Tropical Storm Erick to strengthen rapidly, may become major hurricane
The eastern Pacific continues its tropical tear with the fifth tropical storm of the season alreadyin the books and the second hurricane on the way.
AccuWeather meteorologists believe Tropical Storm Erick will rapidly strengthen over the next couple of days. It will quickly reach hurricane intensity and become the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern and Western Hemisphere so far this year before approaching the southwestern coast of Mexico.
On the heels of Dalila, Tropical Storm Erick formed off the coast of Mexico early Tuesday morning and is forecast to become the second hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season in a matter of hours. This is the earliest fifth-named storm since July 9, 1956. The average date for the fifth-named storm is July 23.
With now five tropical storms and one hurricane already history for the basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the fourth tropical storm does not form until mid-July, and the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26. Barbara briefly strengthened to a hurricane back on Sunday, June 8.
"We expect Erick to slowly drift northwestward and become a hurricane prior to the end of the June 17 calendar day," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico," DaSilva said, "Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding."
Factoring in the possibilities of intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current rainstorm is a 2, but that could climb based on how quickly and how much Erick strengthens and exactly where it approaches the Mexico coast.
Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. This new storm could easily eclipse that intensity as it approaches the coast and populated areas.
How much rain and wind occur to the north and east of the center will depend on the amount of strengthening prior to landfall later this week. Both heavy rain and gusty winds will reach Mexico in advance of the center of the storm.
Enough rain is likely to fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
Strong winds will buffet the coast, generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America.
In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, yet another tropical rainstorm may unfold west of Central America prior to the end of the month (June 24-27).
Tropical Atlantic continues to sleep
Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin continues to struggle with vast areas of dry air, dust and disruptive winds-all of which are not uncommon tropical development deterrents early in the season.
"While the chances have become very small, we continue to watch the area close in to land in the southwestern Gulf and the western Caribbean for tropical development late in June," DaSilva said.
There have been some showers and thunderstorms in this area in recent days, but no organization has occurred. "Any tropical rainstorm or depression that were to form in the area would likely not spend much time over warm water and, hence, its lifespan would be brief," DaSilva said.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Dangerous heat wave set to hit NY: Temps could feel like 105 degrees
New Yorkers should prepare for the first significant heat wave of the year to land in the Empire state next week, according to AccuWeather and National Weather Service meteorologists. The heat wave is expected to grip New York beginning this weekend, with forecasters predicting highs in the low to mid-90s in most of New York lasting through at least Tuesday. The system is already underway, moving across the Midwest and plains, and is expected to expand and move into New York soon, said Weather Service Meteorologist Heather Kenyon. Heat index values - which combines the high humidity and air temperature - are expected to exceed 100 degrees, making the excessive heat feel even hotter. The temperature will start to rise over the weekend - with a predicted high in the upper 80s on Saturday and surpassing 90 on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, said Weather Service Meteorologist Steve Welch. On Wednesday, the high is predicted to drop back to the low 80s. As of Friday, the hottest day of the trio appears it will land on Monday - with a predicted high of 96 degrees, said Weather Service Meteorologist Heather Kenyon. What experts advise: What's the best temperature to set your AC to this summer? Both Sunday and Monday could see a heat index above 100 in upstate New York, with it potentially feeling like 105 degrees on Monday. That day, Kenyon said, New Yorkers will need to decrease the amount of time they are outside. Tuesday is predicted to feel less humid, but that could change as the forecast may shift. Yes. Some places in upstate New York could break records. In Rochester, for example, Sunday's record high of 93 was reached three times - in 2022, 1988 and 1957. Monday's record high of 95 was set in 1888 and Tuesday's record high of 96 was set in 1949, according to the Weather Service. The predicted highs on those three days are 93, 96 and 91, respectfully. If the mercury does rise above 90, it will be the first time for 2025 in Rochester, forecasters said. To date, the warmest day of the year in Rochester was on June 4, when the temperature reached 88 degrees, recorded by the Weather Service at the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport. The second warmest day of 2025 was April 29, when the high reached 84 degrees, according to the Weather Service. Outdoor events and work: Construction, sports and other outdoor activities may be disrupted or pose health risks. Vulnerable populations: Older adults, children and outdoor workers are especially at risk. Pets: Avoid walking pets during peak heat; hot pavement can cause burns. Check on neighbors, especially the elderly and those without air conditioning. Stay hydrated and avoid prolonged outdoor activity during the afternoon hours. 'Starting this weekend, it will be dangerously hot in many, many parts of our state,' Gov. Kathy Hochul said at a Friday morning news conference about the pending extreme heat. 'I know New Yorkers are tough – we like to think we're really tough – but this is not your run-of-the-mill hot summer week.' With the heat index expecting to surpass 100 degrees is rather unusual - but not unheard of - in New York. But given the recent moderate temperature throughout New York, 'this is going to be a real shock to the system.' "I cannot stress this enough," Hochul said. "Extreme heat can be deadly." Stay safe and stay indoors whenever possible during such extreme heat, she said. More than 55,000 utility workers are on standby throughout the state in the case of weather-related power outages, she said. State employees will also be on modified schedules, and Hochul during the news conference encouraged private business owners to be mindful of employees who work outdoors. For Primary Day - which is Tuesday, June 24 – the high is predicted to reach the low 90s. Hochul is encouraging residents to take advantage of early voting – where available - before the extreme heat kicks in. This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Dangerous heat wave set to hit NY: Temps could feel like 105 degrees
New York Times
3 hours ago
- New York Times
This Hurricane Season Is One of the Slowest to Start in 20 Years
The first day of the Atlantic hurricane season came and went on June 1 without a named storm. And then the first week. And the second. Now we are in the third week, and the National Hurricane Center says it does not expect any activity in the next few days. That is both unusual, and not. The 'slow' start is unremarkable if you look at what meteorologists currently call 'normal': a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020. Over that span, on average, the first storm didn't form until June 20. But for many of the most recent years — 18 times since 2005 — storms developed before this point in the year. For the people who make their homes in the Caribbean or along the United States coastlines and watch the rhythms of a hurricane season closely, this has been an unusual dry spell. Other notable statistics over the last 20 years: In 10 years, the first named storm formed before June 1. In only two years — now three, including this year — the first named storm arrived after June 20. The latest first storm formed on Aug. 11, 2009. When does a storm get a name? When a tropical cyclone develops but its sustained wind speeds are 38 miles per hour or less, it's called a tropical depression. When they reach 39 m.p.h., it becomes a tropical storm and is given a name. It keeps that name if it becomes a hurricane (sustained winds at 74 m.p.h. or greater) or if it dissipates. Some storms form and get a name but never approach land before weakening. Others become so destructive at landfall that their names are retired afterward. Does it matter when the first storm forms? Not necessarily. A lack of activity in May and June doesn't mean it won't end up a busy season. Many experts don't expect significant storms until mid-August. Strong early storms, like Hurricane Beryl last year, are rare. Most of the storms that cause significant damage in the United States occur during August, September and October. Were the forecasts for an above-average year wrong? No. Well, maybe. This spring, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above-average season. If nothing forms between now and August, the experts are likely to revise — and reduce — the number of storms they expect to see this June remains quiet, but then July isn't, forecasters will probably continue to expect an above-average year, despite the slow start. The Pacific, meanwhile, has been active. The Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began on May 15, has been off to a busy start. Storms that form off the west coast of North America typically get started before their counterparts in the Atlantic, and there have been five already this year: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila and Erick. Seasons in both oceans run through Nov. 30.
CNN
5 hours ago
- CNN
Video: Erick makes landfall as Category 3 hurricane in Mexico
Hurricane Erick slammed into Mexico's Oaxaca state as a dangerous Category 3 storm Thursday morning, unleashing powerful winds along the coast and spreading heavy rain over the region.
