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Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erick makes landfall in Mexico as Category 3 storm with 125-mph winds
Hurricane Erick has made landfall along the western coast of Mexico east of Acapulco as a Category 3 storm. Maximum sustained winds were 125 mph, dropping from 140 mph only hours earlier. In the Atlantic basin, conditions remain quiet. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves, including one in the eastern Caribbean. The first named storm in the Atlantic basin will be Andrea. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Some showers are possible across most of Florida on the Juneteenth holiday. Temperatures are expected to remain hot, with the heat index reaching as high as 105 in some locations. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. June 19. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin. Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic is located along 29W from 04N to 15N. It's moving west at 6 to 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has an axis along 46W from 04N to 15W. It's moving west at 6 to 11 mph. Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has been relocated based on observations and is now along 63W south of 17N into Venezuela. "The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20, but development over the central and eastern basin looks unfavorable through June at this time," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. Major hurricane Erick made landfall as a Category 3 storm in extreme western Oaxaca, Mexico, about 7:40 a.m. ET, according to the National Hurricane Center. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph, with higher gusts. Erick is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early June 20. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. Erick rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the last 24 hours. Just hours before landfall, Erick was a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. The National Hurricane Center warned wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds. In some elevated locations, wind speeds could be even greater. Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. "There is some dust moving through the Caribbean right now but most of it will stay south and west of Florida. Some will move into Texas and Louisiana late this week," DaSilva said. The next plume of dust that could impact South Florida may arrive around June 27 and could last a few days, DaSilva said via email. "The dust set to arrive in Florida in around 10 days could be comparable to the dust that went through Florida recently, however since it is still 10 days away and still over Africa, the dust concentration is still subject to change as it moves across the Atlantic." "Strong wind shear and an abundance of Saharan dust is helping to protect Florida," DaSilva said. There are "no concerns in the Atlantic for at least the next seven days. There is too much dry air and the wind shear is too high," DaSilva said. "If anything develops in June it would likely be in the Bay of Campeche or far western Caribbean, where the shear is a little lower." "The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20 and the average first hurricane is Aug. 11. It is not really that unusual for the start of the season to be quiet. Water temperatures and ocean heat content remain very high in the Gulf. "I think once we get more into the heart of the season, things could get very active. Expect a second-half loaded season. Dry air, including associated Saharan dust, along with wind shear, both prevent tropical systems from developing or strengthening, essentially cutting off the fuel storms need. Pensacola, western Panhandle: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Tallahassee, central Panhandle:A few showers are ongoing this morning with more expected to develop this afternoon. Expect a line of storms to move in from the north later this afternoon/evening. High near 93. Heat index values as high as 101. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as the sea breezes move inland. Isolated strong thunderstorm risk focuses between Highway 301 and I-95 from 4-9 p.m. Stronger storms will produce frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and wind gusts up to 45-55 mph. High near 93. Heat index values as high as 103. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Hot and humid once again, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, and mid-90s across the interior. Peak heat indices between 100 and 105. Scattered rain and storms today, with the greatest potential west of I-95 this afternoon/evening. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: West Palm Beach: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2 p.m., then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 84. Naples: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Typical summer conditions with highs in the lower to mid 90s along with a chance of afternoon and evening showers and storms. High near 92, with heat index as high as 102 in Fort Myers. High near 87, with heat index as high as 101 in Sarasota. Among the changes the National Hurricane Center announced for the 2025 hurricane season was the addition of a rip current risk map. ➤ National Hurricane Center lays out changes coming for 2025 season. See what to expect This new addition provided by the Hurricane Center will be provided for the current day, the next day, and as a composite showing the highest risk over both days for areas along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the coast of southern California. XXXXXThe map for June 18, shows high risks for rip currents along a portion of Florida's Panhandle, as well as along the Atlantic coast in Southeast Florida. ➤ Florida ranks in top 5 states where swimming is most dangerous. How to avoid summer tragedy The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic basin. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Hurricane Erick hits Mexico as Category 3 storm. Atlantic quiet
Newsweek
2 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Hurricane Erick Timeline as 'Life-Threatening' Storm Nears Landfall
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Hurricane Erick is expected to make landfall in Mexico during the early morning hours on Thursday, though some impacts from the life-threatening storm could arrive sooner, according to a forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). When reached for comment, the NHC directed Newsweek to the most recent forecasts for the storm. Why It Matters The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen an active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme and Tropical Storm Dalila in June. Now, the fifth storm, Hurricane Erick, is strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico and is expected to be the first storm to make landfall. The most recent forecast path for Hurricane Erick. The most recent forecast path for Hurricane Erick. National Hurricane Center What To Know As of the most recent data from the NHC, Erick is a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph. The storm is expected to rapidly strengthen and become a Category 3 major hurricane by the time it makes landfall. "Erick rapidly intensifying and forecast to become a major hurricane," a public advisory from the NHC said on Wednesday morning. "Expected to bring damaging winds and life-threatening flash floods to portions of southern Mexico late tonight and Thursday." The NHC anticipates tropical storm-force winds will reach Southern Mexico by Wednesday evening. The winds will progress in a northwest direction and will continue impacting Mexico through Thursday. Heavy rainfall also poses a risk with this storm, with some parts of coastal Oaxaca and Guerrera expecting as much as 20 inches of rain. Rain is set to begin on Wednesday night, AccuWeather reported, and also will move in a northwest direction with the storm. Rain will likely continue through the end of the week. The storm looks to make landfall Thursday morning. It will then trek northwest across Mexico throughout Thursday as it weakens back to tropical storm strength by Thursday night. In addition to dangerous winds and rainfall amounts, the storm will also cause life-threatening rip currents along the coast. What People Are Saying AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in a report: "We expect Erick to drift northwestward and close in on the southwestern coast of Mexico. Erick will rapidly strengthen for a time as it approaches the coast. Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane, ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding, as well as storm surge flooding." The NHC, in a forecast about Erick: "Erick is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. "Erick is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico." What Happens Next Impacts from the storm will begin later Wednesday and will persist at least through Thursday, although rain could continue into Friday. People in the affected areas are urged to follow guidance from local officials.
Miami Herald
3 days ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
Tropical Storm Erick Spaghetti Models Show Path Amid Major Hurricane Fears
Tropical Storm Erick is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane this week, with some meteorologists anticipating it will reach major hurricane status before making landfall in Mexico on Thursday morning. Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) via email for comment. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen an active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme, and Tropical Storm Dalila in June. Now, the fifth storm, Tropical Storm Erick, is strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico and is expected to be the first storm to make landfall. Tropical Storm Erick emerged in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday morning, rapidly drawing attention as it intensified while moving toward the southern coast of Mexico. The system, initially designated as Invest 94E, was identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a cluster of storms near Central America before being upgraded to a named tropical storm, as it demonstrated clear organization and strengthening characteristics. As of early Tuesday, Tropical Storm Erick was positioned about 410 miles southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico, with sustained winds of 45 mph and higher gusts. The NHC has predicted a west-northwest movement with Erick strengthening to hurricane status by Wednesday morning. Forecasters from AccuWeather and other meteorological agencies highlighted the storm's potential for rapid intensification and its threat to populated coastal regions. Erick's path was projected to bring substantial rainfall across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with rainfall amounts ranging between 8 and 16 inches. Spaghetti models, which are computer-generated simulations outlining possible storm tracks, indicated a trajectory toward southern Mexico, raising concerns about flooding, landslides, high winds, and dangerous surf conditions. Forecasts include warnings of potentially significant impacts if Erick continues to strengthen, particularly if it reaches major hurricane status prior to landfall. Early advisories place parts of southern Mexico under hurricane and tropical storm watches. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in a report: "There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico. Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding." NHC, in a forecast about Tropical Storm Erick: "Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco." The NHC will issue its next complete advisory about Erick at 3 p.m. CST. People in the affected areas are advised to monitor local weather forecasts as the storm continues to intensify. Related Articles Americans Warned To Stay Out of the Sun in 22 StatesMillions Warned To Stay Out of the Sun for 3 DaysHurricane Erick Update: Tropical Storm Strengthens in PacificThousands of Texas Residents Warned Not To Drink Alcohol 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
3 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Erick Spaghetti Models Show Path Amid Major Hurricane Fears
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Tropical Storm Erick is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane this week, with some meteorologists anticipating it will reach major hurricane status before making landfall in Mexico on Thursday morning. Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) via email for comment. Why It Matters The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen an active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme, and Tropical Storm Dalila in June. Now, the fifth storm, Tropical Storm Erick, is strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico and is expected to be the first storm to make landfall. What to Know Tropical Storm Erick emerged in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday morning, rapidly drawing attention as it intensified while moving toward the southern coast of Mexico. The system, initially designated as Invest 94E, was identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a cluster of storms near Central America before being upgraded to a named tropical storm, as it demonstrated clear organization and strengthening characteristics. A forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erick making landfall in Mexico on Thursday morning. It will likely be a hurricane at that time. A forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erick making landfall in Mexico on Thursday morning. It will likely be a hurricane at that time. National Hurricane Center As of early Tuesday, Tropical Storm Erick was positioned about 410 miles southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico, with sustained winds of 45 mph and higher gusts. The NHC has predicted a west-northwest movement with Erick strengthening to hurricane status by Wednesday morning. Forecasters from AccuWeather and other meteorological agencies highlighted the storm's potential for rapid intensification and its threat to populated coastal regions. Erick's path was projected to bring substantial rainfall across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with rainfall amounts ranging between 8 and 16 inches. Spaghetti models, which are computer-generated simulations outlining possible storm tracks, indicated a trajectory toward southern Mexico, raising concerns about flooding, landslides, high winds, and dangerous surf conditions. Forecasts include warnings of potentially significant impacts if Erick continues to strengthen, particularly if it reaches major hurricane status prior to landfall. Early advisories place parts of southern Mexico under hurricane and tropical storm watches. What People Are Saying AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in a report: "There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico. Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding." NHC, in a forecast about Tropical Storm Erick: "Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco." What Happens Next The NHC will issue its next complete advisory about Erick at 3 p.m. CST. People in the affected areas are advised to monitor local weather forecasts as the storm continues to intensify.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erick to strengthen rapidly, may become major hurricane
The eastern Pacific continues its tropical tear with the fifth tropical storm of the season alreadyin the books and the second hurricane on the way. AccuWeather meteorologists believe Tropical Storm Erick will rapidly strengthen over the next couple of days. It will quickly reach hurricane intensity and become the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern and Western Hemisphere so far this year before approaching the southwestern coast of Mexico. On the heels of Dalila, Tropical Storm Erick formed off the coast of Mexico early Tuesday morning and is forecast to become the second hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season in a matter of hours. This is the earliest fifth-named storm since July 9, 1956. The average date for the fifth-named storm is July 23. With now five tropical storms and one hurricane already history for the basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the fourth tropical storm does not form until mid-July, and the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26. Barbara briefly strengthened to a hurricane back on Sunday, June 8. "We expect Erick to slowly drift northwestward and become a hurricane prior to the end of the June 17 calendar day," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ "There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico," DaSilva said, "Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding." Factoring in the possibilities of intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current rainstorm is a 2, but that could climb based on how quickly and how much Erick strengthens and exactly where it approaches the Mexico coast. Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. This new storm could easily eclipse that intensity as it approaches the coast and populated areas. How much rain and wind occur to the north and east of the center will depend on the amount of strengthening prior to landfall later this week. Both heavy rain and gusty winds will reach Mexico in advance of the center of the storm. Enough rain is likely to fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Strong winds will buffet the coast, generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone. AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America. In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, yet another tropical rainstorm may unfold west of Central America prior to the end of the month (June 24-27). Tropical Atlantic continues to sleep Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin continues to struggle with vast areas of dry air, dust and disruptive winds-all of which are not uncommon tropical development deterrents early in the season. "While the chances have become very small, we continue to watch the area close in to land in the southwestern Gulf and the western Caribbean for tropical development late in June," DaSilva said. There have been some showers and thunderstorms in this area in recent days, but no organization has occurred. "Any tropical rainstorm or depression that were to form in the area would likely not spend much time over warm water and, hence, its lifespan would be brief," DaSilva said. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
