Latest news with #PMI
Mint
4 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
India's core sector output grows 0.7% in May
New Delhi: The output of eight core infrastructure sectors, which account for two-fifths of India's industrial output, expanded by 0.7% in May, the ministry of commerce & industry said on Friday. The expansion was led by positive growth in the production of cement, steel, coal and refinery products The index had expanded by a revised 1% in April. The Index of Eight Core Industries measures the combined and individual output of key industries – coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 percent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production. India's manufacturing sector activity had dropped to a three-month low in May as growth in new orders and output softened, a private survey showed on 2 June. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 57.6 in May from 58.2 in April and 58.1 in March. India's manufacturing PMI was 56.3 in February and 57.7 in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
LSM: Time machine the wrong way
The latest data from Pakistan's Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector paints a troubling picture: not of a comeback, but of an industry stuck in a prolonged state of regression. Yes, May 2025 marked a 2.3 percent year-on-year growth — the third positive monthly print this calendar year — but this is no sign of a turnaround. It's more of a dead cat bounce than a structural recovery. Cumulatively, LSM contraction has now entered its ninth straight month, with 10MFY25 output down 1.52 percent. The headline figure for March, previously celebrated as a return to growth at 1.78 percent, has been quietly revised down — and how. The revised March figure now shows a contraction of 2.78 percent, marking the lowest reading since the start of the current LSM base, barring the COVID-induced collapse of FY20. The culprit? A massive downward revision in the food index, led by sugar. March's sugar output was chopped significantly in the revised data, dragging the entire sector down. Seasonal production of sugar now clocks in at 5.78 million tons — nearly a million tons short of last year's haul. And with May historically contributing little to sugar output, the final season numbers are likely to be 8–9 percent below last year. Despite the recent uptick, the broader reality remains grim. The LSM index for April is barely above readings from the past two years, and still a full 10 percentage points below its FY18 level. In fact, output levels are now back to where they were in FY17 — wiping out nearly eight years of supposed industrial progress. On a cumulative basis, output is even lower than FY19 and only marginally ahead of FY21 — and that's saying something. To put it bluntly: Pakistan's industrial time machine isn't broken. It's just been set permanently in reverse. The diffusion index — a measure of how widespread growth is — offers some surface-level hope, with 12 of 22 tracked sectors in the green. But scratch the surface, and the optimism fades. Only a handful of these are growing with any real momentum. The rest are dragging their feet. Pharmaceuticals and textiles are barely growing at under 3 percent. Readymade garments have lost steam since earlier this year. The one relatively bright spot is automobiles, buoyed by a low base and some modest demand recovery. Meanwhile, the industrial backbone continues to deteriorate. Cement, steel, chemicals, and white goods — once the bellwethers of economic progress — are stuck in the red. Food has now officially joined that club, led by the sugar slump. 10 LSM subsectors are still operating below the index level that marked the beginning of this base year. Some may never climb back. That's not cyclical weakness. That's structural decay. To be fair, there are glimmers of hope. The State Bank's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May reached a 12-month high. Capacity utilization across industries is holding steady at 65.7 percent — broadly in line with the last year's average. And while the central bank kept interest rates unchanged in its latest policy meeting, it did signal expectations of recovery led by services and industry in FY26. But the devil is in the details — or in this case, the omissions. The Monetary Policy Committee avoided naming any specific LSM sectors poised for growth. That's because, apart from autos, the cupboard is nearly bare. Growth in private sector credit, sentiment indicators, and import flows were cited instead. Translation: there's hope, but not a whole lot of substance behind it — at least not yet. Lower industrial electricity tariffs and cheaper credit might help slow the bleeding. But resurrecting industrial momentum is a different beast altogether. The highs of FY22 aren't just out of reach — they're not even on the industrial engine isn't revving up. It's idling in neutral — and sometimes slipping into reverse. And unless there's a concerted effort to address the structural issues holding LSM back, no amount of sugar-coating is going to change that.
eNCA
3 days ago
- Health
- eNCA
E-cigarettes at a crossroads: Will SA's Tobacco Bill embrace harm-reduction?
CAPE TOWN - South Africa stands at a pivotal moment in tobacco regulation, as Parliament revisits the controversial Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Control Bill. The proposed legislation has sparked intense debate between health experts, industry players and policymakers over whether smoke-free alternatives like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products should be treated as tools for harm-reduction or subjected to the same strict regulations as conventional cigarettes. The bill in its current form would impose sweeping new rules, including plain olive-brown packaging for tobacco products, with graphic health warnings covering 65% of the surface; a complete ban on all tobacco advertising and promotions; restrictions to only tobacco and menthol flavours for vaping products; and prohibitions on public vaping wherever smoking is banned. Crucially, it makes no distinction between traditional cigarettes and cigarette alternatives. Philip Morris International (PMI), which manufactures the IQOS heated tobacco products, has emerged as a leading voice calling for regulatory differentiation. Supplied The company cites peer-reviewed studies showing its products release significantly fewer toxicants than traditional cigarettes. "The science is clear; these products are not risk-free, but they are a better alternative for smokers who won't quit," says PMI vice-president for Sub-Saharan Africa, Branislav Bibic. On the sidelines of the company's Technovation conference in Cape Town, Bibic said the plan was to replace cigarettes with smoke-free products. PMI director of external affairs for Southern Africa, Themba Mathebula, has been vocal about the potential consequences of the bill in its current form. He says by 'applying the same restrictions to scientifically proven reduced-risk products as we do to cigarettes, we're essentially telling smokers there's no reason to switch". PMI argues that South Africa could follow the example of countries such as the UK and Japan, where differentiated regulation has coincided with accelerated declines in smoking rates. Supplied However, health advocacy groups remain sceptical. They point to concerns about youth vaping and argue there is insufficient long-term data on the safety of e-cigarettes. Some lawmakers are also hesitant to embrace products claiming harm-reduction without a formal report from the National Economic Development and Labour Council on the science behind these alternatives. The tobacco debate comes at a critical juncture for South Africa's public health and economy. Proponents of harm-reducing products warn that treating all nicotine products equally could stifle innovation and keep safer alternatives out of reach. Critics counter that lax regulation could lead to new public health challenges. South Africa, therefore, faces a fundamental question: Will it join the growing number of countries incorporating harm-reduction into tobacco control, or will it take a more restrictive path? Whatever decision it makes will have lasting implications for millions of South African smokers and the country's public health landscape.
Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Navigating global headwinds and capital shifts in Asia Pacific
AS WE approach the second half of 2025, the investment landscape is facing a series of challenges and opportunities driven by global economic shifts, geopolitical tensions and structural changes. For investors in Asia Pacific, navigating this evolving environment requires a nuanced approach, balancing caution with strategic positioning to capitalise on selective opportunities. The global economy is grappling with headwinds, including a potential US economic slowdown, weakening Chinese growth and persistent geopolitical tensions. Amid these challenges, monetary easing is likely, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates to the 3.25 to 3.5 per cent range by June 2026. While this may provide some relief, it also highlights broader concerns about the strength of the US recovery and global demand. Where we see opportunities In light of these uncertainties, we have adopted a neutral risk stance across our portfolios. While regional equities present occasional trading opportunities driven by extremes in risk-reward or positive developments, we are cautious overall. US equity valuations remain high, and the risks of recession or stagflation could lead to prolonged market corrections. As a result, we maintain an overweight position in European equities, and focus on sectors with stronger defensive characteristics like global healthcare. Our sector strategy reflects the current macroeconomic environment. For the US, we are underweight in consumer sectors, industrials and materials due to concerns over an economic slowdown. Conversely, we are overweight in healthcare, financials and utilities, which offer relative stability. Recent additions have brought us to an overweight position in communication services, information technology and energy. From a currency perspective, the euro and yen are increasingly favoured as portfolio diversifiers, replacing the US dollar. The euro, in particular, benefits from sound fundamentals and attractive yields in investment-grade bonds, which we continue to favour despite tight spreads. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up China's slowing growth and rising risks China's economy, despite a strong start to the year with Q1 GDP growth of 5.4 per cent, faces significant challenges ahead. Growth projections for Q2 and Q3 have been revised down to 4 per cent and below, largely driven by the anticipated collapse of US-China trade and weakening global demand. The steep decline in new export orders, reflected in April's PMI, signals ongoing headwinds for China's export-oriented industries, including consumer electronics, tech hardware and apparel. These pressures are expected to weigh on employment and domestic sentiment, with additional risks stemming from rising geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties. While we anticipate some easing of US tariffs, not all the damage to China's economy can be reversed. Domestically oriented sectors, such as toll roads, banks and real estate, may appear more resilient but are not immune to the broader slowdown. Chinese banks and property developers face mounting challenges, and while stimulus measures may offer limited reprieve, structural issues persist. Strategic repositioning in Asia Amid these challenges, certain markets in Apac stand out for their resilience and potential. Japan remains our highest conviction market, benefiting from low valuations, strong earnings recovery trends and higher share buybacks. The moderate rate-hike expectations in Japan have lifted a significant overhang, making its market more attractive. Subordinated debt from Japanese insurers, alongside Indonesian and Indian credit, offers compelling opportunities due to strong domestic fundamentals. Singapore and Malaysia are well-positioned to gain market share, while Thailand could benefit from potential deals. Singapore stands out with its unique economic zone with Johor, offering leverage in a multipolar world. Meanwhile, Indonesia faces challenges from external headwinds and domestic policy uncertainty. For equities, we favour domestic demand-oriented defensives such as utilities, staples, telecoms, Reits and healthcare in China, India, Japan and Korea. These sectors have demonstrated resilience during recent market volatility and offer protection against ongoing trade frictions. On the other hand, export-focused businesses face significant challenges due to rising trade uncertainties. In China, high-quality tech names with solid capital discipline present selective opportunities despite valuations near the higher end of their five-year range. The Chinese bond market also offers appeal, particularly USD-denominated bonds, which have outperformed in recent months. High-yield opportunities in Chinese properties remain attractive, as surviving names typically have proven access to capital markets and loans. However, investment-grade names in China are relatively expensive. Capital flow dynamics in Apac Two major trends are shaping the broader capital flow picture: the repatriation of emerging market (EM) capital from the US and the eventual return of US capital to global markets, particularly EMs. While the latter is expected to be a multi-year process, the repatriation of EM capital is already benefiting markets like Korea, which has significant ownership of US equities. India, meanwhile, is well-positioned to attract fresh diversification flows from the US, where it remains under-owned. Other markets in Asia, such as Singapore, the Philippines, and Vietnam, also stand to benefit. Singapore's trade-dependent economy is supported by market reforms, and its stocks often outperform during bear markets. Rate-sensitive real estate stocks, particularly Singapore-focused Reits, could gain from defensible domestic income streams. The Philippines, with its domestic consumption-driven economy and strengthening peso, is relatively well-positioned for a global trade slowdown. Vietnam, while facing complexities, could see catalysts for inflows through ongoing trade talks, a potential deal, and an upgrade from frontier to EM status. Asia in 2025: opportunity or risk? In the short term, market attention will remain focused on the risks posed by US tariff policy, a potential US recession and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. These factors contribute to a cautious sentiment among investors who are closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape and its impact on global trade. The interplay between these elements will likely dictate market movements and investor confidence in the near future. However, the long-term outlook for Asia is more optimistic, as capital reallocation trends take shape. The region's economic resilience and growth potential are underpinned by several key factors. First, China's ability to address consumer confidence issues will play a pivotal role in sustaining its economic momentum. Measures to boost domestic consumption and stabilise the housing market are expected to be critical in this regard. Second, India's revival of private capital expenditure is expected to drive significant economic growth. The government's focus on infrastructure development and policy reforms aimed at improving the business environment are likely to attract both domestic and foreign investments. For investors, this underscores the importance of a selective and adaptable approach to navigating the region's evolving landscape. Identifying sectors and companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these macroeconomic trends will be crucial. Additionally, understanding the unique challenges and opportunities within each market will enable investors to make informed decisions and optimise their portfolios. Apac's investment landscape is undeniably complex, shaped by global headwinds, structural shifts and regional dynamics. While challenges persist, there are selective opportunities for investors who can navigate this environment with a strategic and flexible approach. The writer is chief investment officer Apac, DWS
Fibre2Fashion
3 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China records 5.8% industrial growth in May, 6.3% in Jan-May period
China's value-added industrial output of major enterprises, whose annual primary business revenue reaches or exceeds 20 million yuan (~$2.79 million), rose by 5.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 0.61 per cent compared to April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Within key sectors, manufacturing output increased by 6.2 per cent, while mining expanded by 5.7 per cent. Equipment manufacturing saw a robust 9 per cent YoY growth, 3.2 percentage points (pp) higher than the overall industrial average. High-tech manufacturing followed closely, up by 8.6 per cent—2.8 pp faster than the broader industrial sector. China's industrial sector grew 5.8 per cent year-on-year in May, led by high-tech and equipment manufacturing. Manufacturing and mining rose 6.2 and 5.7 per cent, respectively. Cumulative value added rose 6.3 per cent over Januaryâ€'May. Industrial profits reached 2.12 trillion yuan (~$295.26 billion). Despite steady gains, the NBS urges continued innovation amid external and domestic challenges. Over the January-May period, the cumulative value added by large industrial enterprises climbed by 6.3 per cent YoY. Business sentiment showed marginal improvement as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged up to 49.5 per cent in May, a 0.5-point rise from April. Meanwhile, the production and operation expectation index reached 52.5 per cent, increasing by 0.4 pp. Profits of industrial enterprises with annual revenues above 20 million yuan totalled 2.12 trillion yuan (~$295.26 billion) in the first four months of 2025, marking a 1.4 per cent annual increase. The industrial sector displayed resilience and potential, supported by ongoing structural upgrades and targeted policy measures, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said. He emphasised strong gains in high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and clean energy sectors, which are driving long-term transformation. However, Fu also cautioned about persistent external uncertainties and domestic pressures, calling for sustained efforts to enhance innovation and ensure high-quality development, as per Chinese media reports. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
