Canada's services PMI falls to 5-month low on tariff concerns
TORONTO, March 5 (Reuters) - The downturn in Canada's services economy deepened in February as firms avoided committing to new business in anticipation of a trade war, S&P Global's Canada services PMI data showed on Wednesday.
The headline Business Activity Index fell to 46.6 from 49.0 in January, the third straight month below the 50.0 no-change mark and the lowest level since September. A reading below 50 shows a contraction in activity.
"February saw the Canadian service sector hit hard by the spectre of tariffs being applied to all goods and services crossing the border with the U.S.," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement."
"Panellists widely reported that market activity had been paralysed by tariff uncertainty, with clients unwilling to commit to new business as they waited to see the size and scope of any changes to respective Canadian and U.S. trade policies."
U.S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa was launching 25% tariffs on C$30 billion ($20.7 billion) worth of U.S. imports.
The New Business Index was at 45.1, down from 49.4 in January, and the measure of new export business slumped to 38.7, its lowest level since December 2020.
"Confidence amongst service providers themselves was inevitably impacted ... This meant firms adopted an increasingly cautious attitude, cutting employment noticeably and to the greatest degree since June 2020," Smith said.
The Employment Index was at 47.3, down from 48.3 in January, while the measure of input prices rose to a four-month high of 60.4 as a weaker Canadian dollar contributed to increased costs.
The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI Output Index fell to 46.8 last month from 49.5 in January, marking the steepest contraction in output since January 2024.
Data on Monday showed that Canadian manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in six months in February. The manufacturing PMI was at 47.8, down from 51.6 in January.
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The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
‘This presidency is a brand-franchise': Trump has taken the commercialization of politics to a new level
'I like thinking big. I always have. To me it's very simple: if you're going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big.' Those were Donald Trump's words to writer Tony Schwartz in the Art of the Deal. In his second term, Trump has been thinking big about making money. Since his reelection campaign began, Trump is estimated to have more than doubled his net worth to $5.4bn. A sizeable chunk of that cash has come from the launch of Trump-branded products. This week the Trump Organization entered the mobile phone business with a Trump-branded service that will include a 'sleek gold' phone, which costs $499, that is 'made in America'. Maybe? Never to miss a patriotic marketing moment, they launched Trump Mobile at Trump Tower in New York on the 10-year anniversary of their father's announcement at the top of a gold escalator, to the sound of Neil Young's Rockin' in the Free World, that he would run for president. The premium tier of service would be dubbed the 47 Plan, priced at $47.45 a month. Donald Trump Jr said the brothers had partnered with 'some of the greatest people in the industry to make sure that real Americans get true value from their mobile carriers'. 'Celebrity' phone launches are hardly new. The launch announcement came days after the actor-hosts of the popular SmartLess podcast – Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes – announced their own cut price phone plan, and more than two years since actor Ryan Reynolds profited from his stake in Mint Mobile, sold to T-Mobile for $1.35bn. So was Trump – or the Trumps – thinking big or just following a pattern of seemingly random licensing deals that renew concerns about the president's business enterprises? After all, if Trump is really concerned about phone prices, he could – as president – push for legislative change. 'There was a lot of dialog when Trump returned to power that we would see in this term a particularly interesting residency in the White House about how much money would be made,' says marketing-PR guru Mark Borkowski, 'and this is a typical Trump side-hustle playing off Maga patriotism.' The blurred lines between business and politics, impacting how candidates are portrayed, policies are shaped and voters engage with the political process – commonly referred to as the commercialization of politics – may not be Trump's to own exclusively, but he's taken it to a new level. 'It is troubling, and more than in jest, that this is now a political economy and he's actually saying this presidency is a brand-franchise,' says Borkowski. 'There is no separation between power and profit. He's redrawn the boundaries between commerce and the office of the president, and he's accelerated the notion of post-ethical politics.' The gold phone and patriotically-priced phone plan – '47' referring to Trump's current term, and '45' referring to the previous – is only the latest ask of the Maga (Make America Great Again) faithful, otherwise known as ultra-Magas, to show their commitment in dollar terms. 'The Trumps' continued business expansion often serves to reinforce Trump's political persona rather than distract from it. For Maga supporters, his business ventures are interpreted as proof of his self-made success and outsider status – both key pillars of his political brand,' says Zak Revskyi at the New York brand management consultancy Baden Bower. 'These business moves don't just coexist with his political identity – they actively feed into it. They help sustain the image of Trump as a results-oriented executive who blends capitalism with populism,' Revskyi adds. On Thursday, Bloomberg revealed that investment bank Dominari Holdings, where Donald Jr and Eric work as advisers, helped an obscure toymaker selling Smurf-branded tumblers, koala backpacks and plush sea turtles, pivot into crypto this week, sending its shares up more than 500%. The outlet noted that there was no sign in regulatory filings that Trump family members were involved in this or previous crypto-related transactions through the bank – which is based in Trump Tower – but noted that 'the gain added to the windfalls of executives orbiting the president's family'. Aside from the Trump's well-publicized (and profitable) adventures in crypto – his ownership stake in World Liberty Financial produced $57,355,532 in income since it was launched last year – the family brand has upped by 20 its Trump-branded real-estate projects around the globe, calculated Citizens for Ethics, including an 80-storey skyscraper in Dubai, and plans for branded hotels in Riyadh and Jeddah, and a golf course in Qatar, to an estimated value of $10bn. A 234-page financial disclosure form released by the Office of Government Ethics this month showed 145 pages of stock and bond investments. The disclosure showed that 2024 was a very good year for royalty payments from products featuring his name and likeness. Sign up to This Week in Trumpland A deep dive into the policies, controversies and oddities surrounding the Trump administration after newsletter promotion Among them, calculated NBC News, was $3m from a Save America coffee table book; $2.5m from Trump sneakers and fragrances; $2.8m from Trump watches; $1.3m from a Trump-endorsed Bible; and just over $1m each from '45' guitars and non-fungible token (NFT) sales. Most have at least some aspect of gold-coloring, according to a review of the 'Golden Age of America' Trump collection. Many of the assets are held in a revocable trust overseen by Donald Jr, including more than 100,000 shares, or 53%, of Trump Media and Technology Group, the company that owns Truth Social, valued at 5.15bn, or held in partnerships that do not require divestment under conflict of interest laws. The business of selling the family name hums along despite, or because of, the on-the-fly dramas that envelope the White House from week to week. The White House claims that the president 'has been the most transparent president in history in all respects, including when it comes to his finances', noting that Trump handed over 'his multibillion-dollar empire in order to serve our country, and he has sacrificed greatly'. The Trump phone, which analysts doubt can be 'made in America', as promotional materials assert, is merely an add-on to a thriving political-business operation. Democrats have found it hard to find a footing in calling out the interplay, in part because Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, was similarly accused of allowing a family business of influence peddling to evolve around him and issued a pre-emptive pardon of family members before he left office. 'I don't do it for the money. I've got enough, much more than I'll ever need. I do it to do it,' Trump wrote in the opening lines of in the Art of the Deal, published in 1987. 'Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That's how I get my kicks.' But under Trump politics and business have become melded as never before. 'It's a new hyper-reality that exists in America,' says Borkowski. 'It's about turning political fandom into money, and he's laughing all the way to the bank. He's doing exactly what was expected. Nobody in Trump's heartland sees this as damaging – it's what they expect a deal-maker to do. The absurdity of everything Trump does is the point.'
Reuters
3 hours ago
- Reuters
Europeans seek 'digital sovereignty' as US tech firms embrace Trump
BERLIN, June 21 (Reuters) - At a market stall in Berlin run by charity Topio, volunteers help people who want to purge their phones of the influence of U.S. tech firms. Since Donald Trump's inauguration, the queue for their services has grown. Interest in European-based digital services has jumped in recent months, data from digital market intelligence company Similarweb shows. More people are looking for e-mail, messaging and even search providers outside the United States. The first months of Trump's second presidency have shaken some Europeans' confidence in their long-time ally, after he signalled his country would step back from its role in Europe's security and then launched a trade war. "It's about the concentration of power in U.S. firms," said Topio's founder Michael Wirths, as his colleague installed on a customer's phone a version of the Android operating system without hooks into the Google ecosystem. Wirths said the type of people coming to the stall had changed: "Before, it was people who knew a lot about data privacy. Now it's people who are politically aware and feel exposed." Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab chief Elon Musk, who also owns social media company X, was a leading adviser to the U.S. president before the two fell out, while the bosses of Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, Meta (META.O), opens new tab and Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab took prominent spots at Trump's inauguration in January. Days before Trump took office, outgoing president Joe Biden had warned of an oligarchic "tech industrial complex" threatening democracy. Berlin-based search engine Ecosia says it has benefited from some customers' desire to avoid U.S. counterparts like Microsoft's (MSFT.O), opens new tab Bing or Google, which dominates web searches and is also the world's biggest email provider. "The worse it gets, the better it is for us," founder Christian Kroll said of Ecosia, whose sales pitch is that it spends its profits on environmental projects. Similarweb data shows the number of queries directed to Ecosia, opens new tab from the European Union has risen 27% year-on-year and the company says it has 1% of the German search engine market. But its 122 million visits from the 27 EU countries in February were dwarfed by 10.3 billion visits to Google, whose parent Alphabet made revenues of about $100 billion from Europe, the Middle East and Africa in 2024 - nearly a third of its $350 billion global turnover. Non-profit Ecosia earned 3.2 million euros ($3.65 million) in April, of which 770,000 euros was spent on planting 1.1 million trees. Google declined to comment for this story. Reuters could not determine whether major U.S. tech companies have lost any market share to local rivals in Europe. The search for alternative providers accompanies a debate in Europe about "digital sovereignty" - the idea that reliance on companies from an increasingly isolationist United States is a threat to Europe's economy and security. "Ordinary people, the kind of people who would never have thought it was important they were using an American service are saying, 'hang on!'," said UK-based internet regulation expert Maria Farrell. "My hairdresser was asking me what she should switch to." Use in Europe of Swiss-based ProtonMail rose 11.7% year-on-year to March compared to a year ago, according to Similarweb, while use of Alphabet's Gmail, which has some 70% of the global email market, slipped 1.9%. ProtonMail, which offers both free and paid-for services, said it had seen an increase in users from Europe since Trump's re-election, though it declined to give a number. "My household is definitely disengaging," said British software engineer Ken Tindell, citing weak U.S. data privacy protections as one factor. Trump's vice president JD Vance shocked European leaders in February by accusing them - at a conference usually known for displays of transatlantic unity - of censoring free speech and failing to control immigration. In May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened visa bans for people who "censor" speech by Americans, including on social media, and suggested the policy could target foreign officials regulating U.S. tech companies. U.S. social media companies like Facebook and Instagram parent Meta have said the European Union's Digital Services Act amounts to censorship of their platforms. EU officials say the Act will make the online environment safer by compelling tech giants to tackle illegal content, including hate speech and child sexual abuse material. Greg Nojeim, director of the Security and Surveillance Project at the Center for Democracy & Technology, said Europeans' concerns about the U.S. government accessing their data, whether stored on devices or in the cloud, were justified. Not only does U.S. law permit the government to search devices of anyone entering the country, it can compel disclosure of data that Europeans outside the U.S. store or transmit through U.S. communications service providers, Nojeim said. Germany's new government is itself making efforts to reduce exposure to U.S. tech, committing in its coalition agreement to make more use of open-source data formats and locally-based cloud infrastructure. Regional governments have gone further - in conservative-run Schleswig-Holstein, on the Danish border, all IT used by the public administration must run on open-source software. Berlin has also paid for Ukraine to access a satellite-internet network operated by France's Eutelsat ( opens new tab instead of Musk's Starlink. But with modern life driven by technology, "completely divorcing U.S. tech in a very fundamental way is, I would say, possibly not possible," said Bill Budington of U.S. digital rights nonprofit the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Everything from push notifications to the content delivery networks powering many websites and how internet traffic is routed relies largely on U.S. companies and infrastructure, Budington noted. Both Ecosia and French-based search engine Qwant depend in part on search results provided by Google and Microsoft's Bing, while Ecosia runs on cloud platforms, some hosted by the very same tech giants it promises an escape from. Nevertheless, a group on messaging board Reddit called BuyFromEU has 211,000 members. "Just cancelled my Dropbox and will switch to Proton Drive," read one post. Mastodon, a decentralised social media service developed by German programmer Eugen Rochko, enjoyed a rush of new users two years ago when Musk bought Twitter, later renamed X. But it remains a niche service. Signal, a messaging app run by a U.S. nonprofit foundation, has also seen a surge in installations from Europe. Similarweb's data showed a 7% month-on-month increase in Signal usage in March, while use of Meta's WhatsApp was static. Meta declined to comment for this story. Signal did not respond to an e-mailed request for comment. But this kind of conscious self-organising is unlikely on its own to make a dent in Silicon Valley's European dominance, digital rights activist Robin Berjon told Reuters. "The market is too captured," he said. "Regulation is needed as well."
NBC News
3 hours ago
- NBC News
Health care has been a job market bright spot, but Trump's budget bill looms over the industry
Proposed cuts to health insurance programs in the budget bill being pushed through Congress by President Donald Trump could put hundreds of thousands of health care jobs at risk — jeopardizing one of the few notably strong areas of the U.S. job market. Congressional Republicans are advancing a budget plan that would cause nearly 8 million people on Medicaid to lose their health insurance coverage, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, with an additional 2 million people to lose coverage through the Affordable Care Act if Congress remains on track to let health insurance tax subsidies expire at the end of the year. Less funding for Medicaid and fewer people with health insurance would mean a drop-off in doctor's office visits, prescription refills and medical procedures — and, as a result, fewer workers needed to support those types of services. It could lead to the loss of nearly 500,000 health care jobs over the next decade, according to an analysis by George Washington University and the Commonwealth Fund. The expiration of the ACA tax subsidies, which were enacted in 2021, would result in the loss of an additional 140,000 jobs, a separate analysis from George Washington University found. 'Hospitals will close, health centers will close, pharmacies in some parts of the country will close because they will lose revenue,' said Leighton Ku, director for the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University, who worked on the analyses. 'There are going to be job losses, and we're talking about middle class jobs being lost.' That would be a blow to one of the strongest, steadiest areas of the job market in recent years. Health care accounted for nearly half of the jobs added in the U.S. in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last year, around half of the 2.2 million jobs added to the economy were in health care-related sectors, according to an analysis by S&P Global. That has helped offset job cuts and stagnant growth in other sectors of the labor market, like retail and manufacturing. 'Right now, a lot of what is driving these positive headline numbers and bolstering the labor market is the health care sector,' said Allison Shrivastava, an economist with job listing site 'It's something that has been a constant. The health care sector has been a pretty big mainstay as the rest of the labor market has cooled.' The health insurance provisions are part of a broader spending bill that has passed the House and is currently making its way through the Senate. The legislation, which Republicans have dubbed the " Big Beautiful Bill Act," would cut around $800 billion from Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor and disabled, in order to help offset some of the $4 trillion in tax cut extensions in the bill for individuals and corporations. A version of the bill currently in the Senate, which plans to start voting on the legislation next week, would go even further in reducing spending on Medicaid, by including a provision to limit states' use of taxes on hospitals and other health care providers that help states fund their share of the Medicaid program. The cuts would take a particular toll on health care providers in rural areas, where patients are more likely to be insured through Medicaid than those in metro areas. Researchers at Georgetown University found that 40% of children in small and rural towns receive their health insurance from Medicaid. Already, one-third of all rural hospitals in the country are at risk of closing because of financial difficulties, according to a report this month from the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform. Also at risk are Community Health Centers, which employ more than 300,000 workers and receive a portion of their funding from the federal government. Those centers, which serve at least 32 million mostly lower-income patients a year, get about 40% of their revenue from Medicaid. 'Our health centers operate on razor-thin margins, so any kind of disruption in payments or reimbursements, even for a short time, can have a significant impact,' said Joe Dunn, chief policy officer for the National Association of Community Health Centers. 'About 40% of health centers are in rural America, and oftentimes they are the only primary care in that community. We have health centers in towns of a few hundred people, and there may not be any other kind of health care network there.' Absent any policy changes from Congress, the health care sector had appeared to be on track for continued growth — and largely isolated from wider concerns about tariffs and an economic slowdown. The number of job postings for doctors and surgeons on are about 90% higher than their pre-pandemic levels, listings for home health aides are up 46%, and openings for nurses are up 16%, Shrivastava said. Health care job postings on represent 27% of all active job listings and health care postings are beginning to make up a larger share of new job postings, according to data from ZipRecruiter. A loss of that hiring momentum from funding cuts would leave one less positive driver for the job market. 'Right now, the labor market as a whole is arguably in a stagnant position,' said Shrivastava. 'People are not wanting to leave their jobs, they're nervous about whether or not they'll be able to find another job, and companies aren't really looking to hire. Health care has been the exception to that.'
