Oil fall, stocks rise as IranIsrael war fears ease

Stocks rose and oil prices retreated yesterday as fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased even as Israel and Iran pounded each other with missiles for a fourth day.
The dollar and safe-haven gold declined slightly.
"As things stand, investors seem less fearful than they were going into the weekend of the possibility that the war between Israel and Iran spreads across the Middle East, and beyond," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at financial services provider Trade Nation.
"It appears that most of the Israeli airstrikes and missile launches avoided the most significant parts of Iran's energy infrastructure. And so far Iran's retaliation has done relatively little damage," he added.
Wall Street opened in the green, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq up around one% in early deals, while London, Paris and Frankfurt were all higher in afternoon trading.
That tracked gains in Asia, where Tokyo closed up 1.3%, boosted by a weaker yen, while Hong Kong and Shanghai also advanced.
Israel's surprise strike against Iranian military and nuclear sites on Friday -- killing top commanders and scientists -- sent crude prices soaring as much as 13% at one point on fears about supplies from the region.
However, concerns over the conflict spreading appeared to have eased, with both main oil contracts retreating by more than 1% on Monday.
Analysts said the recent decision by the OPEC+ group of crude producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to raise output again in July also played a role.
"Financial markets are very good at absorbing geopolitical risk, and OPEC+'s supply boost is also helping to cushion the blow," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.
"There may need to be a major escalation in the conflict before we get another sharp upswing in oil and gold prices," she added.
Analysts had warned that the spike could send inflation surging globally again, dealing a blow to long-running efforts by governments and central banks to get it under control.
Investors were gearing up for monetary policy decisions this week from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
All are expected to stand pat but traders will be keeping a close watch on their statements for clues on interest-rate outlooks, with US officials under pressure from President Donald Trump to cut borrowing costs.

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Gulf Insider

7 hours ago

• Gulf Insider

Oil Prices Extend Losses As Iran Rejects Zero Enrichment As Condition For US Talks

A series of headlines, some contradictory, on where things stand with Iran nuclear negotiations with the US, sent oil sliding, then pumping, then extending losses again. One senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is 'ready' to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment, while a quick follow-up headline said 'zero enrichment will undoubtedly be rejected' by Iran 'especially now, under Israel's strikes.' The official said 'the role of European powers is now more prominent, as Tehran is unwilling to engage with US amid Israeli attacks. After that glimmer of hope offered for negotiations, the clarification that nothing has in fact change, sent oil dropping further Friday morning. Oil prices declined on Friday but stayed on track for a third straight weekly increase, following the White House's postponement of a decision regarding US participation in the Israel-Iran conflict: Brent crude futures were down $2.57, or around 3.3%, to $76.28 a barrel by 1204 GMT but still set to gain nearly 3% on the week. According to the latest from Bloomberg: Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to 'unconditionally' stop Israel. And Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has clarified just before meeting European officials in Geneva related to EU efforts at mediate that 'Iran is not prepared for negotiations with anyone while Israel continues its attacks.' More Friday and overnight headlines… * * * Geopolitics: Middle East War Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to 'unconditionally' stop Israel, according to Bloomberg E3/EU-Iran meeting in Geneva expected to occur 'this afternoon', via WSJ's Norman. Israeli Defence Minister Katz has ordered the military to increase attacks on Iranian regime targets within Tehran. Iran's Foreign Minister says they will only hold nuclear talks in the E3 meeting. Russia's Kremlin says dialogue with Ukraine continues expect to agree next week on a date for the next round of talks Ukraine is unpredictable, continue 'special military operation', though would prefer to reach goals by diplomatic needs. US Involvement The White House said, 'message directly from the President – based on the fact that there is a significant chance of negotiations with Iran in the near future – I will make a decision on whether to launch [an attack] in the next two weeks.' US President Trump had been briefed on both the risks and benefits of bombing Fordow and his mindset was that disabling it was necessary due to the risk of weapons being produced in a relatively short period of time, according to CBS. Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source, reported that the US had asked Israel to defer its attack on the Fordow nuclear facility. Kann News reported that there was a 'possible attack at Fordow': according to sources, the US had asked Israel to wait until negotiations with Iran had been exhausted. US President Trump is to attend a National Security Meeting at 11:00 EDT on Friday. US law enforcement officials had stepped up surveillance of Iran-backed operatives in the US, according to CBS sources. The White House said Iran was able to produce a nuclear bomb within 'a couple of weeks'. A White House official told Fox's Heinrich that the US military had no doubt about the efficacy of bunker busters in eliminating the site at Fordow, and also denied that any options—including tactical nuclear weapons—had been taken off the table. The White House Press Secretary said there were no signs that China was getting involved militarily in Iran, according to Reuters. The US reportedly believed Iran would build a nuclear bomb if Supreme Leader Khamenei were assassinated and the Fordow facility was attacked, according to The New York Times. Strikes There were reports of Israeli strikes in the Lavizan area of Tehran, where Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was reportedly hiding in a bunker, according to i24 journalist Stein. An Israeli military spokesman said Israel had attacked the special forces headquarters of the internal security apparatus in Tehran within the last 24 hours, according to Reuters. Journalist Horowitz said on X that opposition sources were circulating 'unconfirmed' reports claiming that the head of Iran's military, Abdolrahim Mousavi, had been killed in an Israeli strike. The Fars News Agency said Iran had used a new generation of precision missiles in its attack on Israel on Thursday morning, according to Fars. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry said an explosion had occurred on Thursday evening in Tel Aviv at the residence of the Norwegian ambassador to Israel, according to Reuters. The Jordanian army said an explosives-laden drone had fallen in the Azraq area after it 'fell short of its range,' according to Al Hadath. Iranian media reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Al Arabiya. Diplomacy Britain, France, and Germany are to hold talks with Iran's Foreign Minister on Friday in a last-ditch effort to avert an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and a possible US intervention, according to FT. Iran's Foreign Minister had reached out to European foreign ministers, requesting a meeting with them on Friday, Jerusalem Post reported. Trump administration officials are pitching the president's two-week timeline as an opportunity to allow diplomacy to play out. Special Envoy Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi had been in communication in recent days, though there were no plans for the two to meet yet, according to ABC. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff will not attend the UK/France/Germany talks with Iran in Geneva on Friday, according to White House officials cited by NBC. An Iranian source denied reports of a phone call between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US presidential envoy Witkoff following Israel's aggression, according to Iran Nuances. The White House Press Secretary said they would see how the EU meeting with the Iranians went tomorrow, according to Reuters. US officials said no date had been set for a meeting between US and Iranian officials yet, according to Axios. US Military and Deployment Over the next 10 to 14 days, there were expected to be two aircraft carriers in the Middle East and a third operating in the Mediterranean Sea, according to ABC. Iranian Actions A senior IRGC official said that before the Israeli airstrikes, all enriched uranium had been transferred from the nuclear sites to secret hiding locations, according to i24 journalist Stein. Iran's Tasnim News Agency, quoting an Iranian official, said intelligence had thwarted a major Israeli plot against Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi in Tehran, according to Sky News Arabia. Iraq's Hezbollah threatened to target US bases and close the Strait of Hormuz if Washington joined strikes on Iran, according to Al Hadath. An Israeli official said Iran could likely sustain the current rate of missile fire at Israel for up to five months, provided their missile launchers were not destroyed, according to NBC. Israel anticipated attacks from Iran's proxies across the Middle East, according to Israel Channel 14. An Israeli intelligence official said the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime was far from the truth, according to NBC. Geopolitics: Other A Japanese destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait after a Chinese jet approached it, according to Nikkei. China President Xi met with New Zealand PM Luxon in Beijing, according to CCTV.

Gulf Insider

8 hours ago

• Gulf Insider

White House Says Trump To Decide On Attacking Iran 'Within Next 2 Weeks'

The White House held a high stakes presser Thursday afternoon, as President Donald Trump also again convened his top national security officials in the situation room to hear intelligence officials and make key decisions on the Israel-Iran war, just prior. Of course, the biggest question that remains is: will the US directly enter the war against Iran? White House quoting Trump: 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.' Leavitt: Trump thinks 'substantial chance' of Iran negotiations Leavitt: Witkoff has been in touch with Iran Leavitt: Trump always interested in diplomatic solutions Leavitt: it's the US belief that Iran has never been closer to a nuclear weapon Leavitt: Iran can and should make a deal or face consequences Leavitt: Trump remains in contact with Netanyahu Leavitt: Iran is in a weakened position and we have sent a deal Leavitt: Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon, it just needs a 'decision' Oil slides on the 'two weeks' announcement, as the can gets kicked down the road: The most pressing issues at stake: Netanyahu has said the US has been 'helping a lot' – without defining specifics Last ditch diplomacy working? Reuters reports in a breaking development that Iran held direct talks with US over de-escalation and potentially restarting nuclear negotiations. The Guardian reports that Trump only wants to strike Iran only if the US can destroy the Fordow enrichment facility. Destruction of Fordow would at least require the 30k pound bunker buster bomb, but still may not be effective in ending Iran's enrichment capacity. Netanyahu says that while regime change in Tehran is not the current goal, the option is on the table. Tactical nuke on the table? Will the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off global oil shipping? Reports of US bases in the region taking protective and defensive measures Israeli intelligence official says 'imminent collapse' of Iranian government is 'far from the truth' – NBC reports Iran is warning that a 'third party intervention' would spark an immediate military response. Donald Trump has suggested to defense officials it would make sense for the US to launch strikes against Iran only if the so-called 'bunker buster' bomb was guaranteed to destroy the critical uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Trump was told that dropping the GBU-57s, a 13.6-tonne (30,000lb) bomb would effectively eliminate Fordow but he does not appear to be fully convinced, the people said, and has held off authorizing strikes as he also awaits the possibility that the threat of US involvement would lead Iran to talks. The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump's term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried. Tactical nukes now? And there's much, much more that needs to be considered. Likely full American military entry in to the war would spiral into full regime change in Iran. What comes next? Iran as a society is much larger, and with an even more complex ethnic division than neighboring Iraq… and we all remember the pandora's box and US 'forever war' very well. Soon after Saddam's toppling came the rise of ISIS and hellish decade-plus long Syrian proxy war. Have the politicians already forgotten? (or more likely they don't care…) Adding to the chaos would be the IRGC likely closing the vital Strait of Hormuz – which would send oil prices skyrocketing. By the day's end we are likely to find out whether Trump will stick by being negotiator in chief… or war hawk in chief… will he listen to the likes of Tulsi Gabbard and Tucker Carlson, or to Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin? Meanwhile… CNN put together a clip of Tulsi Gabbard testifying recently that "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon" followed by Trump saying "I don't care what she said" — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 18, 2025 As Israel's war with Iran nears the end of its first week, each side continued to inflict destruction from above in Thursday's opening hours. In a development certain to be exploited by proponents of US intervention, the largest hospital in southern Israel reportedly received 'extensive' damage after suffering a hit from an Iranian ballistic missile. Meanwhile, defying warnings of radiation dangers from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Israeli Air Force bombed Iran's Arak heavy water reactor, even though Iran modified it pursuant to the 2015 nuclear deal to make it incapable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. In its initial retaliatory strikes on Israel, Iran had largely confined its missile barrages to the night. However, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) observed significant success in evading Israel's highly-hyped Iron Dome, Iranian barrages are now increasingly coming in broad daylight, as they did on Thursday morning in a 30-missile strike that caused dozens of injuries, six of them severe: One of Iran's missiles struck Soroka Hospital in the southern city of Beersheba, with health officials saying the explosion caused extensive damage along with injuries. Iran said the missile was aimed at a nearby Israeli military intelligence facility; the Times said the nearest military facility it knows of is over two kilometers away. Verified by the Times , this video captures the sound of the thunderous explosion blast and the huge mushroom cloud that rose up from the impact at the hospital: Israeli President Isaac Herzog emphasized that the hospital has a staff of 'Jews and Arabs work[ing] side by side…caring for Israelis of all faiths and our neighbors the Palestinians.' Thanks in large part to a Wednesday evacuation of the floor that was struck, no fatalities have been reported at the hospital, and only minor injuries. Israeli officials quickly condemned the attack. 'The missile fired toward Soroka Medical Center is an act of terror and crosses a red line,' Health Minister Uriel Buso told Times of Israel . Israeli critics will be quick to point out Israel's enormously destructive campaign in Gaza has damaged or destroyed 94% of the hospitals in the territory. The Iranian barrage also caused major damage in the major city of Ramat Gan, an important business and educational hub just 5 kilometers east of Tel Aviv. With many modern skyscrapers, Ramat Gan has been nicknamed 'the Manhattan of Israel.' Some of those shiny skyscrapers were shattered on Thursday morning, as two people were seriously injured: On the other side of the war map, Israeli bombs and missiles rained down on Iran, with the Israeli military announcing 40 fighter jets hit dozens of facilities, including the Arak heavy water reactor, and a facility in Natanz that Israel claims Iran is using to develop a nuclear weapon. In March, the US intelligence community said it continues to conclude that, true to its decades of assurances, Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. Ironically, Israel's attack on Arak helps draw attention to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal that Trump withdrew the United States from in 2018, sowing the seeds of the war that's raging today. In compliance with that deal, Iran filled the heavy water reactor core with cement so it would be incapable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. Other JCPOA modifications were also in progress at the Arak facility. In announcing its Thursday strike, the IDF even referred to it as the 'inactive nuclear reactor in Arak' — which only helps underscore the fact that the original nuclear deal was fully achieving its purpose, and it was only discarded in deference to Israel and its Western collaborators looking for a false pretense for war, one that's astonishingly similar to the one used for the disastrous invasion of Iraq. Earlier in the day, Israel had warned Iranians to evacuate from the vicinity of the reactor, using social media posts that featured satellite imagery of the facility in a red circle. However, Israel's warning came after reports that Iranians were enduring a near-total loss of internet access more than 12 hours at the last report. The outage was reportedly the work of the Iranian government; the New York Times said the move was likely motivated in part by fear of Israeli cyberattacks. Earlier this week, Israel's US ambassador cryptically promised 'some surprises on Thursday night and Friday that will make [Israel's explosive-beeper] operation [in Lebanon] almost seem simple.'

Daily Tribune

9 hours ago

• Daily Tribune

Maersk halts stops in Israel's Haifa due to Iran-Israel conflict

TDT | Manama *Danish shipping giant Maersk announced Friday that it was temporarily suspending vessel calls in Israel's Haifa port due to the country's conflict with Iran. Maersk said it made the decision after "careful analysis of threat risk reports in the context of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, specifically regarding the potential risks of calling Israeli ports and the ensuing implications for the safety of our vessel crews". "At the moment we are not experiencing further disruptions to our scheduled operations in the region," it added in a statement. The conflict erupted a week ago when Israel launched air strikes on Iran, saying its arch foe was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.