Tropical Storm Erick Spaghetti Models Show Path Amid Major Hurricane Fears
Tropical Storm Erick is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane this week, with some meteorologists anticipating it will reach major hurricane status before making landfall in Mexico on Thursday morning.
Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) via email for comment.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen an active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme, and Tropical Storm Dalila in June.
Now, the fifth storm, Tropical Storm Erick, is strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico and is expected to be the first storm to make landfall.
Tropical Storm Erick emerged in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday morning, rapidly drawing attention as it intensified while moving toward the southern coast of Mexico.
The system, initially designated as Invest 94E, was identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a cluster of storms near Central America before being upgraded to a named tropical storm, as it demonstrated clear organization and strengthening characteristics.
As of early Tuesday, Tropical Storm Erick was positioned about 410 miles southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico, with sustained winds of 45 mph and higher gusts. The NHC has predicted a west-northwest movement with Erick strengthening to hurricane status by Wednesday morning.
Forecasters from AccuWeather and other meteorological agencies highlighted the storm's potential for rapid intensification and its threat to populated coastal regions. Erick's path was projected to bring substantial rainfall across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with rainfall amounts ranging between 8 and 16 inches.
Spaghetti models, which are computer-generated simulations outlining possible storm tracks, indicated a trajectory toward southern Mexico, raising concerns about flooding, landslides, high winds, and dangerous surf conditions.
Forecasts include warnings of potentially significant impacts if Erick continues to strengthen, particularly if it reaches major hurricane status prior to landfall. Early advisories place parts of southern Mexico under hurricane and tropical storm watches.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in a report: "There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico. Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding."
NHC, in a forecast about Tropical Storm Erick: "Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco."
The NHC will issue its next complete advisory about Erick at 3 p.m. CST. People in the affected areas are advised to monitor local weather forecasts as the storm continues to intensify.
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