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Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pre-Markets Climb on Rate Cut Visibility
Friday, June 20, 2025We finish off the trading week after a nice edge-of-summer break for Juneteenth yesterday. Pre-market indexes are climbing a quarter-point to a third of a point higher at this hour, with the small-cap Russell 2000 already up more than +1%. Only the Russell is up over the past five trading days, but the other indexes are Dow is up +114 points right now, with the S&P 500 +14. The Nasdaq is +62 points at this hour, with the Russell +25 points. Currently, only the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up (marginally) year to date. Bond yields are remaining in place, more or less: +4.44% on the 10-year, +3.95% on the 2-year and +4.94% on the 30-year. Headline Philly Fed manufacturing came in at -4.0 for June, equalling the prior month's level and notching the third-straight month lower. Business conditions, capital expenditures, new orders and prices paid were all lower last month. And the Employment Index sank lower than expected, to -9.8. This could be seen as a further indication of a softening labor market in the traders are not missing this opportunity: a sinking Employment Index, while a relatively minor part of the Philly Fed Index (which focuses on the region around Philadelphia and the goods-producing sector there), do point to an opening for the Fed to lower interest rates at some point in the future. But the Fed would have to see demonstrably worse employment numbers first. We will most certainly track this new infusion of positivity into the stock market; it may even bring us a positive trading week over all, depending on the size of gains. We also have to keep our eyes and ears open about potential trade deals ahead of the July 9th deadline, as well as any new developments in the Middle East, on which President Trump has cooled his rhetoric (with yet another self-imposed deadline of two weeks before making a decision on whether to make a move on Iran).After today's open, the latest U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report will come out for the month of May. Expectations are for a headline to drift marginally negative: -0.1%, from a deeper -1.0% for April and -0.8% for March. We are now scraping 9-year lows on LEI — well off the late 2021/early 2022 April, all components were lower except Lending Credit and Manufacturing New Orders, both of which were up marginally. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has fully recovered from Covid-era lows to keep its upward trajectory. While the LEI is a leading indicator for growth, the CEI reflects current economic conditions. It's a big data week starting on Monday. Various prints on the housing market, Services and Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — a week from today — will all be hitting the tape. PCE levels in particular are important, as they tend to have a pronounced effect on future Fed monetary policy or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Philly Fed Ticks in Lower Than Expected
We finish off the trading week after a nice edge-of-summer break for Juneteenth yesterday. Pre-market indexes are climbing a quarter-point to a third of a point higher at this hour, with the small-cap Russell 2000 already up more than +1%. Only the Russell is up over the past five trading days, but the other indexes are approaching. The Dow is up +114 points right now, with the S&P 500 +14. The Nasdaq is +62 points at this hour, with the Russell +25 points. Currently, only the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up (marginally) year to date. Bond yields are remaining in place, more or less: +4.44% on the 10-year, +3.95% on the 2-year and +4.94% on the 30-year. Headline Philly Fed manufacturing came in at -4.0 for June, equalling the prior month's level and notching the third-straight month lower. Business conditions, capital expenditures, new orders and prices paid were all lower last month. And the Employment Index sank lower than expected, to -9.8. This could be seen as a further indication of a softening labor market in the U.S. Pre-market traders are not missing this opportunity: a sinking Employment Index, while a relatively minor part of the Philly Fed Index (which focuses on the region around Philadelphia and the goods-producing sector there), do point to an opening for the Fed to lower interest rates at some point in the future. But the Fed would have to see demonstrably worse employment numbers first. We will most certainly track this new infusion of positivity into the stock market; it may even bring us a positive trading week over all, depending on the size of gains. We also have to keep our eyes and ears open about potential trade deals ahead of the July 9th deadline, as well as any new developments in the Middle East, on which President Trump has cooled his rhetoric (with yet another self-imposed deadline of two weeks before making a decision on whether to make a move on Iran). After today's open, the latest U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report will come out for the month of May. Expectations are for a headline to drift marginally negative: -0.1%, from a deeper -1.0% for April and -0.8% for March. We are now scraping 9-year lows on LEI — well off the late 2021/early 2022 highs. For April, all components were lower except Lending Credit and Manufacturing New Orders, both of which were up marginally. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has fully recovered from Covid-era lows to keep its upward trajectory. While the LEI is a leading indicator for growth, the CEI reflects current economic conditions. It's a big data week starting on Monday. Various prints on the housing market, Services and Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — a week from today — will all be hitting the tape. PCE levels in particular are important, as they tend to have a pronounced effect on future Fed monetary policy decisions. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK accountants' confidence rises amid tough conditions
Accountants in the UK experienced a slight uptick in confidence during the first quarter of 2025, following a record low in the final quarter of 2024, according to the latest Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS). The survey, carried out by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA), revealed growing optimism among UK-based small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), although the degree of confidence varied across sectors. The New Orders Index saw a second consecutive increase yet remains below its historical average. The Employment Index showed a improvement, while the Capital Expenditure Index experienced a decline, both remaining at 'historically' low levels. Worries about suppliers and customers going out of business have eased, though notable concerns remain in several critical areas, the survey found. ACCA UK head of technical and strategic engagement Glenn Collins said: 'With business confidence so low and all the talk of government strategies, now is the time for action. The lack of final published strategies has a negative impact on businesses, who look to those plans to prioritise investment and grow. 'While the global market flux provides a challenging environment, it also provides opportunities for business to expand into new markets and a lack of positive forward momentum is holding us back.' IMA senior director of Europe operations & global special projects Alain Mulder said: 'New US policies on trade and government spending, and the uncertainty surrounding them, appear to have had a large negative impact on confidence, while declines in the global markets and signs of slowing in the US economy were likely factors too.' There was a 'meaningful' rise in respondents reporting increased operating costs, reaching the highest level since Q1 2023. Indices for securing prompt payment and accessing finance both rose for the second consecutive quarter, potentially affecting business cashflow and financial viability. ACCA chief economist Jonathan Ashworth said: 'Global growth has generally proved quite resilient over recent quarters. Nonetheless, the longer that confidence remains depressed, the greater the risk that a self-reinforcing negative cycle could potentially develop, with firms pulling back on orders, capital expenditure and hiring. 'Unfortunately, with global trade tensions stepping up markedly since the survey was completed, the downside risks to the global economy have increased significantly.' Globally, the GECS found that accountants' confidence dipped further at the start of 2025, although the decline was milder compared to the sharp drop in Q4 2024. The survey noted that confidence is at its lowest since Q2 2020, with North America experiencing a sharp fall. In North America, US-based accountants reported their second-lowest confidence levels ever, citing US trade policy and government spending cuts as key factors influencing sentiment. "UK accountants' confidence rises amid tough conditions " was originally created and published by The Accountant, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
05-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canada's services PMI falls to 5-month low on tariff concerns
TORONTO, March 5 (Reuters) - The downturn in Canada's services economy deepened in February as firms avoided committing to new business in anticipation of a trade war, S&P Global's Canada services PMI data showed on Wednesday. The headline Business Activity Index fell to 46.6 from 49.0 in January, the third straight month below the 50.0 no-change mark and the lowest level since September. A reading below 50 shows a contraction in activity. "February saw the Canadian service sector hit hard by the spectre of tariffs being applied to all goods and services crossing the border with the U.S.," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement." "Panellists widely reported that market activity had been paralysed by tariff uncertainty, with clients unwilling to commit to new business as they waited to see the size and scope of any changes to respective Canadian and U.S. trade policies." U.S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa was launching 25% tariffs on C$30 billion ($20.7 billion) worth of U.S. imports. The New Business Index was at 45.1, down from 49.4 in January, and the measure of new export business slumped to 38.7, its lowest level since December 2020. "Confidence amongst service providers themselves was inevitably impacted ... This meant firms adopted an increasingly cautious attitude, cutting employment noticeably and to the greatest degree since June 2020," Smith said. The Employment Index was at 47.3, down from 48.3 in January, while the measure of input prices rose to a four-month high of 60.4 as a weaker Canadian dollar contributed to increased costs. The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI Output Index fell to 46.8 last month from 49.5 in January, marking the steepest contraction in output since January 2024. Data on Monday showed that Canadian manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in six months in February. The manufacturing PMI was at 47.8, down from 51.6 in January.
