about automotive exports. During Ramaphosa's meeting with Trump, which was televised, the United States President seemingly blindsided Ramaphosa by screening videos in which then EFF leader Julius Malema chanted 'kill the boer, kill the farmer'. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading Trump has been targeting South Africa for what he sees as genocide, while Musk has publicly stated that the country has 'racist ownership laws,' which may deter him from investing here, including through Starlink. Recent proposed changes by Minister of Communications and Digital Technologies, Solly Malatsi, that will amend current laws governing the telecoms space has caused controversy and have been viewed as paving the way for Musk, who was previously close with US President Donald Trump, to operate his satellites in South Africa. Speaking to IOL on the sidelines of the SNG conference, Botes said trade agreements must be reconcilable with nation building. When specifically asked about Starlink, the Deputy Minister said government sought to get the best outcome for South Africans still suffering the consequences of the Apartheid era. Malatsi has proposed that the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) to reconsider its regulations on ownership of licences. This would include making use of alternatives to requiring companies to be 30% owned by historically disadvantaged individuals before that entity can be awarded spectrum. Botes pointed out that not all South Africans have access to the internet and Starlink will bridge these gaps in rural areas. A release from Statistics South Africa last week showed that the percentage of households who had access to the Internet through any other means increased from 28.0% in 2010 to 82.1% by 2024. Malatsi was 'invited' by the Portfolio Committee on Communications and Digital Technologies to explain these directives, which would essentially allow international companies to implement skills development, enterprise development, socio-economic investment, and Equity Equivalent Investment Programmes instead of ownership. The Committee said that these directives 'appear to be in contravention of the Electronic Communications Act and in favour of low earth orbit satellite provider SpaceX, which will be providing broadband services'. Space X operates Starlink.
IOL News
02-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Crooks steal almost R100bn from SA's economy each year
Illicit financial flows are costing South Africa a staggering $3.5 billion annually, nearly 5% of its tax revenue. Image: RonAI / IOL Illicit Financial Flows (IFF) – theft – is robbing South Africa of a massive $3.5 billion every year. That amount translates to almost 5% of the tax revenue that the South African Revenue Service brings in each year, or R92.5bn, according to Deputy Minister of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, Alvin Botes. 'In 2022 we received roughly $1.1bn (R19.7bn) in official development assistance, but we lose an estimated $3.5bn (R62.7bn) to $5 billion (R89.6bn) each year to tax abuse, trade mis-invoicing, illegal capital transfers and profit-shifting,' said Botes, who was speaking at a conference on illicit financial flows, mobilising domestic resources, and financing for development, hosted at SGN Grant Thornton's offices at the end of last week. Botes added that 'these losses erode tax bases, shrink fiscal space, weaken institutions and make true sovereignty impossible'. This, he said, means 'children left out of classrooms, hospitals short on medicine, dreams deferred.' Victor Sekese, SNG Grant Thornton CEO, said that progress is increasingly threatened through IFF, which 'denies our people access to public goods like healthcare, education, infrastructure, and opportunity.' Quantifying the effect of IFF on socioeconomic development initiatives to improve the lives of all, Botes stated that UN Trade and Development statistics indicate that countries with high illicit flows spend a quarter less on healthcare and more than 50% less on education than their peers. On a continental level, Sekese said that Africa is estimated to lose over $80 billion annually to these IFF outflows. 'Imagine what we could do with that – build public infrastructure, schools, hospitals and industries,' he said. Sekese added that it was important not to just have talk shops but to agree on ways to share data, harmonise laws, and hold those who make it possible for IFF to take place accountable. 'Most importantly, to ensure that our recommendations not only inform but shape the final policy proposals presented at the G20 later this year'. South Africa will host the G20 Johannesburg Summit, the twentieth meeting of the Group of Twenty, on 22 and 23 November. The meeting is set to include heads of state and government, with US President Donald Trump having said the US will attend. Botes noted that 'the complexity of these crimes also demands deeper inter-agency cooperation, rapid information-sharing and, ultimately, an international legal instrument robust enough to match transnational crime. We therefore call for a United Nations Tax Convention capable of halting Africa's wealth leak and choking multinational tax abuse.' Let us plug the leaks, mobilise the means and finance the future humanity deserves,' said Botes. IOL Business
IOL News
02-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
SA wants bold financial reforms to end Africa's debt crisis ahead of UN financing conference
Deputy Minister of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, Alvin Botes, said that debt must be sustainable and international development finance needs to be reimagined so that 'no school, clinic or innovator's dream is sacrificed on the altar of debt or indifference'. Image: Katlholo Maifadi / DIRCO News South Africa is calling for the upcoming 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) to be a catalyst for change in how international development finance is structured so that no African nation suffers crippling aid debt. Deputy Minister of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, Alvin Botes, said that debt must be sustainable and international development finance needs to be reimagined so that 'no school, clinic or innovator's dream is sacrificed on the altar of debt or indifference'. FfD4, to be held in Seville, Spain between June 30 and July 3, 'must close the financial divide, attack inequality at its root and operationalise the Pact for the Future and the Global Digital Compact,' said Botes. FfD4, to be held under the auspices of the United Nations, seeks to address the urgent need to fully implement Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and support reform of the international financial architecture. Speaking at an event on illicit financial flows, mobilising domestic resources, and financing for development, hosted at SGN Grant Thornton's offices towards the end of last week, Botes also said that the global financing landscape is in disrepair. 'The G20 Common Framework has stalled, multilateral development banks deliver net negative flows, and unsustainable debt crowds out SDG spending,' the Deputy Minister said. South Africa, currently Presiding over the G20 until it hands the baton to the United States at the end of November, is ready to champion developing nations when it comes to their economic plight and unsustainable debt, said Botes. He noted that 43 of the world's 47 emerging nations are in Africa. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ 'The age of incrementalism has ended; the era of decisive, equitable and bold action begins now. South Africa is ready to lead, to support and to walk alongside every partner committed to justice, equity and shared progress,' Botes said. South Africa aims to use its Presidency to have the G20's Common Framework overhauled some five years after its creation during the COVID-19 pandemic as a mechanism to help relieve the economic impact caused by the plague. 'South Africa chairs this G20 year resolved to turn analysis into action and global consensus into ground-level change,' said Botes. Current international development financial frameworks are throttling emerging countries, which end up with unsustainable debt that 'crowds out' SDG spending, said Botes. He added that emerging markets need to 'participate equally in global decisions'. Botes also called for multilateral development banks to honour country ownership, credit rating agencies to reflect each country's fundamentals in their assessments and not prejudice them, and for developed economies to finally meet their Overseas Development Assistance and climate-finance commitments.
